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WeDidItReddit
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 Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:17 am Post subject: |
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| Everyone said Ingram was skinny last year and that was the reason why he wasn't playing well. Very few people say this about Lonzo but he is rather thin too. It's why he can't really finish in traffic or go to the rim even with his size. If he bulks up a bit next offseason I can see his game taking the next step in terms of dribble penetration leading to open looks. |
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:17 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Mike@LG wrote: | Yeah, teams are going under screens on him. Yet, LAL still up in pace, up in rebounds, and hell, even overall FG% is up compared to last year despite losing the 3 best shooters on the team.
I'd argue, that's WAY more than a few.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2018.html
Otherwise, he just wouldn't be on the floor. Luke wouldn't even play him. Yet, even the best +/- lineups have him in there. Why? Everything else that he does. |
If you're going to make a statistical argument, you will run right into RPM. Ball has the lowest ORPM in the league among point guards (-2.66). He is 87th out of 87. His DRPM was good early in the season. After the last two miserable games, his DRPM has plunged to 0.11. Overall, Ball is the third most effective PG on the team, behind Clarkson and Ennis.
Oh, and no, he is not in all of the best +/- five man units. More importantly, the two most common five man units involving Ball (in terms of minutes) have a negative +/-.
At this point in his career, Ball is not a very good player. That's not the end of the world. Just the same, there is no need to kid ourselves about it. If we were really trying to win, he would be coming off the bench and playing about 15-20 minutes per game. But we're trying to develop him, so he'll sink or swim in the starting lineup. |
And give him two good games and his RPM will go through another drastic fluctuation this early in the season. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| socaguy wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | al242 wrote: | | It has been acknowledged that Lonzo is a bust, if I were in Magic’s shoes I would hurry up and trade this scrub for a 2018 lottery pick before it’s too late. |
Go be like this somewhere else. |
why can't he be "like this" here? was he being disrespectful to another member? |
There are countless other places where you can be consistently thoughtless and reactionary while adding nothing to the conversation. This isn't one of them, at least not with the level of consistency that he "contributes" in that manner. |
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Mike@LG
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Location: Orange County, CA
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | You can teach shooting to a young player, and in most cases that player will improve over his career. But you CAN NOT change a young man’s mental make up. Lonzo is SOFT with capital S, that’s in his DNA, that’s not something he will change over time. I think having a dominant figure dad growing up forcing stuff onto him had something to do with it. |
I think this is exactly why Kyle Kuzma thinks he's misunderstood, and why multiple coaches and trainers RAVE about his competitiveness.
Being competitive doesn't have to be a facial expression or an extraverted sign.
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | He's had some poor games recently but we also saw him get a triple double one week ago. Youngest player in nba history. This tells me he has big upside. |
He's definitely not the youngest player in NBA history. But considering the primary thing he needs to learn is to shoot, and not so much with defense, rebounding, making halfcourt reads, PnR timing, etc...
He's not as much of a project as once expected by me, for sure. |
He is the youngest player in NBA history with a triple double. |
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:24 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Mike@LG wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | He's had some poor games recently but we also saw him get a triple double one week ago. Youngest player in nba history. This tells me he has big upside. |
He's definitely not the youngest player in NBA history. But considering the primary thing he needs to learn is to shoot, and not so much with defense, rebounding, making halfcourt reads, PnR timing, etc...
He's not as much of a project as once expected by me, for sure. |
He is the youngest player in NBA history with a triple double. |
Ah, thanks for the clarification.
But yeah, I really didn't expect his defense to be this good. I'm a big fan of how he digs at post players like Ron Harper.
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:26 am Post subject: |
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| I've said before, if he shoots like he did at UCLA he is an MVP candidate. Even as a big supporter, his offensive game has definitely been frustrating. He shouldn't be missing these layups and open shots. Let's see how he progresses. If he is shooting this bad at the end of the year, I'd be more worried. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:27 am Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | Mike@LG wrote: | | 32 wrote: | | He's had some poor games recently but we also saw him get a triple double one week ago. Youngest player in nba history. This tells me he has big upside. |
He's definitely not the youngest player in NBA history. But considering the primary thing he needs to learn is to shoot, and not so much with defense, rebounding, making halfcourt reads, PnR timing, etc...
