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Baron Von Humongous
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 Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | Sucks that Dems value integrity and decency. Bernie bros probably aren't any worse than Trump supporters in the GOP 2016 primary. I worry if more moderate Dems would support and ride the wave of the far left to the oval office the same way moderate Republicans did with the far right in 2016.
But Trump is bad enough, I think we can unite and turnout enough to get him out of there. Not complaining about the infighting though, that's what primaries are for. |
Clearly many, many Trump supporters were far worse than the worst Bernie Sanders suppirter and legitimately deplorable.
What far right wave? The GOP lost six House seats and two Senate seats in 2016.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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Just saw A.B. Stoddard (conservative journalist) and Steve Schmidt (former Republican) on MSNBC saying that nominating Bernie Sanders will result in electoral disaster for the Democrats. There is no evidence for that, and none of the other people on the panel, some of them progressives, pointed out that there's no evidence for it. It's a bunch of bs. I've said this many times before: the GOP doesn't have enough potential votes for any decisive victory. They can only win a close election in which they cheat. There is no 40 state landslide for Trump against any potential Democratic candidate. It won't happen. Recent history tells us that the GOP will have a very hard time winning the popular vote, let alone a big landslide victory.
Steve Schmidt, who is good at criticizing Trump and nothing else, also said that there's no appetite for socialism in this country. It's a good old scare tactic from the Cold War days. Again, no one on the panel countered that stupid argument.
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jodeke
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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A off the wall query. It's said people eat with their eyes. In that vain does Bernie's appearance hurt him? At times he seems unkempt. Trump's orange hue and comb over didn't make a difference.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | Just saw A.B. Stoddard (conservative journalist) and Steve Schmidt (former Republican) on MSNBC saying that nominating Bernie Sanders will result in electoral disaster for the Democrats. There is no evidence for that, and none of the other people on the panel, some of them progressives, pointed out that there's no evidence for it. It's a bunch of bs. I've said this many times before: the GOP doesn't have enough potential votes for any decisive victory. They can only win a close election in which they cheat. There is no 40 state landslide for Trump against any potential Democratic candidate. It won't happen. Recent history tells us that the GOP will have a very hard time winning the popular vote, let alone a big landslide victory.
Steve Schmidt, who is good at criticizing Trump and nothing else, also said that there's no appetite for socialism in this country. It's a good old scare tactic from the Cold War days. Again, no one on the panel countered that stupid argument. |
You're off on a few points IMO.
The house was won not by progressives against the GOP (something like 0-38), But rather by mainstream to moderate Dems (who grabbed 40 seats). The available Senate seats for pickup are not in blue states, but are in similar territory to the house seats that were won. And those seats are very subject to loss if the top of the ticket is Bernie.
Then there is the presidency itself. I keep seeing all these national poll numbers of Bernie vs Trump, which aren't even as high as the impeachment support, and you didn't see any GOP senators panicking. And why does that second thing matter? Because this isn't a popular vote plebiscite, it's an electoral college matter, and Trump holds significant advantages over Bernie in a number of key swing states, while Bernie is running up huge numbers in states that are going Democratic anyway. And that's while they are actually trying to help him win the nomination (if you want to know why, google what Trump just told a bunch of California donors), because they have a mountain of oppo to go at him with.
It's a disaster if we lose. A potential end of the country as we know it for good disaster. That's huge. And a 300 electoral college vote or more, combined with holding the Senate and maybe taking the House? that's electoral disaster.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | Sucks that Dems value integrity and decency. Bernie bros probably aren't any worse than Trump supporters in the GOP 2016 primary. I worry if more moderate Dems would support and ride the wave of the far left to the oval office the same way moderate Republicans did with the far right in 2016.
But Trump is bad enough, I think we can unite and turnout enough to get him out of there. Not complaining about the infighting though, that's what primaries are for. |
Clearly many, many Trump supporters were far worse than the worst Bernie Sanders suppirter and legitimately deplorable.
What far right wave? The GOP lost six House seats and two Senate seats in 2016. |
Maybe wave is the wrong word.
Just mean to say, Trump appealed to people Romney and McCain couldn't get. And still didn't lose the support of traditional Republicans either.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | A off the wall query. It's said people eat with their eyes. In that vain does Bernie's appearance hurt him? At times he seems unkempt. Trump's orange hue and comb over didn't make a difference. |
I have no plans or fantasies to eat Bernie. Do you?
