OFFICIAL KYLE KUZMANIA THREAD (joining team USA in august, p519)
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:39 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
^ I get that. But again, how many total years of high level basketball would you say Jayson Tatum has played vs Kuzma? That matters.


It could POTENTIALLY matter is my point. Some players waste their youth, or their "developmental years."

Players like Wiggins, and KAT. They reached a point at 21 but didn't develop from 21 to 23.

People use youth/age like it's a given that all players develop due to age. Not necessarily.

At some point, you're going to have to actually develop. We can compare Tatum from last year to this year. Did he develop as a player?

Every player is different, and it's not guarantee. So, yeah, Tatum being younger is POTENTIALLY a big checkmark for him when compared to Kuzma. But that's all it is. It's potential.

People argue that it's a given that because Tatum is younger, he's guaranteed to end up better than Kuzma. I don't agree with that.

At some point, you have to drop the age difference and compare both players, mano y mano.


No one is saying it's a guarantee though. Who said that? No one said that.

The whole purpose of bringing up age is because the likelihood of improving significantly when a player is 20 years old, is higher than the likelihood of improving significantly when he is 23.


Which you just brought up. You're using the word "likely" which is just an assumption.

And I'm saying however "likely" you feel it's going to happen, at some point, Tatum's gotta make it a reality. At some point.

So you say, it's relevant today, at 20 vs. 23.

Will it be relevant next year? At 21 vs. 24.

Will it be relevant the year after, at 22 vs. 25?

Will it be relevant the year after that, at 23 vs. 26?

It was relevant last year, when the age differences were 19 and 22. Tatum hasn't really improved much from last year to this year. In fact, some would say he's regressed.

So, is it "likely" simply because of him being 20, or is it "likely" because of what you've seen so far.

When Tatum is 25 and Kuzma is 28 since most players tend to enter their peak around age 24-25.


Man, so for the next 5 years, even if Kuzma is playing better than Tatum, we'll constantly hear that "but, Tatum is 3 years younger"?

I think if that's the case, that's just holding on to excuses by that point.

What's your opinion of Wiggins? He's 23, is he still improving?

What's your opinion of Jahlil Okafor? Is he still improving?

How many players needs 7 years in the league before you can properly assess them?

I have a personal five year rule before looking to shut the door on young players - particularly guys who enter the league at age 19-20 - but that doesn't mean I'm sitting around waiting for Jahlil Okafor to become a star, because he's shown he doesn't have that kind of talent as an upper bound outcome, imo. But he could develop into a useful NBA rotation player after looking putrid his first 2-3 years.

So, no, Tatum as a rookie was better than any season Wiggins or Okafor have produced to date, and he's still arguably better than Kuzma right now when defense is factored in. So if he's on par or better now while being three years younger, I anticipate that with the arc of improvement you see from younger players that he'll clearly separate from Kuzma within the next couple of years before Tatum even enters his prime.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:45 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
I'm not sure what else to tell you other than that the development arc for a player at 20 in their second season, is typically much higher than the development arc for someone who is 23.

Therefore, if you have two players producing roughly the same, but one is 20 and the other is 23, it is likely, that the performance increase for the younger player will be greater, than the performance increase for the older player.

There's data behind it.


ok.

Let me know when age ceases to be a factor then.

Age was a factor last year when Tatum was 19 and Kuzma was 22. They produced roughly the same last year. It was likely last year that the 19 yr old would produce more than the 22 year old.

Now they are 20 and 23, and producing roughly the same. And it's as likely this year that the 20 yr old is going to outproduce the 23 year old.

Let's see what they produce next year when it's 21 and 24. If it's roughly the same, you'd probably tell me again, that it's likely that a 21 yr old outproduces a 24 year old. So, ok, let's see what happens next year.

And the year after that, if again, they produce roughly the same, at 22 and 25, let's see what you say.

And if they keep on producing at the same rate, let's see at what point, you drop the age issue, if at all.

At some point, Tatum's going to have to fulfill that prophesy of being "likely" to outproduce Kuzma. At some point, that's got to come true or he'll be forever chasing those xtra 3 years.

