OFFICIAL LONZO BALL THREAD
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:34 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
https://stats.nba.com/players/shots-closest-defender/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612747&CloseDefDistRange=2-4%20Feet%20-%20Tight

When Lonzo Ball is the 2nd most frequent tightly defended shooter with consistent playing time...


I'm not sure how you draw that conclusion from this data. Are you looking at the percentage of his shots that are tightly defended? If you are really looking at frequency, you should be looking at attempts.


He’s tied for second in attempts.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:49 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:

So, I don't know how much you can count on his 37.5% from 6ft+ and say - he'll consistently drain those if you leave him wide open in a playoff series. You can also look at that data and conclude that as long as someone's within 6ft of Lonzo, he'll struggle.

He's just an inconsistent shooter. Can he be consistent at one aspect of shooting? Maybe, but if I'm the opponent, I'm going to make him beat me that way.

What's the alternative? Especially if his role is to create driving lanes for LeBron and if it's working and if we're winning because of it. Might as well try something else. We're talking about someone avg 8.3 ppg. How much would he have to avg for an opponent to abandon the plan of leaving him open in the playoffs? 15ppg? 20ppg?

There is some weird logic going on here.
He's averaging 8.3 ppg, sure, but that's because teams aren't leaving him wide open on 3s. Your logic can't be "teams will leave Lonzo open to cut off driving lanes for LeBron" and simultaneously "he can't average 15 ppg if he's only averaging 8" -- the former is contingent on the defense changing how they guard Lonzo while the latter isn't. I can't speak to a counterfactual reality of what happens if teams totally leave Lonzo wide open on a huge amount of 3s... because I haven't seen them do that.

And yeah, he's inconsistent. If I were gameplanning for the Lakers, I'd mostly leave him open too. Give him the Harrison Barnes 2016 Finals treatment and make him prove that he can make them. But it's also possible he does hit >35% or whatever of his open 3s, and if he does you don't want to be giving a >1.05 ppp possession in the half court routinely.

And speaking of which, if you watch the 2016 Finals, even when the Cavs sagged off of Barnes big time, they still reacted to him as a threat from behind the arc (see here:
. If he shot 1 3 a game at a 31% clip, they wouldn't even do that.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:12 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Your logic can't be "teams will leave Lonzo open to cut off driving lanes for LeBron"


No, this is Mike's logic. I assumed you've been following along. I'm saying if this is true..... Go back and reread the thread. This is what Mike is saying is Lonzo's worth to the offense.



tox wrote:
and simultaneously "he can't average 15 ppg if he's only averaging 8"


Nope, if you read it again, I said nothing of the sort. It was a question, how much must he avg (15ppg, 20ppg) for them to abandon the strategy of leaving him open?

Quote:
What's the alternative? Especially if his role is to create driving lanes for LeBron and if it's working and if we're winning because of it. Might as well try something else. We're talking about someone avg 8.3 ppg. How much would he have to avg for an opponent to abandon the plan of leaving him open in the playoffs? 15ppg? 20ppg?


I'll start again. The conversation started with - Lonzo only makes 31.8% of his threes. Mike said, Lonzo's worth is not measured in the % he makes, but that he's willing to take them, thus freeing up driving lanes for LeBron.

I'm saying, if that's his worth, then if I'm the opponent, I'm going to take that away. I'm going to challenge him to beat me.

And I posed a question - for a guy that avg 8 ppg, how much would he have to score for an opponent to abandon the strategy of leaving him open. And it's a question that you can answer. And I asked, is it 15ppg, 20ppg?

It's a question - nothing about him not being able to score 15ppg or 20ppg. It's a question, how much must he score for the opponent to abandon the strategy of leaving him open in a playoff series.




tox wrote:
And yeah, he's inconsistent. If I were gameplanning for the Lakers, I'd mostly leave him open too. Give him the Harrison Barnes 2016 Finals treatment and make him prove that he can make them. But it's also possible he does hit >35% or whatever of his open 3s, and if he does you don't want to be giving a >1.05 ppp possession in the half court routinely.


And that's my question. Of course it's possible that he hits greater than 35%. But you pick your poison.

