OFFICIAL LONZO BALL THREAD
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Sentient Meat
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:24 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
No I had addressed it earlier in my post directly under yours that we had posted about the same time about 10 comments up. The part where I said I understood the imperfections of the stat, but that I personally found it useful for filtering out quality players.


Eh. Maybe that's true for you, but it didn't seem that useful to other people on this board when people like Lebron and Rondo were running up triple doubles. Are triple doubles a useful filter, or are triple doubles a useful filter because Ball got a couple?


I was one of those who strongly advocated for signing Rondo this summer... and I'm happy to sign James even though he's getting old. Magic is my favorite all time player, and I love these types of players over those who simply score a lot.
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Lakesh0wtime
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:24 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
trablos wrote:
Lakesh0wtime wrote:
Lonzo and Pelinka about to be on Mason and Ireland

A joint interview?? That's kinda strange.


Yeah seems strange for both to be on at the same time.


Naa i think one after the other
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Inspector Gadget
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject:

Lakesh0wtime wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
trablos wrote:
Lakesh0wtime wrote:
Lonzo and Pelinka about to be on Mason and Ireland

A joint interview?? That's kinda strange.


Yeah seems strange for both to be on at the same time.


Naa i think one after the other


Oh... thanks
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Beir32
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
In baseball, this was one of the contributions of the early sabermetric guys like Bill James. Home runs and steals may sell tickets, but run creation and run prevention are what it is all about.


One of my pet peeves. Genius Billy Beane, in 20 years of running the A's, has put together teams that averaged 83 wins, with no Pennants and 6 playoff appearances.

Theo Epstein put together 2 WS winners in Boston and another with the Cubs - two franchises that were in 90 and 100+ year droughts, respectively - by grabbing players who hit home runs and pitchers with low ERAs and high strikeouts . . .


After Moneyball went mainstream, the type of players that Oakland signed and traded for at a discount suddenly became expensive and highly sought after. Homers and strikeouts were always expensive. Epstein is no genius either. He's Billy Beane with a 200 million dollar payroll.
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Fastbreak32
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:27 pm    Post subject:

Yeah, and scoring 81 points is easy, too. After a while you just gotta laugh at all the negativity.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
In baseball, this was one of the contributions of the early sabermetric guys like Bill James. Home runs and steals may sell tickets, but run creation and run prevention are what it is all about.


One of my pet peeves. Genius Billy Beane, in 20 years of running the A's, has put together teams that averaged 83 wins, with no Pennants and 6 playoff appearances.

Theo Epstein put together 2 WS winners in Boston and another with the Cubs - two franchises that were in 90 and 100+ year droughts, respectively - by grabbing players who hit home runs and pitchers with low ERAs and high strikeouts . . .


You do know that the Red Sox hired Bill James, right? If you think Theo Epstein is not a sabermetric guy, you are mistaken. In the case of Billy Beane, the whole point of Moneyball (and the source of the title) is that Beane has been doing it with the smallest budget in the major leagues. Sabermetrics + money > sabermetrics with no money.

Anyway, we digress.
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BynumForThree
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject:

thenextgreat wrote:
Take a stand experts. Five years from now Lonzo Ball will be?

A) Superstar
B) All Star
C) Role Player
D) Bust

No hopping on the fence.

Depends how you define them.

Superstar - Curry, Harden, CP3, Irving
All Star - Kidd, Nash, Lillard, Wall
Role Player - Rubio, Hill, Teague, Beverly
Bust - Carter-Williams, Marshall, Dunn

Using this model I think Lonzo's best case scenario is All Star or borderline All Star. I don't think he'll ever been good enough of a scorer to sniff Superstar potential but I could see him in the Mike Conley tier if all goes well.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:32 pm    Post subject:

LakerSD wrote:
I don’t care if it’s 10/10/10, a triple double is impressive because it means the player is having a solid impact on the game. I know rebounding today is a little different than the past with teams pulling back for transition but still 16 rebounds is pretty darn impressive. 10 assists is nothing to sneeze at either. Double figures in points, I feel anyone in the NBA can get that but it might not be efficient.

10+ rebounds, 10+ assists while efficiently running a team is not easy. Some of his rebounds last night were impressive, fending off nuggets players.


Agreed. A triple double is impressive. But, anything involving counting stats should, rightfully, be adjusted for pace.

A triple double in Kobe's prime was much harder due to fewer possessions.

Just for context, the 2006 Suns would be one of the slowest teams in the league today, somewhere around bottom 3.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:34 pm    Post subject:

44TheLogo wrote:
An assist is valuable if it puts your teammate in an advantageous situation to be able to score better.


Can you give one example of an assist that doesn't put your teammate in an advantageous situation to be able to score?
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:34 pm    Post subject:

BynumForThree wrote:
thenextgreat wrote:
Take a stand experts. Five years from now Lonzo Ball will be?

