2017-2018 Lakers lineup Rotation and Minutes Breakdown
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greenfrog
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
So JC goes from leading the team in minutes per game (Luke ) down to 20? I dunno, that seems drastic.


Whose minutes are being taken away? Maybe Ennis. But i get the sense that he will get 11-12 mpg to back up the PG spot.


Brewer. The can use three guard lineups with Zo at the 3.

And if Kuz is only playing 9 minutes it's time to get Tom Izzo on the phone.


I know the designations at the "positions" are relics of the past, but when you break it down person by person, you start to see we may have a very crunched up SG position. If Luke wants JC to be the primary backup PG, then that will subsume a lot of Ennis's minutes, but i'm not sure that's what Luke wants.

So what's your minutes allocation?


Using your template (I'm in a crunch for time), I'd have Randle and Nance both at 23, and give the difference to Kuzma. If he's the best shooter of the bunch then he's the best power forward.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:14 pm    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
So JC goes from leading the team in minutes per game (Luke ) down to 20? I dunno, that seems drastic.


Whose minutes are being taken away? Maybe Ennis. But i get the sense that he will get 11-12 mpg to back up the PG spot.


Brewer. The can use three guard lineups with Zo at the 3.

And if Kuz is only playing 9 minutes it's time to get Tom Izzo on the phone.


I know the designations at the "positions" are relics of the past, but when you break it down person by person, you start to see we may have a very crunched up SG position. If Luke wants JC to be the primary backup PG, then that will subsume a lot of Ennis's minutes, but i'm not sure that's what Luke wants.

So what's your minutes allocation?


Using your template (I'm in a crunch for time), I'd have Randle and Nance both at 23, and give the difference to Kuzma. If he's the best shooter of the bunch then he's the best power forward.


you seemed to take exception to the guard minute allocations. I'm sure we'll occasionally run a few 3 guard lineups, but i don't expect that to be the norm given that we already have a SF minutes crunch with Ingram/Brewer/Deng/Kuz all capable of SF minutes.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:16 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
So JC goes from leading the team in minutes per game (Luke ) down to 20? I dunno, that seems drastic.


Whose minutes are being taken away? Maybe Ennis. But i get the sense that he will get 11-12 mpg to back up the PG spot.


Brewer. The can use three guard lineups with Zo at the 3.

And if Kuz is only playing 9 minutes it's time to get Tom Izzo on the phone.


I know the designations at the "positions" are relics of the past, but when you break it down person by person, you start to see we may have a very crunched up SG position. If Luke wants JC to be the primary backup PG, then that will subsume a lot of Ennis's minutes, but i'm not sure that's what Luke wants.

So what's your minutes allocation?


Using your template (I'm in a crunch for time), I'd have Randle and Nance both at 23, and give the difference to Kuzma. If he's the best shooter of the bunch then he's the best power forward.


you seemed to take exception to the guard minute allocations. I'm sure we'll occasionally run a few 3 guard lineups, but i don't expect that to be the norm given that we already have a SF minutes crunch with Ingram/Brewer/Deng/Kuz all capable of SF minutes.


I hardly call that a crunch, except for Kuzma. It's a weak position.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:19 pm    Post subject:

Quote:

I hardly call that a crunch, except for Kuzma. It's a weak position.


48 minutes at SF.

Ingram sops up 30-32mpg.

16mpg up for grabs with Brewer/Deng/Kuz.

You're saying that Lonzo or other guards will take more minutes there?
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:53 pm    Post subject:

Jiggling Jello wrote:
Ball (28) / Clarkson (15) / Ennis (5)
Pope (32) / Clarkson (12) / Brewer (4)
Ingram (30) / Deng (10) / Brewer (8)
Randle (18) / Nance (20) / Deng (10)
Lopez (30) / Randle (10) / Zubac (8)

I don't foresee Kuzma being played much, if at all, until later on in the season, when everyone will know whether Deng is more than a sack of potatoes on the court.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:08 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:

I hardly call that a crunch, except for Kuzma. It's a weak position.


48 minutes at SF.

Ingram sops up 30-32mpg.

16mpg up for grabs with Brewer/Deng/Kuz.

You're saying that Lonzo or other guards will take more minutes there?


