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yinoma2001
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 Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 11:23 am Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | Another way of looking at the stats in the previously posted analysis:
| Quote: | John Harwood (@) JohnJHarwood
the blue wave of 2018 in a nutshell:
Republicans carried white evangelical Christians by 53 percentage points
Democrats carried everyone else by 34 points
white evangelical Christians are only one-fourth of the electorate |
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I've been voting Dems for a few elections but I think you're seeing a lot more of previously centrist GOP folks who have abandoned that party in droves and are voting Dem. |
I think there are a lot of 2016 Trump voters that are gettable in 2020. |
I live in a blue state, so that's that.
Question is how many electoral votes can be won over. Just getting more popular votes from blue states isn't going to cut it. Dems need to win the Mid West to unseat him.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | Another way of looking at the stats in the previously posted analysis:
| Quote: | John Harwood @ JohnJHarwood
the blue wave of 2018 in a nutshell:
Republicans carried white evangelical Christians by 53 percentage points
Democrats carried everyone else by 34 points
white evangelical Christians are only one-fourth of the electorate |
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I've been voting Dems for a few elections but I think you're seeing a lot more of previously centrist GOP folks who have abandoned that party in droves and are voting Dem. |
I think there are a lot of 2016 Trump voters that are gettable in 2020. |
I live in a blue state, so that's that.
Question is how many electoral votes can be won over. Just getting more popular votes from blue states isn't going to cut it. Dems need to win the Mid West to unseat him. |
We need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. That gives us 279 electoral votes, in addition to all the states Hillary won. And it's not really about persuading Republicans to vote Democratic in those states, it's persuading Democrats/progressives that didn't vote for Hillary to vote for the next Democratic nominee. Trump winning those three states was a fluke and he won them by a margin that can fit in a football stadium. Democrats just dominated those three states a week ago so I think we're doing just fine there. It's about continuing that momentum to 2020 and the Democrats will be favored to win there.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah. The popular vote is great, but the way the Constitution framed it, it's the electoral college. I don't think the GOP will win the popular vote again for a while regardless. So if I'm running the Dem party, you absolutely target those states and get them back to blue. It's the Midwest dummy.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:53 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know why Trump would really want to run in 2020 except vanity. It's obvious he hates being president, can barely stand to do a couple of ceremonial things a day, he gets embarrassed daily, the Democrats in the House are going to make his life miserable, and he would much rather watch TV, tweet and play golf. He could do himself and all of us a favor and just not run.
Or maybe he thinks it's the only way to stave off indictment. What a campaign slogan. Vote for me because so they can't indict me! |
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: |
We need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. |
Or Pennsylvania and Florida is another route.
Losing Ohio for the foreseeable future really hurts. Barack won Ohio both times. But now Trump has united non college educated white people to such a degree. That state isn't in play anymore.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Wilt wrote: |
We need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. |
Or Pennsylvania and Florida is another route.
Losing Ohio for the foreseeable future really hurts. Barack won Ohio both times. But now Trump has united non college educated white people to such a degree. That state isn't in play anymore. |
Voter suppression tactics (and Russian Facebook propaganda) depressed the vote in the those swing states. With Democrats back in control of state government in those states, they should be able to reverse the outcome just by restoring voting rights. The number of votes suppressed (compared to 2012) exceeded Trump's margin of victory. Yes, you still have to turn out the electorate, but you won't also have to overcome Republican cheating (see Florida and Georgia this election cycle). |
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VicXLakers
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | I don't know why Trump would really want to run in 2020 except vanity. It's obvious he hates being president, can barely stand to do a couple of ceremonial things a day, he gets embarrassed daily, the Democrats in the House are going to make his life miserable, and he would much rather watch TV, tweet and play golf. He could do himself and all of us a favor and just not run.
Or maybe he thinks it's the only way to stave off indictment. What a campaign slogan. Vote for me because so they can't indict me! |
How about this offer when things start getting tight...
If he agrees to not run for any office again we will NOT criminally prosecute him and will allow him to leave the country with his wealth  |
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splashmtn
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:55 pm Post subject: |
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| VicXLakers wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | I don't know why Trump would really want to run in 2020 except vanity. It's obvious he hates being president, can barely stand to do a couple of ceremonial things a day, he gets embarrassed daily, the Democrats in the House are going to make his life miserable, and he would much rather watch TV, tweet and play golf. He could do himself and all of us a favor and just not run.
Or maybe he thinks it's the only way to stave off indictment. What a campaign slogan. Vote for me because so they can't indict me! |
How about this offer when things start getting tight...
If he agrees to not run for any office again we will NOT criminally prosecute him and will allow him to leave the country with his wealth |
I'm down for that ONLY IF...He can't come back...EVER.
What did vin rhynes say again? Well apply that to Trump and switch out L.A. and put in USA. |
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splashmtn
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Wilt wrote: |
We need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. |
Or Pennsylvania and Florida is another route.