But we can drop it now and revisit this discussion next year and the year after to see if he fulfills your prophesy.


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:46 am    Post subject:

Quote:
ignificant jumps from 20 to 23, and then smaller jumps, if not a decline, from age 23 to 27). Granted, I think it's a fair argument to say well, someone who came in the league younger, will see a flatter arc than someone who came in at 22 or 23.


Yup. This is why teams pay a premium early on in drafting a young player, investing in them, and then having to pay them as they enter their pre-prime. But if there is preternatural talent that is showcased early, that is why they're picked after 1 year in school. Even the Jedis knew that too.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:46 am    Post subject:

lakersboy wrote:
I'll happily keep Kuzma and wouldn't trade him for Tatum straight up.


I believe the sky is the limit for Kuz. He has so many tools in his tool box. He has that alpha Kobe like dog in him. Most people would probably call you crazy but I wouldn't.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:50 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
I'm not sure what else to tell you other than that the development arc for a player at 20 in their second season, is typically much higher than the development arc for someone who is 23.

Therefore, if you have two players producing roughly the same, but one is 20 and the other is 23, it is likely, that the performance increase for the younger player will be greater, than the performance increase for the older player.

There's data behind it.


ok.

Let me know when age ceases to be a factor then.

Age was a factor last year when Tatum was 19 and Kuzma was 22. They produced roughly the same last year. It was likely last year that the 19 yr old would produce more than the 22 year old.

Now they are 20 and 23, and producing roughly the same. And it's as likely this year that the 20 yr old is going to outproduce the 23 year old.

Let's see what they produce next year when it's 21 and 24. If it's roughly the same, you'd probably tell me again, that it's likely that a 21 yr old outproduces a 24 year old. So, ok, let's see what happens next year.

And the year after that, if again, they produce roughly the same, at 22 and 25, let's see what you say.

And if they keep on producing at the same rate, let's see at what point, you drop the age issue, if at all.

At some point, Tatum's going to have to fulfill that prophesy of being "likely" to outproduce Kuzma. At some point, that's got to come true or he'll be forever chasing those xtra 3 years.


Already addressed this. The significance of the age factor diminishes the closer a player is to their prime years (say 23-29 or so). Outside of exceptions, a player isn't very likely to improve significantly once they reach about 23-24.

Once a player is well outside of that window, age becomes a factor whether that is being young, or old.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:50 am    Post subject:

Kuz has the offensive game to go toe to toe with anyone when he's playing well.
The variety of ways in which he scores is amazing.

It's the other side of the ball that he has to work on, if he does improve that part of his game he'll be in the running for an all-star spot.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:53 am    Post subject:

Interesting debate, but regardless, Kuz isn't being traded for Tatum, etc.

We are fortunate to have nabbed a very productive player with a 27th pick. On draft night I was again saying "who, WTF?" and look at him now.

Love his attitude and swagger. Some holes in his game like everyone else, but he's house money to me.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:57 am    Post subject:

LS was at the game on Wednesday. He had good seats and wrote a nice write up on his observations on Kuz. Probably got buried in this thread. And one thing that stood out was he said he was surprised at Kuz's quickness. Stu Lantz also mentioned on one play how quick he was on one play. It's nice to get that kind of perspective from somebody sitting close to the action. Very encouraging.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:02 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
I'm not sure what else to tell you other than that the development arc for a player at 20 in their second season, is typically much higher than the development arc for someone who is 23.

Therefore, if you have two players producing roughly the same, but one is 20 and the other is 23, it is likely, that the performance increase for the younger player will be greater, than the performance increase for the older player.

There's data behind it.


ok.

Let me know when age ceases to be a factor then.

Age was a factor last year when Tatum was 19 and Kuzma was 22. They produced roughly the same last year. It was likely last year that the 19 yr old would produce more than the 22 year old.

Now they are 20 and 23, and producing roughly the same. And it's as likely this year that the 20 yr old is going to outproduce the 23 year old.

Let's see what they produce next year when it's 21 and 24. If it's roughly the same, you'd probably tell me again, that it's likely that a 21 yr old outproduces a 24 year old. So, ok, let's see what happens next year.