Given Luke's affinity for playing JC, I'd say yes.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:09 pm    Post subject:

Ball (28)/Ennis (12)/Clarkson (8)
KCP (28)/Clarkson (16)/Hart (4)
Ingram (28)/Kuzma (18)/Hart (2)
Kuzma (12)/Nance (28)/Randle (8)
Lopez (28)/Randle (20)

(28): Ball Ingram KCP Kuzma Lopez Nance Randle
(24): Clarkson
(12): Ennis
(6): Hart


The first team is my closing line-up.
I gave Clarkson 24 mins because we have to keep his trade value high if we need his cap space for 2018. I would of split the minutes between the 3 backup guards evenly.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:24 pm    Post subject:

Lucky_Shot wrote:
Ball (28)/Ennis (12)/Hart (4)/Clarkson (4)
KCP (28)/Clarkson (20)
Ingram (28)/Kuzma (18)/Hart (2)
Kuzma (12)/Nance (28)/Randle (8)
Lopez (28)/Randle (20)

(28): Ball Ingram KCP Kuzma Lopez Nance Randle
(24): Clarkson
(12): Ennis
(6): Hart


The first team is my closing line-up.
I gave Clarkson 24 mins because we have to keep his trade value high if we need his cap space for 2018. I would of split the minutes between the 3 backup guards evenly.


Probably an underrated factor in his playing time last season, especially post-ASB/Magic takeover. More than a 5 MPG jump.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:44 pm    Post subject:

The detail in these estimates is fascinating. Not.

Really, the first training camp hasn't even taken place. I have a feeling that minutes are going to get doled out this season based on who outplays who with whom, in two phases of the season. I am not predicting minutes by name nor rotation of starters or finishers, but am predicting this pattern to develop:

- the early season goal will be to try to win games using a mix of a vet or two at once, but rarely using three or more at a time, emphasizing development of "the kids" to the greatest extent practicable with an eye on the record. That is, until ...

- the mid-season mark of 40 games or so (and under 18 wins) occurs, when the W-L balance is so jagged in terms of playoff hopes being slashed that coaching tactics shifts gears away from using the vets. At this point, the vets will be largely sent back to the bench except for Lopez (if healthy), to the extent that the kids are healthy enough to play and "season themselves together" as much as possible. It's not tanking, but it's prioritizing the gaining of understanding for which of the kids still fit with the three year plan.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:57 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
I have in total:

Ingram (32)
KCP (31)
Ball (30)
Randle (30)
Brook (28)
Nance (26)
JC (20)
Brewer (12)
Kuz (9)
Zub (5).

Man, don't know how Zub is going to get many minutes unless Lopez is hurt.


You hit it on the nose. You get it....Brewer will play more minutes than Deng. Guaranteed.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:20 pm    Post subject:

Although I get why people create these minutes predictions, they typically do not put a lot of thought into what will be actionable - the substitution patterns and rotations that will occur during a game. People submit lists with nearly every player getting some minutes during any given game and that almost never happens. Sure, does every player average some minutes? Yes, but the average happens due to injuries and garbage time. We may see Thomas Bryant average 10 MPG, but he will only have appeared in a few games. I'd love minutes predictions for what would be our team at full strength, which would likely only see 9 or 10 guys receiving minutes.

I made a post back in 2012 for rotations/substitution patterns. I would love to see LG create rotations like below and provide their logic. Maybe I should create a thread with my own rotation prediction and we go from there...

Quote:
The Lakers have looked out of sync early on in the season and the main causes for concern in terms of play on the court have been turnovers and defense, which I believe is a result of the most pressing issue, the rotations.

Mike Brown has admitted recently that his rotations havenít been set yet and he wants to get a feel for his tall, lengthy line-up (Blake/Ebanks/Jamison/Hill/Pau or Dwight) by playing it extended minutes especially since, according to him, he didnít give this line-up enough time on the floor in the pre-season. Now, I believe a lot of the poor play (turnovers, bad defense) relates to the line-ups that Brown has been putting out there on the floor. The bench has still been under-producing and this is because the tall, lengthy line-up is not able to compete at both ends of the floor. Offensively, they are not able to space the floor well or get easy shots because of the lack of playmaking (Blake is the sole playmaker, but the congestion mitigates his effectiveness) and that leads to turnovers and easy possessions for the opposing team. Defensively, they do have length and Mike Brown loves their length, but they are simply too slow and are unable to rotate and recover well enough to compete effectively at that end.

The most worrisome consequence to the downfalls of Brownís preferred bench line-up has been the increased minutes on Kobe Bryant (or should I say, the continuation of his high minutes totals from the previous season). Kobe is still right up there at 38 MPG and Phil Jackson saw two years ago that Kobe needed rest to extend his career by playing him at 33 MPG. Brown needs to aim around that number (or maybe around 35).

In my opinion, Mike Brown needs to do a couple of things to set these rotations straight and this is how I believe he can do it.

