OFFICIAL LONZO BALL THREAD
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:23 am    Post subject:

Threatt_Level wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
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Brandon Jennings and MCW looked like future stars after the first couple of months of their NBA careers.


That wasn't my point.

Lonzo wasn't 100% healthy. Jennings and MCW were. Flawed sample.


I'm done. You're hunting for excuses like Markelle Fultz's agent hunting for a diagnosis.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:31 am    Post subject:

epak wrote:
Threatt_Level wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Brandon Jennings and MCW looked like future stars after the first couple of months of their NBA careers.


That wasn't my point.

Lonzo wasn't 100% healthy. Jennings and MCW were. Flawed sample.


I'm done. You're hunting for excuses like Markelle Fultz's agent hunting for a diagnosis.


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The Juggernaut
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:34 am    Post subject:

Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.
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al242
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:38 am    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:
Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.


Both Marcus Smart and Ricky Rubio's worst shooting years are miles ahead of where Lonzo currently sits. He has to be hovering around historical level of ineptness from the offensive side of the floor.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:39 am    Post subject:

al242 wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:
Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.


Both Marcus Smart and Ricky Rubio's worst shooting years are miles ahead of where Lonzo currently sits. He has to be hovering around historical level of ineptness from the offensive side of the floor.


Nah, Marcus Smart is just as bad of a shooter as Zo. Rubio is actually better though, which tells you how terrible Zo is.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:45 am    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:
Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.


I think I would disagree with that statement....his on/off numbers still illustrate the team is better on offense and defense when he is off the court. I know the line has become that he makes a big difference on defense.....and he does, the other team scores 4 more points per 100 possessions when Lonzo is on the court.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:50 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:
Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.


I think I would disagree with that statement....his on/off numbers still illustrate the team is better on offense and defense when he is off the court. I know the line has become that he makes a big difference on defense.....and he does, the other team scores 4 more points per 100 possessions when Lonzo is on the court.


Marcus Smart has the same impact as Zo defensively. Rubio on both ends as well. Zo is not better than those 2 guys yet.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:35 pm    Post subject:

I have noticed that a lot of people are in love with Lonzo’s potential and I don’t blame you. However, Lonzo Ball will never become a championship level PG that you wish. MCW also had tripple doubles (2) and almost a quad double.. that does not mean anything. These guys are trash in today’s NBA because of their inability to shoot or penetrate the lane to create easy shots. That is fine. We can afford a bust in our current situation.

I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides and wall just cooked him.

8ppg (2PT 38%) (3PT 30%) (FT 56%)
5rpg
5apg

If lakers want to go deep in the playoffs they need to bench him.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:37 pm    Post subject:

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I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides


Would love to see which "numbers" show that his defense is not a positive for the team.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:38 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides


Would love to see which "numbers" show that his defense is not a positive for the team.


On/off. There’s numbers to support almost any narrative if you avoid context.
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:35 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides


Would love to see which "numbers" show that his defense is not a positive for the team.


On/off. There’s numbers to support almost any narrative if you avoid context.


Type of people you cannot trust in life:
1. Person who says Lonzo's defense isn't legit at this time.
2. Person who says Lonzo's outside shot is legit at this time.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides


Would love to see which "numbers" show that his defense is not a positive for the team.


On/off. There’s numbers to support almost any narrative if you avoid context.


Type of people you cannot trust in life:
1. Person who says Lonzo's defense isn't legit at this time.
2. Person who says Lonzo's outside shot is legit at this time.



Are there any that fall in the second category?
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:40 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
epak wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides


Would love to see which "numbers" show that his defense is not a positive for the team.


On/off. There’s numbers to support almost any narrative if you avoid context.


Type of people you cannot trust in life:
1. Person who says Lonzo's defense isn't legit at this time.
2. Person who says Lonzo's outside shot is legit at this time.



Are there any that fall in the second category?


I'd like to amend those. Because I have no issues with someone who tries to present a reasonable argument in favor of those beliefs. For me, the untrustworthy ones are:

1. Person who cannot state that Lonzo's defense is legit at this time.
2. Person who cannot state that Lonzo's outside shot is bad at this time.

For some reason, most people seem unable to simply say what is reality. Lonzo is a plus defender that is also horrific at scoring in all aspects.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:49 pm    Post subject:

For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:55 pm    Post subject:

tensorflow wrote:
I have noticed that a lot of people are in love with Lonzo’s potential and I don’t blame you. However, Lonzo Ball will never become a championship level PG that you wish. MCW also had tripple doubles (2) and almost a quad double.. that does not mean anything. These guys are trash in today’s NBA because of their inability to shoot or penetrate the lane to create easy shots. That is fine. We can afford a bust in our current situation.