And the year after that, if again, they produce roughly the same, at 22 and 25, let's see what you say.

And if they keep on producing at the same rate, let's see at what point, you drop the age issue, if at all.

At some point, Tatum's going to have to fulfill that prophesy of being "likely" to outproduce Kuzma. At some point, that's got to come true or he'll be forever chasing those xtra 3 years.


Already addressed this. The significance of the age factor diminishes the closer a player is to their prime years (say 23-29 or so). Outside of exceptions, a player isn't very likely to improve significantly once they reach about 23-24.

Once a player is well outside of that window, age becomes a factor whether that is being young, or old.


ok

So 3 more years then we won't bring up Tatum's age anymore.

Personally, I have a timelime of about 3-4 years in the league, regardless of age.

Once you've seen a player for 3-4 years, you can confidently project what type of player he'll be in this league. That's my view.

Kuzma and Tatum will have been in the league for 2 years after this season is over.

I give Tatum 1-2 years to show me he'll be better than Kuzma. I don't see it happening.

And my views are not based on the generic 20 yr old, it's based on what I've seen so far of Kuzma and Tatum and their games. It's a specific opinion to these 2 players. It's not a general opinion of all 20 yr olds vs. 23 year olds. If Tatum made a huge jump from last year to this year, I'd feel differently.

For instance, I see Tatum's ceiling being a 23ppg player and Kuzma being a 25ppg player. I can't see Tatum being a 30ppg.

I don't see Tatum being any type of facilator either. So their ceilings as scorers are equal to me. I think Kuzma's ceiling as a scorer is higher.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:16 am    Post subject:

^ What is your specific assessments of Tatum and Kuzma's games now?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:19 am    Post subject:

LKA wrote:
Outspoken wrote:
The most in 29 minutes is the worst stat because Kobe's 63 points in 3 quarters is the most points in x amount of minutes too. It's not a good stat.


It really isnt.

Plus I’m pretty sure Kobe scored 44pts in 27 minutes in that game when he outscored Dallas thru 3 quarters

Ohh but he played 33 mins total and scored 62 lol so it doesnt count.


Lol that what I mean. It seems like an ESPN made up historical stat line.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:20 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ok

So 3 more years then we won't bring up Tatum's age anymore.

Personally, I have a timelime of about 3-4 years in the league, regardless of age.

Once you've seen a player for 3-4 years, you can confidently project what type of player he'll be in this league. That's my view.

Kuzma and Tatum will have been in the league for 2 years after this season is over.

I give Tatum 1-2 years to show me he'll be better than Kuzma. I don't see it happening.

And my views are not based on the generic 20 yr old, it's based on what I've seen so far of Kuzma and Tatum and their games.


Sure, if you don't see it happening, that's all you needed to say.

No need to pretend that age isn't a factor in development.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:30 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ What is your specific assessments of Tatum and Kuzma's games now?


When I see Tatum, I don't see huge room for growth. His game is so perimeter oriented. He has no post up game at all.

If you're going to make the next leap as a perimeter player (and become a superstar) then you need elite perimeter skills.

That means:

1) Handles
2) Vision
3) Shooting
4) Athleticism/height/length/strength

All great perimeter players have some combination of that. Tatum doesn't have great vision, he's not going to be a faciliator, so we can cross that off.

He moves well, but he doesn't have a great advantage athletically or any great length or height.

He handles the ball well for his size, but I don't think it's as good as Durant or Paul George

He shoots the ball pretty good.

Right now, what I see from Tatum is an ISO player that doesn't have great shakeability. He doesn't create easy shots for himself. He takes and makes alot of difficult shots. There's no room for improvement if you're taking difficult shots.

There's more room for improvement from a player that can create easy looks but is missing them. That's not Tatum. Tatum doesn't create easy looks. Alot of him shots are tough looks.

Step back long fadeaway jumpers. If that's his go to move, he's going to have to perfect it.

His room for improvement pretty much hinges on him being a deadly outside shooter. He doesn't get to the basket enough. He doesn't draw alot of fouls.

