Laker Film Room (Pg. 91: Pete Signed By Lakers)
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:40 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
Still doing the GT-casts this season?


Occasionally, but it won't be as often this year. I think I'll have game credentials for most of the home games (trying for my first one next Wednesday), and I'm a little less guerrilla than I was last year. IDK how live broadcasts will go over with organizations that actually know who I am this year, if that makes sense.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject:

Well organized podcast. Interesting listen, each Laker one at a time, comments coming from 3 different perspectives and ways of looking at their games.

You guys really confirmed what I was thinking about Caruso, with solid numbers and observations to back it up - I wasn't just seeing things, he's really solid in so many fundamental ways. I'd add boxing out to the already long list you guys provided.

One thing I did not realize, and whoever mentioned this did say you have to rewind to see this, was how often Ennis will miss off-ball action when his teammates make the effort off ball that we're trying to promote, and that Ennis isn't rewarding them. That's pretty telling and I didn't realize it was that bad. We certainly don't want players giving up. The offense looked flat this preseason with Ennis, good insights into why that is.

I hope we find a way to get Caruso on the permanent roster come spring if not before then.

Pretty concerning if Randle isn't happy about playing with the second unit after working hard and improving this summer. Particularly considering how little Nance has changed his game so far. And then there's Kuzma. And Deng. What a logjam at the 4. I'm certain Randle will finish games. I suspect Kuzma will too. I'm starting to hope that's at the 3 and 4. I hope that situation resolves favorably for us.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:52 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Lakers Film Room Podcast - Season Preview

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/19/lakers-podcast-2017-18-lakers-season-preview/

GT, re: Ingram's steal and block %s, I've always like Layne Vashro's (who is now a data analytics guy with the Nuggets) formulation of athletic potential versus skill potential:

Quote:
I took a bunch of players who left college before turning 20, then looked at their progression from their 20 years old NBA season to their 22 years old NBA season. The plots below compare progression across a range of statistics for the top and bottom half of performers at each statistic in college. (...)

Unsurprisingly, the players who were better at a given skill in college were better at all ages in the NBA, but what we are interested is in the change across the three years. The plot for ASTs/TOs in the top right corner is exactly what we would expect if Model 2 was the best way to describe individual differences in skill-level. Both groups progress in making decisions with the ball at an even rate with the high-skilled players reaching new heights and the low-skilled players holding the gap steady. The progression in points (per 40) actually shows the high-skilled college scorers improving at a faster rate than the low-skilled which is completely inconsistent with Model 1. Alternatively, scoring efficiency fits Model 1 very nicely. The more efficient college scorers are seeing minimal returns to increased development while the low-skilled group closes the gap between age 20 and 21. The high-skilled group also appears to be hitting a wall in improving free-throw percentage and foul rates, allowing those who struggled in college to catch up. Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

Link

Vashro didn't publish his data table, his analysis only covers the first three years of young players' careers, and given his employment with the Nuggets, he hasn't publicly updated the data in the past three years. But I always thought this piece was an interesting baseline for looking at the upside of skilled young players, as well as for projecting how college prospects are more likely to perform at the pro level.

Ingram is much more likely to develop into Rudy Gay than Andrei Kirilenko, imo.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:54 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Lakers Film Room Podcast - Season Preview

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/19/lakers-podcast-2017-18-lakers-season-preview/

GT, re: Ingram's steal and block %s, I've always like Layne Vashro's (who is now a data analytics guy with the Nuggets) formulation of athletic potential versus skill potential:

Quote:
I took a bunch of players who left college before turning 20, then looked at their progression from their 20 years old NBA season to their 22 years old NBA season. The plots below compare progression across a range of statistics for the top and bottom half of performers at each statistic in college. (...)

Unsurprisingly, the players who were better at a given skill in college were better at all ages in the NBA, but what we are interested is in the change across the three years. The plot for ASTs/TOs in the top right corner is exactly what we would expect if Model 2 was the best way to describe individual differences in skill-level. Both groups progress in making decisions with the ball at an even rate with the high-skilled players reaching new heights and the low-skilled players holding the gap steady. The progression in points (per 40) actually shows the high-skilled college scorers improving at a faster rate than the low-skilled which is completely inconsistent with Model 1. Alternatively, scoring efficiency fits Model 1 very nicely. The more efficient college scorers are seeing minimal returns to increased development while the low-skilled group closes the gap between age 20 and 21. The high-skilled group also appears to be hitting a wall in improving free-throw percentage and foul rates, allowing those who struggled in college to catch up. Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

Link

Vashro didn't publish his data table, his analysis only covers the first three years of young players' careers, and given his employment with the Nuggets, he hasn't publicly updated the data in the past three years. But I always thought this piece was an interesting baseline for looking at the upside of skilled young players, as well as for projecting how college prospects are more likely to perform at the pro level.

