OFFICIAL LONZO BALL THREAD
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saetarubia
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:43 pm    Post subject:

Treble Clef wrote:
epak wrote:
HellCrowe wrote:
Lonzo gets props for the game. Idk the percentages of who played who in this game but with that aggressive mindset, you give the other team another thing to worry about. I don’t care if Westbrook is having a down year, we were not the reason that he got back into momentum.



Not a fan of the hyperbole that goes around with "shut down." But along with your point, here's some numbers:

https://twitter.com/UniqueSportplus/status/1086159189716680705/photo/1


Yeah I think there has been a lot of effort in collecting stats that suggest Lonzo is a shutdown defender but I think too much of this is a team stat, especially with all of the switching. For the point guard to be held in check, it takes the whole team helping each other, switching, avoiding turnovers that will lead to easy baskets, and you also just need some good fortune in the player missing the good shots they do get. The Lakers have had a lot of games where the offense was awful and I don't think the other team caused it with defense and the opposite is true as well.

I think Lonzo has done fine defensively, certainly better than expected since it was rumored to be his weakness. I can't say that I notice a big difference when he is in and out of the game, however, like when Dwight Howard would sub out and Sacre or whoever would allow a layup line. As others have said, its hard for a point guard to be that guy with today's rules.

Lonzo doesn't allow guys to make lazy passes in his presence but I don't think opposing point guards dread playing him or anything.


I noticed something to that effect when we played at Denver. Murray was struggling for space with ZO guarding him and he started getting more room once KCP replaced ZO and he started making shots. ZO later got injured in that game and Nuggets ran away with the game.
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epak
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:32 pm    Post subject:

saetarubia wrote:
Treble Clef wrote:
epak wrote:
HellCrowe wrote:
Lonzo gets props for the game. Idk the percentages of who played who in this game but with that aggressive mindset, you give the other team another thing to worry about. I don’t care if Westbrook is having a down year, we were not the reason that he got back into momentum.



Not a fan of the hyperbole that goes around with "shut down." But along with your point, here's some numbers:

https://twitter.com/UniqueSportplus/status/1086159189716680705/photo/1


Yeah I think there has been a lot of effort in collecting stats that suggest Lonzo is a shutdown defender but I think too much of this is a team stat, especially with all of the switching. For the point guard to be held in check, it takes the whole team helping each other, switching, avoiding turnovers that will lead to easy baskets, and you also just need some good fortune in the player missing the good shots they do get. The Lakers have had a lot of games where the offense was awful and I don't think the other team caused it with defense and the opposite is true as well.

I think Lonzo has done fine defensively, certainly better than expected since it was rumored to be his weakness. I can't say that I notice a big difference when he is in and out of the game, however, like when Dwight Howard would sub out and Sacre or whoever would allow a layup line. As others have said, its hard for a point guard to be that guy with today's rules.

Lonzo doesn't allow guys to make lazy passes in his presence but I don't think opposing point guards dread playing him or anything.


I noticed something to that effect when we played at Denver. Murray was struggling for space with ZO guarding him and he started getting more room once KCP replaced ZO and he started making shots. ZO later got injured in that game and Nuggets ran away with the game.



Just to clear up any misunderstanding with my initial reply in this chain, I just dont like the term "shut down" defender because like you some have mentioned it's hard to be that today. There's too many screens and switches, etc. And it's hard to "shut down" a point guard.

But Lonzo to me is a GREAT defender in today's NBA. He's a solid man to man defender and he's an excellent team defender. And he does it without flopping! Length, strength, athleticism, smarts, instincts and unselfishness. Yea, he's a great defender.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:49 pm    Post subject:

Lonzo is a great defender. I'm not going to get caught up in the "lock down" phrasing etc. It's not a coincidence that some great guards have put up poor shooting numbers when guarded/shots contested by Lonzo. Sure he gets lit up occasionally, but many times it's after being run around screens. There's not a whole lot you can do about that. They set screens for a reason. If Lonzo couldn't stop dribble penetration, they wouldn't use screens at all against him. They'd isolate him and go to town. That doesn't happen.

