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Dreamshake
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject:

USCandLakers wrote:
"Don't engage Dreamshake. Don't engage Dreamshake."

engages Dreamshake.

immediately regrets it.


Every time.


You said the greater amount of wins has NOTHING to do with Harden and then regret engaging me? Man please.....
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:24 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:

OKC is probably going to wind up with only a few less wins than Houston, so the "superior record" argument is less persuasive than it was when Curry beat Harden. Harden has had a really good year, and he would probably win if the Rockets won 60. But they didn't.


1. 8 wins is not a few less wins.

2. The Spurs have 61 wins this season and Westbrook is going to win over Leonard too. The trip dub has made wins irrelevant.


I don't think wins are irrelevant.

The Spurs have 61 wins, but they won 67 last year. It's very hard for a guy to win MVP if his team win total drops that much.

That said, I suspect Kawhi will get some votes largely because of his team's success.


I meant the heavy win criteria is irrelevant. OKC will win no more than 48 games. That win total won't get dudes the MVP, but the trip dub has made that criteria for high wins irrelevant.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:26 pm    Post subject:

I feel like MVP should just go to whoever has the highest Wins over Replacement value.
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USCandLakers
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:41 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
USCandLakers wrote:
"Don't engage Dreamshake. Don't engage Dreamshake."

engages Dreamshake.

immediately regrets it.


Every time.


You said the greater amount of wins has NOTHING to do with Harden and then regret engaging me? Man please.....


Are you playing dumb? I can never tell.

Let's say for argument's sake that Harden and Westbrook's seasons were virtually identical.

Where do you believe the 8 more wins come from?
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Dreamshake
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:54 pm    Post subject:

USCandLakers wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
USCandLakers wrote:
"Don't engage Dreamshake. Don't engage Dreamshake."

engages Dreamshake.

immediately regrets it.


Every time.


You said the greater amount of wins has NOTHING to do with Harden and then regret engaging me? Man please.....


Are you playing dumb? I can never tell.

Let's say for argument's sake that Harden and Westbrook's seasons were virtually identical.

Where do you believe the 8 more wins come from?


If you want to engage save your insults, or either take your advice and don't engage. It's not my fault you made an outlandish statement.

That's the funny thing....THEIR STATS ARE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL (offensively)!!!! They are separated by 3 points and 2 rebounds.

Harden does not have significantly more talent on his team than Westbrook. It's arguable that he doesn't have more talent period. No one thought he did when everyone made predictions about team record or supporting casts this preseason. But to answer your question, I think the Houston talent is better utilized for their skillsets. We don't have many defenders so we went all-in on a scheme that basically ignores defense. We actually don't have a lot of great shooters either (we have two, and one of them shoots worse than Oladipo this season). But our system fits Harden better. OKC doesn't have a lot of shooters but they have better defenders and a better frontline. And how do they utilize that talent? By letting a POINT GUARD take the most shots in basketball and constantly ignore perimeter defense to stay in the lane and get rebounds. Yeah, that's what you want a point guard doing....shooting more than anyone else and not playing perimeter defense. If they played to the strengths of their team more I think the could have more wins. But part of their focus is clearly getting one player a statistical benchmark.
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
I feel like MVP should just go to whoever has the highest Wins over Replacement value.


I think Laker fans would hate that. By that approach, Lebron would have 8 MVPs and Kobe none. In fact, Steve Francis would have more MVPs than Kobe.

In any case, I would never select MVP based solely on a statistical formula.


Last edited by activeverb on Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:28 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
USCandLakers wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
USCandLakers wrote:
"Don't engage Dreamshake. Don't engage Dreamshake."

engages Dreamshake.

immediately regrets it.


Every time.


You said the greater amount of wins has NOTHING to do with Harden and then regret engaging me? Man please.....


Are you playing dumb? I can never tell.

Let's say for argument's sake that Harden and Westbrook's seasons were virtually identical.

Where do you believe the 8 more wins come from?


If you want to engage save your insults, or either take your advice and don't engage. It's not my fault you made an outlandish statement.

That's the funny thing....THEIR STATS ARE VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL (offensively)!!!! They are separated by 3 points and 2 rebounds.

