The True Anti-Tank Missile
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject: The True Anti-Tank Missile

At this moment, the Western Conference #8-15:

8. Nuggs (19-25)
9. Blazers (19-27)
10. Pels (18-27)
11. Kings (17-27)
12. Wolves (17-28)
13. Mavs (15-29)
14. Lakers (16-32)
15. Suns (15-30).

I can't remember the last time the West's 8-15 were so terrible and closely grouped.

One interesting note: Lakers amongst this group have played the most number of games (48). Mavs/Nuggs have only played 44 games. Put it this way, the Lakers have squeezed about a weeks' worth of additional games into their schedule. That's brutal.

The current anti-tank missile IMO for the FO is the likely mirage that they can make the playoffs. Ordinarily, in most years, by this point, teams are helplessly out of playoff contention and/or about to realize that. But this year, I feel (and maybe fear) we may stand pat during the trade deadline with the hope that we can just pull off another 10-10 run with the current group healthy (and legit injuries have derailed this team).

This is the true anti-tank, the poor win records of the #8-15 seeds in the West. Until there is more separation, this may continue well into March.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:22 pm    Post subject:

I would still tank. There are too many teams ahead of the lakers to jump; not to mention some of those teams have been winning more frequently while the lakers have had trouble winning since 10-10 or 7-5 to be honest.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:24 pm    Post subject:

Paul Milsap is someone who might make the Lakers FO look into dealing for him.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:25 pm    Post subject:

Team doesn't even need to tank thanks to Mitch putting together another poorly talented team and the plethora of injuries. We need to scrap the bball front office and training staff
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject:

LakerSD wrote:
I would still tank. There are too many teams ahead of the lakers to jump; not to mention some of those teams have been winning more frequently while the lakers have had trouble winning since 10-10 or 7-5 to be honest.


Sure but the FO, who may or may not be on a tight deadline, may be lured by the "we're only 5 games from the 8th seed" until March or even April. It's so tight in the 8-15 range at this point that a 3-4 game winning streak may really make things interesting.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:49 pm    Post subject:

Can someone do the pro-rated math about just how far off we really are from the 8th seed if you stretched this to 82 games?
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:53 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Can someone do the pro-rated math about just how far off we really are from the 8th seed if you stretched this to 82 games?


If we just look at winning percentage, the Nuggets would get 8th seed with a 35-47 record and the Lakers would be 8 games behind at 27-55.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:55 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Can someone do the pro-rated math about just how far off we really are from the 8th seed if you stretched this to 82 games?


8-9 games?
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:59 pm    Post subject:

Treble Clef wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Can someone do the pro-rated math about just how far off we really are from the 8th seed if you stretched this to 82 games?


If we just look at winning percentage, the Nuggets would get 8th seed with a 35-47 record and the Lakers would be 8 games behind at 27-55.


Ok, thanks. Wow, how the West has fallen. Just a mess. Ordinarily this should be a good thing for a young team trying to make the next step, but for tankers, this persistent "we're close enough to the 8th seed" feeling may stifle moves.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:01 pm    Post subject:

8. Nuggs (19-25)  82 game equivalent: 35 47
9. Blazers (19-27)  82 game equivalent: 34 48
10. Pels (18-27)  82 game equivalent: 33 49
11. Kings (17-27)  82 game equivalent: 32 50
12. Wolves (17-28)  82 game equivalent: 31 51
13. Mavs (15-29)  82 game equivalent: 28 54
14. Lakers (16-32)  82 game equivalent: 27 55
15. Suns (15-30).  82 game equivalent: 27 55

so we're 8 games back of the 8 seed if wl% stays the same for the remainder of the season.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:06 pm    Post subject:

I have read through this post twice, and still don't understand it....is it saying we should avoid positioning to increase the odds of keeping pick?

Or is it saying we should make a trade to try to make playoffs?
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:11 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I have read through this post twice, and still don't understand it....is it saying we should avoid positioning to increase the odds of keeping pick?