If you compare Tatum to De'Aaron Fox, you'll see the difference. De'Aaron Fox gets a ton of easy buckets every game. No one can stay in front of that guy. Fox gets his buckets easily. He doesn't work hard for his shots. Fox made that huge jump from year 1 to year 2.

These are the things I look for. Not just simply, oh he's 20 years old, he'll improve with age.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:33 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ok

So 3 more years then we won't bring up Tatum's age anymore.

Personally, I have a timelime of about 3-4 years in the league, regardless of age.

Once you've seen a player for 3-4 years, you can confidently project what type of player he'll be in this league. That's my view.

Kuzma and Tatum will have been in the league for 2 years after this season is over.

I give Tatum 1-2 years to show me he'll be better than Kuzma. I don't see it happening.

And my views are not based on the generic 20 yr old, it's based on what I've seen so far of Kuzma and Tatum and their games.


Sure, if you don't see it happening, that's all you needed to say.

No need to pretend that age isn't a factor in development.


ok?

This discussion's about Kuzma and Tatum. I said, age is not a factor when comparing Kuzma and Tatum (to me).

That's always been the discussion. When did it turn into a discussion about all 20 year olds vs. all 23 year olds?

Go back and read again. It was never a general discussion. It was Kuzma vs. Tatum. I don't see age as a factor when comparing these 2.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:36 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ok

So 3 more years then we won't bring up Tatum's age anymore.

Personally, I have a timelime of about 3-4 years in the league, regardless of age.

Once you've seen a player for 3-4 years, you can confidently project what type of player he'll be in this league. That's my view.

Kuzma and Tatum will have been in the league for 2 years after this season is over.

I give Tatum 1-2 years to show me he'll be better than Kuzma. I don't see it happening.

And my views are not based on the generic 20 yr old, it's based on what I've seen so far of Kuzma and Tatum and their games.


Sure, if you don't see it happening, that's all you needed to say.

No need to pretend that age isn't a factor in development.


ok?

This discussion's about Kuzma and Tatum. I said, age is not a factor when comparing Kuzma and Tatum (to me).

That's always been the discussion. When did it turn into a discussion about all 20 year olds vs. all 23 year olds?

Go back and read again. It was never a general discussion. It was Kuzma vs. Tatum. I don't see age as a factor when comparing these 2.


Ok, fair enough.

So age IS a factor generally speaking when you're talking about a 20 year old versus a 23 year old -- but in this instance for you, it's not as it relates to Tatum. Am I understanding you correctly?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:38 am    Post subject:

Outspoken wrote:
The most in 29 minutes is the worst stat because Kobe's 63 points in 3 quarters is the most points in x amount of minutes too. It's not a good stat.


It is a cherry picked stat that means little in the long run. Just an opportunity for someone to express their bias. So perfect for a message board.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:40 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:


Ok, fair enough.

So age IS a factor generally speaking when you're talking about a 20 year old versus a 23 year old -- but in this instance for you, it's not as it relates to Tatum. Am I understanding you correctly?


Yes, as a general rule, age is a factor. At some point, you have to throw out the age excuse. And when you throw it out depends on how you view things.

And for me, after seeing Kuzma and Tatum play and develop, I'm going to throw it out. Not completely, but I'm close to saying that age is not going to be a factor.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:45 am    Post subject:

Outspoken wrote:
LKA wrote:
Outspoken wrote:
The most in 29 minutes is the worst stat because Kobe's 63 points in 3 quarters is the most points in x amount of minutes too. It's not a good stat.


It really isnt.

Plus I’m pretty sure Kobe scored 44pts in 27 minutes in that game when he outscored Dallas thru 3 quarters

Ohh but he played 33 mins total and scored 62 lol so it doesnt count.


Lol that what I mean. It seems like an ESPN made up historical stat line.


It's not made up. He is the first Laker to score 41 points in 3 quarters while playing less than 30 minutes. It is what it is.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:53 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:


Ok, fair enough.

So age IS a factor generally speaking when you're talking about a 20 year old versus a 23 year old -- but in this instance for you, it's not as it relates to Tatum. Am I understanding you correctly?