Harden does not have significantly more talent on his team than Westbrook. It's arguable that he doesn't have more talent period. No one thought he did when everyone made predictions about team record or supporting casts this preseason. But to answer your question, I think the Houston talent is better utilized for their skillsets. We don't have many defenders so we went all-in on a scheme that basically ignores defense. We actually don't have a lot of great shooters either (we have two, and one of them shoots worse than Oladipo this season). But our system fits Harden better. OKC doesn't have a lot of shooters but they have better defenders and a better frontline. And how do they utilize that talent? By letting a POINT GUARD take the most shots in basketball and constantly ignore perimeter defense to stay in the lane and get rebounds. Yeah, that's what you want a point guard doing....shooting more than anyone else and not playing perimeter defense. If they played to the strengths of their team more I think the could have more wins. But part of their focus is clearly getting one player a statistical benchmark.


When you respond with nothing but a bunch of smiley faces, you do nothing but confirm fears about engagement with you. Then to go on and try to justify it...only goes onto further confirm them.

3 points and 2 rebounds is not virtually identical.

You really don't have any shame, do you? Depending on the argument you're trying to win, you'll either prop up your role players or dismiss them.

You have shooters that space the floor. Most of the time all Harden has to do to generate an assist opportunity is drive and kick. In transition he has opportunities to pass to open shooters.

You are being predictably dishonest saying that OKC would have had an opportunity for more wins by playing in a different manner. There is no scheme that could possibly make use of Roberson on offense. None of their bigs space the floor, and you can't play off a post presence with a lack of shooters.

Go ahead and recommend a scheme that would allow them to "play to their strengths."
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:42 pm    Post subject:

USCandLakers wrote:


When you respond with nothing but a bunch of smiley faces, you do nothing but confirm fears about engagement with you. Then to go on and try to justify it...only goes onto further confirm them.


I responded with nothing but laughing faces to a clearly ridiculous comment. To say that any of these MVP candidates have nada to do with the wins would qualify.


USCandLakers wrote:

You really don't have any shame, do you? Depending on the argument you're trying to win, you'll either prop up your role players or dismiss them.


My argument hasn't changed. Feel free to link the inconsistencies.

USCandLakers wrote:

You have shooters that space the floor.


And OKC has better defenders and a better scorer in Kanter than anyone else we have on our roster. But as I noted earlier, they don't play to their team strengths.

USCandLakers wrote:

Most of the time all Harden has to do to generate an assist opportunity is drive and kick. In transition he has opportunities to pass to open shooters.


This is false. Or better yet, you greatly oversimplify what he has to do. Harden is one of the best drivers and finishers around the rim in the league. He is also a great passer. The players are getting wide open looks off of the attention he demands.

USCandLakers wrote:

You are being predictably dishonest saying that OKC would have had an opportunity for more wins by playing in a different manner. There is no scheme that could possibly make use of Roberson on offense. None of their bigs space the floor, and you can't play off a post presence with a lack of shooters.


Sure you can. We saw Harden do just that two years ago. Who is the post presence on this team? Where are the great shooters?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2015.html

USCandLakers wrote:
Go ahead and recommend a scheme that would allow them to "play to their strengths."


One that has their PG actually defending on the perimeter instead of being in the paint chasing boards when he has capable bigs. One that has a PG, who shoots 43% at that, not taking ten more shots per night than anyone else. Oladipo can score. Kanter shoots over 55% for the past 3 straight years. Why is Westbrook getting 14 more shots a night than him? Build your identity with defense when you lack tons of scoring options. But that's hard to do when one player is ignoring perimeter defense.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:

OKC is probably going to wind up with only a few less wins than Houston, so the "superior record" argument is less persuasive than it was when Curry beat Harden. Harden has had a really good year, and he would probably win if the Rockets won 60. But they didn't.


1. 8 wins is not a few less wins.

2. The Spurs have 61 wins this season and Westbrook is going to win over Leonard too. The trip dub has made wins irrelevant.


I don't think wins are irrelevant.

The Spurs have 61 wins, but they won 67 last year. It's very hard for a guy to win MVP if his team win total drops that much.

