It should just be that each team in the lottery has the same chance.
This. Give every team in the lottery the same odds, and limit the number of times you can be in the top two or three consecutively. _________________ "It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up."-The Greatest
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Posts: 22838 Location: La Jolla, San Diego
Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:58 pm Post subject:
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
Posted: Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:51 am Post subject: Lottery: after watching ESPN 30 for 30 (Orlando Magic)
I'd love to see the lottery drawing be an honest one.
To me, the more disturbing aspect of the lottery has been the impression I've formed from the eye test (only) that the NBA doesn't always conduct an honest weighted lottery draw. There's been a few franchise-propelling long-shot benefactors of lottery ball drops for the top pick that looked stunningly enough like, ummm, well, let's say suspiciously-looking enough to call 'em fixed.
1985: Pat Ewing to the NY Knicks
1993: Chris Webber to the Orlando Magic
1998: Tim Duncan to the San Antonio Spurs
The 1993 odds seemed the worst case, when the team with the longest odds in the lottery (1 in however many) earned the top pick. That pick walked like a duck, quacked like a duck, it was duck.
Here's a fun read (!) on the opposing view on the draft "fairness":
I'm no statistics whiz, so apologies given up front for the referral, if you find that the article's thesis doesn't stand up to much rigor in terms of an analytical examination.
Last edited by 70sdude on Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total
The only real purpose of lottery reform is to eliminate tanking and I don't see how this does that. I'm still a fan of The Wheel. _________________ 14-5-3-12
I'm no statistics whiz, so apologies given up front for the referral, if you find that the article's thesis doesn't stand up to much rigor in terms of an analytical examination.
It's fairly obvious, really. Randomness means that sometimes unlikely things are going to happen. People concoct conspiracy theories after the fact, but when people have tried to propose conspiracy theories in advance, they usually bomb. In other words, once the lottery has been won by, say, the Cavs, people declare that it must be a conspiracy to repay Gilbert because he lost Lebron. But if the Raptors had won the lottery, it would have been a conspiracy to compensate them for losing Bosh. One year, someone made a contest of it -- come up with a conspiracy theory for why each of the lottery teams will be given the #1 pick.
I'm no statistics whiz, so apologies given up front for the referral, if you find that the article's thesis doesn't stand up to much rigor in terms of an analytical examination.
It's fairly obvious, really. Randomness means that sometimes unlikely things are going to happen. People concoct conspiracy theories after the fact, but when people have tried to propose conspiracy theories in advance, they usually bomb. In other words, once the lottery has been won by, say, the Cavs, people declare that it must be a conspiracy to repay Gilbert because he lost Lebron. But if the Raptors had won the lottery, it would have been a conspiracy to compensate them for losing Bosh. One year, someone made a contest of it -- come up with a conspiracy theory for why each of the lottery teams will be given the #1 pick.
i hear you AH. but thats not exactly how the nba lotto theories have gone.
The theories have been more realistic. If by chance the raptors won it finally. no one would be upset or think of a theory aside from saying "maybe the nba is paying them back for all those years of not allowing them to get a # pic"
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
No matter where you put it, there will be motivations to lose, you need to make the motivations to not lose greater than the motivation to lose, the only spot i could think of to take that away would be to say give the lowest percent to the last non playoff team and all first round losers (because no one would actually try to lose a playoff series for a 1% lottery chance, the trade off would never be worth it).
The risk you run is say a really good team suffers an injury, but that's not really all that different to a year where a team loses them earlier in the year rather than later (see tim duncan)
I like the idea of near odds at the bottom, but there should be a point where it slowly degrades, hopefully as far away from dead last. You'll always have some jostling, but really, the major goal is for the product at the bottom to not descend into an unwatchable (bleep) like it's been so if the degradation is far enough away from the bottom, it should alleviate that. _________________ I believe everything the media tells me except for anything for which I have direct personal knowledge, which they always get wrong
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Posts: 22838 Location: La Jolla, San Diego
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:47 am Post subject:
lakersken80 wrote:
22 wrote:
Runway8 wrote:
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Posts: 22838 Location: La Jolla, San Diego
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:53 am Post subject:
Telleris wrote:
Runway8 wrote:
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
No matter where you put it, there will be motivations to lose, you need to make the motivations to not lose greater than the motivation to lose, the only spot i could think of to take that away would be to say give the lowest percent to the last non playoff team and all first round losers (because no one would actually try to lose a playoff series for a 1% lottery chance, the trade off would never be worth it).