Ingram is much more likely to develop into Rudy Gay than Andrei Kirilenko, imo.


Well (bleep).

Great stuff, thank you. I couldn't think of anyone and that's probably why.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:20 pm    Post subject:

^ Yeah, after tonight I'm again not too hopeful he has a path to being anything more than an adequate NBA starter.

Also, even though Nance is a boring dude with his lack of offensive improvement, he's clearly one of the few guys on the team who would have value on most rosters across the league. I just don't know that he'll be able to sustain his effort as a starter.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:41 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Lakers Film Room Podcast - Season Preview

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/19/lakers-podcast-2017-18-lakers-season-preview/

GT, re: Ingram's steal and block %s, I've always like Layne Vashro's (who is now a data analytics guy with the Nuggets) formulation of athletic potential versus skill potential:

Quote:
I took a bunch of players who left college before turning 20, then looked at their progression from their 20 years old NBA season to their 22 years old NBA season. The plots below compare progression across a range of statistics for the top and bottom half of performers at each statistic in college. (...)

Unsurprisingly, the players who were better at a given skill in college were better at all ages in the NBA, but what we are interested is in the change across the three years. The plot for ASTs/TOs in the top right corner is exactly what we would expect if Model 2 was the best way to describe individual differences in skill-level. Both groups progress in making decisions with the ball at an even rate with the high-skilled players reaching new heights and the low-skilled players holding the gap steady. The progression in points (per 40) actually shows the high-skilled college scorers improving at a faster rate than the low-skilled which is completely inconsistent with Model 1. Alternatively, scoring efficiency fits Model 1 very nicely. The more efficient college scorers are seeing minimal returns to increased development while the low-skilled group closes the gap between age 20 and 21. The high-skilled group also appears to be hitting a wall in improving free-throw percentage and foul rates, allowing those who struggled in college to catch up. Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

Link

Vashro didn't publish his data table, his analysis only covers the first three years of young players' careers, and given his employment with the Nuggets, he hasn't publicly updated the data in the past three years. But I always thought this piece was an interesting baseline for looking at the upside of skilled young players, as well as for projecting how college prospects are more likely to perform at the pro level.

Ingram is much more likely to develop into Rudy Gay than Andrei Kirilenko, imo.


Well (bleep).

Great stuff, thank you. I couldn't think of anyone and that's probably why.


Agree, amazing stuff Baron.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:09 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Lakers Film Room Podcast - Season Preview

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/19/lakers-podcast-2017-18-lakers-season-preview/

GT, re: Ingram's steal and block %s, I've always like Layne Vashro's (who is now a data analytics guy with the Nuggets) formulation of athletic potential versus skill potential:

Quote:
I took a bunch of players who left college before turning 20, then looked at their progression from their 20 years old NBA season to their 22 years old NBA season. The plots below compare progression across a range of statistics for the top and bottom half of performers at each statistic in college. (...)

Unsurprisingly, the players who were better at a given skill in college were better at all ages in the NBA, but what we are interested is in the change across the three years. The plot for ASTs/TOs in the top right corner is exactly what we would expect if Model 2 was the best way to describe individual differences in skill-level. Both groups progress in making decisions with the ball at an even rate with the high-skilled players reaching new heights and the low-skilled players holding the gap steady. The progression in points (per 40) actually shows the high-skilled college scorers improving at a faster rate than the low-skilled which is completely inconsistent with Model 1. Alternatively, scoring efficiency fits Model 1 very nicely. The more efficient college scorers are seeing minimal returns to increased development while the low-skilled group closes the gap between age 20 and 21. The high-skilled group also appears to be hitting a wall in improving free-throw percentage and foul rates, allowing those who struggled in college to catch up. Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

Link

Vashro didn't publish his data table, his analysis only covers the first three years of young players' careers, and given his employment with the Nuggets, he hasn't publicly updated the data in the past three years. But I always thought this piece was an interesting baseline for looking at the upside of skilled young players, as well as for projecting how college prospects are more likely to perform at the pro level.

