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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 5:31 pm    Post subject:

Zeke granted TRO, likely to play all season long.

Fantasy players with #3 and #4 picks got the shaft.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/362421/zeke-granted-tro-likely-to-play-all-season?ls=roto:DAL:topheadlines
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:22 pm    Post subject:

Just got offered Julio Jones and Big Ben for Zeke and one of my QB's (posted my team on last page). Really thinking I might do this.. Any thoughts?
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:36 pm    Post subject:

AY2043 wrote:
Just got offered Julio Jones and Big Ben for Zeke and one of my QB's (posted my team on last page). Really thinking I might do this.. Any thoughts?


Ben has been so bad on the road that I am not sure how big of an upgrade he is over, say, Palmer (whom I like more than Eli). That said, Julio certainly gives your WR's an upgrade. Is there no way that you can try offering Murray and one of your QB's instead for Julio and Ben? I mean, Zeke Elliott would've been the #3 overall pick in drafts if he had no suspension hanging over him. You can argue that Antonio Brown probably goes 4th, and then maybe Julio 5th. I don't think it's necessarily a terrible deal, but I'd really try to move Murray instead. I think he might break down this season.
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Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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LakersChamps04
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject:

I agree win Stu. Big Ben is okkk and zeke >> Julio
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:01 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
Just got offered Julio Jones and Big Ben for Zeke and one of my QB's (posted my team on last page). Really thinking I might do this.. Any thoughts?


Ben has been so bad on the road that I am not sure how big of an upgrade he is over, say, Palmer (whom I like more than Eli). That said, Julio certainly gives your WR's an upgrade. Is there no way that you can try offering Murray and one of your QB's instead for Julio and Ben? I mean, Zeke Elliott would've been the #3 overall pick in drafts if he had no suspension hanging over him. You can argue that Antonio Brown probably goes 4th, and then maybe Julio 5th. I don't think it's necessarily a terrible deal, but I'd really try to move Murray instead. I think he might break down this season.

I don't think the other owner would do it. I actually offered him Murray for Ben and Demarius Thomas before he came back with the Julio/Ben for Zeke offer.

Looking at other teams, I could try Murray for Andy Luck/Tyreke Hill, Murray for Carr/TY Hilton, or Murray for Brees/Kelvin Benjamin. I offered another team Murray/Wentz for Brady/Amari Cooper earlier, but got turned down.

I definitely tend to agree with you that Murray is the guy to trade out of my 3 RB's. It's just everyone I talk to thinks they can pry Zeke or Bell because I'm so deep at RB and so weak at QB.
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:03 pm    Post subject:

I was on the fence but you guys edged me towards keeping Zeke haha.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:18 pm    Post subject:

AY2043 wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
Just got offered Julio Jones and Big Ben for Zeke and one of my QB's (posted my team on last page). Really thinking I might do this.. Any thoughts?


Ben has been so bad on the road that I am not sure how big of an upgrade he is over, say, Palmer (whom I like more than Eli). That said, Julio certainly gives your WR's an upgrade. Is there no way that you can try offering Murray and one of your QB's instead for Julio and Ben? I mean, Zeke Elliott would've been the #3 overall pick in drafts if he had no suspension hanging over him. You can argue that Antonio Brown probably goes 4th, and then maybe Julio 5th. I don't think it's necessarily a terrible deal, but I'd really try to move Murray instead. I think he might break down this season.

I don't think the other owner would do it. I actually offered him Murray for Ben and Demarius Thomas before he came back with the Julio/Ben for Zeke offer.

Looking at other teams, I could try Murray for Andy Luck/Tyreke Hill, Murray for Carr/TY Hilton, or Murray for Brees/Kelvin Benjamin. I offered another team Murray/Wentz for Brady/Amari Cooper earlier, but got turned down.

I definitely tend to agree with you that Murray is the guy to trade out of my 3 RB's. It's just everyone I talk to thinks they can pry Zeke or Bell because I'm so deep at RB and so weak at QB.


I would give up both Eli and Palmer, plus Murray, for Brees and Benjamin if you could pull that off. Brees would be a significant upgrade for you, and Wentz might be similar to Eli and Palmer, with a shot at even being better. And I really like Benjamin this season.
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My current plan of attack:

Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject:

It's so much harder to make trades these days than it was in the past. Too much information out there to inform the uninformed.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:06 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
It's so much harder to make trades these days than it was in the past. Too much information out there to inform the uninformed.


Yeah I agree. And people tend to overvalue their own players and won't make an honest assessment.
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My current plan of attack:

Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:54 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
It's so much harder to make trades these days than it was in the past. Too much information out there to inform the uninformed.


Yeah I agree. And people tend to overvalue their own players and won't make an honest assessment.

100%. Too often it happens where someone hears Mathew Berry mention one their 5th WR as a sleeper, that player instantly becomes untouchable
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:31 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
It's so much harder to make trades these days than it was in the past. Too much information out there to inform the uninformed.


Yeah I agree. And people tend to overvalue their own players and won't make an honest assessment.


Well, that was always the case. But now, they come out with these sell high, buy low articles, and who to pick up in Week X, it just makes it too easy for people not to put in the work which is half the fun for me anyway.

Heck, I think it"s NFL.com who has a commercial out for their fantasy app where you can press one button and it sets your optimal lineup for you. Lame.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:57 am    Post subject:

Zeke absolutely humiliating Goodell.

Not sure what Roger the Dodger is there for, other than bad Public Relations?
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Moses
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:41 am    Post subject:

The NFL... where half assed disciplinary proceedings happen
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Freddie Buckets
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Zeke absolutely humiliating Goodell.

Not sure what Roger the Dodger is there for, other than bad Public Relations?