Yes, as a general rule, age is a factor. At some point, you have to throw out the age excuse. And when you throw it out depends on how you view things.

And for me, after seeing Kuzma and Tatum play and develop, I'm going to throw it out. Not completely, but I'm close to saying that age is not going to be a factor.


Watching them play has led you to conclude that whatever steps, forwards or backwards, these two particular players take, has no relationship to their age whatsoever?

And so if by some miracle it does happen for Tatum, it would be for any number of reasons but definitely, certainly, absolutely not age?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:55 am    Post subject:

tatum is a better shooter, but kuzma has so many ways to score. if he can develop into a 35-38% 3pt shooter, 25 ppg is attainable. he just needs to up that rebounding to become an all-star caliber player.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:57 am    Post subject:

His rookie year he shot 35% 3pt. Playing and getting more comfortable with Lebron I have no doubt he will get back to at least 35%.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:07 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
ringfinger wrote:


Ok, fair enough.

So age IS a factor generally speaking when you're talking about a 20 year old versus a 23 year old -- but in this instance for you, it's not as it relates to Tatum. Am I understanding you correctly?


Yes, as a general rule, age is a factor. At some point, you have to throw out the age excuse. And when you throw it out depends on how you view things.

And for me, after seeing Kuzma and Tatum play and develop, I'm going to throw it out. Not completely, but I'm close to saying that age is not going to be a factor.


Watching them play has led you to conclude that whatever steps, forwards or backwards, these two particular players take, has no relationship to their age whatsoever?

And so if by some miracle it does happen for Tatum, it would be for any number of reasons but definitely, certainly, absolutely not age?


Well, that sounds kind of snarky. I thought we were making progress.

Anyways, that sounds like a rhetorical question but I'm going to treat it as a genuine question and answer it.

Maybe I can better explain it if I quantify it.

Let's say you can rate a player from 1-100.

Let's say, in my mind, I see Kuzma's ceiling at an (85) and Tatum's potential at an (85).

Let's say as of right now, I rate Kuzma as a (60) - age 23 and I rate Tatum as a (60) age 20.

One viewpoint is that, well, if Tatum is already a (60) at age 20, well then surely, he's going to become a better player than Kuzma, who's a (60) but at age 23.

I understand that viewpoint.

My viewpoint is, at some point, if they reach their potential, they're both going to top out at (85). So, then, age doesn't matter to ME.

So, age would matter to me if I thought Tatum's ceiling was higher than an (85). Maybe a (90) or (100). Then age would matter because he would need that extra time to develop. So to answer your question, if Tatum turns out to be a (90) or (100), I would be wrong.



And that's something I want to make clear. It's how I see things. I'm not trying to convince you to see things my way. By all means, take age into consideration. That's cool.

I'm not trying to convince you otherwise. I'm just trying to articulate how I see things. And I'm fine that you disagree.

But I fail to see the need to get snarky about it just because you disagree. I'm not in it to change your opinion. I'm just expressing my opinion. If you disagree, that's totally cool with me.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:13 am    Post subject:

32 wrote:
Outspoken wrote:
LKA wrote:
Outspoken wrote:
The most in 29 minutes is the worst stat because Kobe's 63 points in 3 quarters is the most points in x amount of minutes too. It's not a good stat.


It really isnt.

Plus I’m pretty sure Kobe scored 44pts in 27 minutes in that game when he outscored Dallas thru 3 quarters

Ohh but he played 33 mins total and scored 62 lol so it doesnt count.


Lol that what I mean. It seems like an ESPN made up historical stat line.


It's not made up. He is the first Laker to score 41 points in 3 quarters while playing less than 30 minutes. It is what it is.


just didn't/doesn't sound right...Kobe 62 in 33?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:15 am    Post subject:

That stat is what it is I don't know why people are getting so bent out of shape about it.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:16 am    Post subject:

32 wrote:
That stat is what it is I don't know why people are getting so bent out of shape about it.


It's actually not a stat, it's an arbitrary cut off. That's the difference.

I can say, Kuzma scored the most points in Laker history, while wearing the number 0.

It'd be a fact (probably). And it's just a random cut off.
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