A) Superstar
B) All Star
C) Role Player
D) Bust

No hopping on the fence.

Depends how you define them.

Superstar - Curry, Harden, CP3, Irving
All Star - Kidd, Nash, Lillard, Wall
Role Player - Rubio, Hill, Teague, Beverly
Bust - Carter-Williams, Marshall, Dunn

Using this model I think Lonzo's best case scenario is All Star or borderline All Star. I don't think he'll ever been good enough of a scorer to sniff Superstar potential but I could see him in the Mike Conley tier if all goes well.


Yeah... there should be a Fringe All-Star option as the gap between All-Star and role player is massive.

I think Lonzos ceiling is as an all-star. Almost zero chance of superstar IMO mainly because he cannot score.
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:35 pm    Post subject:

^^ one of the most positive things I've heard from brother ever in this thread.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:41 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Here is a thought exercise. Suppose that a team is averaging 100 points per game with 20 assists. The coach decides that he wants more assists, so he makes the players pass the ball more. Now the team averages 30 assists per game, but only 95 points. Has the coach accomplished anything?


Here's a thought exercise, Suppose that a team has 50 assists.

How many points does that team now have at minimum?

a) 100
b) 0 because: "Assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks may contribute one way or another, or they may not."


Another thought exercise.

a) Team A scored 100 pts
b) Team B had 51 assists.

Who won the game?


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:49 pm; edited 3 times in total
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LakersNewEra
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:42 pm    Post subject:

2 triple doubles..almost 3 in the first month in the league is amazing. No way around that. But Im guessing you can classify me as a Lonzo hater in this whole debate. Not that I want him to fail, come on, we are all Lakers fans first, I want him to succeed, I want to be wrong, I want to eat crow, its just that I dont see it with him personally, as much as I want to be wrong.

A lot of those assists was just guys making shots, everyone was hot. I believe he only had like 3 assists on drives and kick outs or while pushing the break. Not to take anything away from Lonzo though, his playmaking and even his defense are his strengths but still too much I dont like. Shooting is atrocious, he cant get past defenders, lacks agility, doesnt absorb contact well, ballhandling leaves a lot to be desired.
I just dont see it. We have had some crappy PG's in the past and while they havent been 20 year old rookies from time to time they did go off. Smush Parker could flat out score at times and was crappy. Kendall Marshall would get 15 assists at times, was crappy.
Bottom line with playing time players will make things happen sometimes, fill up the stat sheet, doesnt mean they are not bad players.
Lonzo to me is a bad player but time will tell. I think if you give Zubac for example, if you give him Lonzo's minutes he will give you some 20-10 games.

I still dont see it with Lonzo, think hes a bad player, shouldnt play, definitely shouldnt start and time will tell how he"ll be in the future.
Hope I am wrong but I just see a bad player there. Not someone that should be getting minutes in the NBA.
Again I do hope Im wrong. I do hope hes a superstar. I do hope hes amazing. I just dont see it.
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:48 pm    Post subject:

LakersNewEra wrote:
2 triple doubles..almost 3 in the first month in the league is amazing. No way around that. But Im guessing you can classify me as a Lonzo hater in this whole debate. Not that I want him to fail, come on, we are all Lakers fans first, I want him to succeed, I want to be wrong, I want to eat crow, its just that I dont see it with him personally, as much as I want to be wrong.

A lot of those assists was just guys making shots, everyone was hot. I believe he only had like 3 assists on drives and kick outs or while pushing the break. Not to take anything away from Lonzo though, his playmaking and even his defense are his strengths but still too much I dont like. Shooting is atrocious, he cant get past defenders, lacks agility, doesnt absorb contact well, ballhandling leaves a lot to be desired.
I just dont see it. We have had some crappy PG's in the past and while they havent been 20 year old rookies from time to time they did go off. Smush Parker could flat out score at times and was crappy. Kendall Marshall would get 15 assists at times, was crappy.
Bottom line with playing time players will make things happen sometimes, fill up the stat sheet, doesnt mean they are not bad players.
Lonzo to me is a bad player but time will tell. I think if you give Zubac for example, if you give him Lonzo's minutes he will give you some 20-10 games.

I still dont see it with Lonzo, think hes a bad player, shouldnt play, definitely shouldnt start and time will tell how he"ll be in the future.
Hope I am wrong but I just see a bad player there. Not someone that should be getting minutes in the NBA.
Again I do hope Im wrong. I do hope hes a superstar. I do hope hes amazing. I just dont see it.


Yes you are a Lonzo hater. You’re clearly just seeing what you want to if that’s your diagnosis of his play. The team is better when he’s on the floor more often than not.
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:48 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
@kpelton Just reading your excellent piece on Ben Simmons and had to ask: Are triple doubles more common these days? It certainly seems that way. Is there an explanation?


