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LarryCoon
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Joined: 11 Aug 2002
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 Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | In fairness, hundreds of people die every day from crashes with human drivers. The threshold for robot drivers shouldn't be zero. |
Correct -- the standard should be deaths per N miles driven. Robot drivers are far lower already.
Likewise, nuclear is far safer than the alternatives (especially the newer, fourth-gen plants).
As for the "what happens when robots replace Job X" argument, again, as I said, you can't ignore the malleability of the workforce, and you can't simply project the current job preparation processes to the future. The job market will be different in the future, and the workforce will adapt.
You could make the argument that the job market will be so radically different that the work force CANNOT adapt -- i.e., that there will be too few jobs for humans, or the jobs that exist will require levels of education/preparation that will be guaranteed to leave out a large percentage of the potential workforce. That would be a bigger problem, and some seem to be assuming that this is inevitable. But I've seen nothing (other than fear, and extrapolating from present conditions) to indicate that this is true.
And I'm also curious about proposed remedies, even if it is true. Does the government become one big union, protecting workers' jobs from being replaced by automation? |
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Surfitall
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Joined: 12 Feb 2002
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Location: South Orange County
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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| vanexelent wrote: | https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-21/universal-basic-income-backers-harm-their-case-with-bad-arguments
| Quote: | The problem is, there’s no indication that automation is going to make human workers redundant anytime soon. Technologists probably tend to believe in automation-induced job loss because they’re familiar with the inventions that are constantly forcing people to change what they do for a living. But even as these new technologies have been rolled out, the fraction of Americans with jobs has remained about the same over time. Meanwhile, evidence that automation causes job losses throughout the economy is slim.
In other words, automation so far shows no sign of having the kinds of effects Yang claims are imminent. The dire-sounding number Yang cites from McKinsey should be given little credence. Studies like this simply ask engineers how many existing jobs could be done by machines; even if the engineers’ guesses are right, they fail to say how many new jobs will be created in the process, so they don’t give any picture of technology’s overall impact on the labor market.
Thus, when UBI proponents make the dubious claim that basic income is necessary to save people from the rise of the robots, they undermine their case. They also send the message that they think a huge percent of American workers are simply too useless to be gainfully employed in the future -- hardly an appealing message. |
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Yang does cite studies from Bain and McKinsey. They generally do more sophisticated analysis than simply asking engineers how many jobs could be done by machines. Chapter three of the McKinsey study is actually dedicated to talking specifically about how many new jobs will be created in the process, which makes me question whether the author of the Bloomberg article even glanced at the studies. Here are links to the actual studies if anyone would like to read them for themselves:
https://www.bain.com/insights/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality/
link |
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Surfitall
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Joined: 12 Feb 2002
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Location: South Orange County
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Surfitall wrote: | | Truck driving alone is the most common job in 29 states with 3.5 million drivers – 94 percent of them male – and an additional 12 million workers supporting them in truck stops and motels across the country. What happens when the trucks start to drive themselves? |
Interesting addition that is irrelevant to the point. So what's your point? Should we be more concerned because the industry is male oriented?
Trucking/Transportation is one of the most unionized jobs out there. Expect a battle there. And from a liability standpoint, millions of trucks "self-driving" completely autonomously, especially in dense population areas is highly unlikely. I totally understand why people point to automation as an "inevitability". But this total doom and gloom aspect to it is more scare tactics than practical thinking. |
Hah, no, I was actually posting a snippet from Yang’s site, realized I had to run and hit submit because I thought it’d be relevant to the discussion anyway. I have no idea why they mentioned it’s a male dominated field on their site. |
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Wilt
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Joined: 29 Dec 2002
Posts: 13730
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Surfitall wrote: |
Hah, no, I was actually posting a snippet from Yang’s site, realized I had to run and hit submit because I thought it’d be relevant to the discussion anyway. I have no idea why they mentioned it’s a male dominated field on their site. |
Maybe that's who the campaign targets? 
Granted, I haven't met many Yang supporters (probably no more than 10), but they've all been males.
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DaMuleRules
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Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | Surfitall wrote: |
Hah, no, I was actually posting a snippet from Yang’s site, realized I had to run and hit submit because I thought it’d be relevant to the discussion anyway. I have no idea why they mentioned it’s a male dominated field on their site. |
Maybe that's who the campaign targets?
Granted, I haven't met many Yang supporters (probably no more than 10), but they've all been males. |
Now that you mention it, in person or otherwise, I don't recall seeing any female support for Yang. That's not to say it doesn't exist, nor is it meant as a slight against him.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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greenfrog
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | Surfitall wrote: |
Hah, no, I was actually posting a snippet from Yang’s site, realized I had to run and hit submit because I thought it’d be relevant to the discussion anyway. I have no idea why they mentioned it’s a male dominated field on their site. |
Maybe that's who the campaign targets?