And this is only predicated on if Mike's theory is correct - that Lonzo's greatest asset to our offense is to create driving lanes for LeBron. If that's truly what the Lakers offense wants, then as the opponent, I'm going to take that away and force him to shoot threes. And so I ask, at what point will they abandon that strategy? How consistent does he have to hit them for them to abandon that strategy?

Because it's not just about hitting 35%, it's also about volume, and that's why I brought up the ppg avg.

Because if he's hitting 35% and avg 12ppg, then I'd probably live with that. But if he's hitting 35% but avg 20ppg, then that's maybe too much.

So, that's what I'm asking.

And if you're just going by the stats, his stats say that 6gt+ he shoots 37.5% but any defender from within 4-6ft, he shoots 28.8%, so maybe they'll try that. Leave him open, but have someone within 4-6 ft. So, there are things they can try differently, they'll probably try them all.


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:26 pm; edited 2 times in total
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ibij
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:18 pm    Post subject:

Some posters.....they really really hate Zo. Just want to off the Lakers.

Just say it, " i hate Zo."
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:25 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:

Nope, if you read it again, I said nothing of the sort. It was a question, how much must he avg (15ppg, 20ppg) for them to abandon the strategy of leaving him open?

-truncated-

What kind of question is this? How would I or anyone else on this board know when a coach decides to guard Lonzo and free up lanes for LeBron? I'd imagine it depends on the coach's appetite for watching Lonzo Ball shoot wide open 3s as well as how Lonzo is shooting in a particular game.

All I can tell you is that if Lonzo actually shoots 37.5% on 3 pointers and it translates in the playoffs, then it is good offense for the Lakers. >1.1 PPP in the half court is really (bleep) good. Whether that's on 15 3PA/g or 2 (but then LeBron gets more open lanes), either way it's good for the Lakers. I don't understand how this is complicated.

Moreover, don't ignore the fact that even if a coach is fine with Lonzo shooting open 3s, he's still getting more attention than Ben Simmons (or a Lonzo Ball that shoots 1 3 per game at 31%). That was Mike's original point, and it remains true on a relative basis.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:30 pm    Post subject:

ibij wrote:
Some posters.....they really really hate Zo. Just want to off the Lakers.

Just say it, " i hate Zo."


If you love him to no end its of course going to seem to you that those who are ambivalent, undecided, skeptical or even those who like him relative to his contribution do in fact hate him.
That's a result of your POV more so than anything else.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:34 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:

Nope, if you read it again, I said nothing of the sort. It was a question, how much must he avg (15ppg, 20ppg) for them to abandon the strategy of leaving him open?

-truncated-

What kind of question is this? How would I know when a coach decides to guard Lonzo and free up lanes for LeBron? I'd imagine it depends on the coach's appetite for watching Lonzo Ball shoot wide open 3s as well as how Lonzo is shooting in a particular game.

All I can tell you is that if Lonzo actually shoots 37.5% on 3 pointers and it translates in the playoffs, then it is good offense for the Lakers. >1.1 PPP in the half court is really (bleep) good. Whether that's on 15 3PA/g or 2 (but then LeBron gets more open lanes), either way it's good for the Lakers. I don't understand how this is complicated.


Well, let me give an example.

Let's just work with 10 possessions for simplicity sake. Let's say I sag off of him for 10 possessions, and he decides to take 1 three but the other 9 times, he still passes the ball to someone else. So even if he was shooting 37.5%, I still achieved my goal on those other 9 possessions that he was unwilling to pull the trigger.

So, volume would matter. How often is he going to take the shot when I sag off of him?

Now, I know you said "how the heck do I know" - so you don't want to answer. That's fine.

Consider it a rhetorical question, or an unanswerable question, or a question not for you to answer.

But, as a strategist, that'd be a question I'd want to know. How often is he going to make me pay for sagging off of him? To me, that's as important as what % he shoots. Because if he only takes the shot once, then they only got that 1.1ppp once out of 10 possessions.

But yeah, if you don't like, or don't want to answer this question, or thinks it's stupid, or irrevelant - no worries man.

