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DuncanIdaho
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 Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:57 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | tox wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | I don't see why Kim would publicly pursue nuclear capabilities, unless he's aiming to use them. He already has us at a checkmate. His position is secure.
We can't attack N. Korea TODAY! If we try to attack North Korea or kick Kim out of power. S. Korea (and the American's living there/deployed there) will have to pay the repercussions.
Kim doesn't need nukes just to keep his power. We can't topple his regime now. Even though we probably want to. Keeping Seoul hostage is keeping Kim in power. Not his nuclear program. |
Insurance? Especially if/when China is ready for regime change. It's the mother of all trump cards.
Or maybe that the threat of a nuke will allow them to be more aggressive w.r.t. SK, because now every time the US wants to intercede, it needs to consider whether it's worth a nuke potentially hitting them stateside. Hurts our presence in Asia/ the Pacific. |
You're right. A nuclear weapon does give them leverage.
It tough for me to say definitively Kim wants a nuke just so he can use it as a threat.
I take him literally when he says he wants to use weapons.
Maybe if someone could explain to me how Kim would be acting different than he is now, if he really wanted to use a nuke in the future. Then I'd understand.
In any circumstance where a threat is made. It's tough to tell if the aggressor means it, until he actually performs the act.
If someone threatened me personally, I'd take the person's word for it. Until proven otherwise.
Also, I don't think Kim is concerned about mutual assured destruction. That's why he's comfortable parading his nuclear program to the world in the first place. |
This is the right way to approach KJE who is more aggressive and ambitious than his father - his first goal is regime survival, but he has not forgotten the endgame his grandfather sought, which is reunification and removal of the "imperialist American basterds" from the peninsula (and possibly East Asia all together). A nuclear DPRK gives the WPK leadership leverage while they further undermine regional and global stability, and it gives KJE an end game to go out in a blaze of glory 30-40 years from now.
I don't mean to come across as exceedingly hawkish about what is essentially an unwinnable situation, but the idea that KJE gets nuclear weapons and spends the next 3-4 decades not trying to get cash through nuclear proliferation, not trying to antagonize the ROK with conventional, small-scale assaults, and not ultimately launching a nuclear weapon against the U.S. and/or one of its regional allies over the next 3-4 decades is fanciful thinking, imo. Hopefully 1) missile defense systems improve significantly in that time, and 2) China's leadership decides to intervene at some point to help keep KJE's nuclear ambitions in check.
We shall see. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? It's obvious, barring a huge trade war, that our efforts to put pressure on China have done absolutely nothing. |
What you don't do is throw gasoline on the dumpster fire, pound your chest like a gorilla and embarrass yourself and the nation on the world stage. How about we start with that?
And how about we actually fill the empty ambassador positions in South Korea and other Asian countries? And how about we not gut the state department so that we have no knowledge base or experience and no diplomats left to establish diplomacy?
How about we start there instead of putting ourselves in a bigger hole? |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? It's obvious, barring a huge trade war, that our efforts to put pressure on China have done absolutely nothing. |
What you don't do is throw gasoline on the dumpster fire, pound your chest like a gorilla and embarrass yourself and the nation on the world stage. How about we start with that?
And how about we actually fill the empty ambassador positions in South Korea and other Asian countries? And how about we not gut the state department so that we have no knowledge base or experience and no diplomats left to establish diplomacy?
How about we start there instead of putting ourselves in a bigger hole? |
That sounds like a great idea.
But just to be clear, we had filled ambassador positions and diplomats last administration, handled NK with as much dignity as can possibly be expected, and they STILL pursued nuclear arms and we're now in a much worse place.
So yes, we should do what you say, but it isn't the answer. Diplomacy DOES NOT WORK WITH NORTH KOREA. I don't know what the answer is, honestly. I don't envy the people making these decisions.