The Starting Unit

Nash
Bryant
Metta
Pau
Howard

We can all pretty much agree on this. While I would love to see Ebanks get a chance to start, I understand that Metta will be an integral part of our defense in the playoffs against Durant and Lebron and we need Metta to have confidence playing minutes with the starting unit.

4 Minute Mark

Blake
Bryant
Metta
Pau
Howard

We want to limit Nashís minutes in the regular season. I donít think his back issues are too much to be worried about as long as we monitor his minutes. He is 38 years old and we are trying to put together a string of multiple championships so the regular season is just about pacing and gaining chemistry. I like inserting Blake as the first man off the bench especially since I can tell he is a rhythm player by how well he is playing with more minutes as of late.

3 Minute Mark

Blake
Kobe
Jamison
Hill
Dwight

One minute later, Iíd like to see Jamison and Hill get inserted for Metta and Pau. I feel a huge issue this year has been Mettaís minutes. Metta has been playing far too many minutes. In most games, he is getting taken out AT THE END of the first quarter.

Jamison getting in earlier and playing alongside Kobe (rather than Ebanks and to start the 2nd) is going to be HUGE for his rhythm and confidence. I can totally see Jamison getting an easy bucket or two next to Kobe and Dwight, which will boost his confidence and ease him into his 2nd quarter role as the leader of the 2nd unit. Mike Brown also gets to have his TL (tall and lengthy) line-up (compromise, right?).

1 Minute Mark

Blake
Meeks
Jamison
Hill
Dwight

My most innovative and groundbreaking change to the line-up would be bringing Meeks in for Kobe (rather than Ebanks). Brown loses his beloved TL lineup, but Meeks gets a minute in the game to establish a rhythm by probably getting up a shot or two before the end of the quarter.

2nd Quarter

Blake
Meeks
Ebanks
Jamison
Hill

The most controversial aspect of my 1st half rotations is starting off the first 4 minutes of the 2nd quarter with all bench players. My argument would be that the previous line-up with four bench players and one of our starting bigs was simply not working and this line-up would have a reinvigorated Jamison (in theory). Jamison can have a well-defined role of go-to scorer and playmaker as the stretch 4 alongside Blake. Offensively, the line-up becomes more dynamic and spaces the floor much better than the TL lineup because of Meeks. Defensively, the lineup doesnít lose much in length because of the gain in speed. Also, I like Ebanks a lot more at his natural position of SF.

8 Minute Mark

Nash
Meeks
Ebanks
Jamison
Pau

For the next two minutes, Nash and Pau can play a great two man P&R game with Meeks and Jamison spacing the floor and Ebanks slashing towards the basket. This lineup will play very well in transition and can rely on Pauís post play in the half-court. I also would love to see a Nash/Meeks backcourt because of the prolific 3 pt shooting.

6 Minute Mark

Nash
Kobe
Metta
Pau
Dwight

At the six minute mark, we can bring back our starters to finish the quarter. If Meeks or Ebanks is playing well, then an alternative line-up would be keeping Meeks in and bringing Kobe in at SF or keeping Ebanks in and subbing Metta in at a later time. With these rotations, Nash plays 16 minutes in the 1st half (on pace for 32, which is exactly where we want him), Kobe plays 17 minutes (on pace for 34, but if we are in a tight game, he can play 20+ min in the 2nd half and still play less than 40 on the night), Metta plays 15 (on pace for 30, which is much better than the 35 that he is playing right now), Pau plays 17 (on pace for 34), and Dwight plays 18 (our youngest starter and superstar in his prime). I only set out a 1st half rotation because the rotations in the 1st half are usually set more in stone (foul trouble is usually the only deterrent) and the 2nd half depends on the context of the game (whether itís a blowout or a close game).

By using these rotations, I think the Lakers can maximize the talent on their roster and foster a competitive bench.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:55 pm    Post subject:

70sdude wrote:
The detail in these estimates is fascinating. Not.

Really, the first training camp hasn't even taken place. I have a feeling that minutes are going to get doled out this season based on who outplays who with whom, in two phases of the season. I am not predicting minutes by name nor rotation of starters or finishers, but am predicting this pattern to develop:

- the early season goal will be to try to win games using a mix of a vet or two at once, but rarely using three or more at a time, emphasizing development of "the kids" to the greatest extent practicable with an eye on the record. That is, until ...

