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TooMuchMajicBuss
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Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 21072
Location: In a white room, with black curtains near the station
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 Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:37 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | tox wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: |
In layman's terms - because it takes away the 47% chance we win a top 3 spot. 8.9 divided by the remaining 53 means there's a 17% chance our record versus Phoenix was the culprit.
IF we lose the pick, there's about a 1 in 6 chance it was because we finished better than Phoenix. But that's not where we're at now. Because it's still quite possible we win the pick, there's slightly less than a 1 in 10 chance the record vs. Phoenix actually affects the outcome. |
Yeah thanks. The bolded is the key point. |
Are you guys basically saying that of the 56 ping pong balls PHX would get, 47 of them are shared with us?
And so the point is, even if we lose the pick, chances are quite high that the ping pong ball drawn resulting in the lost pick would have been drawn anyway? |
I have to think about the first sentence, but the bolded is right on. 5 in 6 chance it would have been drawn that way anyway, IF we lose the pick. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:42 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | tox wrote: | | TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: |
In layman's terms - because it takes away the 47% chance we win a top 3 spot. 8.9 divided by the remaining 53 means there's a 17% chance our record versus Phoenix was the culprit.
IF we lose the pick, there's about a 1 in 6 chance it was because we finished better than Phoenix. But that's not where we're at now. Because it's still quite possible we win the pick, there's slightly less than a 1 in 10 chance the record vs. Phoenix actually affects the outcome. |
Yeah thanks. The bolded is the key point. |
Are you guys basically saying that of the 56 ping pong balls PHX would get, 47 of them are shared with us?
And so the point is, even if we lose the pick, chances are quite high that the ping pong ball drawn resulting in the lost pick would have been drawn anyway? |
I have to think about the first sentence, but the bolded is right on. 5 in 6 chance it would have been drawn that way anyway, IF we lose the pick. |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
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tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:49 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:56 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Hmm, maybe I got to the same place in a different way with luck. Haha. I just assumed that the 47 balls the Lakers have the Suns have too. When the Lakers pick a ball, it goes back in and PHX picks. Faulty reasoning? |
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lakermann44
Starting Rotation
Joined: 13 Apr 2001
Posts: 272
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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| maybe we better off losing this pick if we get to keep all our picks in a very potentially good 2018 draft |
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tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| ringfinger wrote: | | tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Hmm, maybe I got to the same place in a different way with luck. Haha. I just assumed that the 47 balls the Lakers have the Suns have too. When the Lakers pick a ball, it goes back in and PHX picks. Faulty reasoning? |
I think the analogy is confusing. If you're dead set on this analogy, then each ball represents a lottery outcome, and any outcome that has both the Lakers and the Suns in the Top-3 "belongs" to them both. Any outcome that has the Suns in the Top-3, but not the Lakers, belongs to the Suns and not the Lakers. And so forth.
Regardless, I think you get the gist of what that 17% represents. |
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ringfinger
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Joined: 08 Oct 2013
Posts: 29418
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: | | tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Hmm, maybe I got to the same place in a different way with luck. Haha. I just assumed that the 47 balls the Lakers have the Suns have too. When the Lakers pick a ball, it goes back in and PHX picks. Faulty reasoning? |
I think the analogy is confusing. If you're dead set on this analogy, then each ball represents a lottery outcome, and any outcome that has both the Lakers and the Suns in the Top-3 "belongs" to them both. Any outcome that has the Suns in the Top-3, but not the Lakers, belongs to the Suns and not the Lakers. And so forth.
Regardless, I think you get the gist of what that 17% represents. |
I do. I leave the stats to you tox. I just try to find ways create analogies for the less statistically inclined like me =) |
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TooMuchMajicBuss
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 21072
Location: In a white room, with black curtains near the station
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Yup. This.
TOX - think I can get CPE credit for posting on LG?  |
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venturalakersfan
Retired Number
Joined: 14 Apr 2001
Posts: 144456
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:20 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Would it matter that it is really combinations we are discussing, not single balls? Combinations of 14 balls? I would guess that has already been considered in the posted odds.
_________________
RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023. |
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tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Would it matter that it is really combinations we are discussing, not single balls? Combinations of 14 balls? I would guess that has already been considered in the posted odds. |
Yep to the bolded. |
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tox
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17876
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| Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: The Lakers have torpedoed their daft pick, and the worst part is..... |
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| TooMuchMajicBuss wrote: | | tox wrote: | | ringfinger wrote: |
Right. And I got there by doing 47/56 = 83.4%. Assuming 100 total balls LAL and PHX have the same 47. PHX gets 9 we don't get. |
Your post implies that if the Lakers keep their pick, the Suns will too.
In reality, it's more like:
The Lakers have 47 balls. The Suns have 56.
X balls are shared by both.
47-X balls belong to the Lakers and not the Suns.
56-X balls belong to the Suns and not the Lakers.
And the rest belong to neither.
I don't know what that number X is since I'm too lazy to do the math. |
Yup. This.
TOX - think I can get CPE credit for posting on LG? |
There's only one way to find out! |
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