He's not as much of a project as once expected by me, for sure. |
He is the youngest player in NBA history with a triple double. |
And if they get rid of one and done he likely won’t be.
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RI Laker
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:27 am Post subject: |
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His shooting is a concern. However, the glimpses (however small they have been) in other areas of his game (D, rebounding, blocking shots, court vision, ability to drive to the basket and usage of both hands,etc) over ride the shortcomings in his shooting by a WIDE margin. The kid will be a stud, so get on board with it. BALL, KUZ, and BI will be beasts down the road.
Last edited by RI Laker on Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:28 am; edited 1 time in total |
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JayLida
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | You can teach shooting to a young player, and in most cases that player will improve over his career. But you CAN NOT change a young man’s mental make up. Lonzo is SOFT with capital S, that’s in his DNA, that’s not something he will change over time. I think having a dominant figure dad growing up forcing stuff onto him had something to do with it. |
I’m just shocked you didn’t put some sort of stat that measures Lonzo’s “Softness” with a a capital S. 
Give me a break. Now your some sort of DNA family psychologist. Let the kid take his lumps without over analyzing him. I hope you all are on this board as Zo gets stronger and NBA physically ready.
A side note, Zo got a haircut do you think it will change the way he shoots
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:29 am Post subject: |
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| The objective part of his game that is soft is not drawing fouls even when he gets into the lane. |
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Car54
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:34 am Post subject: |
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| rogers49 wrote: | | El Seano wrote: | | How exactly can a player be top 10 in the league in assists and a bust at the same time? |
Kendall Marshall rings a bell? |
Marshall was 13th pick who avg 3 ast as a rookie. Not even close to being the same situation.
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:34 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLogic wrote: | | The objective part of his game that is soft is not drawing fouls even when he gets into the lane. |
Except, we knew that before he got drafted.
Still gets to the lane far more frequently than DAR during his rookie year. People forget, man.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/
There's no other PG except Lonzo on that page.
The fact that I'm considered a Lonzo defender, I find incredibly funny, especially with the zillions of Fultz vs. Ball arguments I dealt with all summer.
BTW, this isn't make up statistics.
Look at overall team effect despite losing 3 shooters compared to last year.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2018.html
Even FG%
#1 defensive rebounding
#15 in assists
#4 blocks
#4 total rebounding
#2 defensive rebounding
If you think this is solely on JR's improvement, Lopez, and KCP, you're sorely mistaken.
But sure, ignore the "real facts" if you'd like. |
What the heck, Mike?
1. Do you realize that the NBA.com chart ranks five man squads by minutes played? Those squads are not ranked by effectiveness. The fact that Ball is on that page is because we play him lots of minutes. Here are the five man units for the Lakers:
http://www.82games.com/1718/1718LAL2.HTM
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612747
The numbers are slightly different, probably because of rounding of minutes played.
2. In a different post, you say "I just saw a quick thing on twitter about how Ball, KCP, Brewer, Kuzma, Randle was essentially a +29." There has never been such a lineup. No Laker lineup has a +29. I think that you are probably talking about the lineup of Ball, KCP, Ingram, Kuzma, and Randle, which has played for a total of 34 minutes. It is +14, but the NBA site projects it to 26.9 per 100 possessions.
3. No one is denying that Ball has had a positive impact on defense, especially compared to Clarkson. We're a better defensive team this year, and at least part of that is due to Ball.