The risk you run is say a really good team suffers an injury, but that's not really all that different to a year where a team loses them earlier in the year rather than later (see tim duncan)
I like the idea of near odds at the bottom, but there should be a point where it slowly degrades, hopefully as far away from dead last. You'll always have some jostling, but really, the major goal is for the product at the bottom to not descend into an unwatchable (bleep) like it's been so if the degradation is far enough away from the bottom, it should alleviate that.
I just don't think the problem is as big as fans make it out to be. We are the tankers because we are armchair managers. Likewise, the managers in the NBA are the ones who tank, not players. They put them in position to lose by not playing the good players significant minutes, labeling players with bogus injuries, drafting and stashing, etc. Players don't tank so a new hot shot could take their job. Lou Williams spoke about this.
Philly took it to the extreme and so there is this appearance of a problem. But I don't think it's a big problem as the media makes it out to be. I'd like to see playoff seeding reform first.
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
The incentive is $$$ bonuses and competitive drive. The players don't tank. And this would not be done in the summer, I'd imagine it taking place during the 1st round of the playoffs.
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
The incentive is $$$ bonuses and competitive drive. The players don't tank. And this would not be done in the summer, I'd imagine it taking place during the 1st round of the playoffs.
The players just went thru an 82 game season and they missed the playoffs....if anything they want to go on summer vacation ASAP. They don't want to play a one and done tournament that does nothing for their future. The draft lottery is for the owners and GM to worry about.
Joined: 02 Jun 2009 Posts: 2415 Location: Far from home
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:44 am Post subject:
The 1993 draft lottery provides strength for the most compelling argument for the league having intervened in some way to force the outcome. One may claim it represents (instead) some sort of ultimate confirmation of the lottery's randomness, but I don't buy into that.
Of the drawings to date, it represented far and away the longest odds of yielding the top outcome and it did. It also placed the top pick in the hands of the youngest franchise with the league's newest rising star. Too convenient, and we know that no one can hold the league accountable for conducting an honest drawing. Relying on a Big Five accounting firm for credibility only project a public aura of honesty, it does not assure it. _________________ “These GOAT discussions are fun distractions while sitting around waiting for the pizza to be served.”
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
The incentive is $$$ bonuses and competitive drive. The players don't tank. And this would not be done in the summer, I'd imagine it taking place during the 1st round of the playoffs.
The players just went thru an 82 game season and they missed the playoffs....if anything they want to go on summer vacation ASAP. They don't want to play a one and done tournament that does nothing for their future. The draft lottery is for the owners and GM to worry about.
Disagree. Players want to play and show who's better. You think the nets, or Philly, or our players like being called the worst in the league? Put some fat bonus checks on the line and I bet you'd see some competitive play among the league bottom feeders. It would only be another week of basketball before their vacations.
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Posts: 22838 Location: La Jolla, San Diego
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:53 pm Post subject:
22 wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
22 wrote:
Runway8 wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
22 wrote:
Runway8 wrote:
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
The incentive is $$$ bonuses and competitive drive. The players don't tank. And this would not be done in the summer, I'd imagine it taking place during the 1st round of the playoffs.
The players just went thru an 82 game season and they missed the playoffs....if anything they want to go on summer vacation ASAP. They don't want to play a one and done tournament that does nothing for their future. The draft lottery is for the owners and GM to worry about.
Disagree. Players want to play and show who's better. You think the nets, or Philly, or our players like being called the worst in the league? Put some fat bonus checks on the line and I bet you'd see some competitive play among the league bottom feeders. It would only be another week of basketball before their vacations.
What's a "fat" bonus check for these ballers? The league would make it reasonable, and I think reasonable wouldn't provide the motivation. If you make it TOO fat then you're rewarding losing teams money, which is kinda weird. Free agents to be. What do you do with them? Do we still consider them under contract and forced to play this tournament? And if management has plans to trade players during the summer like the Lakers clearly did, then they wouldn't risk the injury.
