A rough imperfect analysis of how many games we would've won without Lou and Nick
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awntawn
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:28 am    Post subject: A rough imperfect analysis of how many games we would've won without Lou and Nick

A lot of people keep mentioning that our young core is, despite the rough season, actually still on pace to win close to what OKC won in the first year of their core being together (around 27 wins). That comparison has always bothered me, because unlike that team, as well as a lot of other teams that are currently rebuilding, the Lakers haven't actually been leaning on their young players for production.

A lot of people, including myself, keep saying that wins off the backs of Lou Williams and Nick Young do absolutely nothing for the growth of this team. The Lakers currently have 19 wins and are on pace for around 27, which is by all means not terrible for a young rebuilding team. However, I constantly wonder how many of those wins we would have if a) Lou Williams or Nick Young isn't our top scorer in the game, b) Lou Williams and Nick Young aren't two of our top three scorers in the game, or c) either a or b.

So I decided to go through all of our 19 wins and find our top three scorers for each game. While I know that simply looking at scoring isn't an exact accurate measure of impact, it still says something.

Without further ado:

Houston
1. JC 25
2. DAR 20
3. JR 18

Atlanta
1. DAR 23
2. JC 18
3. LW 18

Golden State
1. JR 20
2. LW 20
3. DAR 17

Phoenix
1. NY 22
2. JR 18
3. JC 18

Sacramento
1. LW 21
2. DAR 17
3. NY 16

New Orleans
1. JC 23
2. DAR 22
3. LW 21

Brooklyn
1. DAR 32
2. TM 20
3. JR 17

Oklahoma City
1. JC 18
2. NY 17
3. TM 16

Atlanta
1. LW 21
2. JC 18
3. NY 17

Chicago
1. LW 18
2. JC 18
3. JR 13

Philadelphia
1. JR 25
2. LW 18
3. DAR 15

Los Angeles
1. NY 19
2. TM 19
3. LW 14

Memphis
1. NY 20
2. JR 19
3. DAR 18

Miami
1. LW 24
2. LD 19
3. DAR 19

Orlando
1. JR 19
2. DAR 17
3. BI 17

Indiana
1. LW 27
2. JR 16
3. NY 15

Denver
1. NY 23
2. DAR 22
3. LW 21

New York
1. LW 22
2. NY 17

3. BI 14

Milwaukee
1. NY 26
2. LW 21

3. JR 15

To answer question a, Nick Young was the leading scorer in 5 of our wins, and Lou Williams was the leading scorer in 6 of our wins, which leaves a grand total of 8 wins where one of our young core was the leading scorer on the team.

Now for question b, the answer is 12 wins.

For c, the answer is the same as question a, 8 wins.

Once again, this is an imperfect science and not exactly advanced stats, but I feel like it's enough to at least make the argument that if not for the games won by Lou and Nick, we could be somewhere between 8 and 12 wins right now, essentially on par with the Nets for the worst record in the league by far, who are projected to finish the season with 14.

If you want to take it a step further and count how many wins we have without either of them being one of the top 3, that brings us to a grand total of 3 wins solely off the backs of our young core.

Again, I know it's a flawed analysis. But I do think it can give an idea of what to expect if we do end up, like many people including myself want, dumping Lou and Nick for picks before the deadline. We could very well not win another game.

Maybe that's what's best for the tank. Maybe it will open up room for some of the kids to finally start to break out. Still, keep your expectations in check. This could get ugly. Reaaaal ugly.
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richmorgan12
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:00 am    Post subject: Re: A rough imperfect analysis of how many games we would've won without Lou and Nick

awntawn wrote:


Again, I know it's a flawed analysis.


It's really flawed. You're basically subtracting Lou and Nick's points, without adding back any points from their shots being redistributed to other players.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:27 am    Post subject:

It's really flawed. But I'll let the resident advanced stats guys tell you why.

It doesn't take into account how Lou's scoring would be absorbed by increased minutes for DLO/JC/Swaggy for example.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:55 am    Post subject:

Great work. It clearly shows how valuable Lou and Nick's scoring is to the team.

As mentioned above, those points would certainly be scored by someone else -- but.. to what extent? That's why I don't think it's as flawed as the posters above are making it out to be.

Not having Nick and Lou certainly makes us a worse team scoring wise, which is good for the tank.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:56 am    Post subject:

TylersLakers wrote:
Great work. It clearly shows how valuable Lou and Nick's scoring is to the team.

As mentioned above, those points would certainly be scored by someone else -- but.. to what extent? That's why I don't think it's as flawed as the posters above are making it out to be.

Not having Nick and Lou certainly makes us a worse team scoring wise, which is good for the tank.


It is flawed, b/c although Lou scores in bunches, we don't how the team would be if there was more of an unselfish mindset on the 2nd unit and others scored.