I have no doubt that Zeke serves his suspension next year. I drafted him in the second round this year thinking it would like the Brady case.
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:15 am    Post subject:

It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:11 pm    Post subject:

AY2043 wrote:
It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.


That's what I did in the league where I got Zeke. I took him with my 2nd round pick in a 12-teamer, #18 overall, and I got McFadden later in the draft.
_________________
My current plan of attack:

Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.


That's what I did in the league where I got Zeke. I took him with my 2nd round pick in a 12-teamer, #18 overall, and I got McFadden later in the draft.


Same. I got DJ at #1. Then took Zeke at #20. Picked up McFadden way late after the 12th round somewhere. Got Kareem Hunt too. Stacked at RB which left me with Philip Rivers as my starting QB. Trying to pickup Carson Palmer off waivers and dump McFadden.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:05 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Zeke absolutely humiliating Goodell.

Not sure what Roger the Dodger is there for, other than bad Public Relations?


The NFL owners love him.
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LakersChamps04
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:34 pm    Post subject:

Ziggy wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.


That's what I did in the league where I got Zeke. I took him with my 2nd round pick in a 12-teamer, #18 overall, and I got McFadden later in the draft.


Same. I got DJ at #1. Then took Zeke at #20. Picked up McFadden way late after the 12th round somewhere. Got Kareem Hunt too. Stacked at RB which left me with Philip Rivers as my starting QB. Trying to pickup Carson Palmer off waivers and dump McFadden.
you dont have faith in Rivers?
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:56 pm    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
Ziggy wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.


That's what I did in the league where I got Zeke. I took him with my 2nd round pick in a 12-teamer, #18 overall, and I got McFadden later in the draft.


Same. I got DJ at #1. Then took Zeke at #20. Picked up McFadden way late after the 12th round somewhere. Got Kareem Hunt too. Stacked at RB which left me with Philip Rivers as my starting QB. Trying to pickup Carson Palmer off waivers and dump McFadden.
you dont have faith in Rivers?


He's very suspect IMO. Fantasy wise anyway.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:05 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
LakersChamps04 wrote:
Ziggy wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
It always made a certain amount of sense to draft Zeke high relative to his ADP this year, provided you drafted McFadden in the 90-110 range.

You figure McFadden performs at the level of say RB12 while Zeke is suspended weeks 1-7. That's roughly the equivalent of Fournette/Miller/McCafferey, who have ADP's in the 25-30. Then you figure Zeke would have been drafted likely 3rd overall, and you have him Weeks 8-16. That averages out to a player with value at roughly #16 overall, which is about 8 spots higher than Zeke's ADP.

Then, it was pretty obvious there was a non-zero chance of exactly what happened yesterday ending up happening. So if you assume a 40% chance of having the 3rd overall player for the entire season and a 60% chance of having the equivalent of the 16th overall player for the season, that averages out to a player with value at pick #11-Ish.

So at pick 20-25, that's really good value.


That's what I did in the league where I got Zeke. I took him with my 2nd round pick in a 12-teamer, #18 overall, and I got McFadden later in the draft.


Same. I got DJ at #1. Then took Zeke at #20. Picked up McFadden way late after the 12th round somewhere. Got Kareem Hunt too. Stacked at RB which left me with Philip Rivers as my starting QB. Trying to pickup Carson Palmer off waivers and dump McFadden.
you dont have faith in Rivers?


He's very suspect IMO. Fantasy wise anyway.


He's still finished as a back-end QB1 over the recent past. He's started hot and finished poorly. Still, his weapons appear to be his best in a really long time. Their schedule starts tough this year and then eases up. He's also been very durable. Ultimately, I think he'll finish between QB10-14.
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My current plan of attack:

Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:15 pm    Post subject:

He led the league in picks laat year and was outperformed by Blake Bortles.

Don't get me wrong, under the right circumstances, I'd absolutely play Rivers but he is too dicey to warrant being yout every week starter in fantasy. If he is who you have and that's it, you'll probably need to ride a second QB on your bench and stream their starts.

QB10-QB14 is not, IMO, QB1 territory. A QB1 is someone you play regardless of matchup.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:23 pm    Post subject:

He's got Kennan Allen back and also Hunter Henry looks pretty good. Last year he had no weapons at all after early injuries.

That said, I wouldn't start Rivers this week.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:33 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
He led the league in picks laat year and was outperformed by Blake Bortles.

Don't get me wrong, under the right circumstances, I'd absolutely play Rivers but he is too dicey to warrant being yout every week starter in fantasy. If he is who you have and that's it, you'll probably need to ride a second QB on your bench and stream their starts.

QB10-QB14 is not, IMO, QB1 territory. A QB1 is someone you play regardless of matchup.


I do agree that I'd feel iffy if he were my every-week starter. I never just wait THAT long for a QB. But in 12-team leagues, a QB10-14 is a QB1, that's all I meant. I also agree that I wouldn't start him this week.
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My current plan of attack:

Get involved in this Melo-to-Houston trade, making it a 4-teamer with MIL and us. Deng ends up going to the Knicks, who get picks from us and MIL; we absorb Monroe's expiring.
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AY2043
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject:

It's the same story with Rivers every year. He starts off really hot when he has the whole team healthy. Then, inevitably, some time during weeks 4-6, at least 2 or 3 starting offensive lineman and one starting receiver go down, and his numbers start to decrease. Then he picks up some nagging shoulder injury due to being knocked down every other time he drops back because no one can block for him, and his performance suffers even more. Then by the end of the year, he's throwing up 250 yard 1 TD/3 INT games all over the place

Maybe this is the year the Chargers actually stay relatively healthy, but early signs seem to be pointing towards "no".
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