Tracy McGrady makes the Hall of Fame
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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:22 pm    Post subject:

So why is Joe Johnson only a 50% chance of getting in? He has nice stats in his prime and is a 7 X All Star.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:58 pm    Post subject:

[quote="vanexelent"]So why is Joe Johnson only a 50% chance of getting in? He has nice stats in his prime and is a 7 X All Star.[/quote

His stats are good, but not overwhelming even in his prime. Throughout his career he was hardly ever in the top 10 in any statistical categories.

On the Hall of Fame monitor, he's pretty close to Lou Hudson, which seems like a pretty reasonable career comparison. Both excellent players but I wouldn't consider either a Hall of Famer.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:25 pm    Post subject:

Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:38 pm    Post subject:

Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Sure, he was the face of Orlando.

One point of this is thread is many, if not most Hall of Famers aren't legends. For every MJ, Bird and Magic in the Hall there is a Jamaal Wilkes, Jojo White, and Mitch Richmond.
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vanexelent
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 6:43 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:


His stats are good, but not overwhelming even in his prime. Throughout his career he was hardly ever in the top 10 in any statistical categories.

On the Hall of Fame monitor, he's pretty close to Lou Hudson, which seems like a pretty reasonable career comparison. Both excellent players but I wouldn't consider either a Hall of Famer.


Johnson was in the Top 10 in scoring a few years. Chris Bosh will probably be in the HOF and he's rarely been in the top 10 in points or rebounds. But he's played in 11 All Star games and attached himself to Lebron for a couple rings.

Of players with 7 or more All Star appearances, only Larry Foust, Grant Hill and Jack Sikma are NOT in the HOF. The others currently playing or not eligible will most likely get in.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:48 am    Post subject:

Basketball Fan wrote:
Had he stayed healthy I would say yes but given how his career actually played out I would say borderline

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:52 am    Post subject:

Will Antawn Jamison make it?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Sure, he was the face of Orlando.


And the Rockets.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:33 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:
activeverb wrote:
His stats are good, but not overwhelming even in his prime. Throughout his career he was hardly ever in the top 10 in any statistical categories.

On the Hall of Fame monitor, he's pretty close to Lou Hudson, which seems like a pretty reasonable career comparison. Both excellent players but I wouldn't consider either a Hall of Famer.


Johnson was in the Top 10 in scoring a few years. Chris Bosh will probably be in the HOF and he's rarely been in the top 10 in points or rebounds. But he's played in 11 All Star games and attached himself to Lebron for a couple rings.

Of players with 7 or more All Star appearances, only Larry Foust, Grant Hill and Jack Sikma are NOT in the HOF. The others currently playing or not eligible will most likely get in.


Bosh gains points for playing on two title teams. In fact, titles are a pretty big component of the formula, just as they are with real world voters. Bosh also loses points due to his height, believe it or not.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Remember that this is a prediction tool. It predicts who will be elected. It doesn't try to tell you whether the result is justified. If there is a real world correlation to height, then it belongs in the model.

It's interesting that the model uses peak WS as a stat metric, rather than any kind of career metric. There are leaderboard components, too. However, the items with the most weight, but a wide margin, are all star selections, titles, and peak WS.

Again, this is just a model for making predictions. However, it does not surprise me that peak value gets so much weight. Voters tend to care a lot more about how good you were at your best, as opposed to how good you were over an extended period of time. Bosh kills JJ on peak WS.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:43 am    Post subject:

McGrady fits the bill, even if I dont' like it. Seems like if you make a few All Star teams now you're a HOFer.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject:

vanexelent wrote:


Johnson was in the Top 10 in scoring a few years. Chris Bosh will probably be in the HOF and he's rarely been in the top 10 in points or rebounds. But he's played in 11 All Star games and attached himself to Lebron for a couple rings. .



Actually, Johnson has never been in top 10 in scoring average or points in any year his entire career. The only top 10 things he's done have to do with the amount he's played -- games, minutes, FG attempts.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
vanexelent wrote:
activeverb wrote:
His stats are good, but not overwhelming even in his prime. Throughout his career he was hardly ever in the top 10 in any statistical categories.

On the Hall of Fame monitor, he's pretty close to Lou Hudson, which seems like a pretty reasonable career comparison. Both excellent players but I wouldn't consider either a Hall of Famer.


Johnson was in the Top 10 in scoring a few years. Chris Bosh will probably be in the HOF and he's rarely been in the top 10 in points or rebounds. But he's played in 11 All Star games and attached himself to Lebron for a couple rings.

