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Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 1:00 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

But he's an elite QB, and I stand behind that.

Seriously? Who do you consider to be the elite QBs in the NFL? You must have a fairly big list.

rwongega
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Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:07 pm Post subject:

jodeke wrote:

rwongega wrote:

jodeke wrote:

rwongega wrote:

jodeke wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

rwongega wrote:

Cam Newton is a terrible QB.

Not true.

By the way, you try playing QB when your team cannot run the ball a lick. McCaffrey has been so bad between the tackles that they have almost given up completely on giving him carries, and Jonathan Stewart has 17 yards on his last 26 carries and is averaging a pitiful 2.9 YPC on the season. At this point, perhaps they should try getting Artis-Payne some carries and see what happens. And while he was taking too many chances late in the game, he also looked a little beat up to me, and one INT was J-Stew's fault and another was when he got hit on the pass rush, also not his fault.

Overall, Newton has a higher passer rating for his career than Brett Favre had, with a higher YPA and a lower INT %, too, and of course this says nothing of the amazing dual threat he is. When healthy, he's one of the best players in the league.

LINK

Another typical useless gif contribution that adds nothing but trolling out of someone who can't formulate a coherent argument.

That response is quizzical. It borders on chiding. Is there a reason? CS post is evidence that Cam is not a terrible QB. Mine is just a innocent GIF meant to be facetious. Forming a coherent argument would mean there is a reason to do so. If you're sensitive in the future I'll refrain from entering into discussions you're involved in.

Hardly. You know what you do and everyone on this board knows. Not facetious and absolutely deliberate trolling.

You speak for everybody. WOW!! Have a nice day.

I will. And yes, I will speak for everybody.
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rwongega
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Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:43 pm Post subject:

Moses wrote:

Cam Newton is definitely overrated if you consider the narrative of being an elite QB in the league.

That being said, I don't think many would label him as a phenomenal arm talent, or particularly accurate. He has power in his arm, and when he does make throws they look good, but he is a better rusher than he is a passer. He's probably still a borderline / top 10 QB in the league, all things considered, because as rushing QBs go he is a beast.

I don't disagree. He's quite a power runner. But the throws he makes all but necessitates having a 6'5 big target to compensate for errant passes.
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rwongega
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Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:30 pm Post subject:

Niners release Navorro Bowman. Definitely are some contenders out there who can use a decent MLB. _________________ http://media.giphy.com/media/zNyBPu5hEFpu/giphy.gif http://bartsblackboard.com/files/2009/11/The-Simpsons-05x18-Burns-Heir.jpg RIP Jonathan Tang RIP Alex Gruenberg Free KBCB

ChickenStu
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Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:42 pm Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

But he's an elite QB, and I stand behind that.

Seriously? Who do you consider to be the elite QBs in the NFL? You must have a fairly big list.

This ended up being a pretty long set of lists, so forgive me. Here is my list of QB's that I think are definitively better than Cam Newton right now, and for me this is in order:

Aaron Rodgers (the most skilled QB in my lifetime)
Tom Brady (and he doesn't have much time left)
Drew Brees (and he doesn't have much time left)
Russell Wilson (doesn't quite have Cam's rushing upside, but does move around a lot and extend plays, and is a more accurate passer; their team has the worst O line in the sport right now and he still QB's them to wins)

That's it. That's my entire list. Next, there are a few QB's that I think are in a similar tier to Newton, and you can make arguments one way or the other. Here's my next tier of guys next to Newton IMO, in no particular order, with comments:

Matthew Stafford (has shed the injury-prone label from early in his career and has become a fantastic leader of many comebacks)
Matt Ryan (some are probably going to overrate him based on his monumental '16 MVP season, but this year his #'s are more in line with his previous career #'s, which are very nice but not amazing; has the same # of MVP awards as Mr. Newton)
Dak Prescott (both a very fine passer and a very fine mover, he's legitimately an elite QB like the others in this tier)
Andrew Luck (when healthy, he has that "it" factor similar to Stafford, and he deserves to be in this tier; he's already willed some pretty awful Colts teams deep into the playoffs)

So that's 9 guys, for me, that I would consider "elite" NFL QB's. Of those 9, 5 have won MVP's, with Newton being one of them. Here is my next tier down, and these are all guys that I would consider to be solid, above-average QB's, guys I believe you can win in the playoffs with, if you have the right team around them. And this list has shrunk for me since the beginning of the season, based on what I've seen. Again in no particular order:

Alex Smith (right now, with the way he's taking more chances and running more, he's playing like an elite QB, in fact maybe the MVP of the entire league, but I can't put him in a tier above based on the first 5 games of this season, at least not yet; still, he's always won, and now he's playing much better due to a change in playing style)
Kirk Cousins (most definitely an above-average, accurate passer who has had to carry the burden of his team's offense because of the lack of an effective running game; should still have many good years left)
Carson Wentz (possibly my favorite of all the young QB's in football, he has every tool you could ever want. Prescott has been elite since his very first game, which is why I have him in the tier above Wentz, but I am in love with his upside and believe he belongs here already.)
Derek Carr (many people vastly overrate him, and he's been right at only 7 YPA for 3 years running, which is not elite; that said, he is getting more and more accurate each year)

OK, that's 13 QB's so far. This next tier comprises guys that I think are either average QB's that might be in decline, or up-and-coming QB's that could get better but are unproven and/or inconsistent, or maybe average starters that are hurt or can't get healthy. These are guys that I still think could be the QB of a playoff team in the right situation, again in no particular order:

Carson Palmer (aging gunslinger almost at the end of the line, but he can still make every throw if he is given time)
Jared Goff (has shown that he might not be a bust after all, and in fact has some promise)
Jameis Winston (gunslinger's mentality but turns the ball over a lot and I'm not sure he's improved much from his rookie season; retains upside, though)
Deshaun Watson (not ready to put him any higher after just a few games, but his upside is pretty damn undeniable; could move up in short order)
Eli Manning (he's pretty close to Palmer territory at this point)
Philip Rivers (still decent enough, but definitely in decline)
Tyrod Taylor (average passer does offer big-play ability in both the pass and run game; devoid of aerial weapons right now and that's not his fault; put him on the Jags with a healthy A-Rob and that team is much more dangerous)
Sam Bradford (super accurate but just cannot get or stay healthy)
Ben Roethlisberger (appears to be in serious decline)
Andy Dalton (the stats are alright, but a horrific primetime record has kept him in this tier)
Marcus Mariota (I'm a fan of his game and I'd like to have him higher, but injuries are starting to look like a major concern; can he get past that and do what Stafford has done? I have no issue if people wanted to put him a tier higher.)

OK, now we're up to 24 QB's. That last tier was by far the largest one, and I'd call that the average starting NFL QB tier at the moment. We only have 8 starters left. Hoyer is just a placeholder in SF and is a bottom-of-the-barrel option. Ditto Bortles in Jacksonville, where Doug Marrone is looking to hide him as much as possible (he threw all of 14 passes last week). Mitch Trubisky is just getting started and obviously will have a chance to climb much higher than this, and you can even say that about the recently-benched DeShone Kizer; at least these guys have some potential upside, unlike some other older retreads. I debated putting Siemian in the above tier, but he's basically just a game-manager who doesn't really add much to a team. (He isn't killing the Broncos right now, which I suppose is something, but he's just playing a role similar to what Alex Smith has in the past.) Joe Flacco looks old all of a sudden and in major decline. That leaves Josh McCown (just a placeholder and even older than a guy like Hoyer) and Jay Cutler (should have stayed retired).

So that's about it, I guess. Oh, as for the backup QB's, I believe that Pat Mahomes will be starting for the Chiefs next season and I think he could have a Watson-like impact. Assuming that comes to pass, it will be interesting to see who Alex Smith is playing for next season.

Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:13 am Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

So that's 9 guys, for me, that I would consider "elite" NFL QB's.

That's the important point. The term "elite QB" means something different to you than it does to me and a lot of other people. And that's fine, because you can define it however you want. However, you have almost a third of the QBs in the league as "elite."

Setting aside the tiers, I think your rank order of the QBs is excellent. I would have Alex Smith a little higher, and I would rate Flacco a little better than you do (even though I'm still laughing about his contract years later). Those are just quibbles, though. I think you've done a terrific job of putting the QBs in order.

I'd put Cam somewhere in the range from Cousins to Palmer. I would take every QB from Alex Smith up over Cam (not considering the age/retirement factor for someone like Brady or Brees). I would have to think long and hard about Cam vs. Cousins, Wentz, Carr, and Palmer. Below that line, the only guys who would make me hesitate are Goff, Winston, and Watson.

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:23 am Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

So that's 9 guys, for me, that I would consider "elite" NFL QB's.

Thanks for the nice words. Of course, we all have our preferences when it comes to rating players. As for Cam, I absolutely feel that if you replaced him on the Panthers with, say, a guy I have as an average QB like Tyrod Taylor (let's just say a similar skillset but not as good), I think that is an average-to-below-average team. The NFL has seen other "rushing" QB's before, but never one like Cam, who can not only run for 1st downs often, but is his own goal-line back. He changes the entire equation when it comes to actually scoring TD's, and that ability makes big differences in football games (a QB that makes it much more likely to get 7 points instead of possibly 3). I don't think it's a coincidence that the Panthers are 25-11 in his last 36 starts. Anyway, yeah, I have Newton in that 5-9 range of QB's in the league.