People just have to be patient, not just with Lonzo but the entire young core. Realize that the Lakers closed that game with 3 21 year-olds and 2 23 year-olds on the court. In a hostile environment against a top 4 WC team. There aren't a lot of teams in the league who can trot that young a lineup out and expect wins. 3 second year players and 2 third year players. Regardless of the talent level, lineups that young just do not win consistently. Hell, the current blueprint of homegrown talent, GSW, didn't even win 47 games until Steph's 4th season (age 24) with 2nd year Klay (age 22). 22 year-old Draymond was only playing 13mpg. They didn't even turn into the GSW we see now until a 2 additional seasons later. Under .500 record until Steph's 4th season in the league. These kids are on an accelerated timeline with LeBron on board, but I think they're all making strides here.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:26 pm    Post subject:

Mr.81 wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mr.81 wrote:
RPM is pretty useless to look at when comparing players, Delovedova has a higher ORPM than Lonzo, Kawhi and Ingram basically have the same DRPM. Honestly just going through the list should be enough for you go not put much if any emphasis on that stat. Don't cherry pick a stat and just try and put one player over the other, It's like saying Ingram is 39 in PER among SF and Lonzo is 60th among PG.


That's a topic that has been exhausted elsewhere. If you don't believe in metrics because they don't match your subjective opinions, that's cool.


If you don't believe in PER because it doesn't match your subjective opinion, that's cool.


Except PER is garbage entirely, whereas RPM has some flaws in the way it's conceived. You can contextualize RPM if you understand how it's calculated and the shortcomings in that kind of statistical method (i.e. ridge regression based on on/off data) -- e.g. I'm pretty sure Hart is "leeching" some of Ingram's DRPM "value" for reasons I've alluded to elsewhere (i.e. Ingram playing out of position at the 2)

Aeneas is right that you can't just criticize RPM because you dislike its conclusion. That doesn't mean it is 100% objective and correct -- but you need some degree of numeracy to be able to parse through where it is going astray. There's a difference between reasoned dismissal and categorical dismissal of a given stat, especially if it's actually worth something as opposed to PER
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:30 pm    Post subject:

Even though he’s been struggling with his shot ever since he broke into the league, he’s still had a lot of “clutch moments” early in his career, which is unusual for a guy who can’t really count on his jump shot yet. It’s still too early to say he’s got the “clutch gene”, but he’s definitely not afraid of the big moment. His PnR play is like night and day compared to last season though, he’s still got a ways to go, but his improvement in this area is really noticeable and a great sign for his future. I’m excited to see him next year with a full offseason of working on his game/strength/explosiveness/.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:19 pm    Post subject:

LBJ23 wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mr.81 wrote:
RPM is pretty useless to look at when comparing players, Delovedova has a higher ORPM than Lonzo, Kawhi and Ingram basically have the same DRPM. Honestly just going through the list should be enough for you go not put much if any emphasis on that stat. Don't cherry pick a stat and just try and put one player over the other, It's like saying Ingram is 39 in PER among SF and Lonzo is 60th among PG.


That's a topic that has been exhausted elsewhere. If you don't believe in metrics because they don't match your subjective opinions, that's cool.


Some people(You) cherry pick metrics to match your opinions and then you talk down or insult people that argue it with different metrics.

Clown show.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:45 pm    Post subject:

Zo had 5 games of 18 or more points last year as a rookie. This season since the Nets game on Dec. 18, Zo has 6 games of 18 or more points in the past month.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:10 pm    Post subject:

JPaulK0n wrote:
Zo had 5 games of 18 or more points last year as a rookie. This season since the Nets game on Dec. 18, Zo has 6 games of 18 or more points in the past month.


For me, it's important that he handle the ball and get 30 minutes. When he is engaged, he's pretty good (free throws notwithstanding.) His shooting is progressing this year. I'm wondering if his off season surgery impacted more than we imaged? I may be imaging it, but his 'sweep' on 3 point shots looks both 'shorter' and smoother. He has had couple quick launches recently that really caught me by surprise.


Last edited by JM on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Sentient Meat
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:11 pm    Post subject:

Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mr.81 wrote:
RPM is pretty useless to look at when comparing players, Delovedova has a higher ORPM than Lonzo, Kawhi and Ingram basically have the same DRPM. Honestly just going through the list should be enough for you go not put much if any emphasis on that stat. Don't cherry pick a stat and just try and put one player over the other, It's like saying Ingram is 39 in PER among SF and Lonzo is 60th among PG.


That's a topic that has been exhausted elsewhere. If you don't believe in metrics because they don't match your subjective opinions, that's cool.