That said, I suspect Kawhi will get some votes largely because of his team's success.


I meant the heavy win criteria is irrelevant. OKC will win no more than 48 games. That win total won't get dudes the MVP, but the trip dub has made that criteria for high wins irrelevant.


The win advantage might not be enough to overcome the Triple-Dub season. Voters might also give more weight towards Coach 'A than Harden for the Rox season.

Harden has been up against some historically great individual and team seasons recently. Between JH and RW, I'd lean towards RW. Doesn't help that I don't particularly like either guy, so I'm biased. For RW, it's the double-double without points that's impressive. Volume shooting @ 42% to get 31ppg, not so excited about that. I could live with whatever. Hope neither guy wins, honestly.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:44 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Dreamshake wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:

OKC is probably going to wind up with only a few less wins than Houston, so the "superior record" argument is less persuasive than it was when Curry beat Harden. Harden has had a really good year, and he would probably win if the Rockets won 60. But they didn't.


1. 8 wins is not a few less wins.

2. The Spurs have 61 wins this season and Westbrook is going to win over Leonard too. The trip dub has made wins irrelevant.


I don't think wins are irrelevant.

The Spurs have 61 wins, but they won 67 last year. It's very hard for a guy to win MVP if his team win total drops that much.

That said, I suspect Kawhi will get some votes largely because of his team's success.


I meant the heavy win criteria is irrelevant. OKC will win no more than 48 games. That win total won't get dudes the MVP, but the trip dub has made that criteria for high wins irrelevant.


I see what you're saying. Winning 55 games or so is more of a pattern than a criteria. We'll see if the pattern holds this year.

Where Westbrook is lucky is that his main competitor for the award will have a fairly modest win total himself. If Harden wins MVP, he'll have one of the lower win totals over the past several decades.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:02 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:

OKC is probably going to wind up with only a few less wins than Houston, so the "superior record" argument is less persuasive than it was when Curry beat Harden. Harden has had a really good year, and he would probably win if the Rockets won 60. But they didn't.


1. 8 wins is not a few less wins.

2. The Spurs have 61 wins this season and Westbrook is going to win over Leonard too. The trip dub has made wins irrelevant.


Not irrelevant, but certainly voters would have given wins less weight than norm. If OKC weren't a playoff team, or barely hacking .500, RW would probably have no chance of winning. An intangible factor is KD. Because of his relocation, it has inflated RW's value in people's eyes, while simultaneously making SC less valuable. Which is really unfortunate.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:47 pm    Post subject:

USCandLakers wrote:
"Don't engage Dreamshake. Don't engage Dreamshake."

engages Dreamshake.

immediately regrets it.


Every time.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:34 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake...give it up dude and accept your fate.

The writings on the wall and past wrongs will be overturned. No more of this bs wins argument...give to the most valuable player.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:52 pm    Post subject:

audioaxes wrote:
before this season began how many really thought it was reasonably possible for a player to average a triple double in today's NBA?


Well, i did while there were rumors that Westbrook might end up on the trading block when Durant left OKC, i was one of few posters here not afraid to trade D'Angelo or Ingram or even both for Westbrook:

07.07.2016.
Cookies & Cream wrote:
plus i want to have Westbrook now, i wouldn't be suprised if he averages triple double next season with all the freedom he'll have for the first time in his career.

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?p=6900238&highlight=#6900238

08.07.2016.
Cookies & Cream wrote:
Right now Westbrook is the second best player in the NBA, just wait for next season when he'll have all the freedom that he never had because he needed to share the spotlight, i won't be surprised if he averages close to triple-double.

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?p=6902163&highlight=#6902163
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:51 pm    Post subject:

If the Rox had over 60 wins and were ahead of the Spurs in the standings, I think Harden would win. But mid-50's in wins, #3 seed...won't make people go gaga enough vs. the Triple-Double season. If I were forced to bet, I'd go with RW. I see why Harden loyalists would be sore. That said, who knows what will happen. Things are said to generate buzz, yet when it comes time to actually casting a vote, might be different.