Ingram is much more likely to develop into Rudy Gay than Andrei Kirilenko, imo.


BVH that's excellent stuff.

I think you could quibble a bit (and I bet Vashro would agree) with the methodology, and feasibly argue it doesn't apply to Ingram. For example, what happens if you control for athletic gifts or physical profile? Maybe it makes sense Nik Stauskas wouldn't really improve his blocks number, but perhaps lanky guys who learn how to better utilize their length in weakside help situations do improve blocks? You can point to KD and Giannis for positive examples and Tayshaun as a negative example of players growing. But it is fair to suggest they might have their own sort of curve compared to the average player.

Of course, that's pure speculation and he very well may not be an outlier.

But this article does scream to me: DO NOT TRADE D'ANGELO RUSSELL ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:35 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Lakers Film Room Podcast - Season Preview

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/19/lakers-podcast-2017-18-lakers-season-preview/

GT, re: Ingram's steal and block %s, I've always like Layne Vashro's (who is now a data analytics guy with the Nuggets) formulation of athletic potential versus skill potential:

Quote:
I took a bunch of players who left college before turning 20, then looked at their progression from their 20 years old NBA season to their 22 years old NBA season. The plots below compare progression across a range of statistics for the top and bottom half of performers at each statistic in college. (...)

Unsurprisingly, the players who were better at a given skill in college were better at all ages in the NBA, but what we are interested is in the change across the three years. The plot for ASTs/TOs in the top right corner is exactly what we would expect if Model 2 was the best way to describe individual differences in skill-level. Both groups progress in making decisions with the ball at an even rate with the high-skilled players reaching new heights and the low-skilled players holding the gap steady. The progression in points (per 40) actually shows the high-skilled college scorers improving at a faster rate than the low-skilled which is completely inconsistent with Model 1. Alternatively, scoring efficiency fits Model 1 very nicely. The more efficient college scorers are seeing minimal returns to increased development while the low-skilled group closes the gap between age 20 and 21. The high-skilled group also appears to be hitting a wall in improving free-throw percentage and foul rates, allowing those who struggled in college to catch up. Interestingly, we see no development in rebounds, steals, or blocks for either group. This is consistent with analyses I have done in the past. These traits are something a player either has or does not have. Do not expect a prospect who cannot block, steal, or board to figure out how once he enters the NBA (not that this never happens of course). Instead, these traits should be viewed as a part of the baseline a player has to work from, much as height and leaping ability are popularly understood.

Link

Vashro didn't publish his data table, his analysis only covers the first three years of young players' careers, and given his employment with the Nuggets, he hasn't publicly updated the data in the past three years. But I always thought this piece was an interesting baseline for looking at the upside of skilled young players, as well as for projecting how college prospects are more likely to perform at the pro level.

Ingram is much more likely to develop into Rudy Gay than Andrei Kirilenko, imo.


BVH that's excellent stuff.

I think you could quibble a bit (and I bet Vashro would agree) with the methodology, and feasibly argue it doesn't apply to Ingram. For example, what happens if you control for athletic gifts or physical profile? Maybe it makes sense Nik Stauskas wouldn't really improve his blocks number, but perhaps lanky guys who learn how to better utilize their length in weakside help situations do improve blocks? You can point to KD and Giannis for positive examples and Tayshaun as a negative example of players growing. But it is fair to suggest they might have their own sort of curve compared to the average player.

Of course, that's pure speculation and he very well may not be an outlier.

But this article does scream to me: DO NOT TRADE D'ANGELO RUSSELL ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, he references George's post-draft growth spurt and Giannis' physical transformation all the way back in 2014 and seems to imply that changes in a player's athletic profile could change the baseline of their skillset, but doesn't go in-depth. It would make for a fascinating additional study, which Vashro has probably already done for the Nuggets.