- the mid-season mark of 40 games or so (and under 18 wins) occurs, when the W-L balance is so jagged in terms of playoff hopes being slashed that coaching tactics shifts gears away from using the vets. At this point, the vets will be largely sent back to the bench except for Lopez (if healthy), to the extent that the kids are healthy enough to play and "season themselves together" as much as possible. It's not tanking, but it's prioritizing the gaining of understanding for which of the kids still fit with the three year plan.


If your second scenario happens, Magic will probably resign. The Lakers have no time to let the young players come into their own, and I doubt Paul George will want to join a sub-30 win team. The "kids" will have to sink or swim, and I think Magic has made this implicitly clear.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:01 pm    Post subject:

It looks pretty common across the board that its:
Clarkson 6th man
Nance 7th

...then some combination of trying to find minutes for Kuzma and then Zubac and the other subs depending on development.

Also consider that the pace will likely wear on guys at some of these minute marks. Maybe we won't like seeing Lonzo on the bench for 18 min, but pace him at first. Same goes for Ingram maybe just over 30 but not the 35 min range.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:44 pm    Post subject:

Last Season for comparison

Clarkson 29.2
Ingram 28.8
Randle 28.8
Deng 26.5
Nance 22.9
Zubac 16.0
Brewer 14.9
Ennis 17.8

I just hope whoever gives us the best chance to win gets the most minutes. Luke was a bit weird about that last year.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:55 pm    Post subject:

*I really do think that Luke comes out with some 3 guard lineups. KCP, Clarkson and Hart can all play the guard spot, and because of Lonzo's height and KCP's defensive versatility, you can still survive those two guarding the SF spot (especially if Zo actually gains some strength). However, because Zo isn't strong enough yet, I think that 3 guard lineup only happens maybe 8 minutes per game max.

*I think we limit Nance to 20-22 minutes per game to ensure he stays fresh and to keep him healthy.

*I'd expect Nance to be our primary back up C, with Zubac, unfortunately, receiving a demotion next year.

* I do not believe that any player plays more than 32 minutes per game.

*Deng is a wild card. Lets say he comes back in crazy good shape and shows he's not washed up. At that point, he probably steals minutes from Kuzma (who I have pegged as the primary back up at the 3 and 4 spots).

I've posted this elsewhere, but I could see something like this -

PG: Ball (22) / Clarkson (26)
SG: KCP (32) / Hart (16)
SF: Ingram (26) / Kuzma (16) / Ball (8)
PF: Randle (32) / Kuzma (10) / Ingram (6)
C: Lopez (28) / Nance (20)

Ennis, Brewer, Deng and Zubac get spot minutes depending on whether the game is a blow out or not. Brewer picks up minutes at the 2 and the 3 depending on injuries. Bryant and Caruso play in the d-league.

Ingram - 32 MPG
KCP - 32 MPG
Randle - 32 MPG
Ball - 30 MPG
Lopez - 28 MPG
Clarkson - 26 MPG
Kuzma - 26 MPG
Nance - 20 MPG
Hart - 16 MPG
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:01 pm    Post subject:

I don't know why anyone would get too hung up on last season's minutes and rotations. The tank was on once it was obvious no playoffs would happen. Nwaba was getting 20 minutes a game for cripesakes. It wasn't until Phoenix went on that ungodly counter-a-tank streak where it was obvious our team even with poor lineups would still win games on accident, did the team actually try to win with more than enough distance between 3rd and 4th. I honestly don't know how you can put much stock in what we saw last season other than the team being competitive in more games and not getting blown out in the first quarter or half as often as past seasons. The only obvious takeaway was that Luke was going to play Ingram minutes early on even if he did struggle.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:23 am    Post subject:

FanOfFour wrote:
I don't know why anyone would get too hung up on last season's minutes and rotations. The tank was on once it was obvious no playoffs would happen. Nwaba was getting 20 minutes a game for cripesakes. It wasn't until Phoenix went on that ungodly counter-a-tank streak where it was obvious our team even with poor lineups would still win games on accident, did the team actually try to win with more than enough distance between 3rd and 4th. I honestly don't know how you can put much stock in what we saw last season other than the team being competitive in more games and not getting blown out in the first quarter or half as often as past seasons. The only obvious takeaway was that Luke was going to play Ingram minutes early on even if he did struggle.


Nwaba was getting minutes because he was one of our best defenders, the only guard with a reasonable DRPM.

Basketball is not all about offense, you can't compete without defense.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:05 am    Post subject:

If you are Walton, do you play your best players, or do you highlight players to demonstrate their trade value?

If Kuzma proves better than Randle, does the rookie start? If Hart and Ennis play better than Clarkson, do they move above JC in the rotation? If Deng is useless, do you give him zero minutes?

