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dont_be_a_wuss
Franchise Player
Joined: 29 Mar 2012
Posts: 21458
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 Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:16 am Post subject: |
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| Vanquish wrote: |
This being said, I don't think we can keep Bryant for salary, unless perhaps we fit Lance under the room exception? Too lazy to do the math to see if that would work.  |
It should have worked, but I think it's too late for that as Lance already signed using cap space. Hopefully they have someone in mind for that room exception. |
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Aike
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 May 2017
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:10 am Post subject: |
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| RowellGboy7 wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
1. I can’t take you seriously when the foundation of your logic is that the amount of time spent to earn less than equivalent money is irrelevant. Whether it takes you 1 year or 50 years longer to make similar money, you’re still in worse shape.
2. You give Randle a good chance to make more money next summer, but don’t give the same benefit of the doubt for Jabari that he’ll play well enough to have his option picked up. Way too biased.
If both plays well, Jabari gets his option picked up and/or get an extension, while Randle fetches a bigger contract. However, at the exact same point in time Randle will be $31M behind Jabari on year two.
If both plays bad, Randle picks up his player option. Chicago declines Jabari’s option, and he goes to play for at least the minimum somewhere else.
Jabari makes more money in either case.
Your only hope for salvation is Randle plays good and Jabari plays bad to justify your point.
It’s reaaaaaallllllly not complicated bro |
1. My foundation is that one is guaranteed $18 million while the other is guaranteed $20 million. The rest is window dressing.
You are clearly putting words in my mouth as well. Never even hinted that earnings in 1 year vs. 50 years equate. I said that in 10 years, they wouldn’t care if it took 1 or 2 years to earn that guarantee. They would still have nearly the same wealth accumulated. Maybe pick up a Finance course, or better yet, cut the hyperbole.
2. I didn’t assign odds to either’s prospects. Structurally, Randle has a better opportunity to exceed his current contract BECAUSE HE HAS AN OPT-OUT.
Maybe the Bulls love Parker and extend him early. Never said they wouldn’t. Again, you putting words in my mouth. My entire premise is that the contracts aren’t that different because the guaranteed money is nearly the same, and Randle has an option next summer while Jabari does not. In fact, the Bulls have the option to pay him $0.
But if you want to make up something else I said so you can knock it down, whatever.
Last edited by Aike on Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:13 am; edited 2 times in total |
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rebirth
Star Player
Joined: 26 Apr 2005
Posts: 3970
Location: Garden Grove
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:11 am Post subject: |
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Okafor maybe worth giving a shot. Is there any substance to it or just kicking it around?
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“What is 17,505”
“Rest at the end not at the middle” |
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LongBeachPoly
Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16137
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:20 am Post subject: |
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| Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
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Aike
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 May 2017
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:27 am Post subject: |
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| Daphanabe wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | Vanquish wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | DeeAgeaux wrote: | Parker has to work one year to get $20M
Randle has to work two years to get $18M
I would rather work half as much and make 11% more money. |
Missing the forest for the trees.
Randle might make $30 million the next two years and Parker might make $25 mil. We just can’t know.
All we know is that one has a guarantee to get paid $20 million, while the other has a guarantee to make at least $18 million, barring some bizarre circumstances. The rest is just window dressing. |
I still prefer Parker’s deal. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush |
That’s fine if you prefer it, but Parker’s 2019-2020 salary is still in the bush. |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Your logic is highly flawed since your baseline assumption is Randle’s best case combined with Parker’s worst. How fair is that? It’s pretty obvious you’re trying to jump through all these convoluted hoops to try and salvage what was obviously a bad summer for Randle — the market did not value him highly at all (or he is properly valued and LG was just overrating him). |
My baseline is not an assumption at all. My baseline is that one has a $20 million guarantee while the other has an $18 million guarantee.
I know the $40 million on Jabari’s deal is a big shiny number, but it isn’t real. At least not yet. The Bucks renounced him so that the Bulls could sign him to a deal that allowed them to cut him loose after one season. That is certainly an option on the table, just as Randle opting out and signing a better deal is an option.
I’m not trying to assign odds to the possibility of every scenario. If you want to do that, fine. My entire premise is that the reality of the contracts isn’t much different, and it will be 12 months before the situation can be properly evaluated.
And no, Randle didn’t do that well this summer. Look around the league and tell me which free agents who left their teams got a stack of guaranteed money? Lebron?