Thanks for the discussion.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:38 pm    Post subject:

OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it. Zero risk, high reward. So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open.

But because that's such a self-evident point, my post assumed that Lonzo is taking (most of) the wide open 3s he's getting -- and volume is dependent on the defense's strategy as opposed to Lonzo's mentality. In that case, I have no idea at what point a coach decides to abandon the "leave him open" strategy. IIRC Ty Lue chose to stick to his "don't guard Draymond' strategy for all of 2016 Game 7 even as Draymond almost single-handedly beat the Cavs with his 3 point shooting.


Last edited by tox on Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:38 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
https://stats.nba.com/players/shots-closest-defender/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612747&CloseDefDistRange=2-4%20Feet%20-%20Tight

When Lonzo Ball is the 2nd most frequent tightly defended shooter with consistent playing time...


I'm not sure how you draw that conclusion from this data. Are you looking at the percentage of his shots that are tightly defended? If you are really looking at frequency, you should be looking at attempts.


He’s tied for second in attempts.


Actually, he's third if you just look at threes and if you ignore Mykhailiuk. The numbers are rounded. Click on 3PA to sort them. Or, if you prefer, we can say that there is no statistically meaningful difference between Ball, Hart, and Kuzma, but that sort of undercuts what Mike said. Anyway, we're talking about (something rounded to) 0.4 per game. If you look at FGA or 2FGA, he is sixth. FGA is the best indicator, really. He averages 2.5 tightly defended shots per game.

Actually, there are deeper problems, in that this measures only plays in which the shot was taken, as opposed to plays in which the shooter passed the ball, and that a four foot gap at the time of a three point shot is not tight defense. But we don't need to go there. Does anyone really think that Ball is the second most frequent tightly defended shooter on the team?
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:40 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it.

So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open. Because that's such a self-evident point, my post assumed that Lonzo is taking (most of) the wide open 3s he's getting -- and volume is dependent on the defense's strategy as opposed to Lonzo's mentality.


Well, my assumption was when I said they are going to try a strategy - then they go into the game trying that strategy all game long.

So I was asking - how much would he have to score for that game for them to abandon that strategy.

15ppg, 20ppg?

And that's good that you assume that Lonzo will take most of his wide open threes. But, he's avg 8.3 pts right now. He's kind of a reluctant shooter.
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:53 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
tox wrote:
OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it.

So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open. Because that's such a self-evident point, my post assumed that Lonzo is taking (most of) the wide open 3s he's getting -- and volume is dependent on the defense's strategy as opposed to Lonzo's mentality.


Well, my assumption was when I said they are going to try a strategy - then they go into the game trying that strategy all game long.

So I was asking - how much would he have to score for that game for them to abandon that strategy.

15ppg, 20ppg?

I know what you're trying to do. You want me to say that "Lonzo will have to score 20 ppg in order for teams to actually guard him and therefore give LeBron space on his driving lanes." You're then going to comment on the absurdity of Lonzo having to score 20 ppg in the playoffs given he's averaging 8 ppg right now. Is that right?

The point I'm making is that what matters is his efficiency. Whether there's 5 instances where they choose not to guard him or 15, what matters is what percentage he's shooting. If he shoots >35%, you have >1.05 ppp on a half court possession, which is incredibly good, especially for the playoffs. Whether that happens 5 times or 15 times is irrelevant: as a strategy, letting Lonzo shoot wide open 3s (as opposed to collapsing your defense in other ways) would be bad. And a good coach would change their strategy if they knew Lonzo would shoot >35% on these wide open 3s.

Quote:
And that's good that you assume that Lonzo will take most of his wide open threes. But, he's avg 8.3 pts right now. He's kind of a reluctant shooter.


Sure but he doesn't get a million wide open 3s per game. He generally takes his wide open 3s. He'll pass them if a teammate has a better or comparable shot, but otherwise he shoots them. That 8.3 ppg does not translate to this alternate universe where teams are giving him Ben Simmons treatment.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:57 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
tox wrote:
OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it.