It's not a zero sum analysis.
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AshesToAshes
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:06 am    Post subject:

Without any stats...

Nick has shown up / woken up from his rockstar nightmare.
Lou has done well for someone who's the 6th man for the raptors.

And lets not act like every team is not surprised when this team actually tries to win instead of tanking or giving their lineup ideas / bench some run and testing against us.

Bottom of the barrel playing against top 1-3 teams in the west in the playoffs? we don't have a single guy to prevent the brooms from coming out... yet.

but not like OKC knew they'd be handing away any chance at a trophy by letting hardin go.
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governator
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:33 am    Post subject:

This proves Lou and Nick are solid bench/borderline starters... aka trade commodities, not sure if it tells anything about the young guys
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:40 am    Post subject:

Any game where Nick Young is a top scorer is a credit to the young guys. His big games happen when the young guys are getting him open shots. Lou kills ball movement and I wouldn't mind seeing how the team looks if he's traded or misses a few games. I really don't believe it would be that detrimental to team success.
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justsomelakerfan
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:48 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
Any game where Nick Young is a top scorer is a credit to the young guys. His big games happen when the young guys are getting him open shots. Lou kills ball movement and I wouldn't mind seeing how the team looks if he's traded or misses a few games. I really don't believe it would be that detrimental to team success.


Nick has a perfect vet role on any young team. The Lou minutes are what can be detrimental to DLOs needed minutes in 4th quarters despite him being an absolute flamethrower.
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:41 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
Any game where Nick Young is a top scorer is a credit to the young guys. His big games happen when the young guys are getting him open shots. Lou kills ball movement and I wouldn't mind seeing how the team looks if he's traded or misses a few games. I really don't believe it would be that detrimental to team success.

Agree. I'll put it this way. We'll definitely win less games with Lou now, but the hope is that we'll play the games in a way that will be more conducive to winning once our talent is better (I.e young guys get older)
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:48 am    Post subject:

All I'm seeing is that we're getting our young players more time to develop and we're getting a better chance at keeping our pick
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject:

We're 18-33 with Nick; 1-6 without him.

Lou hasn't missed a game.

They've been two of our best players, so sure we'd probably have a worse record without them. How worse is anyone's guess.

I'm not really concerned about the w-l record in terms of evaluating the younger guys. None of them are blowing my socks off, but it's too early to evaluate them.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:41 pm    Post subject:

meh, aside from the point redistribution, how do you factor in the possibility of JC developing into a non-chucker and the benefits conferred with the 2nd unit actually running a more structured offense? Maybe the youngins getting into a better rhythm with more shots (maybe that makes them more engaged on defense) -- the Ewing effect?

Hard to say
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:07 pm    Post subject:

So, end up 27 wins with Lou gobbling up precious developmental minutes?

Or win 25 games without Lou and guys like DLO getting precious developmental minutes?
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:09 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So, end up 27 wins with Lou gobbling up precious developmental minutes?

Or win 25 games without Lou and guys like DLO getting precious developmental minutes?
Well it's definitely possible we win 18 games without Lou and Nick as well. It's really hard to say, that's the problem with these kinds of hypotheticals. Moving forward I want to see DLO & JC assume Lou's responsibility though.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So, end up 27 wins with Lou gobbling up precious developmental minutes?

Or win 25 games without Lou and guys like DLO getting precious developmental minutes?
Well it's definitely possible we win 18 games without Lou and Nick as well. It's really hard to say, that's the problem with these kinds of hypotheticals. Moving forward I want to see DLO & JC assume Lou's responsibility though.


Well, we're already at 19, so I'm thinking prospectively (and I can easily see us going 6-19 without Lou).
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tox
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:13 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
tox wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So, end up 27 wins with Lou gobbling up precious developmental minutes?

Or win 25 games without Lou and guys like DLO getting precious developmental minutes?
Well it's definitely possible we win 18 games without Lou and Nick as well. It's really hard to say, that's the problem with these kinds of hypotheticals. Moving forward I want to see DLO & JC assume Lou's responsibility though.


Well, we're already at 19, so I'm thinking prospectively (and I can easily see us going 6-19 without Lou).
Oh I see, I thought you meant retroactively if we didn't have them all season.

Yeah definitely, I just don't see any logic in keeping Lou. He'd be valuable in our playoffs dream next year -- but again, at what cost?
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
tox wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So, end up 27 wins with Lou gobbling up precious developmental minutes?

Or win 25 games without Lou and guys like DLO getting precious developmental minutes?
Well it's definitely possible we win 18 games without Lou and Nick as well. It's really hard to say, that's the problem with these kinds of hypotheticals. Moving forward I want to see DLO & JC assume Lou's responsibility though.


Well, we're already at 19, so I'm thinking prospectively (and I can easily see us going 6-19 without Lou).
Oh I see, I thought you meant retroactively if we didn't have them all season.