Granted, I haven't met many Yang supporters (probably no more than 10), but they've all been males. |
I think this is true based on the polling demographics I've seen, but it wasn't anymore lopsided than women supporting Kamala. |
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greenfrog
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| Posted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Wilt wrote: | | Surfitall wrote: |
Hah, no, I was actually posting a snippet from Yang’s site, realized I had to run and hit submit because I thought it’d be relevant to the discussion anyway. I have no idea why they mentioned it’s a male dominated field on their site. |
Maybe that's who the campaign targets?
Granted, I haven't met many Yang supporters (probably no more than 10), but they've all been males. |
Now that you mention it, in person or otherwise, I don't recall seeing any female support for Yang. That's not to say it doesn't exist, nor is it meant as a slight against him. |
I just read Alyssa Milano is YangGang or Yang Curious or something. |
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Hector the Pup
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Joined: 25 Jul 2002
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Location: L.A.
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 5:19 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | "A lot of you are in the real estate business because I know you very well, you’re brutal killers. You're not nice people at all, but you have to vote for me. You have no choice,” |
My response to this would break the profanity filter.
This is the (bleep) president going full bore antisemite. The idiot doesn't even bother with dog whistles. This is a (bleep) bullhorn. |
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ribeye
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Hector the Pup
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:29 am Post subject: |
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I'm not sure which of those idiots is worse but they both make me sad. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:13 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | Surfitall wrote: | | Truck driving alone is the most common job in 29 states with 3.5 million drivers – 94 percent of them male – and an additional 12 million workers supporting them in truck stops and motels across the country. What happens when the trucks start to drive themselves? |
Interesting addition that is irrelevant to the point. So what's your point? Should we be more concerned because the industry is male oriented?
Trucking/Transportation is one of the most unionized jobs out there. Expect a battle there. And from a liability standpoint, millions of trucks "self-driving" completely autonomously, especially in dense population areas is highly unlikely. I totally understand why people point to automation as an "inevitability". But this total doom and gloom aspect to it is more scare tactics than practical thinking. |
The reason Yang points out the dominance of males in the trucking industry, and he covers this (though perhaps not on his site) is because of data that shows that for men, as a result of joblessness, their time playing video games goes up, volunteering declines even though they have more time, drug use goes up, antisocial and self-destructive behaviors go up. Women tend to be the opposite of that and adapt to the loss of a job much better than men who adapt very poorly according to the data.
Also, someone had mention automated trucking in dense population areas. He covers this as well suggesting that the first wave of automation in trucking will not be that. But rather, the more straight line interstate type of trucking and a human would take over once it reaches densely populated areas. The main thing about automation that he stresses, is that it isn’t a cliff but more of a gradual erosion.
I’m out, been following Yang quite a bit, so just wanted to clarify that. |
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kikanga
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Location: La La Land
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | In fairness, hundreds of people die every day from crashes with human drivers. The threshold for robot drivers shouldn't be zero. |
I think of all the times I've driven where not following the rules avoided an accident. Jaywalking pedestrians, people running 4 way stops or reds, pulling onto the shoulder when someone doesn't see me and almost hits me while merging lanes, animals running into the road and dodging them, (the opposite) running over a skunk because if I slammed on the brakes the car behind me would've rear ended me.
Will be interesting to see how automated drivers will handle those situations. Like all tech, I'm sure it'll improve with each generation.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:59 am Post subject: |
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AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
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greenfrog
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
I don't believe she did either, but does that matter? |
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kikanga
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ContagiousInspiration
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Joined: 07 May 2014
Posts: 13823
Location: Boulder ;)
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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| greenfrog wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
I don't think she cared if Amazon located there or not.
She didn't want to give billions in tax breaks to anyone especially the richest man on Earth.
She was harassed by Republicans laying the blame at her feet because she felt the tax breaks for billionaires are not a good idea. |
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Wilt
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Joined: 29 Dec 2002
Posts: 13730
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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I wish someone would play all the clips from a few years ago when he led a filibuster and called Obama's administration "lawless" and "corrupt" and many other things, and then list the top 10 cases of lawlessness and corruption in the Trump administration and then see how he embarrasses himself even further by defending the man who accused his dad of killing Kennedy and his wife of being ugly.
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DaMuleRules
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Location: Making a safety stop at 15 feet.
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ContagiousInspiration wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
I don't think she cared if Amazon located there or not.
She didn't want to give billions in tax breaks to anyone especially the richest man on Earth.
She was harassed by Republicans laying the blame at her feet because she felt the tax breaks for billionaires are not a good idea. |
Exactly. What she advocated for wasn't some "long con" where NY stands up to Amazon thinking they would come crawling back.
It was about making the statement that the NY wasn't going to subsidize a mega-corporation like Amazon.