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non-player zealot
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | A off the wall query. It's said people eat with their eyes. In that vain does Bernie's appearance hurt him? At times he seems unkempt. Trump's orange hue and comb over didn't make a difference. |
Most people don't like their food Bern'd.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: |
You're off on a few points IMO.
The house was won not by progressives against the GOP (something like 0-38), But rather by mainstream to moderate Dems (who grabbed 40 seats). The available Senate seats for pickup are not in blue states, but are in similar territory to the house seats that were won. And those seats are very subject to loss if the top of the ticket is Bernie. |
As they are if anybody else runs. We have no idea how the dynamics will play out in hundreds of races throughout the country, other than we know it won't be a freaking landslide by Trump.
| Quote: | | Then there is the presidency itself. I keep seeing all these national poll numbers of Bernie vs Trump, which aren't even as high as the impeachment support, and you didn't see any GOP senators panicking. And why does that second thing matter? Because this isn't a popular vote plebiscite, it's an electoral college matter, and Trump holds significant advantages over Bernie in a number of key swing states, while Bernie is running up huge numbers in states that are going Democratic anyway. |
I haven't seen any evidence that he has significant advantages over Bernie there. He won the three states he needed to win by 77,000 against a much more unpopular candidate four years ago.
| Quote: | | And that's while they are actually trying to help him win the nomination (if you want to know why, google what Trump just told a bunch of California donors), because they have a mountain of oppo to go at him with. |
As they would have with everybody else. I still can't see this mountain of evidence that the election will be harder to win with Bernie on the ticket compared to others. Biden, for a while, did better against Trump in head to head matchups than others. But even that has changed and he runs the same as Bernie these days.
And maybe we shouldn't be listening to Republicans when they tell us whom we shouldn't nominate. I think they fear Bernie more than they would like to admit.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not turning into a BernieBro. He has certain weaknesses, but they all have their unique weaknesses. It'll be a big challenge whoever is nominated, but to isolate Bernie as a uniquely unelectable candidate is just not true. We have many months of scandals, crises, gaffes, and mistakes from all these candidates, and especially from Trump, which will introduce many unknown dynamics to the race. To predict that certain candidates are more electable than others, considering they're all beating Trump right now, is just silly. We have no idea.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | And maybe we shouldn't be listening to Republicans when they tell us whom we shouldn't nominate. I think they fear Bernie more than they would like to admit. |
Even if they aren't afraid. I don't put much weight on their preference. Myself and many other Dems thought Trump winning the nomination in 2016 was gonna be a layup for us in the General Election.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Wilt wrote: | | And maybe we shouldn't be listening to Republicans when they tell us whom we shouldn't nominate. I think they fear Bernie more than they would like to admit. |
Even if they aren't afraid. I don't put much weight on their preference. Myself and many other Dems thought Trump winning the nomination in 2016 was gonna be a layup for us in the General Election. |
Exactly. The two people that I mentioned above both thought that the Republicans were doomed if they nominated Trump. They were wrong, and now they're telling us that Bernie is a sure loser.
My whole point is: we have no idea, and things will happen until the very last day of the campaign that can significantly alter the result in a close election. Clinton was on a path toward victory (even with foreign interference and voter disenfranchisement affecting turnout), and one short announcement by Comey changed it all.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | Sucks that Dems value integrity and decency. Bernie bros probably aren't any worse than Trump supporters in the GOP 2016 primary. I worry if more moderate Dems would support and ride the wave of the far left to the oval office the same way moderate Republicans did with the far right in 2016.
But Trump is bad enough, I think we can unite and turnout enough to get him out of there. Not complaining about the infighting though, that's what primaries are for. |
Clearly many, many Trump supporters were far worse than the worst Bernie Sanders suppirter and legitimately deplorable.
What far right wave? The GOP lost six House seats and two Senate seats in 2016. |
Maybe wave is the wrong word.
Just mean to say, Trump appealed to people Romney and McCain couldn't get. And still didn't lose the support of traditional Republicans either. |
So will center-ish Dems and "independents" vote for Sanders over Trump? I don't know. Suburban white women like Sanders the least out of the viable Dem candidates based on a poll from earlier today and he still hasn't resonated with older black voters. It's not that Sanders would lose those demographics against Trump, but that running up numbers with educated white women and older African-Americans seems to present a clearer path toward a Democratic victory than appealing to...idk who Sanders appeals to among whites at this point.
Put another way, what are the key swing Senate seats this November? Does Sanders have an impact in swinging/maintaining any of those seats? Does he harm swinging/maintaining any of those seats?
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: |
You're off on a few points IMO.