Yeah definitely, I just don't see any logic in keeping Lou. He'd be valuable in our playoffs dream next year -- but again, at what cost?


Sure. So long as 1 of JC/Lou is gone, and the 4 guard logjam is undone, I'm good.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject:

here's another quick and dirty way of calculating it

WS for Lou: 5.1

WS for Swaggy: 3.3

5.1 + 3.3 = 8.4, so subtract 8.4 wins

nick and lou have played a total of 2754 minutes

dlo ws/48: .032
clarkson ws/48: .027

2754 = 48*57.375

average ws/48 for dlo and clarkson is .0295

.0295*57.375= 1.69 wins

so total impact on wins would be +1.69 - 8.4 = -6.71

in other words, we might be around 13-45 instead of 19-39.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:18 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
here's another quick and dirty way of calculating it

WS for Lou: 5.1

WS for Swaggy: 3.3

5.1 + 3.3 = 8.4, so subtract 8.4 wins

nick and lou have played a total of 2754 minutes

dlo ws/48: .032
clarkson ws/48: .027

2754 = 48*57.375

average ws/48 for dlo and clarkson is .0295

.0295*57.375= 1.69 wins

so total impact on wins would be +1.69 - 8.4 = -6.71

in other words, we might be around 13-45 instead of 19-39.


Sure, if you did it that way (and of course not factoring in how much better DLO/JC might have played with a 3 guard rotation). But I don't get why the OP is factoring no Lou AND Swaggy.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:25 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
here's another quick and dirty way of calculating it

WS for Lou: 5.1

WS for Swaggy: 3.3

5.1 + 3.3 = 8.4, so subtract 8.4 wins

nick and lou have played a total of 2754 minutes

dlo ws/48: .032
clarkson ws/48: .027

2754 = 48*57.375

average ws/48 for dlo and clarkson is .0295

.0295*57.375= 1.69 wins

so total impact on wins would be +1.69 - 8.4 = -6.71

in other words, we might be around 13-45 instead of 19-39.


Sure, if you did it that way (and of course not factoring in how much better DLO/JC might have played with a 3 guard rotation). But I don't get why the OP is factoring no Lou AND Swaggy.


dlo/jc might be better might be worse. no real way of telling but i think on aggregate their season ws/48 should be reasonable.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:40 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
here's another quick and dirty way of calculating it

WS for Lou: 5.1

WS for Swaggy: 3.3

5.1 + 3.3 = 8.4, so subtract 8.4 wins

nick and lou have played a total of 2754 minutes

dlo ws/48: .032
clarkson ws/48: .027

2754 = 48*57.375

average ws/48 for dlo and clarkson is .0295

.0295*57.375= 1.69 wins

so total impact on wins would be +1.69 - 8.4 = -6.71

in other words, we might be around 13-45 instead of 19-39.


Sure, if you did it that way (and of course not factoring in how much better DLO/JC might have played with a 3 guard rotation). But I don't get why the OP is factoring no Lou AND Swaggy.

Honestly, I just wanted to have the discussion. I think it's worth having. I would welcome a scientific analysis. You can throw out all of the numbers in my post too, I never claimed to be an expert.

My point was not to pinpoint the exact number of wins we would have without Nick and Lou. The point is that they were the major factors in a majority of our wins, and so using the win total to measure improvement in the young core over last year might not necessarily be an accurate measure.

The young core leading us to wins is exciting, even if it decreases our draft chances. On the other hand, a lot of people seem to feel that Nick and Lou, two guys who probably won't be on the team next year, leading us to wins is nothing to be excited about and actually hurts the team long term. So let's talk about it.

My feeling is that the notion of "17 to 27 is a big improvement for a young team" is fool's gold and doesn't actually suggest substantial development from our young core, because it's not the young core that's winning most of these games.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:41 pm    Post subject:

I think the problem is that we don't know whether that's true. Would more extended minutes for DLO/JC be better? Who knows?
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:43 pm    Post subject:

any player who celebrates when we suck as a team, i don't want. any player who is a me first player whenever he hits a 3, i dont want. players like that aren't serious enough about winning.

cant wait until nick young is off this team
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:50 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I think the problem is that we don't know whether that's true. Would more extended minutes for DLO/JC be better? Who knows?

We may have the opportunity to find out soon. I'm a fan of the team, I would love to think that Lou and Swaggy were parking brakes, and that the minute DLo gets consistent minutes, he starts tearing it up and winning games. That once we get guys who pass Ingram the ball, he starts looking like the player we thought we were drafting.

I actually watch games too, so I don't expect it to happen based on what I've seen. But I would love it to.

I'm just prepared for it to get really ugly. Imagine not winning a game for the rest of the season, and then losing the pick.
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