We've been doing the same thing administration after administration, and have been getting the same results. If it doesn't work on the first, second, third or fourth time, maybe it'll work on the fifth? |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:09 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:11 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:14 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck? |
Ha! I don't expect policymakers to rely on luck, but luck will probably play a part whether we want to acknowledge it or not: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41314948 |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| I also agree that what Trump did today didn't help at all with any solution to the problem. Brinksmanship with an unstable actor like Kim Jong-un won't work like it did with the USSR. Trump is definitely not Nixon. |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:17 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck? |
Ha! I don't expect policymakers to rely on luck, but luck will probably play a part whether we want to acknowledge it or not: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41314948 |
Touché!
There's also this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Arkhipov
It's honestly amazing we got through the Cold War. |
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lakersken80
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Joined: 12 Aug 2009
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:17 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Good luck with that...A guy who snuffs out his brother with a hitjob and his uncle with heavy artillery isn't exactly a guy who is into diplomacy. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
Not to mention one missed intercept means millions dead. The solution is bad to worst. |
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Lucky_Shot
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Joined: 10 Jan 2016
Posts: 5140
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
Not to mention one missed intercept means millions dead. The solution is bad to worst. |
There are no military solution to North Korea only economic and diplomatic solutions now. This isn't some two bit terrorist organization in the middle east its a nation with real arms. Want to see the end of the world as we know it start a war with NK.
Say goodbye to Seoul Tyoko and Hong Kong. By 2018 they should be able to strike us so we would have to act fast if you only want asia destroyed in the war.
Last edited by Lucky_Shot on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Roon
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Joined: 29 Sep 2012
Posts: 1816
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:42 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
Yes, considering the alternatives are pretty clear, and that's the destruction of Seoul and devastating instability in the region, it's fine.
Their goal is to stay in power. I am not convinced in the slightest Kim wants to attempt reunify Korea, that would lead to a much quicker death.
Any real external threat will be met with retaliation. The only way this situation can be resolved is with an internal NK threat. Which will take awhile.
In the meantime, espionage and propaganda for the offensive. Appeasement and damage control for the defensive. Throw in some of the rumored sabotage for their projects as well.
It's a terrible situation, so you either play the long game and take the kicks, the extortion, the posturing, or you play Trump's game. Which involves the genocide of the NK people and most likely hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths to the SK. |
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DuncanIdaho
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Joined: 26 Apr 2004
Posts: 17246
Location: In a no-ship
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
Yes, considering the alternatives are pretty clear, and that's the destruction of Seoul and devastating instability in the region, it's fine.
Their goal is to stay in power. I am not convinced in the slightest Kim wants to attempt reunify Korea, that would lead to a much quicker death.
Any real external threat will be met with retaliation. The only way this situation can be resolved is with an internal NK threat. Which will take awhile.
In the meantime, espionage and propaganda for the offensive. Appeasement and damage control for the defensive. Throw in some of the rumored sabotage for their projects as well.
It's a terrible situation, so you either play the long game and take the kicks, the extortion, the posturing, or you play Trump's game. Which involves the genocide of the NK people and most likely hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths to the SK. |
I agreed with this tactic up until they started testing long-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. It wasn't a big deal when they had (bleep) rockets that always failed. I'm not sure this game still works when LA and other US cities are in range.
They're already flying over Japan. What happens when they launch a test missile over US territory?
Last edited by DuncanIdaho on Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:48 am; edited 1 time in total |
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lakersken80
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Joined: 12 Aug 2009
Posts: 38776
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:47 am Post subject: |
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| Lucky_Shot wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
Not to mention one missed intercept means millions dead. The solution is bad to worst. |
There are no military solution to North Korea only economic and diplomatic solutions now. This isn't some two bit terrorist organization in the middle east its a nation with real arms. Want to see the end of the world as we know it start a war with NK. |
North Korea is what we call a Kobayashi Maru situation for those that are familiar with Star Trek. Its a no win situation whatever action or inaction you take. |
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Baron Von Humongous
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Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:53 am Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Good luck with that...A guy who snuffs out his brother with a hitjob and his uncle with heavy artillery isn't exactly a guy who is into diplomacy. |
"You can't deal with a madman who gasses his own people! WMDs!"
