OFFICIAL LONZO BALL THREAD
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JerryMagicKobe
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
JerryMagicKobe wrote:
I probably just missed the last 12 years of you putting everyone's triple doubles in their proper context.


I've been critical of the fixation with triple doubles for years. Let me give you an example. As an 18 year old, Lebron posted 30/10/9 with 5 steals in a game. He also posted 33/16/7. But those aren't triple doubles.

I'm not saying that Lebron is an appropriate comparison for Ball. But when you fixate on triple doubles, you exclude some of the monumental games that other players had at a young age, and you elevate Ball's performances to a status that they really don't merit by an objective standard.

There are far more people fixating on Ball's PPG as evidence that he isn't playing well than there are people fixating on his trip-dubs as evidence that he is elite. He is a young player who is extraordinarily good at a lot of things on both ends of the floor that are important to winning basketball games.

And the only player to ever put up 20-10-10 at Ball's age is LeBron.
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tox
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:54 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
tox wrote:
To be fair, those two thoughts can work together. You can argue triple doubles are uninteresting filters for players who are elite (or thought to be elite), but that they are interesting filters for players who aren't there yet. I think it's particularly salient for people who call Lonzo a bust, because it's a quick shorthand for how well-rounded Lonzo is and how you can't just point to shooting struggles to summarize his entire season so far.

That said, I personally find the triple double just shows what's immediately obvious about Lonzo: he's good at rebounding and he's good at getting assists. To me, the more interesting things about Lonzo aren't covered by triple doubles:]his pristine ATR and his ridiculous steal/block rates for a rookie guard.


He checks off so many boxes, man. He's good at all of these things for ANY guard, and that gets magnified when you contextualize his game with his age and experience level.


http://bkref.com/tiny/qg0Eo
Note, this is any year of their career. (Note: Kobe had one season with 2.0%/1.9% so obviously this is slightly arbitrary.) This is phenomenal. Just look at the names on that list.

While we're at it, players as young as he is almost never put up ATRs this good off the bat:
http://bkref.com/tiny/a3YoR
And of course, Lonzo plays on the worst 3 point shooting team in the league, a good way to deflate assist totals.

Finally.... http://bkref.com/tiny/otGnJ
for rebounding.

"Checks so many boxes" is totally right.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:27 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LakerSD wrote:
I don’t care if it’s 10/10/10, a triple double is impressive because it means the player is having a solid impact on the game. I know rebounding today is a little different than the past with teams pulling back for transition but still 16 rebounds is pretty darn impressive. 10 assists is nothing to sneeze at either. Double figures in points, I feel anyone in the NBA can get that but it might not be efficient.

10+ rebounds, 10+ assists while efficiently running a team is not easy. Some of his rebounds last night were impressive, fending off nuggets players.


Agreed. A triple double is impressive. But, anything involving counting stats should, rightfully, be adjusted for pace.

A triple double in Kobe's prime was much harder due to fewer possessions.

Just for context, the 2006 Suns would be one of the slowest teams in the league today, somewhere around bottom 3.


No doubt. I agree.

The reason why imo a triple double is still impressive despite change in pace/more possessions is because there aren’t too many players capable of getting double digits in all 3 categories.

There is more likelihood of triple doubles happening today but like epak mentioned if Westbrook is getting them all for OKC that skews the numbers. I’m guessing we will see more from a handful of players and then occasional triple doubles from others.

Guys like Lebron, Westbrook, Simmons, Lonzo, Harden will likely continue to dominate this category imo for the near future.
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trablos
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:44 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:


You're missing the point. Suppose that a team has 50 unassisted FGM. How many points does that team now have at minimum? It's exactly the same as in your case. So does an assist actually add anything? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

This is not an academic point. For example, Portland is dead last in the league in assists per game this year. Portland is second to last in the percentage of two point baskets that are assisted, and third from last in the percentage of three point baskets that are assisted. Yet Portland is 15th in ORtg. Stats may correlate to scoring performance, or they may not.


Now you're moving goalposts. At first you said, the only two things that count are points scored and points against. Assists don't matter.

Now you're saying 50 FGs unassisted equals 50 FGs assisted.

If assists don't matter, how can 50 assists be equal to 50 unassisted FGs.

I asked you a simple question, would you rather have 100 pts or 51 assists?

If assists don't matter, you'd take the 100 pts right?

I think what he's saying is that styles don't matter, as long as you outscore your opponents. So a team with the bulk of its FGM on assisted buckets isn't inherently better than a team with the bulk of its FGM on unassisted buckets, which simply means that there are multiple styles that can win you games.

But to answer your question, give me 100 pts all day fam, I mean bigger numbers are better right?
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GoldenThroat
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
AC Green's V-Card wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
In baseball, this was one of the contributions of the early sabermetric guys like Bill James. Home runs and steals may sell tickets, but run creation and run prevention are what it is all about.


One of my pet peeves. Genius Billy Beane, in 20 years of running the A's, has put together teams that averaged 83 wins, with no Pennants and 6 playoff appearances.