And on DLo, 100% agreement - this was one of the analyses that firmed up my faith in sticking by his development. Unless a guy's a freak, go with the more skilled young basketball player every time.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:10 pm    Post subject:

Video: Lonzo Ball's debut + Lakers' pick & roll defense

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/20/laker-film-room-lonzo-balls-debut-lakers-pick-roll-defense/
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:38 am    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Video: Lonzo Ball's debut + Lakers' pick & roll defense

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/20/laker-film-room-lonzo-balls-debut-lakers-pick-roll-defense/


Thanks for the video! I liked the contrast between the good and bad P&R defense. I hope our young players get to see video like this to help them better understand the wrong and right coverages - those decisions need to be made in split seconds and it's the difference between easy layups or midrange jumpers.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:08 am    Post subject:

Is there any insider information as to whether the coaching staff is actually trying to address these issues mentioned in these videos?
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:36 pm    Post subject:

Jiggling Jello wrote:
Is there any insider information as to whether the coaching staff is actually trying to address these issues mentioned in these videos?


No idea, I'm sorry.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:36 pm    Post subject:

Video: Lonzo Ball Dominates, Brandon Ingram Career High

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/21/laker-film-room-lonzo-ball-dominates-brandon-ingram-career-high/
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:08 pm    Post subject:

That article makes Randle's defensive improvements in preseason even more impressive.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:14 pm    Post subject:

GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:58 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/


I am too old school, I like to read instead of watch videos. I do enjoy the articles at your site, especially the game by game statistical breakdown by Cranjis. It helps me watch the games differently.
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Last edited by venturalakersfan on Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:59 pm    Post subject:

Video: Lakers Comeback Falls Short, 119-112

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/laker-film-room-lakers-comeback-falls-short-119-112-pelicans/
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:27 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/

Oh, ho! Ask and I shall receive! Thank you!

You, Darius, and Tim are doing great work there. I need to migrate over and start commenting, as well as clicking on ads and patreon-ing
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:33 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/

Oh, ho! Ask and I shall receive! Thank you!

You, Darius, and Tim are doing great work there. I need to migrate over and start commenting, as well as clicking on ads and patreon-ing


Any or all of the above would be appreciated. The site's getting redesigned to join the modern era soon.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:25 pm    Post subject:

Really interesting video when you note how teams are rushing back on defense because of Lonzo.

There's a way to calculate RAPM where instead of keeping track of points, you keep track of rebounds. It basically calculates how beneficial you are to rebounding, adjusting for teammate and opponent quality. Would love to see what Lonzo's numbers are this season. Sadly IDK where to get that data so I'll settle for his on/off team rebounding differential, especially on defense.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:46 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/

Oh, ho! Ask and I shall receive! Thank you!

You, Darius, and Tim are doing great work there. I need to migrate over and start commenting, as well as clicking on ads and patreon-ing

Wondered why I didn't see any ads before realizing I had ad-blocker on. Turned it off (for FB&G) right away!
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:50 am    Post subject:

Wolverine wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/

Oh, ho! Ask and I shall receive! Thank you!

You, Darius, and Tim are doing great work there. I need to migrate over and start commenting, as well as clicking on ads and patreon-ing

Wondered why I didn't see any ads before realizing I had ad-blocker on. Turned it off (for FB&G) right away!


Really, really appreciate that. Thank you.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:19 am    Post subject:

Wolverine wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
GT, are you tracking Lonzo's outlets/kick aheads this season? I don't think even NBA.com keeps track of them as a separate category, and I'd be interested to see what kind of impact they have on the team's PPP.


We have all sorts of interesting stuff at FB&G. You should visit daily and click on the video ads!

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2017/10/23/lonzo-pass-ahead/

Oh, ho! Ask and I shall receive! Thank you!

You, Darius, and Tim are doing great work there. I need to migrate over and start commenting, as well as clicking on ads and patreon-ing

Wondered why I didn't see any ads before realizing I had ad-blocker on. Turned it off (for FB&G) right away!


Good call. I'm doing the same here.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:51 pm    Post subject:

I clicked on lots of ads ... but where was the "Add Boogie" button? My dream scenario: Pelicans underperform and fear that Boogie walks for nothing. We offer Deng + Randle + Future 1st for a sign-and-trade Boogie. Then, as my pipe dream continues, Paul George leaves the underperforming Thunder to join us as a max free agent.

2018-2019 Lakers rotation?
Lonzo/JC
Hart/JC
Ingram/Kuzma
George/Kuzma
Boogie/Nance/Zubac
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