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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:56 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Next up on the list:

Cabrera at 451. I think he'll make 500. If he stays healthy and productive, I guess he could push 600. He's 34, so it's possible that he could make it, though unlikely.

Adrian Beltre at 446. He's 38. He should reach 3,000 hits this summer. He has had some injury problems, so he might have to play two more years to reach 500 HRs.

Carlos Beltran at 428. He's 40.

I don't see anyone else who is a major threat to hit 500, much less 600.


Cabrera is such a good pure hitter that he should be able to play a few more seasons at least as a DH, so I think 500 will be a shoo-in as long as he's healthy. (Once Victor Martinez's contract expires after next season, I think Cabrera will become their DH.) Keep in mind that he's under contract through at least 2023 (he has vesting options in '24 and '25). Hitting 600 might be tough; I'll put the over/under for him at 575.

Trout and Harper are obviously so far away, but both are so talented--and got started so early--that I think they get to 500 as long as health permits. Despite Trout's current thumb injury, he's the more likely of the two to stay healthy long-term.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:01 am    Post subject:

I agree about Trout and Harper, but as you say, it depends on their health. The most career HRs by a player currently under 30 is Justin Upton with 232. He turns 30 in August. Giancarlo Stanton has 223 and is 27. Everyone else in the 200 club is at least 30 (Jay Bruce, 254, turned 30 in April).

I'd say that Stanton has a decent chance of getting to 500, but again he has to avoid major injury issues. Bruce and Upton strike me as long shots.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:17 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Two more outfield misplays by the Cardinals today. Cost them the game.


And another on Sunday, leading up to a 3 run homer
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:03 pm    Post subject:

Sorry VLF, but I have to give a tip of the cap to Scooter Gennett for his game against the Cards. 5 for 5, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs. Now that is a career night.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject:

I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:43 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
I agree about Trout and Harper, but as you say, it depends on their health. The most career HRs by a player currently under 30 is Justin Upton with 232. He turns 30 in August. Giancarlo Stanton has 223 and is 27. Everyone else in the 200 club is at least 30 (Jay Bruce, 254, turned 30 in April).

I'd say that Stanton has a decent chance of getting to 500, but again he has to avoid major injury issues. Bruce and Upton strike me as long shots.


Yes, I agree that Bruce and Upton are extreme longshots. Stanton probably has a shot but he's rarely had seasons where he's avoided the DL, so I still consider him to be an underdog to do it.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:16 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.


Either way, still quite a feat. Even the best sluggers have a hard time doing that in the All-Star HR Derby.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:14 am    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
I dunno you know its the regular season when somebody who hit 2 consecutive HR's has a chance to go for a 3rd and 4th opportunity. In the postseason they would just walk him.


I don't know about that. If it was Bryce Harper, maybe. But I have trouble imagining a manager thinking, "Scooter Gennett is unstoppable tonight! We must walk him!"
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:02 am    Post subject:

Coming soon, a pitch clock and an electronic strike zone?

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Baseball officials and players may ultimately embrace -- or confront -- two words that seemed unimaginable even five or 10 years ago: pitch clock. And as the union and MLB exchange ideas in the months ahead, some players privately hope that part of the solution is the advent of an electronic strike zone, which they believe could serve to move the games along as much as a time limit between pitches.

There will be change between now and the start of the 2018 season, because under the terms of the CBA, MLB can make rule changes unilaterally if it cannot reach an agreement with the union. The power to alter the rules to accelerate the pace of action -- or to forcibly negotiate the alterations it wants -- is contained within Article XVIII of the collective bargaining agreement, page 77.

The wording is thought to be a long-standing holdover from the 1970s, and while itís not exactly clear why this section was added at that particular time, it certainly is handy now for commissioner Rob Manfred as he endeavors to hasten the way the sport is played, to better reflect the attention spans of these times: "[T]he right of the Clubs to make any rule change whatsoever shall not be impaired or limited in any way," so long as MLB gives notice to the union one season in advance -- which it has already done. The areas of focus for MLB are on the time between pitches and the growing number of meetings among pitchers, catchers and infielders.


Quote:
Among the rank and file of the union, the concept may not seem as radical as it once did because the vast majority of MLB players have competed in games in which pitchers are given 20 seconds between deliveries. That rule change was implemented prior to the 2015 season for Double-A and Triple-A, and as researcher Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information dug out, a staggering 74 percent of the 1,047 players on active MLB rosters or disabled lists have played at those two levels since the start of the 2015 season, some on injury rehabilitation assignments.


