What's the probability that we will make the playoffs?
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BigBallerBrand
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:14 pm    Post subject: What's the probability that we will make the playoffs?

6 games back in the loss column. Still possible?
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:17 pm    Post subject:

Not high. Hopeful they get to 32 wins.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:18 pm    Post subject:

Currently at 1.4% according to BBR.
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Jim99187
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: What's the probability that we will make the playoffs?

15 wrote:
6 games back in the loss column. Still possible?


dont think so. was hoping for DLO breakout year but he has been average. so no idea
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justsomelakerfan
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:20 pm    Post subject:

Not great. But it's actually somewhat within reach unlike the last couple seasons, I guess. Not thinking about it.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:02 pm    Post subject:

Interesting, i was hoping at least some of you would have said we had a decent shot...I haven't analyzed what our remaining schedule looks like compared to the other teams competing for #8, but i was hoping we had an easier schedule and that our young guys would get better over time
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:49 pm    Post subject:

two words:

ZE - Ro....!
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:30 pm    Post subject:

I know some folks don't agree with me that many of the young guys are struggling, but for me one saving grace for us is that we are where we are with many guys not hitting their stride.

Should that change for the better, there's a small chance we get in. Of course, that assumes some of the 8th-ish seed teams above don't also get better.

But realistically, our window is all but mathematically closed. Stranger things have happenened.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:35 pm    Post subject:

0.0
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:00 pm    Post subject: Re: What's the probability that we will make the playoffs?

15 wrote:
6 games back in the loss column. Still possible?


we'd probably have to play at a .600 clip the rest of the way, which is highly unlikely, especially for a bad defensive team.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:26 pm    Post subject:

Slim & None!
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:50 pm    Post subject: Re: What's the probability that we will make the playoffs?

activeverb wrote:
15 wrote:
6 games back in the loss column. Still possible?


we'd probably have to play at a .600 clip the rest of the way, which is highly unlikely, especially for a bad defensive team.


Not sure what you base that on, unless you expect the teams ahead of us are going to win at a much higher level going forward than they have thus far. If they win at current pace, LA would need to win just over half its remaining games to catch them.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:52 pm    Post subject:

The Lakers were ahead of all those teams a month ago before injuries combined with a brutal schedule and road trip. The odds are that LA is going to improve and that Denver and Portland and Sacramento aren't making some big sustained run. One might, but LA is in the race if they can get back to playing pretty injury ball.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:35 am    Post subject:

50%

they either make it or they don't

GO LAKERS
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Andre2K
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 12:37 am    Post subject:

I honestly don't see the point of pushing for the playoffs anymore, hope Luke focuses on player development going forward
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:31 am    Post subject:

With the worst defense in the league and all these injuries

I would say .0001 just because anything is possible
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:18 am    Post subject:

The team has a much easier schedule from here out. We have been through a brutal stretch. I'd say there is a decent (33%) chance we catch lightning in a bottle and finish with the 8'th seed.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:35 am    Post subject:

I want to be fighting for the 8th seed or the #1 Draft Pick. Winning 30 games and having the 8th worst record is pointless IMO.....that being said, it appears to me that is the exact path that we are on this year.

Getting the 8th seed probably only allows 4-5 games in the playoffs, but it would be worth it for the young guys and the organization overall. That likely requires us to be looking to add a piece at the trade deadline, and probably not provide as much attention to the development of Ingram.

Seeking the bottom gives us the optimal chance at adding a top tier draft pick that may become "the guy" for the next two decades. It also allows the team to ensure Russell gets his knee healthy, and tons of attention of developing Ingram and Zubac. Finally, it would allow the team to seek young talent or assets through trades.

Staying on the current course, and winning around 30 games likely does little except set us up to win 37 games next year.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:43 am    Post subject:

Our schedule gets a little easier from now on, never say never.

Seems like the 8th seed on the Western Conference will have a below .500 record this year, so we have a chance (currently Sacramento with 14-18).

We're 3.5 games behind them. LET'S GO LAKERS!
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 8:58 am    Post subject:

Daphanabe wrote:
Currently at 1.4% according to BBR.