So nobody who disagrees with a metric is objective? Doesn’t sound like you’re looking at the metric objectively with statements like that.


No, I'm talking about people who look at the metric, see that it does not match their preconception, and then go on a rant about metrics. For example, this guy sees that Kawhi and Ingram have a similar DRPM, and he writes off the stat because he doesn't believe it. He can't accept the possibility that Kawhi might be having a subpar year on defense as he comes back from his injury. No, it must be the metric. Earlier this season, we had people saying the same thing about Klay Thompson, until it finally became apparent that Klay Thompson really was having a bad year.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:31 pm    Post subject:

tox wrote:
I'm pretty sure Hart is "leeching" some of Ingram's DRPM "value" for reasons I've alluded to elsewhere (i.e. Ingram playing out of position at the 2)


That's an interesting thought, and you may be right. I won't deny that Hart's DRPM seems high, though I also think that Hart really puts in the work on defense. As is the case with Nance, a lot of Hart's value comes from the way he attacks the "dirty work" aspects of the game. A box out may be more valuable than a rebound under certain circumstances, but this can be invisible unless you're really looking for it. (Again, to be clear, none of this is intended as some sort of backhanded swipe at Ball. He does dirty work, too, and he also does things that draw attention, like blocks and steals.)
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:42 pm    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Usage rate @ 21:

Kobe - 26.8
Zo - 16.9

Ortg @ 21:

Kobe - 110
Zo - 100

Drtg @ 21:

Kobe - 98
Zo - 107
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:43 pm    Post subject:

FanOfFour wrote:
Lonzo is a great defender. I'm not going to get caught up in the "lock down" phrasing etc. It's not a coincidence that some great guards have put up poor shooting numbers when guarded/shots contested by Lonzo. Sure he gets lit up occasionally, but many times it's after being run around screens. There's not a whole lot you can do about that. They set screens for a reason. If Lonzo couldn't stop dribble penetration, they wouldn't use screens at all against him. They'd isolate him and go to town. That doesn't happen.

People just have to be patient, not just with Lonzo but the entire young core. Realize that the Lakers closed that game with 3 21 year-olds and 2 23 year-olds on the court. In a hostile environment against a top 4 WC team. There aren't a lot of teams in the league who can trot that young a lineup out and expect wins. 3 second year players and 2 third year players. Regardless of the talent level, lineups that young just do not win consistently. Hell, the current blueprint of homegrown talent, GSW, didn't even win 47 games until Steph's 4th season (age 24) with 2nd year Klay (age 22). 22 year-old Draymond was only playing 13mpg. They didn't even turn into the GSW we see now until a 2 additional seasons later. Under .500 record until Steph's 4th season in the league. These kids are on an accelerated timeline with LeBron on board, but I think they're all making strides here.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:50 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Mr.81 wrote:
RPM is pretty useless to look at when comparing players, Delovedova has a higher ORPM than Lonzo, Kawhi and Ingram basically have the same DRPM. Honestly just going through the list should be enough for you go not put much if any emphasis on that stat. Don't cherry pick a stat and just try and put one player over the other, It's like saying Ingram is 39 in PER among SF and Lonzo is 60th among PG.


That's a topic that has been exhausted elsewhere. If you don't believe in metrics because they don't match your subjective opinions, that's cool.


So nobody who disagrees with a metric is objective? Doesn’t sound like you’re looking at the metric objectively with statements like that.


No, I'm talking about people who look at the metric, see that it does not match their preconception, and then go on a rant about metrics. For example, this guy sees that Kawhi and Ingram have a similar DRPM, and he writes off the stat because he doesn't believe it. He can't accept the possibility that Kawhi might be having a subpar year on defense as he comes back from his injury. No, it must be the metric. Earlier this season, we had people saying the same thing about Klay Thompson, until it finally became apparent that Klay Thompson really was having a bad year.


I’m not gonna write off the whole metric because of two players but I think it’s more likely that the metric is showing a flaw or two if Ingram and Kawhi are grading out similarly. I have only seen a few Raptors games but he looks very close if not at the level he was at prior to injury. BI is good but not near that level. It may not be a subjective opinion that’s the root of the disagreement but a flaw in the metric. Being overly confident in a metric is just a different form of subjectivity.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:21 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
saetarubia wrote:
Treble Clef wrote:
epak wrote:
HellCrowe wrote:
Lonzo gets props for the game. Idk the percentages of who played who in this game but with that aggressive mindset, you give the other team another thing to worry about. I don’t care if Westbrook is having a down year, we were not the reason that he got back into momentum.