The problems this time - China has said a preemptive strike would draw them into war, the whole massive death and destruction to a regional ally thing (and the crippling of the world's 14th largest economy), and hopefully the collective public shame many Americans still feel at blowing up the Middle East - will hopefully continue to keep this administration at bay long enough until more creative, intelligent, rational folks who take over 45's mess can seek diplomatic, multilateral solutions that use the stability of the region as a strength rather than as a hindrance to more classic U.S. gunship diplomacy.
As an aside, I wonder if the xenophobes in this administration will lift the proposed refugee cap for all the North and South Koreans this orange buffoon is about to displace (not too neglect the massive number of casualties), or will fear of the spread of Juchejui be trumped up reason enough to block all refugees from the peninsula coming to the U.S.? |
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Roon
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Joined: 29 Sep 2012
Posts: 1816
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
Yes, considering the alternatives are pretty clear, and that's the destruction of Seoul and devastating instability in the region, it's fine.
Their goal is to stay in power. I am not convinced in the slightest Kim wants to attempt reunify Korea, that would lead to a much quicker death.
Any real external threat will be met with retaliation. The only way this situation can be resolved is with an internal NK threat. Which will take awhile.
In the meantime, espionage and propaganda for the offensive. Appeasement and damage control for the defensive. Throw in some of the rumored sabotage for their projects as well.
It's a terrible situation, so you either play the long game and take the kicks, the extortion, the posturing, or you play Trump's game. Which involves the genocide of the NK people and most likely hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths to the SK. |
I agreed with this tactic up until they started testing long-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. It wasn't a big deal when they had (bleep) rockets that always failed. I'm not sure this game still works when LA and other US cities are in range.
They're already flying over Japan. What happens when they launch a test missile over US territory? |
It raises the stakes, but hardly changes the game. It changes their good hand to a better one, but it's still their last play, and for them, their last play will always be a losing one.
So you keep them playing. We cannot kowtow, but strategically give them wins, take some "Ls". Some carrot and some stick.
This is seriously not a job for Trump. We need this guy out of office. |
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lakersken80
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Joined: 12 Aug 2009
Posts: 38776
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:15 am Post subject: |
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| Lucky_Shot wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
Not to mention one missed intercept means millions dead. The solution is bad to worst. |
There are no military solution to North Korea only economic and diplomatic solutions now. This isn't some two bit terrorist organization in the middle east its a nation with real arms. Want to see the end of the world as we know it start a war with NK.
Say goodbye to Seoul Tyoko and Hong Kong. By 2018 they should be able to strike us so we would have to act fast if you only want asia destroyed in the war. |
If Hong Kong were a target I don't think North Korea would last long...... |
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Lucky_Shot
Star Player
Joined: 10 Jan 2016
Posts: 5140
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:26 am Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Lucky_Shot wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | | Roon wrote: | | DuncanIdaho wrote: | Not saying the tactic Trump is taking is the right one, but what we've done since Clinton hasn't exactly worked swimmingly, has it?
So what's the solution? |
Seoul is still standing and we are not at war with N. Korea or any of their allies.
It's gone fine. |
It's gone so well that NK is now testing long-range nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
Totally fine. /rollseyes
Kicking the can down the road has bought us 25 years and gotten us into a worse situation. Can't keep kicking the can.
So what's the long-term solution? |
This a false, teleological interpretation of history that normalizes regime change in the DPRK as the only viable solution. The "simple" solution is to cut the gordion knot with military action, but the goal should be a peaceful diplomatic solution which requires expertise, creativity, talent, luck, and patience. If it was easy enough that policy rubbernuckers like most of us here could crowdsource it in a day, I assume it would've been proposed among career diplomats and bureaucrats already.