I love what Wentz brings to the table. Prototypical size, and he can make every throw. Has arm talent, but also touch. Combine that size with his mobility/athleticism, and he has a Rodgers-like skill set, although I doubt if he'll ever be THAT accurate or savvy. Still, I think he has a chance to have many All-Pro seasons.

I'm also a big Watson fan, and I've been hailing the Texans' move to trade up for him since it happened. The guy just knows how to make plays and has a confidence and a leadership style that I think rubs off on a team. He's not going to wow with amazing accuracy, but I think he can basically be a much, much better version of Tyrod Taylor.

Can you imagine how Hue Jackson must be feeling right now? Apparently with large input from Jackson, the Browns passed on drafting Wentz last season and instead traded the pick, and they passed on drafting Watson this season and traded down with the Texans. I know they liked getting Kizer where they did, but oy vey.

And I really do love the way that Alex Smith is playing right now. As I said, I think he might be the MVP of the league through 5 games. I just wasn't ready to put him higher based on 5 games, because he's basically never played this way before. He's always been a game-manager (who could run a little bit) before this. The way he's playing right now, though, it's absolutely good enough for the Chiefs to be serious Super Bowl contenders.

ringfinger
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:10 am Post subject:

The primary thing I think keeps Cam from elite territory to me, is his leadership or lack thereof. I don't see him elevating his receivers really. He's also not efficient enough for me to put him in the elite category. To me, the elite category is limited to ChickenStu's first tier, and I might even move Russell Wilson down to the top end of the second tier but thats mainly because I don't fear his arm as much as I do the other guys in that group.

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:40 am Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

The primary thing I think keeps Cam from elite territory to me, is his leadership or lack thereof. I don't see him elevating his receivers really. He's also not efficient enough for me to put him in the elite category.

To me, the elite category is limited to ChickenStu's first tier, and I might even move Russell Wilson down to the top end of the second tier but thats mainly because I don't fear his arm as much as I do the other guys in that group.

I put Wilson in that tier because his stats show that he's extremely efficient, plus he can move. And he HAS to move, because their offensive line is truly horrendous, and has been for the past 2 seasons. He played almost all of last season essentially on a bum ankle, and the Seahawks still got to the divisional round of the playoffs. The dude is an absolute winner.

rwongega
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:09 pm Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

He elevates his receivers all right. They have to use all 6'6" length to extend in order to even grab his lofty passes.
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ringfinger
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:13 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

I don't disagree with anything you said. Its just hard for me to put a QB in that elite category when he simply doesn't throw a lot of touchdowns. For me, it's a requirement to be an elite QB that you throw a lot of TDs consistently year in and out. So far, he's only crossed the 30 TD mark once and they had their worst record in doing so.

He's still young and so there's time, but, in the same class as Brady and Rodgers? Not yet.

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:32 pm Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

Their defense has been so good that he hasn't had to get into too many shootouts, although in the past year or two that's changing a little bit. But if you look at what he's done from an efficiency standpoint (64.5% completions, 7.9 YPA, 98.9 QB Rating) and a winning standpoint, I think he deserves to be in the #4 position among QB's today. As for the point about TD's, his TD % is 5.5% for his career. Drew Brees' is 5.3%. He simply doesn't throw as many passes as some of the other guys, but that's not his fault. Now add onto his passing stats the mobility. I absolutely believe that Wilson is an elite QB, although it is also fair to point out that his stats have declined a bit since the start of last season. But, again, I would point out that he played virtually all of last season on a bum ankle.

ringfinger
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:38 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

No qualms with having him at #4. I just, have a hard time calling someone an elite QB when I can't comfortably conclude that the success of a player's team hinges primarily on the QB's arm.

In order to do that, for me, you have to throw a lot of passes and throw a lot of passes often. As in basketball, a good 3pt percentage is nice but if you're not taking a lot of 3s, you don't get to join the company of Curry whether that is your fault or not.

Now, I'm not prepared to say he cannot do that, maybe he could. But to be an elite QB, to me, the QB's arm has to be the #1 concern for opposing defenses every night and that arm has to consistently torch defenses anyway.

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:42 pm Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

I kind of see the logic of what you're saying, but I would just say that it's not his fault that he's been on the Seattle Seahawks and that the Seattle Seahawks have traditionally had a great defense since he's been their QB. You put him on the Jaguars and they are a Super Bowl contender, or, at least, certainly with A-Rob they would be. But if you want to say there are only 3 "elite" QB's, I'm not going to quibble with you too much. However, I think there are 9, and when you look up this definition of the word, it says this...

a select part of a group that is superior to the rest in terms of ability or qualities

So I think it's fair to call 9 guys out of 32 "elite." But that's just my view of it.