4. The problem is on offense, and we have not gotten better on that end. In fact, we've gotten worse. |
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K2
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:56 am Post subject: |
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| Car54 wrote: | | rogers49 wrote: | | El Seano wrote: | | How exactly can a player be top 10 in the league in assists and a bust at the same time? |
Kendall Marshall rings a bell? |
Marshall was 13th pick who avg 3 ast as a rookie. Not even close to being the same situation. |
Kendall Marshall (all-time assist leader at UNC) did average 3 assists over 14 minutes per game in his rookie season. He did improve to average 8.8 assists over 29minutes per game in his second season. |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:57 am Post subject: |
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PGs Taken in the Top 10, 2017 NBA Draft
RPM
AVERAGE PLAYER........0.00
1. Frank Ntilikina........-0.25
2. Lonzo Ball..............-2.55
3) Dennis Smith, Jr.....-2.94
4) Markelle Fultz.........-3.14
5) De'Aaron Fox..........-5.00
BPM
AVERAGE PLAYER........0.0
1. Lonzo Ball..............-0.8
2. Frank Ntilikina........-1.3
3. Dennis Smith, Jr......-3.2
4. De'Aaron Fox..........-4.5
5. Markelle Fultz.........-9.4
TS%
AVERAGE PLAYER............55.3
1. Dennis Smith, Jr..........46.8
2. De'Aaron Fox..............45.4
3. Frank Ntilikina.............41.1
4. Markelle Fultz..............37.2
5. Lonzo Ball...................36.4
AST%
1. De'Aaron Fox...............30.7
2. Lonzo Ball...................29.0
3. Dennis Smith, Jr...........28.2
4. Frank Ntilikina..............27.2
5. Markelle Fultz...............12.7
TO%
1. De'Aaron Fox................14.6
2. Markelle Fultz...............15.7
3. Lonzo Ball....................18.2
4. Dennis Smith, Jr............18.8
5. Frank Ntilikina...............24.7
Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
1. Lonzo Ball.....................2.53
2. De'Aaron Fox.................2.27
3. Frank Ntilikina...............2.04
4. Dennis Smith, Jr.............1.26
5. Markelle Fultz................1.17
REB%
1. Lonzo Ball.....................10.4
2. Dennis Smith, Jr...............8.0
3. De'Aaron Fox...................6.3
4. Markelle Fultz..................6.2
5. Frank Ntilikina.................5.6
STL%
1. Frank Ntilikina.................4.7 
2. Lonzo Ball.......................2.2
3. Dennis Smith, Jr...............1.6
4. De'Aaron Fox...................1.4
5. Markelle Fultz..................1.2
BLK%
1. Lonzo Ball.......................2.1
2. Markelle Fultz..................1.1
3. Dennis Smith, Jr...............1.1
4. De'Aaron Fox...................0.5
5. Frank Ntilikina.................0.4 |
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GoldenThroat
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:59 am Post subject: |
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| Kendall Marshall, eh. |
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | Mike@LG wrote: | https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/
There's no other PG except Lonzo on that page.
The fact that I'm considered a Lonzo defender, I find incredibly funny, especially with the zillions of Fultz vs. Ball arguments I dealt with all summer.
BTW, this isn't make up statistics.
Look at overall team effect despite losing 3 shooters compared to last year.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2018.html
Even FG%
#1 defensive rebounding
#15 in assists
#4 blocks
#4 total rebounding
#2 defensive rebounding
If you think this is solely on JR's improvement, Lopez, and KCP, you're sorely mistaken.
But sure, ignore the "real facts" if you'd like. |
What the heck, Mike?
1. Do you realize that the NBA.com chart ranks five man squads by minutes played? Those squads are not ranked by effectiveness. The fact that Ball is on that page is because we play him lots of minutes. Here are the five man units for the Lakers:
http://www.82games.com/1718/1718LAL2.HTM
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612747
The numbers are slightly different, probably because of rounding of minutes played.
2. In a different post, you say "I just saw a quick thing on twitter about how Ball, KCP, Brewer, Kuzma, Randle was essentially a +29." There has never been such a lineup. No Laker lineup has a +29. I think that you are probably talking about the lineup of Ball, KCP, Ingram, Kuzma, and Randle, which has played for a total of 34 minutes. It is +14, but the NBA site projects it to 26.9 per 100 possessions.