_________________
You thought God was an architect, now you know
He’s something like a pipe bomb ready to blow
And everything you built that’s all for show
goes up in flames
In 24 frames
Jason Isbell
Man, do those lyrics resonate right now |
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ContagiousInspiration
Franchise Player
Joined: 07 May 2014
Posts: 13823
Location: Boulder ;)
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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Claremont United Methodist Church
211 W Foothill Blvd, Claremont, CA 91711
Has the right take on the nativity
https://m.facebook.com/ClaremontUMC/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/church-nativity-depicts-jesus-mary-joseph-family-separated-border-n1097891
| Quote: | In a statement posted by the minister, Karen Clark Ristine, the church said that after fleeing a tyrant king, Jesus, Mary and Joseph became “the most well-known refugee family in the world.”
“What if this family sought refuge in our country today?” the church said. “Imagine Joseph and Mary separated at the border and Jesus no older than two taken from his mother and placed behind the fences of a Border Patrol detention center.” |
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ContagiousInspiration
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Joined: 07 May 2014
Posts: 13823
Location: Boulder ;)
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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^^^At the bottom of that article is some really horrible BS about Trump's asylum system
Sure seems there should be an International Police Force regarding treatment of Asylum seekers
| Quote: |
Earlier this year, the administration launched a new effort aimed at keeping asylum seekers in Mexico while they await court proceedings in the United States.
Last week, the nonprofit group Human Rights First said it had documented 636 reports of rape, kidnapping, torture and other violent crimes against migrants who have been returned to Mexico under the program.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/church-nativity-depicts-jesus-mary-joseph-family-separated-border-n1097891 |
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Surfitall
Star Player
Joined: 12 Feb 2002
Posts: 3829
Location: South Orange County
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:05 am Post subject: |
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Thought provoking, and frankly sad and depressing article in Rolling Stone about why the Christian Right worships Donald Trump.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/christian-right-worships-donald-trump-915381/
You want to know why his support is unwavering even in the face of everything he has done, and will continue to do? Because none of it matters as long as he supports the wedge issues against abortion, gay marriage, Etc., that put him on the right side “what god wants”.
Christopher Hitchens was right. |
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ChefLinda
Moderator
Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 24166
Location: Boston
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:12 am Post subject: |
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| Surfitall wrote: | Thought provoking, and frankly sad and depressing article in Rolling Stone about why the Christian Right worships Donald Trump.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/christian-right-worships-donald-trump-915381/
You want to know why his support is unwavering even in the face of everything he has done, and will continue to do? Because none of it matters as long as he supports the wedge issues against abortion, gay marriage, Etc., that put him on the right side “what god wants”.
Christopher Hitchens was right. |
A toxic brew of patriarchy, white supremacy, intolerance and hypocrisy. |
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Omar Little
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Posts: 90306
Location: Formerly Known As 24
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:16 am Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | ContagiousInspiration wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
I don't think she cared if Amazon located there or not.
She didn't want to give billions in tax breaks to anyone especially the richest man on Earth.
She was harassed by Republicans laying the blame at her feet because she felt the tax breaks for billionaires are not a good idea. |
Exactly. What she advocated for wasn't some "long con" where NY stands up to Amazon thinking they would come crawling back.
It was about making the statement that the NY wasn't going to subsidize a mega-corporation like Amazon. |
And iirc, the end result is a much smaller operation than the original plan.
_________________
“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” ― Elie Wiesel |
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ribeye
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Joined: 10 Nov 2001
Posts: 12632
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | DaMuleRules wrote: | | ContagiousInspiration wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | AOC has more than earned her stripes thus is more than worthy of re-eletion.
AOC, Sanders Say I Told You So, as Amazon Comes to NYC with No Taxpayer Funded Giveaways
| Quote: | | Amazon signed a lease for 335,000 square feet in the Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, enough space for more than 1,500 workers. So Amazon is coming to NYC without $3 billion of incentives paid for by NYC and NY state taxpayers, no publicly financed helipad for Jeff Bezos, no Queens residents or small businesses being pushed out, no neighborhoods destroyed (Hudson Yards is an already existing development on the Manhattan waterfront). Emphasis mine. |
This has to considered a major accomplishment.
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1203093051859750912 |
Did she ever argue or predict they would come back without the tax breaks? |
I don't think she cared if Amazon located there or not.
She didn't want to give billions in tax breaks to anyone especially the richest man on Earth.
She was harassed by Republicans laying the blame at her feet because she felt the tax breaks for billionaires are not a good idea. |
Exactly. What she advocated for wasn't some "long con" where NY stands up to Amazon thinking they would come crawling back.
It was about making the statement that the NY wasn't going to subsidize a mega-corporation like Amazon. |
And iirc, the end result is a much smaller operation than the original plan. |
Yes, likely fewer jobs, but because these are jobs for their consumer and advertising teams, they likely will be higher paying.
The locals from the communities involved in, essentially, bribing companies to settle within, should be fully appraised of the costs and benefits (actual and modeled), short and long term. I don't know if happened or not, but I suspect that during their were city/community council meetings, that the sales team for Amazon presented an extremely optimistic picture of the original plan in exchange for the $3B "bribe". |
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