I keep hearing about his great defense... Can we stop this? numbers show we are better without him on the court on both sides and wall just cooked him.

8ppg (2PT 38%) (3PT 30%) (FT 56%)
5rpg
5apg

If lakers want to go deep in the playoffs they need to bench him.

And I have noticed due to your knowledge of this thread but only having two posts means you are a burner for one of the veteran Lonzo haters in here.
Wonder which poster you are
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 1:57 pm    Post subject:

daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:43 pm    Post subject:

Poor Zo he would have been a stud if this was 90s basketball
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:49 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?


His DRPM is +0.17 as of now. It is trending downward. It was +0.38 a couple weeks ago.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:05 pm    Post subject:

al242 wrote:
The Juggernaut wrote:
Too much statistical gynmastics going on. Reminds me of the Dlo threads.

The fact is Lonzo is a really bad scorer, one of the worst in the league. Until he can improve that to be at least avg he will never live up to the #2 pick he was. Currently he's Marcus Smart/Ricky Rubio level of impact on the game. If he can improve his scoring to be avg (like Jason Kidd did), he will be a perennial all star.


Both Marcus Smart and Ricky Rubio's worst shooting years are miles ahead of where Lonzo currently sits. He has to be hovering around historical level of ineptness from the offensive side of the floor.


Completely false and fake news.

Check our Marcus Smart's second season. It was obviously worse than Lonzo. Third season was worse as well.

Rubio's second season and fourth season were worse than Zo too.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:09 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
epak wrote:
daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?


His DRPM is +0.17 as of now. It is trending downward. It was +0.38 a couple weeks ago.
of course people will ignore these type of posts. i just want to know when luke and magic will pull the plug and start an offensive threat.
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:13 pm    Post subject:

tensorflow wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
epak wrote:
daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?


His DRPM is +0.17 as of now. It is trending downward. It was +0.38 a couple weeks ago.
of course people will ignore these type of posts. i just want to know when luke and magic will pull the plug and start an offensive threat.


2037 after the Ball farewell tour.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:20 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?


but here is the point....last year Lonzo's strongest supporters held up DRPM as the golden metric....updated it weekly in a specific thread, and claimed it had nothing to do with cherry picking a metric that favored Ball. This year, the metric is rarely mentioned, and definitely not updated weekly comparing him against other 2nd year players. Fwiw, I do not trust the metric when it said he was #3 any more or less than when it claims he is #33. The bottom line is the goal posts are consistently moved in discussions involving Ball....you can't look at the stats, and you can only look at a few of the advanced metrics and only some of the time.....there always has to be context for every discussion. Until eventually, the goal posts are moved completely off the field because if one does not see a legit NBA PG....well then they just do not view or understand the game at a high enough level. I mean Ball's greatness has become like religious faith....one can not see it, hear it, or prove it.....but the chosen few know it is real.

Sure there can be context around on/off numbers.....but I struggle when I am told he is an elite defensive player when the team has been significantly better on defense when he is on the bench. It has improved, but it is still a 4 point swing....that is likely more than noise. I think the guy has a lot of ability on that side of the ball....he is great in passing lanes, has good length...seems to know when to help....but he is not a great man on man defender with most good perimeter players without solid help. That is not the end of the world.....pretty much describes Magic Johnson as a defender.

Here is why I have real doubts about Ball ever being a legitimate Top 10-15 type PG in the league.....

Foundation and fundamentals - to have so many physical and athletic gifts, it is a crime that the guy is so raw in the true basic areas of the game. I am talking about simple things like which hand to use, and which foot to jump off of. I have doubts those things can ever be fixed this late in the game, and will always hinder consistency.

His handle - could have included above, but it is a big enough issue for a PG, I think it needs separated. It is like he does not know or is not comfortable enough to shorten/tighten up his dribble in traffic.....then mostly just avoids it all together for this reason. He often looks panicked in traffic with trying to handle the ball, and immediately is looking to give it up to someone...anyone.

His shot - not a shot doctor.....but everyone that seems to claim this title claims a great shot requires consistent mechanics.....and following up on that, consistent mechanics almost always require limited movements. His shot just requires too much movement to get off....and seems like an extremely uphill battle to find true consistency in that shot.

Offensive versatility - can he do anything to score except hit an occasional 3 or a wide open dunk/layup? It seems like every game he hits a 3 pointer or two, and cherry picks for a few open dunks. He seems to have zero feel around the rim or anything in the mid-range. No post game....no spin move....no real go to move. Right now, teams are mostly just shading him...not even really committing to defending him....not sure what he does if a team commits to him in a game plan. Most nights it feels like the best thing he does on offense is just stay out of the way.