Not a fan of the hyperbole that goes around with "shut down." But along with your point, here's some numbers:

https://twitter.com/UniqueSportplus/status/1086159189716680705/photo/1


Yeah I think there has been a lot of effort in collecting stats that suggest Lonzo is a shutdown defender but I think too much of this is a team stat, especially with all of the switching. For the point guard to be held in check, it takes the whole team helping each other, switching, avoiding turnovers that will lead to easy baskets, and you also just need some good fortune in the player missing the good shots they do get. The Lakers have had a lot of games where the offense was awful and I don't think the other team caused it with defense and the opposite is true as well.

I think Lonzo has done fine defensively, certainly better than expected since it was rumored to be his weakness. I can't say that I notice a big difference when he is in and out of the game, however, like when Dwight Howard would sub out and Sacre or whoever would allow a layup line. As others have said, its hard for a point guard to be that guy with today's rules.

Lonzo doesn't allow guys to make lazy passes in his presence but I don't think opposing point guards dread playing him or anything.


I noticed something to that effect when we played at Denver. Murray was struggling for space with ZO guarding him and he started getting more room once KCP replaced ZO and he started making shots. ZO later got injured in that game and Nuggets ran away with the game.



Just to clear up any misunderstanding with my initial reply in this chain, I just dont like the term "shut down" defender because like you some have mentioned it's hard to be that today. There's too many screens and switches, etc. And it's hard to "shut down" a point guard.

But Lonzo to me is a GREAT defender in today's NBA. He's a solid man to man defender and he's an excellent team defender. And he does it without flopping! Length, strength, athleticism, smarts, instincts and unselfishness. Yea, he's a great defender.

Amen
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:22 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Usage rate @ 21:

Kobe - 26.8
Zo - 16.9

Ortg @ 21:

Kobe - 110
Zo - 100

Drtg @ 21:

Kobe - 98
Zo - 107

RAPM?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:23 pm    Post subject:

I wonder how many first-team all-defense he'll have in his career... 7-8
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:07 pm    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Kobe’s career eFG% was .482. To put this into perspective, the league wide eFG% when Kobe was 21 was .478. This season, it’s .522. That’s how much the league has changed in such a short time. Kobe was .010 above the league average. Ball is .035 below the league average.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:12 pm    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


No one ever called Kobe efficient
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:15 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Kobe’s career eFG% was .482. To put this into perspective, the league wide eFG% when Kobe was 21 was .478. This season, it’s .522. That’s how much the league has changed in such a short time. Kobe was .010 above the league average. Ball is .035 below the league average.


for the context.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:17 pm    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Yeah but Kobe was a relentless machine throughout his career. Lonzo has had maybe one or two games where he played like he had a sack. And I like Lonzo.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:21 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Usage rate @ 21:

Kobe - 26.8
Zo - 16.9

Ortg @ 21:

Kobe - 110
Zo - 100

Drtg @ 21:

Kobe - 98
Zo - 107

RAPM?


Kobe was +3.34 on offense per RAPM NPI.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:43 pm    Post subject:

In case some of you were interested in reading about what each of these advanced metrics are and how they are calculated check out this site:

https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics-101/
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:51 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Dr. Laker wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Usage rate @ 21:

Kobe - 26.8
Zo - 16.9

Ortg @ 21:

Kobe - 110
Zo - 100

Drtg @ 21:

Kobe - 98
Zo - 107

RAPM?


Kobe was +3.34 on offense per RAPM NPI.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:20 pm    Post subject:

Dr. Laker wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
Kobe eFG at 21 .488

Zo eFG at 21 .487

How's that for Ripley's Believe It or Not?


Usage rate @ 21:

Kobe - 26.8
Zo - 16.9

Ortg @ 21:

Kobe - 110
Zo - 100

Drtg @ 21:

Kobe - 98
Zo - 107


I hope we get Klay. He is such a nice fit with this squad and he can play great moving off the ball. Having Zo orchestrate with the others scoring would be some pretty basketball.

I also wish LeBron would be the screener/finisher more in the PnR with Lonzo. It would be unstoppaBall and keep Lonzo’s confidence high for the stretch run. We are going to need all are young guys killing it
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