The house was won not by progressives against the GOP (something like 0-38), But rather by mainstream to moderate Dems (who grabbed 40 seats). The available Senate seats for pickup are not in blue states, but are in similar territory to the house seats that were won. And those seats are very subject to loss if the top of the ticket is Bernie. |
As they are if anybody else runs. We have no idea how the dynamics will play out in hundreds of races throughout the country, other than we know it won't be a freaking landslide by Trump.
| Quote: | | Then there is the presidency itself. I keep seeing all these national poll numbers of Bernie vs Trump, which aren't even as high as the impeachment support, and you didn't see any GOP senators panicking. And why does that second thing matter? Because this isn't a popular vote plebiscite, it's an electoral college matter, and Trump holds significant advantages over Bernie in a number of key swing states, while Bernie is running up huge numbers in states that are going Democratic anyway. |
I haven't seen any evidence that he has significant advantages over Bernie there. He won the three states he needed to win by 77,000 against a much more unpopular candidate four years ago.
| Quote: | | And that's while they are actually trying to help him win the nomination (if you want to know why, google what Trump just told a bunch of California donors), because they have a mountain of oppo to go at him with. |
As they would have with everybody else. I still can't see this mountain of evidence that the election will be harder to win with Bernie on the ticket compared to others. Biden, for a while, did better against Trump in head to head matchups than others. But even that has changed and he runs the same as Bernie these days.
And maybe we shouldn't be listening to Republicans when they tell us whom we shouldn't nominate. I think they fear Bernie more than they would like to admit.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not turning into a BernieBro. He has certain weaknesses, but they all have their unique weaknesses. It'll be a big challenge whoever is nominated, but to isolate Bernie as a uniquely unelectable candidate is just not true. We have many months of scandals, crises, gaffes, and mistakes from all these candidates, and especially from Trump, which will introduce many unknown dynamics to the race. To predict that certain candidates are more electable than others, considering they're all beating Trump right now, is just silly. We have no idea. |
No, it is not the same to run for a house seat in a red area that elected you on the basis of keeping Obamacare with a M4A socialist at the top of the ticket vs "anyone else". It's just fundamentally not. Same as down ballot senate races.
And you don't see how Trump would have advantages in swing states vs a more moderate candidate? And not just those 3, but Florida, and apparently Virginia.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | | Omar Little wrote: |
You're off on a few points IMO.
The house was won not by progressives against the GOP (something like 0-38), But rather by mainstream to moderate Dems (who grabbed 40 seats). The available Senate seats for pickup are not in blue states, but are in similar territory to the house seats that were won. And those seats are very subject to loss if the top of the ticket is Bernie. |
As they are if anybody else runs. We have no idea how the dynamics will play out in hundreds of races throughout the country, other than we know it won't be a freaking landslide by Trump.
| Quote: | | Then there is the presidency itself. I keep seeing all these national poll numbers of Bernie vs Trump, which aren't even as high as the impeachment support, and you didn't see any GOP senators panicking. And why does that second thing matter? Because this isn't a popular vote plebiscite, it's an electoral college matter, and Trump holds significant advantages over Bernie in a number of key swing states, while Bernie is running up huge numbers in states that are going Democratic anyway. |
I haven't seen any evidence that he has significant advantages over Bernie there. He won the three states he needed to win by 77,000 against a much more unpopular candidate four years ago.
| Quote: | | And that's while they are actually trying to help him win the nomination (if you want to know why, google what Trump just told a bunch of California donors), because they have a mountain of oppo to go at him with. |
As they would have with everybody else. I still can't see this mountain of evidence that the election will be harder to win with Bernie on the ticket compared to others. Biden, for a while, did better against Trump in head to head matchups than others. But even that has changed and he runs the same as Bernie these days.
And maybe we shouldn't be listening to Republicans when they tell us whom we shouldn't nominate. I think they fear Bernie more than they would like to admit.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not turning into a BernieBro. He has certain weaknesses, but they all have their unique weaknesses. It'll be a big challenge whoever is nominated, but to isolate Bernie as a uniquely unelectable candidate is just not true. We have many months of scandals, crises, gaffes, and mistakes from all these candidates, and especially from Trump, which will introduce many unknown dynamics to the race. To predict that certain candidates are more electable than others, considering they're all beating Trump right now, is just silly. We have no idea. |
Have there been updated h2h numbers in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Alabama, Colorado, Maine, Wisconsin, and Michigan where the Senate will be decided?