Or is it saying we should make a trade to try to make playoffs?
. I have not taken any position on this thread. Just trying to understand the front office is motivation
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
I have read through this post twice, and still don't understand it....is it saying we should avoid positioning to increase the odds of keeping pick?

Or is it saying we should make a trade to try to make playoffs?


He's saying the front office may be foolish enough to think we can actually still make the playoffs as the 8th seed, given the apparent closeness of the #8 to #15 teams in the West standings (I may have added the "foolish" part), and won't fully commit to tanking because of that hope.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject:

you could argue that the chance for playoff experience against a true contending team like GS for our core would be better for their development than a 50/50 roll of the dice to keep our top 3 pick.

playoff basketball is a totally different animal, and even if we get swept in the series, there would be a LOT of learning going on in those 4 games and the preparation to those 4 games.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
you could argue that the chance for playoff experience against a true contending team like GS for our core would be better for their development than a 50/50 roll of the dice to keep our top 3 pick.

playoff basketball is a totally different animal, and even if we get swept in the series, there would be a LOT of learning going on in those 4 games and the preparation to those 4 games.


I think many people would agree with that. But the prospects of actually making the playoffs are slim-to-none, even though ostensibly we look like we have a chance. I think that's the point being made. If 38 wins gets you to the playoffs and 26 wins gets you the #2 "seed" for the tank, then the Lakers trying to make the playoffs may put them in no man's land of, say, 32 wins.

Anyways, I think the true anti-tank missile is optics. Jim & Mitch don't have an excuse to tank again.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:09 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
you could argue that the chance for playoff experience against a true contending team like GS for our core would be better for their development than a 50/50 roll of the dice to keep our top 3 pick.

playoff basketball is a totally different animal, and even if we get swept in the series, there would be a LOT of learning going on in those 4 games and the preparation to those 4 games.


I think many people would agree with that. But the prospects of actually making the playoffs are slim-to-none, even though ostensibly we look like we have a chance. I think that's the point being made. If 38 wins gets you to the playoffs and 26 wins gets you the #2 "seed" for the tank, then the Lakers trying to make the playoffs may put them in no man's land of, say, 32 wins.

Anyways, I think the true anti-tank missile is optics. Jim & Mitch don't have an excuse to tank again.


That's true. If they tank AND don't get a top 3 pick they may be gone.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:15 pm    Post subject:

I simulated the rest of the season in nba 2k17 (nba today my league) we finish the season 29-53 3rd worst record overall behind the nets and suns.

simulated the draft lottery. We got the second overall pick which I used to select Josh Jackson (could have gotten Lonzo Ball also).
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:15 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
8. Nuggs (19-25)  82 game equivalent: 35 47
9. Blazers (19-27)  82 game equivalent: 34 48
10. Pels (18-27)  82 game equivalent: 33 49
11. Kings (17-27)  82 game equivalent: 32 50
12. Wolves (17-28)  82 game equivalent: 31 51
13. Mavs (15-29)  82 game equivalent: 28 54
14. Lakers (16-32)  82 game equivalent: 27 55
15. Suns (15-30).  82 game equivalent: 27 55

so we're 8 games back of the 8 seed if wl% stays the same for the remainder of the season.


Yeah, 2nd worse record is honestly the best (worse?) we can do. We can lose out and I still don't think the Nets would his 16 wins this year. Lin had a hamstring, came back and injured his other one. They've had him out indefinitely since and reading the Nets news, it seems they're shelving him...
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject:

jonnybravo wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
8. Nuggs (19-25)  82 game equivalent: 35 47
9. Blazers (19-27)  82 game equivalent: 34 48
10. Pels (18-27)  82 game equivalent: 33 49
11. Kings (17-27)  82 game equivalent: 32 50
12. Wolves (17-28)  82 game equivalent: 31 51
13. Mavs (15-29)  82 game equivalent: 28 54
14. Lakers (16-32)  82 game equivalent: 27 55
15. Suns (15-30).  82 game equivalent: 27 55

so we're 8 games back of the 8 seed if wl% stays the same for the remainder of the season.