Or approximately the same odds of keeping the top 3 pick....

Not likely they make the Playoffs. They have dug themselves too big a hole and too many teams are in their way to get back to even a weak 8th seed position.

Lakers would need to play at a .500 pace the rest of the way to even get to 36 wins. Do you see them doing that? Even if that win total would cut it.

I'll still be rooting for every win. Maybe they can defy the odds and start putting together some wins over the last 47 games. Stranger things have happened.

Still sticking with my early prediction of 30-35 wins and missing the playoffs by a few games. Still a remarkable accomplishment for a first year HC and young team. Now they just need to make it happen.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:01 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I want to be fighting for the 8th seed or the #1 Draft Pick. Winning 30 games and having the 8th worst record is pointless IMO.....that being said, it appears to me that is the exact path that we are on this year.

Getting the 8th seed probably only allows 4-5 games in the playoffs, but it would be worth it for the young guys and the organization overall. That likely requires us to be looking to add a piece at the trade deadline, and probably not provide as much attention to the development of Ingram.

Seeking the bottom gives us the optimal chance at adding a top tier draft pick that may become "the guy" for the next two decades. It also allows the team to ensure Russell gets his knee healthy, and tons of attention of developing Ingram and Zubac. Finally, it would allow the team to seek young talent or assets through trades.

Staying on the current course, and winning around 30 games likely does little except set us up to win 37 games next year.


Outside of Fultz, I don't see that type of player in the 2017 draft. Bunch of guards, no exceptional bigmen.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:06 am    Post subject:

Dr. Funkbot wrote:
adkindo wrote:
I want to be fighting for the 8th seed or the #1 Draft Pick. Winning 30 games and having the 8th worst record is pointless IMO.....that being said, it appears to me that is the exact path that we are on this year.

Getting the 8th seed probably only allows 4-5 games in the playoffs, but it would be worth it for the young guys and the organization overall. That likely requires us to be looking to add a piece at the trade deadline, and probably not provide as much attention to the development of Ingram.

Seeking the bottom gives us the optimal chance at adding a top tier draft pick that may become "the guy" for the next two decades. It also allows the team to ensure Russell gets his knee healthy, and tons of attention of developing Ingram and Zubac. Finally, it would allow the team to seek young talent or assets through trades.

Staying on the current course, and winning around 30 games likely does little except set us up to win 37 games next year.


Outside of Fultz, I don't see that type of player in the 2017 draft. Bunch of guards, no exceptional bigmen.


I would wait until about half way through conference play to make that call....some or at least a couple of these Freshman may break out. I have not even got a chance to watch Dennis Smith or Josh Jackson yet this year...I have seen a little of Tatum and like the gifts/potential. Not super high on Fultz or Ball yet.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:09 am    Post subject:

Same probability as the beginning of the season. Slim to none. And slim is slowly creeping out the building.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:10 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I want to be fighting for the 8th seed or the #1 Draft Pick. Winning 30 games and having the 8th worst record is pointless IMO.....that being said, it appears to me that is the exact path that we are on this year.

Getting the 8th seed probably only allows 4-5 games in the playoffs, but it would be worth it for the young guys and the organization overall. That likely requires us to be looking to add a piece at the trade deadline, and probably not provide as much attention to the development of Ingram.

Seeking the bottom gives us the optimal chance at adding a top tier draft pick that may become "the guy" for the next two decades. It also allows the team to ensure Russell gets his knee healthy, and tons of attention of developing Ingram and Zubac. Finally, it would allow the team to seek young talent or assets through trades.

Staying on the current course, and winning around 30 games likely does little except set us up to win 37 games next year.


Pretty impossible to tow the line between chasing the 8th seed and tanking. That's why some teams make a concerted tank effort sooner than 30 games in.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:11 am    Post subject:

I think we miss out by a few games. Maybe end up 9-10 overall.

That race for the 8th is packed and if we had shown a little more on the defensive side, I'd feel better about winning some of those close games at the end of the year.(which is my prediction of the race for 8)

Of course, its early and they can start playing defensive ball, but its unlikely.
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