So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open. Because that's such a self-evident point, my post assumed that Lonzo is taking (most of) the wide open 3s he's getting -- and volume is dependent on the defense's strategy as opposed to Lonzo's mentality.


Well, my assumption was when I said they are going to try a strategy - then they go into the game trying that strategy all game long.

So I was asking - how much would he have to score for that game for them to abandon that strategy.

15ppg, 20ppg?

I know what you're trying to do. You want me to say that "Lonzo will have to score 20 ppg in order for teams to actually guard him and therefore give LeBron space on his driving lanes." You're then going to comment on the absurdity of Lonzo having to score 20 ppg in the playoffs given he's averaging 8 ppg right now. Is that right?

The point I'm making is that what matters is his efficiency. Whether there's 5 instances where they choose not to guard him or 15, what matters is what percentage he's shooting. If he shoots >35%, you have >1.05 ppp on a half court possession, which is incredibly good, especially for the playoffs. Whether that happens 5 times or 15 times is irrelevant: as a strategy, letting Lonzo shoot wide open 3s (as opposed to collapsing your defense in other ways) would be bad. And a good coach would change their strategy if they knew Lonzo would shoot >35% on these wide open 3s.


Nope. It's honestly a question for the opponent. I think around 20ppg is when they abandon that strategy, and as an opponent I'm going to take my chances on that.

I think you probably have your guard up way too much or something. I'm not trying to argue with you just to be argumentative. I'm just putting myself in the opponents shoes - how I would think if I were them.

Honestly, I'm just thinking out loud. I'm not trying to get you to admit to anything at all. It's just a discussion.

But we can agree to disagree, no problem with that dude.

You don't think volume matters, I think volume matters greatly. So leave it at that?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:02 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
More shots also correlates to more of a willingness to take tougher ones which will hurt the %.


Yeah, I'm going to disagree on this. I think as you get better at shooting 3s, you take more shots.

Blake Griffin, when he first came into the league - shot 29.2% on 0.3 attempts.

Now, he's shooting 36.2% on 6.3 attempts.


Shooting less 3s is easier to shoot a higher percentage and players shoot more when they shoot better. It’s not a one or the other situation.


Damn son! Do you believe what you say?

Shooting less is easier to shoot higher percentage...

Say what?
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:03 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Nope. It's honestly a question for the opponent. I think around 20ppg is when they abandon that strategy, and as an opponent I'm going to take my chances on that.

So you... literally did what I'd say you'd do? I don't have my guard up. I don't know how I can make this any clearer. A good coach doesn't get hung up on ppg. That's 2001 thinking. If Lonzo is averaging 20 ppg but he's taking 18 3s per games, you're pretty (bleep) happy with that. If he's averaging 20 ppg because he's shooting 48% on 11 3s per game, you're pretty unhappy with that.

So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:05 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
Quote:
Nope. It's honestly a question for the opponent. I think around 20ppg is when they abandon that strategy, and as an opponent I'm going to take my chances on that.

So you... literally did what I'd say you'd do? I don't have my guard up. I don't know how I can make this any clearer. A good coach doesn't get hung up on ppg. That's 2001 thinking. If Lonzo is averaging 20 ppg but he's taking 18 3s per games, you're pretty (bleep) happy with that. If he's averaging 20 ppg because he's shooting 48% on 11 3s per game, you're pretty unhappy with that.

So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.


Cool.

But he's shooting 37.5% right now though. What we don't know is how many times they leave him wide open during a game and how many times he takes the shot.

We don't have that data. But we do know he shoots 37.5% right now. And we know he's not hurting anyone.

Or are you assuming that Lonzo currently takes every wide open three when given the shot?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:11 pm    Post subject:

The God Particle wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
More shots also correlates to more of a willingness to take tougher ones which will hurt the %.


Yeah, I'm going to disagree on this. I think as you get better at shooting 3s, you take more shots.

Blake Griffin, when he first came into the league - shot 29.2% on 0.3 attempts.

Now, he's shooting 36.2% on 6.3 attempts.


Shooting less 3s is easier to shoot a higher percentage and players shoot more when they shoot better. It’s not a one or the other situation.