Theo Epstein put together 2 WS winners in Boston and another with the Cubs - two franchises that were in 90 and 100+ year droughts, respectively - by grabbing players who hit home runs and pitchers with low ERAs and high strikeouts . . .


I'm not sure you realize that Theo Epstein is one of the most advanced sabermetrics guys in the MLB.

https://www.theringer.com/2016/6/27/16037390/theo-epstein-market-inefficiency-cubs-red-sox-undeniables-ca36fd494ba1

Quote:
And even though Billy Beane was the hero of Moneyball, he’s not the archetypal general manager of the Moneyball movement. No, it’s the guy the Red Sox hired when they couldn’t get Beane.

When Boston hired Theo Epstein on November 25, 2002, it changed the game forever, both figuratively and literally. Boston had finished second to the Yankees in the AL East for five straight years, despite making big, headline-grabbing moves for Pedro Martínez, Manny Ramírez, and lastly Johnny Damon, whose departure from Oakland precipitated the events of Moneyball itself. Unlike the 2002 A’s, Boston wasn’t an experimental group of castoffs on a shoestring budget; it was Old Money, a rich, well-scrutinized organization that would ordinarily have been run conservatively. Instead, team president Larry Lucchino handed the reins to the youngest general manager in MLB history. A 28-year-old lawyer with no playing or coaching experience, Epstein looked like he’d gotten lost on the way to a high school mock trial competition, and he showed up with big ideas and a mountain of quantitative data.



When you use analytics and have the money to spend, good things can happen. Go Dodgers!


You mean you can...do both?

The fact that the A's have been slightly over .500 over a 20 year span while almost certainly having a Bottom-3 payroll over that same time isn't something to mock.
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defense
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:49 pm    Post subject:

trablos wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:


You're missing the point. Suppose that a team has 50 unassisted FGM. How many points does that team now have at minimum? It's exactly the same as in your case. So does an assist actually add anything? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

This is not an academic point. For example, Portland is dead last in the league in assists per game this year. Portland is second to last in the percentage of two point baskets that are assisted, and third from last in the percentage of three point baskets that are assisted. Yet Portland is 15th in ORtg. Stats may correlate to scoring performance, or they may not.


Now you're moving goalposts. At first you said, the only two things that count are points scored and points against. Assists don't matter.

Now you're saying 50 FGs unassisted equals 50 FGs assisted.

If assists don't matter, how can 50 assists be equal to 50 unassisted FGs.

I asked you a simple question, would you rather have 100 pts or 51 assists?

If assists don't matter, you'd take the 100 pts right?

I think what he's saying is that styles don't matter, as long as you outscore your opponents. So a team with the bulk of its FGM on assisted buckets isn't inherently better than a team with the bulk of its FGM on unassisted buckets, which simply means that there are multiple styles that can win you games.

But to answer your question, give me 100 pts all day fam, I mean bigger numbers are better right?


We're dealing with complex humans. Assists matter for a number of psychological reasons. I won't get into the details because i don't like writing essays but they matter, for sure.
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spflakers
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:19 pm    Post subject:

Love Lonzo. Think he's going to be really good and that the shooting will straighten itself out.

And I do love his persona and think it's a fairly natural thing to happen with the dad he has (we all know people with loudmouth parents and then the kid is cool and calm).

All that said, it is hard not to compare his personality to the guy he's occasionally compared to: Magic. Was recently again just watching Magic's first game, vs. the Clippers. If that had been Lonzo in that game, he would have been the one going up to Kareem and telling him, "hey, we've got 81 games left. Settle down." Magic's entire personality energized the franchise....and his on-court skills helped a bit too. I think Lonzo's unselfish nature can have a trickle-down effect and he has brought a bit of a different vibe to the franchise, but when comparing it to the...*life* that Magic brought, there's not much comparison at all.

Which is fine! As long as the jump shot improves, the number of smiles won't matter.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:05 pm    Post subject:

Lavar is on CNN really sounding like an idiot.. He's grown on me but he's really embarrassing his son.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:13 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
Lavar is on CNN really sounding like an idiot.. He's grown on me but he's really embarrassing his son.


my god..someone cut the camera and get him out of there....he is presenting himself as repulsive and ignorant....
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:18 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
Lavar is on CNN really sounding like an idiot.. He's grown on me but he's really embarrassing his son.


my god..someone cut the camera and get him out of there....he is presenting himself as repulsive and ignorant....


I don't think Zo has any say so in the matter anymore.. In regards to how his dad conducts himself. I don't think he's capable of dialing it back, nor would he allow anyone to pressure him to dial it back.

And again he actually grew on me.. but this interview smh..
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:24 pm    Post subject:

LMAO This guy..
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:24 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
LMAO This guy..


at least it came around to him being silly....at first, was looking bad
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:27 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
LMAO This guy..


at least it came around to him being silly....at first, was looking bad


Yea he turned it around.. I'd rather him be silly than being whatever he was initially. Overall it wasn't a good look though.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:33 pm    Post subject:

SocalDevin wrote:
adkindo wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
LMAO This guy..


at least it came around to him being silly....at first, was looking bad


Yea he turned it around.. I'd rather him be silly than being whatever he was initially. Overall it wasn't a good look though.