3. No one is denying that Ball has had a positive impact on defense, especially compared to Clarkson. We're a better defensive team this year, and at least part of that is due to Ball.
4. The problem is on offense, and we have not gotten better on that end. In fact, we've gotten worse. |
Ugh, of course it's the wrong link.
1. Common played lineup. 26.9. Zo. Not far below that. 22.
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612747
2. I think everyone is equating to poor shooting = bust. A bust can't do anything on the floor. Zo does way more than that.
3. We traded away 3 of the best shooters. How was that not anticipated?
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LakerSD
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:06 am Post subject: |
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GT and Mike,
Do you have a player comparison (combo of players?) in mind for Lonzo? Everyone seems to say Kidd but I wanted to see what you guys think.
Also, Lonzo in his prime...what does he look like? Stats and all. |
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:08 am Post subject: |
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| GoldenThroat wrote: | | Kendall Marshall, eh. |
Yeah.
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:17 am Post subject: |
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| LakerSD wrote: | GT and Mike,
Do you have a player comparison (combo of players?) in mind for Lonzo? Everyone seems to say Kidd but I wanted to see what you guys think.
Also, Lonzo in his prime...what does he look like? Stats and all. |
I don't. I have only mentioned Kidd with the idea of how he pushes pace, looks upcourt, hits the boards, everything but the shooting. But Kidd isn't a great comparison either. It's a surface level comparison.
It's an unpopular opinion that I really think Lonzo Ball is a forward. He attacks the offensive glass. His playtypes at UCLA relate to Nick Young the most. He even plays defense like a forward with the way he hits the glass, helps out on defense, and even provides some rim protection. The way he attacks the basket is very rudimentary. 1 change of direction, straight line. Or, straight-line, change in speed.
The thing is, he has elite IQ/courtvision/passing ability. In fact, it's so good, he's the best PG on the team. If he didn't have it, he would have been seen as a 3 and D prospect in the draft.
Projecting numbers is even harder. My expectations were low, along the lines of a 7/5/5 season, because I knew how much of a project he was. He's already exceeding that.
Add to that, he doesn't care about stats? He's going to have weird games like 14/14/14/5/3 across the board. I'd argue that both he and Ben Simmons are the only PGs that may actually get a quintuple-5 in their careers.
Maybe in his prime, he's a 16/10/8/2/1 avg for a year. Frankly, he's just a few made 3s, 2 FTs, and some tightened up halfcourt offense decision-making from there. That might be solved by next year, especially with some added strength and improved conditioning.
He's so far out of a typical prospect that I would usually like. Frankly, I just ranked him #2 just because I believed in his ability to change the culture.
So far, it's working, regardless of his FG%.
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LakerSD
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:23 am Post subject: |
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| ^Thanks, Mike. As always, your analysis is interesting and appreciated. |
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| People saying he is a bust basically labeled him a bust before he was drafted. Some (including myself) were expecting better shooting on open attempts. Hopefully he adjusts because he is doing a lot of things better than anticipated for a rookie PG. |
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LakerSD
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:34 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLogic wrote: | | People saying he is a bust basically labeled him a bust before he was drafted. Some (including myself) were expecting better shooting on open attempts. Hopefully he adjusts because he is doing a lot of things better than anticipated for a rookie PG. |
Labeling him a bust is premature, man it’s crazy what’s expected of these kids in this era. I’m not even worried about his shot because that seems fixable. Plenty of players have evolved in that area.
The Free Throw attempts is what concerns me the most. I do think he needs to average respectable FT attempts. That means he is applying pressure on a defense, imo.
His vision and iq is undisputable. His shot will get better. It’s that aggression and FT area that I’m praying works out. His defense is a pleasant surprise; didn’t think he would do that well this early into his career. |
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| One thing contributing to his low FTs attempts, poor FT shooting %. Drummond had a similar problem. When you know you can't hit FTs, it changes the way you play offense. He is not seeking contact. |
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