Damn son! Do you believe what you say?

Shooting less is easier to shoot higher percentage...

Say what?


Disregard .... I see it's already been rehashed the last few pages.

lol

Yikes.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:16 pm    Post subject:

Can't wait for game day.
Reading through this battle of wits is draining.
Never get involved in a land war in Asia!
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tox
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:18 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
tox wrote:
Quote:
Nope. It's honestly a question for the opponent. I think around 20ppg is when they abandon that strategy, and as an opponent I'm going to take my chances on that.

So you... literally did what I'd say you'd do? I don't have my guard up. I don't know how I can make this any clearer. A good coach doesn't get hung up on ppg. That's 2001 thinking. If Lonzo is averaging 20 ppg but he's taking 18 3s per games, you're pretty (bleep) happy with that. If he's averaging 20 ppg because he's shooting 48% on 11 3s per game, you're pretty unhappy with that.

So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.


Cool.

But he's shooting 37.5% right now though. What we don't know is how many times they leave him wide open during a game and how many times he takes the shot.

We don't have that data. But we do know he shoots 37.5% right now. And we know he's not hurting anyone.

Or are you assuming that Lonzo currently takes every wide open three when given the shot?

OK? I think we already established leaving Lonzo wide open is a smart move if he doesn't punish you by shooting.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:23 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.


tox wrote:
OK? I think we already established leaving Lonzo wide open is a smart move if he doesn't punish you by shooting.


cool.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:28 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
tox wrote:
So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.


tox wrote:
OK? I think we already established leaving Lonzo wide open is a smart move if he doesn't punish you by shooting.


cool.


tox wrote:
OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it. Zero risk, high reward. So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open.
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epak
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:29 pm    Post subject:

That time you never shot but somehow had a 35% 3pt fg%
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:29 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
tox wrote:
So, I reiterate, what matters is the percentage he shoots. If he shoots >35%, it's a bad play to leave him wide open.


tox wrote:
OK? I think we already established leaving Lonzo wide open is a smart move if he doesn't punish you by shooting.


cool.


tox wrote:
OK, to me it's self-evident that if he passes the ball when he's wide open on a 3, then you should continue to not guard him because he's not punishing you for it. Zero risk, high reward. So the answer to your question is that if Lonzo is not shooting open 3s, you leave him open.


cool.

/end discussion
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:04 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Anthony F. Irwin
@AnthonyIrwinLA

So one prevalent theory regarding Lonzo’s defense was that he simply wasn’t healthy to start the year (as evidenced by his minutes restriction) and might get better as he got healthy. Data backs this up, too.

October DRTG: 113.1
November DRTG: 104.1
December DTRG: 101.9


His steal rate and block rate have also gone up each month.
Now we need the 3 ball to come back around.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:24 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Quote:
Anthony F. Irwin
@AnthonyIrwinLA

So one prevalent theory regarding Lonzo’s defense was that he simply wasn’t healthy to start the year (as evidenced by his minutes restriction) and might get better as he got healthy. Data backs this up, too.

October DRTG: 113.1
November DRTG: 104.1
December DTRG: 101.9


His steal rate and block rate have also gone up each month.
Guys, is it ok to mention defense? Noticed some people get upset when it's mentioned.


People get upset because he is the No.2 pick which is not his fault. If Ball was a 27 pick , we will be all cheering for him even with all those bricks.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:25 pm    Post subject:

kobe8One wrote:
epak wrote:
Quote:
Anthony F. Irwin
@AnthonyIrwinLA

So one prevalent theory regarding Lonzo’s defense was that he simply wasn’t healthy to start the year (as evidenced by his minutes restriction) and might get better as he got healthy. Data backs this up, too.

October DRTG: 113.1
November DRTG: 104.1
December DTRG: 101.9


His steal rate and block rate have also gone up each month.
Guys, is it ok to mention defense? Noticed some people get upset when it's mentioned.


People get upset because he is the No.2 pick which is not his fault. If Ball was a 27 pick , we will be all cheering for him even with all those bricks.


Why'd you edit my post?
Anyway. Hope one day you cheer for him.
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