Yeah, 2nd worse record is honestly the best (worse?) we can do. We can lose out and I still don't think the Nets would his 16 wins this year. Lin had a hamstring, came back and injured his other one. They've had him out indefinitely since and reading the Nets news, it seems they're shelving him...


I'm counting on lin to come back and push the nets out of the worst record spot
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:24 pm    Post subject:

It depends on how you define as tanking? I don't think anyone can argue the younger players (Russell, Randle, Clarkson, Ingram, Nance Jr, Zubac and Black) should be playing as much as possible from now towards the end of the season. E.g. Russell should be playing in the fourth quarter in games. Playing the older players isn't getting the Lakers wins at the moment and I don't think that is going to change in the future. If the Lakers could some how get out of the Deng and Mozgov contracts they would but it's not possible.


According to ESPN the younger players minutes per game - Randle 29.4, Ingram 28.2, Clarkson 27.4, Russell 26.3, Nance Jr 22.0, Black 15.6 and Zubac 10.1.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:26 pm    Post subject:

and didn't everyone get offended when ESPN predicted us to stink? ESPN sucks, but until we field a better team, we're going to suck. deal with it. it's reality.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:29 pm    Post subject:

lkjhf wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
8. Nuggs (19-25)  82 game equivalent: 35 47
9. Blazers (19-27)  82 game equivalent: 34 48
10. Pels (18-27)  82 game equivalent: 33 49
11. Kings (17-27)  82 game equivalent: 32 50
12. Wolves (17-28)  82 game equivalent: 31 51
13. Mavs (15-29)  82 game equivalent: 28 54
14. Lakers (16-32)  82 game equivalent: 27 55
15. Suns (15-30).  82 game equivalent: 27 55

so we're 8 games back of the 8 seed if wl% stays the same for the remainder of the season.


Yeah, 2nd worse record is honestly the best (worse?) we can do. We can lose out and I still don't think the Nets would his 16 wins this year. Lin had a hamstring, came back and injured his other one. They've had him out indefinitely since and reading the Nets news, it seems they're shelving him...


I'm counting on lin to come back and push the nets out of the worst record spot


Doubt it. At some point i can see the nets shutting down Lopez.

Tanking would at beast get us the 2nd worst IMO.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:33 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
I have read through this post twice, and still don't understand it....is it saying we should avoid positioning to increase the odds of keeping pick?

Or is it saying we should make a trade to try to make playoffs?
. I have not taken any position on this thread. Just trying to understand the front office is motivation


I don't think Jim, Mitch or Luke believe playoffs is a goal. Luke himself pointed out he got carried away with the early success and was refocusing on development. I do think Jim sees Jeannie coming in for the death blow though. Might cause some paralysis on the trade front where the smart move is a long play but that cuts against self preservation. That also goes hand in hand with the silver bullet of a max slot. LA will be slow to give that up. Makes for a lot of constraints to a deal.

The other feature of the West being so bunched up around the 8th seed is it should make for less tanking opponents this year.
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Last edited by Laker's Fan on Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:34 pm    Post subject:

Realistically the team could improve and finish strong. They will have so much more time to practice, including an entire week off for the ASB, that their defense will have to improve.

They played decent D to start of the season, coming in from the training camp. Then the horrible schedule hit and the injuries hit.

If DLO and Nance are in the mix, the team can finish strong with the extra practice time and try and make a move on the 8'th spot.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:38 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Funkbot wrote:
Realistically the team could improve and finish strong. They will have so much more time to practice, including an entire week off for the ASB, that their defense will have to improve.

They played decent D to start of the season, coming in from the training camp. Then the horrible schedule hit and the injuries hit.

If DLO and Nance are in the mix, the team can finish strong with the extra practice time and try and make a move on the 8'th spot.


That's how I feel. I don't think they'll get to the 8th spot, but I can see them playing ~.500 ball post ASB which would likely lift them to the 11th seed or so. Bad for tanking purposes.

Of course, if Luke changes his lineups (e.g. more Zubac, start JC) and maybe even the Lakers trade Williams, then it's possible.
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