But he did ok. He basically got 4th or 5th starter level pay, a guarantee in excess of his career earnings to date, and an opt out that gives him a chance next summer.
Jabari Parker got something similar. A $20 million guarantee, and a chance to prove himself. He’s in a similar position that KCP found himself in last summer. |
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Aike
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 May 2017
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:36 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
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LongBeachPoly
Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16137
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:42 am Post subject: |
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| Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
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Aike
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 May 2017
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:48 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
Sure it is. Randle would choose the most money he could get with an opt out. Which he did. |
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LongBeachPoly
Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16137
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 7:50 am Post subject: |
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| Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
Sure it is. Randle would choose the most money he could get with an opt out. Which he did. |
So what's your answer then?
That Randle prefers 2 yrs $18 mil w/ the player option over 2 yrs $40 mil w/ the team option? |
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Aike
Starting Rotation
Joined: 17 May 2017
Posts: 274
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:06 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
Sure it is. Randle would choose the most money he could get with an opt out. Which he did. |
So what's your answer then?
That Randle prefers 2 yrs $18 mil w/ the player option over 2 yrs $40 mil w/ the team option? |
I think he probably does, because he’s betting on himself in a better free agent market next summer. It’s a false premise, of course, because the Pelicans only had $9 million to offer.
We know he valued the opportunity to play beside AD and I’m sure he feels that will benefit him next summer. Does he see himself with the Pelicans long term? How about, does he see AD with the Pelicans long term?
I appreciate what you’re trying to do, but the truth is that these decisions are more complex than you’re trying to paint them to be. Knowing what I know, I think Randle would choose option 1. If it were actually a choice between the two. Which it wasn’t. But what I know is drastically less than what Randle and his agent know. |
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LongBeachPoly
Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16137
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:46 am Post subject: |
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| Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
Sure it is. Randle would choose the most money he could get with an opt out. Which he did. |
So what's your answer then?
That Randle prefers 2 yrs $18 mil w/ the player option over 2 yrs $40 mil w/ the team option? |
I think he probably does, because he’s betting on himself in a better free agent market next summer. It’s a false premise, of course, because the Pelicans only had $9 million to offer.
We know he valued the opportunity to play beside AD and I’m sure he feels that will benefit him next summer. Does he see himself with the Pelicans long term? How about, does he see AD with the Pelicans long term?
I appreciate what you’re trying to do, but the truth is that these decisions are more complex than you’re trying to paint them to be. Knowing what I know, I think Randle would choose option 1. If it were actually a choice between the two. Which it wasn’t. But what I know is drastically less than what Randle and his agent know. |
And what about Parker? What would Parker choose?
Also, regarding the bolded: didn't you say that both deals can be broken down into comparing the guaranteed money and everything else is just window dressing?
So, that's what I'm asking you. After you've broken it down, which would you prefer? Now, you're arguing about the "window dressing"
Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:56 am; edited 1 time in total |
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MJST
Retired Number
Joined: 06 Jul 2014
Posts: 26309
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:54 am Post subject: |
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it's very simple.
The Bulls get to decide whether Jabari gets to stay for another 20M after this season, dependent upon his health.
Julius gets to decide whether he wants to opt into his 2nd year or not. But regardless of how he performs than 2nd year is a guaranteed option for him and the only reason he opts out of it is if he can make more money.
That is not the case for Jabari. He doesn't have that 2nd year in his back pocket.
So if we want to go best case scenario for both players.
Jabari's best case scenario is he remains healthy this season, and the Bulls bring him back for a 2nd year at 20M.
Randle's best case scenario is that he plays like an improved version of what he was last season, putting up the kind of numbers he put up as a starter for us, and thus opts out of his 2nd year at 18M and then re-signs on a 4 year deal at 25-30M per season.
So even in both of their best case scenarios, Randle stands to make more money than Jabari does.
In the scenario that Jabari gets his 2nd season, and Randle opts into his 2nd year with New Orleans, then Jabari just makes 4M more.
So once more, perspective.
Now in the worst case scenario, Jabari doesn't remain healthy consistently, or doesn't play up to the level and the Bulls don't bring him back for 20M the next season and he either has to take far less, or he has to find another team where his market has tanked further.
In the worst case scenario for Randle, he'd play worse than he played for us, and then at the end of the season he'd still have an opt in option for 18M.