Quote:
Through negotiation, the players would be in position to get something in return, and in recent weeks some have privately mentioned their hope that the union will push for an automated strike zone, with balls and strikes determined electronically. This would remove the constant debate over strike zone decisions, according to players.

"It could speed up the game at least as much [as the pitch clock]," said one player. "Think about what happens now: You have a close pitch, and the batter steps out to ask the home plate umpire. Or the catcher turns to ask the umpire. Or the pitcher says something, and he slows down because heís frustrated with a call. The benches yell at the umpire, and the umpire turns to yell back.

"That would all go away. Nothing would have to be said. It would either be a ball or a strike, and everybody would move on to the next pitch."


http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16805/olney-baseball-keeps-getting-slower-but-change-will-come-by-2018
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:43 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Coming soon, a pitch clock and an electronic strike zone?

Quote:
Baseball officials and players may ultimately embrace -- or confront -- two words that seemed unimaginable even five or 10 years ago: pitch clock. And as the union and MLB exchange ideas in the months ahead, some players privately hope that part of the solution is the advent of an electronic strike zone, which they believe could serve to move the games along as much as a time limit between pitches.

There will be change between now and the start of the 2018 season, because under the terms of the CBA, MLB can make rule changes unilaterally if it cannot reach an agreement with the union. The power to alter the rules to accelerate the pace of action -- or to forcibly negotiate the alterations it wants -- is contained within Article XVIII of the collective bargaining agreement, page 77.

The wording is thought to be a long-standing holdover from the 1970s, and while itís not exactly clear why this section was added at that particular time, it certainly is handy now for commissioner Rob Manfred as he endeavors to hasten the way the sport is played, to better reflect the attention spans of these times: "[T]he right of the Clubs to make any rule change whatsoever shall not be impaired or limited in any way," so long as MLB gives notice to the union one season in advance -- which it has already done. The areas of focus for MLB are on the time between pitches and the growing number of meetings among pitchers, catchers and infielders.


Quote:
Among the rank and file of the union, the concept may not seem as radical as it once did because the vast majority of MLB players have competed in games in which pitchers are given 20 seconds between deliveries. That rule change was implemented prior to the 2015 season for Double-A and Triple-A, and as researcher Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information dug out, a staggering 74 percent of the 1,047 players on active MLB rosters or disabled lists have played at those two levels since the start of the 2015 season, some on injury rehabilitation assignments.


Quote:
Through negotiation, the players would be in position to get something in return, and in recent weeks some have privately mentioned their hope that the union will push for an automated strike zone, with balls and strikes determined electronically. This would remove the constant debate over strike zone decisions, according to players.

"It could speed up the game at least as much [as the pitch clock]," said one player. "Think about what happens now: You have a close pitch, and the batter steps out to ask the home plate umpire. Or the catcher turns to ask the umpire. Or the pitcher says something, and he slows down because heís frustrated with a call. The benches yell at the umpire, and the umpire turns to yell back.

"That would all go away. Nothing would have to be said. It would either be a ball or a strike, and everybody would move on to the next pitch."


http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/16805/olney-baseball-keeps-getting-slower-but-change-will-come-by-2018


Electronic balls and strikes would clearly help the pitchers with better stuff on their downward-breaking sliders/curveballs IMO. The better the downward movement, the more chance you would have to actually get a pitch to cross at the knees. I've seen guys break off incredible sliders and the pitch simply doesn't get called a strike because it breaks down so hard that it's caught well below the knees at the end, and it just looks like a ball to everyone. You'll also see possible advantages to hard throwers who can locate 95+ just above the belt, which is technically supposed to be a strike.

In short, I think that automated balls-and-strikes will give an even bigger advantage to the pitchers with better stuff.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:30 am    Post subject:

The game doesn't need to be speeded up
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 4:49 am    Post subject:

I don't know whether an automated strike zone would be an advantage for pitchers, even those with great stuff. It's possible, but some of those guys get strike calls from human umpires even though the ball drops out of the zone at the last split second. Also, I've watched a lot of great pitchers manipulate the umpire into calling outside pitches strikes. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were pros at this, though neither of them were really "great stuff" guys.

One thing that would change is two strike dynamics. Right now, batters will swing at close balls because the umpire might call the pitch a strike. We know from the TV pitch tracker that the batters are right about this. With an automated strike zone, batters would be more likely to take pitches with two strikes.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject:

Does baseball have a cocaine problem?

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