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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:12 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

for me, Wilson just does not have that "wow" factor when I watch him.....I never walk away feeling like I just watched someone truly special at the QB spot....the way Rodgers and Brady often leave me feeling. So I guess its the famous "eye test".....but no doubt his success on the field says otherwise.

Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:16 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

If you take out the 15-1 record from 2015, the Panthers have gone 10-11 with Newton over the last two seasons (6-9 and 4-2). So the question is whether 2015 was a fluke year and whether Newton will turn out to be another Eli Manning (i.e, a couple big years and a lot of mediocrity).

As for the "rushing QB" argument, let's take a hard look at the numbers. As a threshold matter, I don't put much weight on metrics when it comes to ranking QBs. I don't think you can even come close to capturing the totality of a QB's contributions through metrics. Furthermore, metrics cannot capture a zillion other factors, from the offensive line to the receivers.

I am not going to cite numbers to show how Newton ranks against other QBs. I am citing them to make a different point.

Here are the current QBR rankings. These are not stats from a full season, so there are oddballs on the list like Case Keenum:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Look at the columns marked Pass and Run. What the numbers show us about Newton is that about 43% of his value comes from his rushing. That is a huge number. The only good QB who comes close this year is Russell Wilson, but in his good years, the number was much lower. (The Bortles numbers are sort of funny, but the way.)

Now compare that to the 2015 numbers, when Newton was at his peak. Bear in mind that these are full season numbers, so the individual numbers are all going to be bigger:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/2015

The Pass and Run numbers show us that about 31% of Newton's value came from rushing in 2015.

That's the vector of Newton's career. He has not become a refined passer. If anything, he has regressed. As a passer, in six games this year, he has nine TDs, eight interceptions, and three fumbles. But he has three TDs, sixteen first downs, and one fumble as a rusher.

So he has gone from being a dual threat QB to a mediocre passer who needs to rely on his rushing. That's not an elite QB for me.

ChickenStu wrote:

I'm also a big Watson fan, and I've been hailing the Texans' move to trade up for him since it happened. The guy just knows how to make plays and has a confidence and a leadership style that I think rubs off on a team. He's not going to wow with amazing accuracy, but I think he can basically be a much, much better version of Tyrod Taylor.

As a Texans fan, I hope we finally caught a break at the QB position. I flipped on the TV for a few minutes last weekend, just in time to see J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus go out for the season. We're screwed this year, and we may have to go through a rebuild. This season is all about finding out what Watson can do.

But I still have my beloved Astros. We might have an Astros-Dodgers World Series. It would be the first all-National League World Series. Oops, wait, something changed, didn't it?

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:33 pm Post subject:

^^ I think Newton started slowly this season because he wasn't fully recovered from offseason surgery, and they barely let him throw the ball in preseason. He looked very good throwing in Weeks 4 and 5, and I'll give him a pass this week because I hate Thursday games LOL. Anyway, I still have Newton as a top-9 QB in the league at the moment. You're obviously entitled to feel differently. As for Watson, he's just so exciting to watch, and I'll definitely say that I like his leadership style more than Cam. Brutal blow to lose Watt (and Mercilus) again, but they can still compete in the AFC South this season IMO.

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:54 am Post subject:

I would rather have Wentz than Newton. Wentz is the most underrated QB in the NFL today, he has major talent and it is coming out. _________________ Love, Laker Lanny

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:56 am Post subject:

Cheatriots getting demolished by the Jets early on. _________________ http://media.giphy.com/media/zNyBPu5hEFpu/giphy.gif http://bartsblackboard.com/files/2009/11/The-Simpsons-05x18-Burns-Heir.jpg RIP Jonathan Tang RIP Alex Gruenberg Free KBCB

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:34 am Post subject:

And just like that the Patriots storm back to tie the game.

lakersken80
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:11 am Post subject:

Aaron Rodgers potentially out for the season with a broken collarbone.

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:13 am Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:

Aaron Rodgers potentially out for the season with a broken collarbone.

The only QB worth watching.
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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:19 am Post subject:

He was the only reason I watched any NFL games, and I don't really care about the Packers. That sucks. _________________ ¡Hala Madrid!

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:23 am Post subject:

I don't think he'll miss the rest of the season he had this same exact injury in 2013 in Week 9 came back before the end of the regular season and they still won the division. Its only Week 6 history could repeat itself.

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Posted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:44 am Post subject:

Buck32 wrote:

lakersken80 wrote:

Aaron Rodgers potentially out for the season with a broken collarbone.

The only QB worth watching.

You don't like Brady, he's lighting it up against the Jets.

Jets got jobbed on a sure TD
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