But antagonizing and threatening the DPRK and Kim Jong-un at the U.N. seems to be the least productive way to go about it unless one is trying to prepare the world for the inevitable U.S. preemptive assault on a sovereign nation. |
Are we prepared to protect LA, Seattle, San Francisco and eventually every major US city with luck?
I agree though, a diplomatic solution is obviously the best. Nobody wants a military solution. The current NK regime just seems so much more unstable than prior ones though that I don't know if there is one, especially as long as China continues to sit on its hands. |
Not to mention one missed intercept means millions dead. The solution is bad to worst. |
There are no military solution to North Korea only economic and diplomatic solutions now. This isn't some two bit terrorist organization in the middle east its a nation with real arms. Want to see the end of the world as we know it start a war with NK.
Say goodbye to Seoul Tyoko and Hong Kong. By 2018 they should be able to strike us so we would have to act fast if you only want asia destroyed in the war. |
If Hong Kong were a target I don't think North Korea would last long...... |
China has the same problem SK has M.A.D.
I dont see why he would spare China.
Last edited by Lucky_Shot on Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:41 am; edited 2 times in total |
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governator
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Joined: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 25076
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:27 am Post subject: |
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| N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
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Baron Von Humongous
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:39 am Post subject: |
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| governator wrote: | | N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
China likes to prop itself up as non-interventionist, so it'd be interesting to see how they'd get to the point of regime change. |
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Lucky_Shot
Star Player
Joined: 10 Jan 2016
Posts: 5140
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | governator wrote: | | N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
China likes to prop itself up as non-interventionist, so it'd be interesting to see how they'd get to the point of regime change. |
Yeah China does have the best chances of stopping Kim by stopping trade but man is that a roll of the dice. Still better than a military solution. |
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Baron Von Humongous
Retired Number
Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| Lucky_Shot wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | governator wrote: | | N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
China likes to prop itself up as non-interventionist, so it'd be interesting to see how they'd get to the point of regime change. |
Yeah China does have the best chances of stopping Kim by stopping trade but man is that a roll of the dice. Still better than a military solution. |
Agreed, and its unlikely China even gets to that point in time. *sigh* |
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governator
Retired Number
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 25076
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Lucky_Shot wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | governator wrote: | | N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
China likes to prop itself up as non-interventionist, so it'd be interesting to see how they'd get to the point of regime change. |
Yeah China does have the best chances of stopping Kim by stopping trade but man is that a roll of the dice. Still better than a military solution. |
Agreed, and its unlikely China even gets to that point in time. *sigh* |
Just hope Trump is not looking for a big splash by doing crazy bargain with China, like throwing Taiwan under the table for N.Korea |
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Baron Von Humongous
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Joined: 02 Jul 2015
Posts: 32979
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:20 pm Post subject: |
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| governator wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Lucky_Shot wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | governator wrote: | | N. Korea has to be fixed by China. China has to be able to change the regime (prob to a communist-capitalist gov't like itself) while simultaneouly China and S.Korea have to be willing to absobs millions of refugees. Unfortunately for US, this way means that a unified Korea would def not be in the near future, South still our ally while the north will be 100% under China's influence but at least it will have much more stability compare to the Kim family emperorship. |
China likes to prop itself up as non-interventionist, so it'd be interesting to see how they'd get to the point of regime change. |
Yeah China does have the best chances of stopping Kim by stopping trade but man is that a roll of the dice. Still better than a military solution. |
Agreed, and its unlikely China even gets to that point in time. *sigh* |
Just hope Trump is not looking for a big splash by doing crazy bargain with China, like throwing Taiwan under the table for N.Korea |
It beats WWIII, but Trump is such a terrible deal-maker that he'd probably throw Taiwan, Tibet, and the South China Sea in to get a win. |
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