Of players with 7 or more All Star appearances, only Larry Foust, Grant Hill and Jack Sikma are NOT in the HOF. The others currently playing or not eligible will most likely get in.


Bosh gains points for playing on two title teams. In fact, titles are a pretty big component of the formula, just as they are with real world voters. Bosh also loses points due to his height, believe it or not.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Remember that this is a prediction tool. It predicts who will be elected. It doesn't try to tell you whether the result is justified. If there is a real world correlation to height, then it belongs in the model.

It's interesting that the model uses peak WS as a stat metric, rather than any kind of career metric. There are leaderboard components, too. However, the items with the most weight, but a wide margin, are all star selections, titles, and peak WS.

Again, this is just a model for making predictions. However, it does not surprise me that peak value gets so much weight. Voters tend to care a lot more about how good you were at your best, as opposed to how good you were over an extended period of time. Bosh kills JJ on peak WS.



Yeah, when I looked at Johnson's career totals, I was actually surprised how weak they were. The case for him is really about all-star appearances. His stats, other awards (like all-NBA), and rings are all pretty weak for an Hall of Famer. I thought his peak stats would be better than they were.

Bosh was a dominant performer as the main guy on a bad team and then a key third banana on two ring teams.

It's funny this is a Bosh vs. Johnson discussion. I consider Bosh a no-brainer and Johnson would be at the very bottom tier of Hall of Famers if he got in.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
It's funny this is a Bosh vs. Johnson discussion. I consider Bosh a no-brainer and Johnson would be at the very bottom tier of Hall of Famers if he got in.


My kneejerk reaction is no different from DMR's. I wouldn't consider either of them to be HoFers. But applying the standards of the real world, Bosh is a clear HoFer (11 ASGs, two titles) and Johnson at least has a shot.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:43 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
activeverb wrote:
It's funny this is a Bosh vs. Johnson discussion. I consider Bosh a no-brainer and Johnson would be at the very bottom tier of Hall of Famers if he got in.


My kneejerk reaction is no different from DMR's. I wouldn't consider either of them to be HoFers. But applying the standards of the real world, Bosh is a clear HoFer (11 ASGs, two titles) and Johnson at least has a shot.


Probably half the guys in the Hall aren't my idea of Hall of Famers. In just the last 10 years, I think they've made a lot of bad choices -- George McGinnis, Zelmo Beatty, Jojo White, Louie Dampier, Mitch Richmond, Guy Rodgers, Chet Walker, Jamaal Wilkes, Gus Johnson. Now they are letting in all these guys who weren't considered good enough for the past 10 or 20 years, I have no idea what the Hall of Fame standard is supposed to be.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:29 pm    Post subject:

What about Antawn Jamison? He has borderline HoF level stats but pretty much did not have a meaningful career.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:47 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
What about Antawn Jamison? He has borderline HoF level stats but pretty much did not have a meaningful career.


I don't see Jamison getting into the Hall. He has good stats, but he only made the all-star team twice, never made an all-NBA team, never won a ring, and was never a top 10 scorer. His peak years are good but not great. His biggest accomplishment was playing a long time and amassing 20,000 career points but longevity stuff doesn't matter much to Hall of Famer voters.

Basketball-Reference puts his chances of getting in at 0.6%. So basically a 1 out of 2000 chance.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 3:03 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
What about Antawn Jamison? He has borderline HoF level stats but pretty much did not have a meaningful career.


If you want a close case among recent players, try Shawn Marion. At his peak, he put up some good stats. He is a four time all star. He won a ring. He made the all NBA team a couple times. The tracker puts him at 75%. I don't think he makes it, but he might.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:01 pm    Post subject:

Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Never even to the 2nd round as the face of the org?

I think he gravy trained at the end of the bench for the Spurs one year.

He was a fine player but I am with DMR, the Hall of Fame should be for the truly great players. I also hate putting owners, coaches, refs in.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:36 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Never even to the 2nd round as the face of the org?

I think he gravy trained at the end of the bench for the Spurs one year.

He was a fine player but I am with DMR, the Hall of Fame should be for the truly great players. I also hate putting owners, coaches, refs in.


That was the year the Spurs blew game 6.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:48 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Never even to the 2nd round as the face of the org?

I think he gravy trained at the end of the bench for the Spurs one year.

He was a fine player but I am with DMR, the Hall of Fame should be for the truly great players. I also hate putting owners, coaches, refs in.


A lot of people feel that way, but in reality no Hall of Fame operates that way. The "truly great players" could be only 15 or 20 guys or even less. With that standard, you would have many years where no new guys would be inducted, and interest in the Halls would fall and they would have trouble generating revenues and sustaining themselves.