Joined: 27 Jun 2005 Posts: 29999 Location: Likely nowhere near you
Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:16 pm Post subject:
Wilkes52 wrote:
The 1993 draft lottery provides strength for the most compelling argument for the league having intervened in some way to force the outcome. One may claim it represents (instead) some sort of ultimate confirmation of the lottery's randomness, but I don't buy into that.
Of the drawings to date, it represented far and away the longest odds of yielding the top outcome and it did. It also placed the top pick in the hands of the youngest franchise with the league's newest rising star. Too convenient, and we know that no one can hold the league accountable for conducting an honest drawing. Relying on a Big Five accounting firm for credibility only project a public aura of honesty, it does not assure it.
That's exactly what I was thinking. I was trying hard to find an image or video of Stern's face when Orlando got the #1 pick again.
This also means the Spurs get another chance to get a Duncan like they did when Boston had the best odds of landing the #1 pick. _________________ Courage doesn't always roar.
Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying...'I will try again tomorrow.'
Just thought of this, how about best record of a non-playoff team gets equal ping pong balls with the worst record. Bad teams will be deterred from tanking because they'll now get ping pong competition from top non-playoff teams. Borderline playoff teams will keep pushing because it's win/win for them.
You go down the line... 2nd best non playoff team gets equal ping pong ball with 2nd worst. 3rd best = 3rd worst, etc
Overall, everyone is motivated from the beginning of the year to get a playoff spot because it's win/win if you don't. But I personally think you need playoff seeding reform, conference and division reform before you need to mess with the lottery.
Agreed with this approach. Top 16 records overall make it in.
I also would like to see an NCAA style 1 loss elimination tournament among lottery teams for best odds at the #1 pick
Will probably be one of the worst 1 and done tournaments ever....a bunch of teams that didn't make the playoffs play their little hearts out to get a draft pick to get a player that could put them out of a job....
John Ireland always pushes for this idea, and I also don't think it would ever work. There is simply no motivation for players to play their hearts out to win the right to pick a new hot shot that will take their spot. Plus, roster situations in the summer are very fluid. Like, without our draft picks in hand first, who would have played for the Lakers for the 2017 Draft Tournament? Even if tournament started prior to Russell trade, you can bet Russell had already heard the rumors, so where is his heart in this tournament? Our free agents such as Nick Young wouldn't play also. Too many variables.
The incentive is $$$ bonuses and competitive drive. The players don't tank. And this would not be done in the summer, I'd imagine it taking place during the 1st round of the playoffs.
The players just went thru an 82 game season and they missed the playoffs....if anything they want to go on summer vacation ASAP. They don't want to play a one and done tournament that does nothing for their future. The draft lottery is for the owners and GM to worry about.
Disagree. Players want to play and show who's better. You think the nets, or Philly, or our players like being called the worst in the league? Put some fat bonus checks on the line and I bet you'd see some competitive play among the league bottom feeders. It would only be another week of basketball before their vacations.
What's a "fat" bonus check for these ballers? The league would make it reasonable, and I think reasonable wouldn't provide the motivation. If you make it TOO fat then you're rewarding losing teams money, which is kinda weird. Free agents to be. What do you do with them? Do we still consider them under contract and forced to play this tournament? And if management has plans to trade players during the summer like the Lakers clearly did, then they wouldn't risk the injury.
This is a nice video game idea, not real world.
It wouldn't matter they would be under contract. Players don't have the option to just stop playing lol.
Joined: 19 Apr 2003 Posts: 22838 Location: La Jolla, San Diego
Posted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:29 pm Post subject:
MJST wrote:
Eliminate the draft and make them all free agents and set the 'rookie max' they can be paid by other teams pursuing them.
Problem solved.
That doesn't solve anything. It will solve the Lakers problem though. LOL! NY, LA, big markets.. they'd love that idea. Unless, you're talking about some sort of progressive rookie max? The worst team will have the highest rookie max contract to offer, the best team will have the lowest. Now, that could be something. You wanna play for $1 million a year for your childhood team, or $5 million a year for the worst team? NBA teams will have to recruit and pitch just like college.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum