Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:48 pm Post subject: Lebron and the All-Time Scoring Record
One of the stat guys at ESPN tried to project Lebron's chances of passing Kareem for the all-time scoring lead. As you would expect, it isn't likely to happen, though it isn't quite impossible.
I am posting this more for the intellectual exercise than for any commentary on Lebron. Even a superstar who got started at 18 and has been remarkably healthy really isn't on track to catch Kareem. This is a reminder of how high that mountain is.
Quote:
As far as James passing Malone, favorite toy [a Bill James-based projection system] sees that as basically a toss-up, with a 52 percent chance of happening. And, as you'd expect from the projected total, favorite toy makes James a slight underdog to surpass Abdul-Jabbar, giving him a 39 percent chance of becoming the NBA's top scorer ever.
Quote:
If James' career played out exactly as projected [by the SCHOENE projection model], here's when he might reach various milestones.
April 2017: James passes O'Neal.
February or March 2018: James reaches 30,000 career points.
February 2019: James passes Wilt Chamberlain (31,419 points).
November 2019: James passes Jordan.
April 2020: James passes Bryant.
March or April 2021: James becomes the third player to 35,000 career points.
February 2023: James passes Karl Malone.
November 2024: James passes Abdul-Jabbar to become the NBA's all-time leading scorer.
The SCHOENE projection has James finishing with 38,991 points, 604 more than Abdul-Jabbar.
Of course, when we start projecting so far into the future -- tacking an additional nine seasons on James' career, including the current one -- forecasting becomes exponentially more difficult.
Major injuries are impossible to predict. When he reached 30,000 points at age 34, Bryant seemed to have an excellent chance of reaching 35,000 points and passing Malone for second all time. Lo and behold, after rupturing his Achilles late that same season, Bryant scored just 2,026 points before retiring.
So basically he would have to play until he was 40 with no major injuries.
Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:06 pm Post subject: Re: Lebron and the All-Time Scoring Record
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
One of the stat guys at ESPN tried to project Lebron's chances of passing Kareem for the all-time scoring lead. As you would expect, it isn't likely to happen, though it isn't quite impossible.
I am posting this more for the intellectual exercise than for any commentary on Lebron. Even a superstar who got started at 18 and has been remarkably healthy really isn't on track to catch Kareem. This is a reminder of how high that mountain is.
Quote:
As far as James passing Malone, favorite toy [a Bill James-based projection system] sees that as basically a toss-up, with a 52 percent chance of happening. And, as you'd expect from the projected total, favorite toy makes James a slight underdog to surpass Abdul-Jabbar, giving him a 39 percent chance of becoming the NBA's top scorer ever.
Quote:
If James' career played out exactly as projected [by the SCHOENE projection model], here's when he might reach various milestones.
April 2017: James passes O'Neal.
February or March 2018: James reaches 30,000 career points.
February 2019: James passes Wilt Chamberlain (31,419 points).
November 2019: James passes Jordan.
April 2020: James passes Bryant.
March or April 2021: James becomes the third player to 35,000 career points.
February 2023: James passes Karl Malone.
November 2024: James passes Abdul-Jabbar to become the NBA's all-time leading scorer.
The SCHOENE projection has James finishing with 38,991 points, 604 more than Abdul-Jabbar.
Of course, when we start projecting so far into the future -- tacking an additional nine seasons on James' career, including the current one -- forecasting becomes exponentially more difficult.
Major injuries are impossible to predict. When he reached 30,000 points at age 34, Bryant seemed to have an excellent chance of reaching 35,000 points and passing Malone for second all time. Lo and behold, after rupturing his Achilles late that same season, Bryant scored just 2,026 points before retiring.
So basically he would have to play until he was 40 with no major injuries.
Yeah, no margin of error for topping Kareem -- you need to stay productive and healthy til a ripe old age. Karl Malone looked like he was sailing along, virtually ever missing a game for decades, and then wham.
I'm actually surprised Malone didn't come back for one more season. He only needed 80 games at 18 ppg to go over Kareem.
It's hard to envision Lebron playing 8 more seasons.
The guy just seems like he's made of titanium. I think what will hamper him more is the fact that he's going to pull back a bit on the scoring with guys like Kyrie next to him. He's currently "coasting" to a 20 point near triple double average.
I don't see it. Remember he's played the equivalent of several full seasons worth of playoff games. _________________ From 2-10 to the Western Conference Finals
I don't see it. Remember he's played the equivalent of several full seasons worth of playoff games.
It just depends on how long he wants to go. Kobe played pretty much a similar number of playoff games and he was within striking distance if the ACL didn't do him in. I'm not saying he'll get there, but the # of playoff games won't stop him imo. If Kobe was healthy, his last 3 years @ 18 points a game (pretty much roll out of bed for him) and he'd have gotten there. Personally it was a given Kobe would have taken it if he didn't get hit by the Achilles.
At the beginning of the season when he was 31, Kobe had 23,820 points. Lebron is close to 27,000. Againt, I think what will stop him is him scoring 20/game here on out since they'll probably still win the East with him doing that.
Durant hit a bit of a rough patch with his foot injury but he was chugging along at 2,200 points a season. It's almost too easy for him to get 2000. Him on GSW is the most effortless 30/game I've ever seen.
Obviously the biggest caveat is staying healthy. Kareem/Kobe/Malone/LEbron were remarkably healthy for nearly their entire careers but we see how one catastrophic injury can end it all.
I don't see it. Remember he's played the equivalent of several full seasons worth of playoff games.
It's not really clear if additional playoff games have any impact on career longevity, though.
Lots of people imagine that the human body is like a machine that suffers "wear and tear" the more it's used. However, unlike machines, the body can regenerate and repair damage. And more and more scientists are rejecting the whole notion of "wear and tear" in terms of the body.
I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but we really have no idea if playing 20 additional playoff games year after year has a positive, neutral or negative effect on career longevity.
I don't think Lebron will play that long simply because it's unprecedented for anyone to play that long.
I've been expecting Lebron to slow down for seasons now and he has still been phenomenal. The guy's athleticism and size makes it seem like an injury is inevitable with him, but he has been really healthy for his career.
I think this all depends on Lebron's teammates how well he does. The way he scores now won't age well late into his career. He needs to play with teammates who can get him the ball in great scoring opportunities, and the offense would have to run through him a certain amount of time. I think he would have to develop more of a post game if his scoring abilities are going to age. Him being ball dominant at the top of the key and facing up in his late 30s I don't think is a recipe for scoring success.
Its funny when you think about Malone and Jabbar, they both played with two of the greatest point guards of all time, who regularly looked for them to score in half court sets. I think Malone benefited more, personally, but I think playing with Magic helped to lengthen Jabbar's effectiveness later in his career.
I've been expecting Lebron to slow down for seasons now and he has still been phenomenal. The guy's athleticism and size makes it seem like an injury is inevitable with him, but he has been really healthy for his career.
I think this all depends on Lebron's teammates how well he does. The way he scores now won't age well late into his career. He needs to play with teammates who can get him the ball in great scoring opportunities, and the offense would have to run through him a certain amount of time. I think he would have to develop more of a post game if his scoring abilities are going to age. Him being ball dominant at the top of the key and facing up in his late 30s I don't think is a recipe for scoring success.
Its funny when you think about Malone and Jabbar, they both played with two of the greatest point guards of all time, who regularly looked for them to score in half court sets. I think Malone benefited more, personally, but I think playing with Magic helped to lengthen Jabbar's effectiveness later in his career.
You're right about the guards -- Stockton and Magic spoon-fed Malone and Kareem a lot of points.
Joined: 25 Jul 2013 Posts: 9577 Location: Salem, OR
Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:54 pm Post subject:
With Kyrie molding into the role of the alpha scorer, I don't see Lebron passing Kareem. Even now, granted it's early in the season, he's down to 20.5 PPG, while Kyrie is all the way up to 26.8 PPG and Love is averaging 21 PPG.
With Kyrie molding into the role of the alpha scorer, I don't see Lebron passing Kareem. Even now, granted it's early in the season, he's down to 20.5 PPG, while Kyrie is all the way up to 26.8 PPG and Love is averaging 21 PPG.
Yeah, Lebron is taking 4 fewer shots and dishing out 3 more shots a game this year compared to last year so far. Seems to be working -- they are the #1 offense right now,
Joined: 25 Jul 2013 Posts: 9577 Location: Salem, OR
Posted: Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:22 pm Post subject:
activeverb wrote:
The Logo wrote:
With Kyrie molding into the role of the alpha scorer, I don't see Lebron passing Kareem. Even now, granted it's early in the season, he's down to 20.5 PPG, while Kyrie is all the way up to 26.8 PPG and Love is averaging 21 PPG.
Yeah, Lebron is taking 4 fewer shots and dishing out 3 more shots a game this year compared to last year so far. Seems to be working -- they are the #1 offense right now,
Yeah he's definitely not declining, he's averaging near a triple double on 50% shooting and he's accepting that Kyrie is going to be the alpha scorer on the team and letting Love get a few more shots. In his later years, I see his scoring going down, but his efficiency being in the Miami years with the assist numbers being relatively the same.
I've been expecting Lebron to slow down for seasons now and he has still been phenomenal. The guy's athleticism and size makes it seem like an injury is inevitable with him, but he has been really healthy for his career.
I think this all depends on Lebron's teammates how well he does. The way he scores now won't age well late into his career. He needs to play with teammates who can get him the ball in great scoring opportunities, and the offense would have to run through him a certain amount of time. I think he would have to develop more of a post game if his scoring abilities are going to age. Him being ball dominant at the top of the key and facing up in his late 30s I don't think is a recipe for scoring success.
Its funny when you think about Malone and Jabbar, they both played with two of the greatest point guards of all time, who regularly looked for them to score in half court sets. I think Malone benefited more, personally, but I think playing with Magic helped to lengthen Jabbar's effectiveness later in his career.
I noticed LeBron struggled to score in the half court (relative to his normal performance) against the Warriors, especially with Bogut in the game. Ever since his jump shot left him, his half court shot creation has suffered immensely. He just dialed it up another notch on defense and in transition. He needs to get his jump shot back if he's going to reach Kareem IMO
With Kyrie molding into the role of the alpha scorer, I don't see Lebron passing Kareem. Even now, granted it's early in the season, he's down to 20.5 PPG, while Kyrie is all the way up to 26.8 PPG and Love is averaging 21 PPG.
Yeah, Lebron is taking 4 fewer shots and dishing out 3 more shots a game this year compared to last year so far. Seems to be working -- they are the #1 offense right now,
Yep. That's what I said earlier that was the biggest obstacle to Lebron getting the title (sans the obvious health). I just think he's able to go 20/10/10 and let Kyrie get his and they still dominate the East and cruise to the Finals.
I've been expecting Lebron to slow down for seasons now and he has still been phenomenal. The guy's athleticism and size makes it seem like an injury is inevitable with him, but he has been really healthy for his career.
I think this all depends on Lebron's teammates how well he does. The way he scores now won't age well late into his career. He needs to play with teammates who can get him the ball in great scoring opportunities, and the offense would have to run through him a certain amount of time. I think he would have to develop more of a post game if his scoring abilities are going to age. Him being ball dominant at the top of the key and facing up in his late 30s I don't think is a recipe for scoring success.
Its funny when you think about Malone and Jabbar, they both played with two of the greatest point guards of all time, who regularly looked for them to score in half court sets. I think Malone benefited more, personally, but I think playing with Magic helped to lengthen Jabbar's effectiveness later in his career.
I noticed LeBron struggled to score in the half court (relative to his normal performance) against the Warriors, especially with Bogut in the game. Ever since his jump shot left him, his half court shot creation has suffered immensely. He just dialed it up another notch on defense and in transition. He needs to get his jump shot back if he's going to reach Kareem IMO
Coincidentally, his jumper came back in games 4 and 5. Game 5 he went 4-8 from 3 and followed that up with 3-6 in Game 6. Cavs put up 115 and 112 in those games and tbh, it was more of their offense that utterly soul snatched the Warriors. Game 7 his shot wasn't quite there but at that point the Warriors no longer gave him the Rondo treatment and changed the dynamics of what he was able to do. In any event, that Game 7 was a defensive battle was expected as I can't recall a game 7 that wasn't in 30+ years of watching. It was seriously fascinating how once his shot came back though, it was pretty much GG.
It's not really clear if additional playoff games have any impact on career longevity, though.
Lots of people imagine that the human body is like a machine that suffers "wear and tear" the more it's used. However, unlike machines, the body can regenerate and repair damage. And more and more scientists are rejecting the whole notion of "wear and tear" in terms of the body.
I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but we really have no idea if playing 20 additional playoff games year after year has a positive, neutral or negative effect on career longevity.
I don't think Lebron will play that long simply because it's unprecedented for anyone to play that long.
On the wear and tear point, I know what you're talking about. However, I'm not sold on the argument as applied to athletes. Part of the problem is the term "wear and tear," which is sort of a loose description of what we're talking about. There are parts of the body that do not regenerate. Knee and back injuries generally do not heal. When athletes are competing at a high level, they tend to pick up a lot of little injuries that they just play through. But the injuries don't always go away. We even see recurring muscular injuries, either because athletes don't let the injuries heal properly or because the muscle does not fully heal for other reasons. And when players compensate for the little injuries, that can lead to bigger injuries.