Leonard's "problem" is that he rarely puts up those glittering, crazy stat games. Some nice double-doubles, but not many with 40pts, 50 pts. And quite simply, defense isn't much of a factor in any of these votings. MVP mainly an offensive award. Defense stalwarts have their own award. He puts up good numbers and quietly goes about his business. Overall, it works against him. He won't win.

Interesting lack of buzz for Isaiah Thomas, btw.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:47 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Rebounds by guards tend to be less valuable


Why?


I'm speaking in broad generalizations here. There have been some really clutch, important rebounds by guards. I am NOT saying that rebounding by guards is worthless, just that it is less valuable.

Having said that, a lot of rebounds by guards are uncontested. In the case of Westbrook, you will see the big men just let him take the rebound. That's fine from a team perspective, as it puts the ball in the hands of your PG immediately, but it isn't as valuable as a contested rebound. OKC was going to get the ball anyway.

Also, if a guard is rebounding, he isn't defending on the perimeter. As has been well documented, Westbrook has neglected his perimeter defense to chase rebounds. Some of his defensive stats are just plain embarrassing. DeAndre Jordan has contested more three point shots than Russell Westbrook. Really? Westbrook is last in the league among PGs in opponent's eFG%. Really? Can you imagine Kobe blowing off perimeter defense to chase rebounds?


If any player at any position is grabbing a rebound he's neglecting his man. If a big grabs a board he isn't boxing out his man or contesting a shot. If a Forward is grabbing a board he isn't covering the corner 3 or the elbow. And if we bring Defense into the debate, it's not like James Harden is going to benefit. He's the poster boy for terrible defense.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:34 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
If any player at any position is grabbing a rebound he's neglecting his man. If a big grabs a board he isn't boxing out his man or contesting a shot. If a Forward is grabbing a board he isn't covering the corner 3 or the elbow. And if we bring Defense into the debate, it's not like James Harden is going to benefit. He's the poster boy for terrible defense.


I don't know about that. If a big man boxes out his man, he should get the rebound. That's the whole point of boxing out. Centers and forwards will often be in or near the paint as part of their ordinary defensive duties. A point guard usually won't.

Anyway, I'm not here to advocate for Harden. I would, in fact, vote for Harden over Westbrook, but I don't get a vote. You asked me why rebounds by a PG are generally less valuable, and I told you. This is not unique to Westbrook, though he has sort of made a farce of the whole thing. I felt the same way about a lot of Rondo's triple doubles back in the day.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject:

rebirthoftheM wrote:
Dreamshake...give it up dude and accept your fate.

The writings on the wall and past wrongs will be overturned. No more of this bs wins argument...give to the most valuable player.


And you are only valuable to the league if you are winning.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:58 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:
Dreamshake...give it up dude and accept your fate.

The writings on the wall and past wrongs will be overturned. No more of this bs wins argument...give to the most valuable player.


And you are only valuable to the league if you are winning.


It's fine line to me.

If you make winning too big a factor, you penalize a guy for having bad teammates.

However, if you say winning doesn't matter at all, you can reward a guy for having bad teammates because he has more ability to take control and pad his stats.

Factoring in teammates is really hard.

For me, I just narrow down MVP to 2 or 3 candidates and then look at everything. With such a small universe, you don't need a one-size-fits-all formula.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:00 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:
Dreamshake...give it up dude and accept your fate.

The writings on the wall and past wrongs will be overturned. No more of this bs wins argument...give to the most valuable player.


And you are only valuable to the league if you are winning.


It's fine line to me.

If you make winning too big a factor, you penalize a guy for having bad teammates.

However, if you say winning doesn't matter at all, you can reward a guy for having bad teammates because he has more ability to take control and pad his stats.

Factoring in teammates is really hard.

For me, I just narrow down MVP to 2 or 3 candidates and then look at everything. With such a small universe, you don't need a one-size-fits-all formula.


How do you factor it in? Look at the talent/fit of the team, and then look at the metrics that quantify how a team does without its star player.

Right now, the thunder are 46-34 with Westbrook (he missed tonights game). Solid 6th seed. But when Westbrook sits (as the data shows), they are one of the worst teams in the league. That is "impact"...