Losing Ohio for the foreseeable future really hurts. Barack won Ohio both times. But now Trump has united non college educated white people to such a degree. That state isn't in play anymore. |
Yes it is.
Any state with large cities are in play. any states with a ton of college campuses are surely in play. because this is where the youth live. You get them to come out and vote and you can trump the uneducated whites vote. |
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Bol
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:02 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | I don't know why Trump would really want to run in 2020 except vanity. It's obvious he hates being president, can barely stand to do a couple of ceremonial things a day, he gets embarrassed daily, the Democrats in the House are going to make his life miserable, and he would much rather watch TV, tweet and play golf. He could do himself and all of us a favor and just not run.
Or maybe he thinks it's the only way to stave off indictment. What a campaign slogan. Vote for me because so they can't indict me! |
Isn't that pretty much the only reason he ever does anything? I don't think he can help himself. I doubt he has the capacity for actual happiness, but he's addicted to all the attention and the adulation of his followers. I'm sure he'll run again if he can. |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Bol wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | I don't know why Trump would really want to run in 2020 except vanity. It's obvious he hates being president, can barely stand to do a couple of ceremonial things a day, he gets embarrassed daily, the Democrats in the House are going to make his life miserable, and he would much rather watch TV, tweet and play golf. He could do himself and all of us a favor and just not run.
Or maybe he thinks it's the only way to stave off indictment. What a campaign slogan. Vote for me because so they can't indict me! |
Isn't that pretty much the only reason he ever does anything? I don't think he can help himself. I doubt he has the capacity for actual happiness, but he's addicted to all the attention and the adulation of his followers. I'm sure he'll run again if he can. |
He's also way too narcissistic to get embarrassed by anything. If he makes it through this term, and he will, he'll just be more driven.
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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We can say good bye to the notion of Avenatti running (fortunately):
MICHAEL AVENATTI
ARRESTED FOR FELONY DOMESTIC VIOLENCE
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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Laker_Town
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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Trump is going to whip up a tweet storm on avenatti.
Such a shi show |
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Surfitall
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Location: South Orange County
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:40 pm Post subject: |
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What an idiot. |
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Huey Lewis & The News
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Location: So what's the uh...topic of discussion?
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Aussiesuede
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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Welp, that entertaining Presidential bid got stopped before it ever started. Melania better keep an eye open at night lest the Donald takes this as license to prove that he could choke her out on 5th Ave and his Republicans would still vote for him. Avenatti doesn't get the benefit of that type of loyalty from Democrats. Choking out, or killing somebody is a certain disqualifier...
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I'm On point, On task, On message, and Off drugs. A Streetwise Smart Bomb, Out of rehab and In denial. Over the Top, On the edge, Under the Radar, and In Control. Behind the 8 ball, Ahead of the Curve and I've got a Love Child who sends me Hate mail. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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Christ, the comments to that article...always the same toxic bs, but i can't help but look |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Huey Lewis & The News wrote: |
I dislike Avenatti but something doesn't add up. |
That's what I thought when I read the headline, but he doesn't dispute that it happened: "She hit me first".
Pretty much a confession.
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | We can say good bye to the notion of Avenatti running (fortunately): |
Fortunately indeed!
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nickuku
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1062856614657515520
Would not be surprised that this is a smear campaign by conservatives.
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Last edited by nickuku on Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:32 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| nickuku wrote: | | https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1062856614657515520 |
"We were initially told by our sources the alleged victim was Avenatti's estranged wife. We now know it was not. The incident involved a different woman."
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You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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Heartburn
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 4:58 pm Post subject: |
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Avenatti served his purpose. I personally liked that a Dem finally took the action to the GOP, but his delusions of grandeur did him in.
I suspect there's some kind of a smear campaign going on here but I'm glad we can put him behind us and focus on real candidates. He does nothing for Dem credibility going forward. Drop him and move on.
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Heartburn wrote: | Avenatti served his purpose. I personally liked that a Dem finally took the action to the GOP, but his delusions of grandeur did him in.
I suspect there's some kind of a smear campaign going on here but I'm glad we can put him behind us and focus on real candidates. He does nothing for Dem credibility going forward. Drop him and move on. |
My thought as well. However, setup or not, he obviously screwed up and took the bait. Glad he revealed himself to be a total fool before he was able to get too far into a presidential bid.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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ChefLinda
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Posts: 24165
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| If a screenwriter turned in a script of the last 2 years, it would be rejected as too unbelievable. Donald Trump has sucked the nation into the worst reality show ever. |
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ContagiousInspiration
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Huey Lewis & The News wrote: |
I dislike Avenatti but something doesn't add up. |
One of Trumps biggest enemies and has intelligence and balls to talk any trash to PoTrash45..
I will hold judgement but this sounds like hit job to me.. plain and simple.. |
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