Makes me wonder how many Lakers Hall of Famers would drop off "the truly great" list -- Jamaal Wilkes, Gail Goodrich, and probably James Worthy.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:02 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
CandyCanes wrote:
What about Antawn Jamison? He has borderline HoF level stats but pretty much did not have a meaningful career.


If you want a close case among recent players, try Shawn Marion. At his peak, he put up some good stats. He is a four time all star. He won a ring. He made the all NBA team a couple times. The tracker puts him at 75%. I don't think he makes it, but he might.


75%? I considered Marion to be on the same level as Lamar Odom, maybe slightly higher-- barely even an All-Star level player, let alone a Hall of Famer.

What about Derrick Rose?
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 5:54 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
LakerLanny wrote:
Hammett wrote:
Was T-Mac ever the face of an organization? He was good, but cmon there is another level that legends reside in. I am happy for him, though.


Never even to the 2nd round as the face of the org?

I think he gravy trained at the end of the bench for the Spurs one year.

He was a fine player but I am with DMR, the Hall of Fame should be for the truly great players. I also hate putting owners, coaches, refs in.


A lot of people feel that way, but in reality no Hall of Fame operates that way. The "truly great players" could be only 15 or 20 guys or even less. With that standard, you would have many years where no new guys would be inducted, and interest in the Halls would fall and they would have trouble generating revenues and sustaining themselves.

Makes me wonder how many Lakers Hall of Famers would drop off "the truly great" list -- Jamaal Wilkes, Gail Goodrich, and probably James Worthy.


Good point AV, ultimately I guess I forget that all HOF's are basically businesses that they want to generate interest in and have people visit.

Thus, they need inductees going in every year or else there would be no ceremony, etc.

As much as we all go back and forth on it (and I am guilty of it for sure) I wonder how many of us have ever been to the Basketball HOF? I know I haven't .

McGrady deserves to go based on the current criteria, I guess I am somewhat idealistic in my view that the "Hall of Fame" should be some kind of Mount Rushmore type honor when it is more like just the "Hall of Guys Who Made A Couple of All Star Teams and Owners People Liked"

Doesn't have quite the same ring!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:14 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
vanexelent wrote:


Johnson was in the Top 10 in scoring a few years. Chris Bosh will probably be in the HOF and he's rarely been in the top 10 in points or rebounds. But he's played in 11 All Star games and attached himself to Lebron for a couple rings. .



Actually, Johnson has never been in top 10 in scoring average or points in any year his entire career. The only top 10 things he's done have to do with the amount he's played -- games, minutes, FG attempts.



See below. For most of his prime he was Top 15 in both categories, often #11 or #12.

2005-2006 Season:
Points Per Game
1. Kobe Bryant LAL 31.6
2. Carmelo Anthony DEN 28.9
3. Gilbert Arenas WAS 28.4
4. LeBron James CLE 27.3
5. Michael Redd MIL 26.7
6. Ray Allen SEA 26.4
7. Allen Iverson* TOT 26.3
8. Vince Carter NJN 25.2
9. Joe Johnson ATL 25.0
10. Tracy McGrady HOU 24.6

2006-2007 Season:


Points Per Game
1. Kobe Bryant LAL 31.6
2. Carmelo Anthony DEN 28.9
3. Gilbert Arenas WAS 28.4
4. LeBron James CLE 27.3
5. Michael Redd MIL 26.7
6. Ray Allen SEA 26.4
7. Allen Iverson* TOT 26.3
8. Vince Carter NJN 25.2
9. Joe Johnson ATL 25.0
10. Tracy McGrady HOU 24.6




2007-2008 Season:

Points
1. Kobe Bryant LAL 2323
2. LeBron James CLE 2250
3. Allen Iverson* DEN 2164
4. Amar'e Stoudemire PHO 1989
5. Carmelo Anthony DEN 1978
6. Richard Jefferson NJN 1857
7. Dirk Nowitzki DAL 1817
8. Baron Davis GSW 1791
9. Jason Richardson CHA 1788
10. Joe Johnson ATL 1779
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:25 am    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
McGrady deserves to go based on the current criteria, I guess I am somewhat idealistic in my view that the "Hall of Fame" should be some kind of Mount Rushmore type honor when it is more like just the "Hall of Guys Who Made A Couple of All Star Teams and Owners People Liked" !


I hear you. I think the Hall has been letting in every borderline choice, and has been too liberal.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:


Bosh was a dominant performer as the main guy on a bad team


He averaged 20 PPG/ 9 RPG in Toronto. Dominant? Is Zach Randolph dominant? Because he did that for over a decade.
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