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | Sucks that Dems value integrity and decency. Bernie bros probably aren't any worse than Trump supporters in the GOP 2016 primary. I worry if more moderate Dems would support and ride the wave of the far left to the oval office the same way moderate Republicans did with the far right in 2016.
But Trump is bad enough, I think we can unite and turnout enough to get him out of there. Not complaining about the infighting though, that's what primaries are for. |
Clearly many, many Trump supporters were far worse than the worst Bernie Sanders suppirter and legitimately deplorable.
What far right wave? The GOP lost six House seats and two Senate seats in 2016. |
Maybe wave is the wrong word.
Just mean to say, Trump appealed to people Romney and McCain couldn't get. And still didn't lose the support of traditional Republicans either. |
So will center-ish Dems and "independents" vote for Sanders over Trump? I don't know. Suburban white women like Sanders the least out of the viable Dem candidates based on a poll from earlier today and he still hasn't resonated with older black voters. It's not that Sanders would lose those demographics against Trump, but that running up numbers with educated white women and older African-Americans seems to present a clearer path toward a Democratic victory than appealing to...idk who Sanders appeals to among whites at this point.
Put another way, what are the key swing Senate seats this November? Does Sanders have an impact in swinging/maintaining any of those seats? Does he harm swinging/maintaining any of those seats? |
Seeing how the ideological middle candidates are floundering so far. And the top two appear to be the furthest left (Bernie) and furthest right (Bloomberg). It's tough to be confident any of the candidates can unite the group of voters who don't currently support them.
I'm leaning towards Bernie. Not because of personal preference. But just because we saw in 2016 his voters did not show up enough for us to take the White House. And he never had the lead that primary. If he ends up losing this nomination. They're probably even less likely to show up in swing state cities than before.
In terms of swing states. With Bernie you're hoping for major turnout in large population areas. With Bloomberg you're hoping for him to not get blown out as bad in less populated areas.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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None of the candidates with a realistic route to the nomination excite me. The though of kicking Trump to the curb in less than a year does though.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: |
No, it is not the same to run for a house seat in a red area that elected you on the basis of keeping Obamacare with a M4A socialist at the top of the ticket vs "anyone else". It's just fundamentally not. Same as down ballot senate races. |
Even in those district and states, you can't win without Bernie's base if they abstain in large numbers (especially after a turbulent convention), which is a real possibility if he isn't a nominee. And if he is the nominee, sure, it'll be a challenge for different reasons. As I said, every candidate, from the moderate to the most progressive, has their unique challenges. Bernie is not more electable or more unelectable than others.
| Quote: | | And you don't see how Trump would have advantages in swing states vs a more moderate candidate? And not just those 3, but Florida, and apparently Virginia. |
Until I see Bernie losing in the states we actually need to win for months in poll after poll, then I'd say yes. Bernie brings certain advantages, he brings certain disadvantages. So does Biden. So does Bloomberg. Etc.
My original point is that I don't think it's correct to declare that Democrats are making a huge mistake by nominating him, especially compared to other equally flawed candidates who are somehow perceived as more electable even though the data doesn't show it.
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jodeke
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | jodeke wrote: | | A off the wall query. It's said people eat with their eyes. In that vain does Bernie's appearance hurt him? At times he seems unkempt. Trump's orange hue and comb over didn't make a difference. |
I have no plans or fantasies to eat Bernie. Do you? |
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Wilt
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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Elizabeth Warren goes right at Bloomberg.
And now Amy does it.
Wow.
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governator
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Warren gloves off, hitting below the belts of Pete, Amy and Bernie |
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jodeke
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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They're letting Bloomberg off the hook.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Wilt wrote: | Elizabeth Warren goes right at Bloomberg.
And now Amy does it.
Wow. |
Take 'em all out.
ETA: except Bernie
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ContagiousInspiration
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jodeke
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Gitum Joe!!
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | greenfrog wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | Seeing Bernie and Bloomberg polling top 2 nationally makes me really long for the days when Warren and Biden were the top 2. On both sides.
Bernie makes Warren seems like a realist. And Bloomberg makes Biden look like a progressive. |
The fact that she like likes to virtue signal with plan-itis I don't think makes her more realistic. Just like Sanders is playing to his populist base with simple plans and generalities to show what he stands for, she's doing the same to her audience of West Wing watchers dreaming of a presidency where the Ivy League educated rub elbows in the White House and hatch brilliant policies on the fly. |
So...close...to the mask falling. |
Just vile moronic remark after another.
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jodeke
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| Posted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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Gitum Joe and Liz!!
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