Then consider James Harden, whose team is able to survive without him on the floor, due to offensive scheme that Mike D'antoni runs. Unless of course you want to invest into the narrative that Harden's relatively more "team friendly" approach provides an environment for his teammates to even succeed when he is out of the game (btw, Harden and Westbrook are pretty much neck and neck as far as the amount of touches they get in the game- they are both very ball dominant) which to me is pseudo analysis and cannot be proven.

Harden might only take 19 shots, but that's because he averages 11 FT's a game, which is higher than his FG's made , so his FGA is real deceptive. So the gap between their ball dominance and high volume shooting has been overstated.

Westbrook aint Anthony Davis or something who puts up beast stats and cannot win. Or KG in 2006 and 2007. He is like Kobe in 06... putting up monstrous stats due to the lack of talent on his squad and carrying them to places they shouldn't be in.

If that isn't play of an MVP, then I don't know what it is.

Westbrook's value goes way beyond his own individual stats.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:25 am    Post subject:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Team seemed to do just fine without their star player last night....

FYI, Westbrook avg's 0.4 less FTA's per game than Harden.

The team is not devoid of talent. Kanter, Oladipo and Adams are considered top 100 players. Some have some of them as top 50 players. Taj, McDermott and Roberson aren't scrubs (and Roberson is one of the best defenders in basketball). Sabonis went lotto. His team doesn't have another star player. His team doesn't have championship type talent. His team has enough talent for pretty much everyone, including Vegas, to predict that they would make the playoffs this season as a mid to bottom seed.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:46 am    Post subject:

rebirthoftheM wrote:
Right now, the thunder are 46-34 with Westbrook (he missed tonights game). Solid 6th seed. But when Westbrook sits (as the data shows), they are one of the worst teams in the league. That is "impact"...


It's hard to separate this from "environmental" factors. OKC's average margin of victory is +0.8. Houston's average margin of victory is +5.8. Under those circumstances, you would expect Westbrook's absence to have a greater impact than Harden's. Just for sake of discussion, assume that they are both worth +4.0 (which is a number I just plucked out of the air). Houston would be +1.8 without Harden, and OKC would be -3.2 without Westbrook. Does that mean that Westbrook is more valuable? In a sense, it does, but that isn't what most people consider to be the essence of the MVP award.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:56 am    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Team seemed to do just fine without their star player last night....

FYI, Westbrook avg's 0.4 less FTA's per game than Harden.



Probably more of a reflection on the Wolves, but it can be used as evidence that OKC has players that are pretty good. We'll never have the sample size needed for anything to be conclusive.

Every voter will have his/her own criteria, just like how different officiating crews will judge certain plays and hard fouls differently.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:21 pm    Post subject:

Dreamshake wrote:
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Team seemed to do just fine without their star player last night....

FYI, Westbrook avg's 0.4 less FTA's per game than Harden.

The team is not devoid of talent. Kanter, Oladipo and Adams are considered top 100 players. Some have some of them as top 50 players. Taj, McDermott and Roberson aren't scrubs (and Roberson is one of the best defenders in basketball). Sabonis went lotto. His team doesn't have another star player. His team doesn't have championship type talent. His team has enough talent for pretty much everyone, including Vegas, to predict that they would make the playoffs this season as a mid to bottom seed.


Does he have any former champions on his team? Ryan Anderson is a great shooter, Eric G a very talented starter Level pg. Lou now nene quality experienced guys. Capela. Valuable and underrated Draymondish personality PBeverly on D . And MDA with the best offense matching Harden to a T with its corresponding match made in Harden matching D. It is a very fortuitous situation for Harden that he maximized into a great season. As did the team.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:47 pm    Post subject:

focus wrote:

Ryan Anderson is a great shooter


And he sucks on defense. Roberson is a great defender that sucks on offense.

focus wrote:
Eric G a very talented starter Level pg.


And yet worse than Oladipo.

focus wrote:

Lou now nene quality experienced guys. Capela.


And Adams, Kanter and Taj aren't?

Neither guy is playing with elite talent. However, near everyone had the OKC talent above the Houston talent preseason. Same for predicted win totals.

Westbrook is not playing with scrubs. Westbrook hasn't drug some talent ridden team to the postseason.
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