In other words, do you go all out for wins (thus building a winning culture and making the Lakers a more attractive destination to free agents), or do you showcase players' trade value (and thus make it easier to free up cap space)?
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:51 am    Post subject:

Lucky_Shot wrote:
Ball (28)/Ennis (12)/Clarkson (8)
KCP (28)/Clarkson (16)/Hart (4)
Ingram (28)/Kuzma (18)/Hart (2)
Kuzma (12)/Nance (28)/Randle (8)
Lopez (28)/Randle (20)

(28): Ball Ingram KCP Kuzma Lopez Nance Randle
(24): Clarkson
(12): Ennis
(6): Hart


The first team is my closing line-up.
I gave Clarkson 24 mins because we have to keep his trade value high if we need his cap space for 2018. I would of split the minutes between the 3 backup guards evenly.
For Kuzma: 18+12 =28??? Link to New Math
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:26 am    Post subject:

Realistic Expectations for Los Angeles Lakers' 2017-18 Starting Lineup

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The 2017-18 Los Angeles Lakers won't be playoff-relevant, and they might not be much better than last season's 56-loss bunch.

But another thing they shouldn't be is boring, particularly with their revamped starting lineup. The opening group will likely be 60 percent new, and all five members bring their own intrigue.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2725941-realistic-expectations-for-los-angeles-lakers-2017-18-starting-lineup
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:17 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
So JC goes from leading the team in minutes per game (Luke ) down to 20? I dunno, that seems drastic.


Whose minutes are being taken away? Maybe Ennis. But i get the sense that he will get 11-12 mpg to back up the PG spot.


Ennis shouldn't be getting more than spot minutes unless we decide to tank again.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
So JC goes from leading the team in minutes per game (Luke ) down to 20? I dunno, that seems drastic.


Whose minutes are being taken away? Maybe Ennis. But i get the sense that he will get 11-12 mpg to back up the PG spot.


Ennis shouldn't be getting more than spot minutes unless we decide to tank again.


So since team Tank Guards was DLO/Lou/Swaggy/JC, do you not want to play JC too?
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:28 am    Post subject:

Jiggling Jello wrote:
70sdude wrote:
The detail in these estimates is fascinating. Not.

Really, the first training camp hasn't even taken place. I have a feeling that minutes are going to get doled out this season based on who outplays who with whom, in two phases of the season. I am not predicting minutes by name nor rotation of starters or finishers, but am predicting this pattern to develop:

- the early season goal will be to try to win games using a mix of a vet or two at once, but rarely using three or more at a time, emphasizing development of "the kids" to the greatest extent practicable with an eye on the record. That is, until ...

- the mid-season mark of 40 games or so (and under 18 wins) occurs, when the W-L balance is so jagged in terms of playoff hopes being slashed that coaching tactics shifts gears away from using the vets. At this point, the vets will be largely sent back to the bench except for Lopez (if healthy), to the extent that the kids are healthy enough to play and "season themselves together" as much as possible. It's not tanking, but it's prioritizing the gaining of understanding for which of the kids still fit with the three year plan.


If your second scenario happens, Magic will probably resign. The Lakers have no time to let the young players come into their own, and I doubt Paul George will want to join a sub-30 win team. The "kids" will have to sink or swim, and I think Magic has made this implicitly clear.


If we have no time to let young players come into their own then we need to trade them now. Because they won't be tearing the league up this season. You either develop them or trade them. If Magic expects them to be instant stars then he is in over his head.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:29 am    Post subject:

I hope the main group is

Lonzo/Clarkson1
Pope/Clarkson2
Ingram/Kuzma
Randle/Nance
Lopez/Zubac

9 players in total
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:31 am    Post subject:

nash wrote:
FanOfFour wrote:
I don't know why anyone would get too hung up on last season's minutes and rotations. The tank was on once it was obvious no playoffs would happen. Nwaba was getting 20 minutes a game for cripesakes. It wasn't until Phoenix went on that ungodly counter-a-tank streak where it was obvious our team even with poor lineups would still win games on accident, did the team actually try to win with more than enough distance between 3rd and 4th. I honestly don't know how you can put much stock in what we saw last season other than the team being competitive in more games and not getting blown out in the first quarter or half as often as past seasons. The only obvious takeaway was that Luke was going to play Ingram minutes early on even if he did struggle.


Nwaba was getting minutes because he was one of our best defenders, the only guard with a reasonable DRPM.

Basketball is not all about offense, you can't compete without defense.


And as was posted, he got minutes when we didn't want to win. He was a tank player.
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