I am bias...because of these issues that have always been there....but more so he really is just not my type of player. I just do not see the fire....the swag...the confidence to tell an opponent the Shut the F##k Up if they try him. I know some will cherry pick that line....but not sure I have ever seen a good PG at this level with less external passion. Maybe I am weird and alone on this one....but I would love for Russell and him to get a little tangled tomorrow, and see Ball go nose to nose with him. One of the opponents broadcast teams said it best a couple nights ago...."he plays the game bashful". I hope I am wrong....been wrong about many other Lakers players...and do not recall struggling to admit and celebrate it when it was positive. I do not think if he was drafted by another FO he would likely still even be on the roster....or his seat would definitely be warm in trade rumors.
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:27 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
epak wrote:
daytripper wrote:
For a player that hangs his hat on defense, currently Lonzo is rated #20 in DRPM for PG's. (for reference Steph Curry a supposed poor defender is ranked #19 in the same category). Of course Curry has an OPRM of 5.29 where Zo's OPRM is currently -1.11


Do you recall what Lonzo's drpm when it first came out this year?


but here is the point....last year Lonzo's strongest supporters held up DRPM as the golden metric....updated it weekly in a specific thread, and claimed it had nothing to do with cherry picking a metric that favored Ball. This year, the metric is rarely mentioned, and definitely not updated weekly comparing him against other 2nd year players. Fwiw, I do not trust the metric when it said he was #3 any more or less than when it claims he is #33. The bottom line is the goal posts are consistently moved in discussions involving Ball....you can't look at the stats, and you can only look at a few of the advanced metrics and only some of the time.....there always has to be context for every discussion. Until eventually, the goal posts are moved completely off the field because if one does not see a legit NBA PG....well then they just do not view or understand the game at a high enough level. I mean Ball's greatness has become like religious faith....one can not see it, hear it, or prove it.....but the chosen few know it is real.

Sure there can be context around on/off numbers.....but I struggle when I am told he is an elite defensive player when the team has been significantly better on defense when he is on the bench. It has improved, but it is still a 4 point swing....that is likely more than noise. I think the guy has a lot of ability on that side of the ball....he is great in passing lanes, has good length...seems to know when to help....but he is not a great man on man defender with most good perimeter players without solid help. That is not the end of the world.....pretty much describes Magic Johnson as a defender.

Here is why I have real doubts about Ball ever being a legitimate Top 10-15 type PG in the league.....

Foundation and fundamentals - to have so many physical and athletic gifts, it is a crime that the guy is so raw in the true basic areas of the game. I am talking about simple things like which hand to use, and which foot to jump off of. I have doubts those things can ever be fixed this late in the game, and will always hinder consistency.

His handle - could have included above, but it is a big enough issue for a PG, I think it needs separated. It is like he does not know or is not comfortable enough to shorten/tighten up his dribble in traffic.....then mostly just avoids it all together for this reason. He often looks panicked in traffic with trying to handle the ball, and immediately is looking to give it up to someone...anyone.

His shot - not a shot doctor.....but everyone that seems to claim this title claims a great shot requires consistent mechanics.....and following up on that, consistent mechanics almost always require limited movements. His shot just requires too much movement to get off....and seems like an extremely uphill battle to find true consistency in that shot.

Offensive versatility - can he do anything to score except hit an occasional 3 or a wide open dunk/layup? It seems like every game he hits a 3 pointer or two, and cherry picks for a few open dunks. He seems to have zero feel around the rim or anything in the mid-range. No post game....no spin move....no real go to move. Right now, teams are mostly just shading him...not even really committing to defending him....not sure what he does if a team commits to him in a game plan. Most nights it feels like the best thing he does on offense is just stay out of the way.

I am bias...because of these issues that have always been there....but more so he really is just not my type of player. I just do not see the fire....the swag...the confidence to tell an opponent the Shut the F##k Up if they try him. I know some will cherry pick that line....but not sure I have ever seen a good PG at this level with less external passion. Maybe I am weird and alone on this one....but I would love for Russell and him to get a little tangled tomorrow, and see Ball go nose to nose with him. One of the opponents broadcast teams said it best a couple nights ago...."he plays the game bashful". I hope I am wrong....been wrong about many other Lakers players...and do not recall struggling to admit and celebrate it when it was positive. I do not think if he was drafted by another FO he would likely still even be on the roster....or his seat would definitely be warm in trade rumors.


So you don’t recall?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:33 pm    Post subject:

^^^^no I do not, and the point is why does it matter in the grand scheme? If it was -.19 or +.27......is the conversation somehow different?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 3:39 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
^^^^no I do not, and the point is why does it matter in the grand scheme? If it was -.19 or +.27......is the conversation somehow different?


Doesn’t matter much to me but it matters to the poster who you responded to. I’m assuming he was asking because he believes he played poorly on defense early in the year but has significantly improved and was wondering if the numbers support that.
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