Big Baller Brand should be ready for an IRS audit.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:38 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
adkindo wrote:
SocalDevin wrote:
LMAO This guy..


at least it came around to him being silly....at first, was looking bad


Yea he turned it around.. I'd rather him be silly than being whatever he was initially. Overall it wasn't a good look though.


Big Baller Brand should be ready for an IRS audit.


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:43 pm    Post subject:

The fact that he is on CNN is all that matters. Crazy.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:49 pm    Post subject:

LakerLogic wrote:
The fact that he is on CNN is all that matters. Crazy.


The fact that Trump engaged LaVar in social media is exactly what LaVar wants.

Big Baller Brand will be selling a lot of shoes/merchandise. $$$
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject:

Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:22 pm    Post subject:

socalsp3 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
gsrbruin wrote:
I haven’t watched every game, but the times I watch him play I am surprised that I haven’t seen him try to dunk. It seems like a lot of his lay ups are not falling. He seemed to try to dunk more in college.


He actually got more frequent backdoor cuts for dunks at UCLA.


But you need a coach who can draw up plays


LAL proved they can run plays.

But can the guys make the passes? KCP can't. JC can't even see him.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Now you're moving goalposts. At first you said, the only two things that count are points scored and points against. Assists don't matter.

Now you're saying 50 FGs unassisted equals 50 FGs assisted.

If assists don't matter, how can 50 assists be equal to 50 unassisted FGs.

I asked you a simple question, would you rather have 100 pts or 51 assists?

If assists don't matter, you'd take the 100 pts right?


I've explained the point clearly. You are fixated with stats as units, but that is not the point.


ok....

But aren't you the one illustrating which counting stats matter? Isn't your point that the only counting stats that matter is 100 pts vs. 95 pts?

Can't we say definitively that as counting stats, 51 assists is better than 100 pts?

Using your example, if the coach decided he wanted the team to end up w/ 51 assists, that they will score more than 100 pts every time?

Quote:
Here is a thought exercise. Suppose that a team is averaging 100 points per game with 20 assists. The coach decides that he wants more assists, so he makes the players pass the ball more. Now the team averages 30 assists per game, but only 95 points. Has the coach accomplished anything?


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:28 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html


do these really mean anything? I have always felt most often if you take the team with the highest offensive or defensive ratings, and for the most part the individual ratings will simply be full of these teams players, especially the starters/heavy minute guys....but not very insightful to individual offensive or defensive players.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:38 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html


I thought we were already done talking about him..
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:44 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html


do these really mean anything? I have always felt most often if you take the team with the highest offensive or defensive ratings, and for the most part the individual ratings will simply be full of these teams players, especially the starters/heavy minute guys....but not very insightful to individual offensive or defensive players.


One thing we know is that Boston's defense is legit.
My question is: is Kyrie a legit defender? Or are they protecting him somehow?
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:46 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html


do these really mean anything? I have always felt most often if you take the team with the highest offensive or defensive ratings, and for the most part the individual ratings will simply be full of these teams players, especially the starters/heavy minute guys....but not very insightful to individual offensive or defensive players.


Well, that's chicken and the egg argument right? It also goes to whether its a coach's scheme, or the individual defensive/offensive talents of the players.

Still, to your question, its notable that the #1 player in defensive rating is Whiteside, who happens to be the only player from the Heat (the #11th team in defensive rating) in the top 20. Andre Drummond, off the #9th defensive rated Detroit team, is the only player off the Pistons in the top 20 (he's #10). Even though the 76ers are the 15th rated defensive team, Embiid is #17 in defensive rating. Conversely, despite the fact that Golden State, Washington and San Antonio are each top 10 defensive teams per rating, they don't have any players who possess a top 20 individual defensive rating.

Of course, it doesn't help that Tatum is #3 and Irving is #7. However, looking at the remainder of the top 20 list, other than those two (and maybe Ball), the remainder appear to be known as above par NBA defenders.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:47 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
adkindo wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Guys, cut out the Lavar talk. He's not a Laker. Go to off topic if you want to talk about Lavar.

On Ball news, he's currently #20 in individual defensive rating. Randle is #16 too.

#3-#9 in defensive rating are all Celtics players. Jason Tatum is #3. Damn.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2018_leaders.html


do these really mean anything? I have always felt most often if you take the team with the highest offensive or defensive ratings, and for the most part the individual ratings will simply be full of these teams players, especially the starters/heavy minute guys....but not very insightful to individual offensive or defensive players.


One thing we know is that Boston's defense is legit.
My question is: is Kyrie a legit defender? Or are they protecting him somehow?


idk...cant say I have watched much of them...but listening to podcasts and NBA radio....the narrative currently is he is playing improved defense.
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