Quote:
Yes, they are. Last season, there were an average of 3.9 triple-doubles per team, far and away the highest average since the ABA-NBA merger. (There were an incredible 7.2 per team in 1961-62, when Oscar Robertson averaged a triple-double in a nine-team league.) The 2015-16 average of 2.5 triple-doubles per team ranked fourth since the merger, and the current average of 2.3 per team (through Thursday) would rank sixth.


Note on triple doubles. But he didn't say how many guys are getting triple doubles (or I missed it cuz I only skimmed the page). For instance if one guy like Russel is getting 40, that will skew the numbers.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:50 pm    Post subject:


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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:56 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Here is a thought exercise. Suppose that a team is averaging 100 points per game with 20 assists. The coach decides that he wants more assists, so he makes the players pass the ball more. Now the team averages 30 assists per game, but only 95 points. Has the coach accomplished anything?


Here's a thought exercise, Suppose that a team has 50 assists.

How many points does that team now have at minimum?

a) 100
b) 0 because: "Assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks may contribute one way or another, or they may not."


You're missing the point. Suppose that a team has 50 unassisted FGM. How many points does that team now have at minimum? It's exactly the same as in your case. So does an assist actually add anything? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

This is not an academic point. For example, Portland is dead last in the league in assists per game this year. Portland is second to last in the percentage of two point baskets that are assisted, and third from last in the percentage of three point baskets that are assisted. Yet Portland is 15th in ORtg. Stats may correlate to scoring performance, or they may not.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:03 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:


You're missing the point. Suppose that a team has 50 unassisted FGM. How many points does that team now have at minimum? It's exactly the same as in your case. So does an assist actually add anything? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

This is not an academic point. For example, Portland is dead last in the league in assists per game this year. Portland is second to last in the percentage of two point baskets that are assisted, and third from last in the percentage of three point baskets that are assisted. Yet Portland is 15th in ORtg. Stats may correlate to scoring performance, or they may not.


Now you're moving goalposts. At first you said, the only two things that count are points scored and points against. Assists don't matter.

Now you're saying 50 FGs unassisted equals 50 FGs assisted.

If assists don't matter, how can 50 assists be equal to 50 unassisted FGs.

I asked you a simple question, would you rather have 100 pts or 51 assists?

If assists don't matter, you'd take the 100 pts right?
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject:

Some people just can't appreciate a good game for a good game.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject:

Assists don't matter now
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:13 pm    Post subject:

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lonzos-balls-triple-double-looks-good-on-paper-but-its-pretty-deceiving/

what do you guys think of this? these dudes out here using examples of pnp and pnr skips where defenders are off balance and just cause they attacked out of instead of taking a straight shot out of, they say lonzo shouldnt even get the assist
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parsons777
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:15 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:


You're missing the point. Suppose that a team has 50 unassisted FGM. How many points does that team now have at minimum? It's exactly the same as in your case. So does an assist actually add anything? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

This is not an academic point. For example, Portland is dead last in the league in assists per game this year. Portland is second to last in the percentage of two point baskets that are assisted, and third from last in the percentage of three point baskets that are assisted. Yet Portland is 15th in ORtg. Stats may correlate to scoring performance, or they may not.


Now you're moving goalposts. At first you said, the only two things that count are points scored and points against. Assists don't matter.

Now you're saying 50 FGs unassisted equals 50 FGs assisted.

If assists don't matter, how can 50 assists be equal to 50 unassisted FGs.

I asked you a simple question, would you rather have 100 pts or 51 assists?

If assists don't matter, you'd take the 100 pts right?


I get Aeneas' point, but disagree with it. Let's say you are building a team and could have Shaq, or someone who basically you throw the ball to on the block and let em got to work, or Nash, who cannot operate on the block, but can move around with the ball, collapse the D and hit others for open shots, which otherwise would be contested. Both are great players and both can produce a lot of offense, but do you really care if the points are the product of assists or not? I do, because I believe that an assisted score has some additional value over post scoring and other forms of iso ball. There is inherent value in collective offensive success that breeds a camaraderie that carries over to the defensive end, making players want to sacrifice for each other. Or at least I think that is true.

BTW huge fan of Shaq. At the height of his powers in 99-00 he averaged 3.8 ast per game. Just dominated in every aspect of the game.


Last edited by parsons777 on Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject:

Maybe we should ban cbs sports in general?
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject:

Just to be clear I love Lonzo and think he is a great player.

Some peoples expectations are for him to be the "wolf" from the Teen Wolf movie. Showboating, dunking, stealing the ball from his own teammates and being flashy.

Unfortunately, he is only "Scott" but doesn't show his emotions on his sleeve. And yes, Scott does win the champion game.

(I suck at links or else I would add them)
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