If you play an extra 20 games per year at a high level of intensity (in other words, playoff basketball), the odds are pretty good that you're going to pick up some of those little injuries. Kobe played 220 playoff games, which is almost 3 extra seasons of NBA basketball at an especially intense level. That had to take a toll. In a sense, every professional athlete is one step away from a catastrophic knee injury -- we've seen this happen on simple, routine plays (Shaun Livingston). Kobe had 220 extra opportunities to take that bad step. It finally caught up with him, and then everything just went downhill.
So yeah, maybe "wear and tear" isn't the best way to put it. It isn't just the mileage. It's all of the road hazards along the way.
Obviously the biggest caveat is staying healthy. Kareem/Kobe/Malone/LEbron were remarkably healthy for nearly their entire careers but we see how one catastrophic injury can end it all.
As I said in my original post, this shows exactly how high the mountain is when it comes to Kareem's record. He went to college, so he basically spotted Lebron four years. The game pace was higher during his career, and Kareem's game was more focused on scoring than Lebron's. Still, he spotted him four freaking years, and Lebron only has a theoretical chance of catching him.
We went through the same discussions about Kobe. It was going to take a miraculous finish to Kobe's career for him to get close to Kareem. Of course, that didn't happen.
Obviously the biggest caveat is staying healthy. Kareem/Kobe/Malone/LEbron were remarkably healthy for nearly their entire careers but we see how one catastrophic injury can end it all.
As I said in my original post, this shows exactly how high the mountain is when it comes to Kareem's record. He went to college, so he basically spotted Lebron four years. The game pace was higher during his career, and Kareem's game was more focused on scoring than Lebron's. Still, he spotted him four freaking years, and Lebron only has a theoretical chance of catching him.
We went through the same discussions about Kobe. It was going to take a miraculous finish to Kobe's career for him to get close to Kareem. Of course, that didn't happen.
That is one seriously tall mountain, folks.
Yeah,Kareem could have some into the league as an 18-year-old and conceivably had 8,000-10,000 more points.
One of the weird things about Lebron being in this chase is he's really more of facillitator than a scorer, though he scores a lot.
In the very unlikely event he plays long enough to go over Kareem in scoring, he could also end up #3 in assists. The guy is a freakin stat machine.
Obviously the biggest caveat is staying healthy. Kareem/Kobe/Malone/LEbron were remarkably healthy for nearly their entire careers but we see how one catastrophic injury can end it all.
As I said in my original post, this shows exactly how high the mountain is when it comes to Kareem's record. He went to college, so he basically spotted Lebron four years. The game pace was higher during his career, and Kareem's game was more focused on scoring than Lebron's. Still, he spotted him four freaking years, and Lebron only has a theoretical chance of catching him.
We went through the same discussions about Kobe. It was going to take a miraculous finish to Kobe's career for him to get close to Kareem. Of course, that didn't happen.
That is one seriously tall mountain, folks.
Yeah,Kareem could have some into the league as an 18-year-old and conceivably had 8,000-10,000 more points.
One of the weird things about Lebron being in this chase is he's really more of facillitator than a scorer, though he scores a lot.
In the very unlikely event he plays long enough to go over Kareem in scoring, he could also end up #3 in assists. The guy is a freakin stat machine.
Obviously the biggest caveat is staying healthy. Kareem/Kobe/Malone/LEbron were remarkably healthy for nearly their entire careers but we see how one catastrophic injury can end it all.
As I said in my original post, this shows exactly how high the mountain is when it comes to Kareem's record. He went to college, so he basically spotted Lebron four years. The game pace was higher during his career, and Kareem's game was more focused on scoring than Lebron's. Still, he spotted him four freaking years, and Lebron only has a theoretical chance of catching him.
We went through the same discussions about Kobe. It was going to take a miraculous finish to Kobe's career for him to get close to Kareem. Of course, that didn't happen.
That is one seriously tall mountain, folks.
Yeah,Kareem could have some into the league as an 18-year-old and conceivably had 8,000-10,000 more points.
One of the weird things about Lebron being in this chase is he's really more of facillitator than a scorer, though he scores a lot.
In the very unlikely event he plays long enough to go over Kareem in scoring, he could also end up #3 in assists. The guy is a freakin stat machine.
Joined: 24 Dec 2007 Posts: 35855 Location: Santa Clarita, CA (Hell) ->>>>>Ithaca, NY -≥≥≥≥≥Berkeley, CA
Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:11 pm Post subject:
What's strange is that people used to use longevity in Kobe vs. LeBron debates to argue that Kobe would have the better career. But if you count seasons at 20+ PPG with 50 or more games played...
Kobe had 14.
LeBron has 13 already not including this season.
So if LeBron holds up for a few more years, he actually had significantly more longevity. _________________ Damian Lillard shatters Dwight Coward's championship dreams:
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