So in their worst case scenario, Randle is near guaranteed to make more money, in their best case scenario, Randle is guaranteed to make more money.
The only scenario where Jabari makes more than him across these next two seasons is if the best case scenario happened for Jabari, and the worst case scenario happened for Randle.
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How NBA 2K18 failed the All-Time Lakers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxMBYm3wwxk |
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LongBeachPoly
Franchise Player
Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16137
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: | In the scenario that Jabari gets his 2nd season, and Randle opts into his 2nd year with New Orleans, then Jabari just makes 4M more.
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I got lost on this part
| Quote: | | In the worst case scenario for Randle, he'd play worse than he played for us, and then at the end of the season he'd still have an opt in option for 18M. |
Oh, I think you don't understand the deal of Randle's contract. Randle gets $9 mil per year not $18.
Does that change your calculations?
| Quote: | So in their worst case scenario, Randle is near guaranteed to make more money, in their best case scenario, Randle is guaranteed to make more money.
The only scenario where Jabari makes more than him across these next two seasons is if the best case scenario happened for Jabari, and the worst case scenario happened for Randle. |
Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:04 am; edited 3 times in total |
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justsomelakerfan
Franchise Player
Joined: 16 Jul 2016
Posts: 10939
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? I kinda think so. Like they'll be better than people expect if they're healthy, but if LeBron misses a significant portion of time I could see it going south. Still kinda wish we traded for a second option
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Austin Reaves
Tweeter: @sarah_dotbiz |
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adkindo
Retired Number
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 40345
Location: Dirty South
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:01 am Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? |
yes |
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LakerDYnasty72
Star Player
Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Posts: 4568
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:04 am Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? I kinda think so. Like they'll be better than people expect if they're healthy, but if LeBron misses a significant portion of time I could see it going south. Still kinda wish we traded for a second option |
The brain trust of the Lakers has been making some very deft choices. It's resulted in both a great young nucleus, and a bona fide superstar attracted enough to join them.
They know we need a bit more. Trust the process. It's working so far. |
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justsomelakerfan
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:05 am Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | | justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? |
yes |
Too much improvement in the west without a team blowing it up.
Even if LA signed a few different vets it would be this way.
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justsomelakerfan
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Joined: 16 Jul 2016
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:08 am Post subject: |
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| LakerDYnasty72 wrote: | | justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? I kinda think so. Like they'll be better than people expect if they're healthy, but if LeBron misses a significant portion of time I could see it going south. Still kinda wish we traded for a second option |
The brain trust of the Lakers has been making some very deft choices. It's resulted in both a great young nucleus, and a bona fide superstar attracted enough to join them.
They know we need a bit more. Trust the process. It's working so far. |
I'm not souring on the process - just wishing we had a second option if LeBron misses time. Just about every team in the west has improved. As have the Lakers but the gap closes fast it LeBron's out
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Cow
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:09 am Post subject: |
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I can't believe how many pages of this thread have been dedicated to debating Jabari vs. Randle's contracts.
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adkindo
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | | justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? |
yes |
Too much improvement in the west without a team blowing it up.
Even if LA signed a few different vets it would be this way. |
This team without Lebron is very similar in talent to last year....improved young guys, but loss of Brook and Randle would show without Lebron. Everyone says we may struggle for a few months....I do not think that is an option in the West this year when you consider that Denver, LAC, Dallas and Memphis are starting off the season with the internal belief they can make the playoffs. |
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PRLakeShow
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| Now we got people thinking Randle got 18 mill per? Geez LG. |
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Aike
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:14 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Aike wrote: | | RowellGboy7 wrote: |
You can’t be serious with your “arguments”. How quickly you make the most money totally matters. $20M guaranteed for 1 year of work outclasses $18M over 2 years no matter how you cut it.
You’re only arguing for the guaranteed portion, but you’ll quickly realize how ridiculous it sounds the more years you add it takes to make the $18M. What if it takes 10 years? 50 years? It absolutely matters. |
OK, I’ll try again.
Randle has an opt-out next summer, so there is a good chance he will make MORE than $18 million in 2 years. Could also have more years tacked on next summer.
The Bulls have an option in year 2, so there is a good chance Jabari makes LESS than $40 million over 2 years.
This Realllllly is not that complicated.
Worst case scenario, Parker makes $20 mil and Randle makes $18 mil. If that’s the way it goes down, then neither will care 10 years from now whether it took 1 or 2 years to make that money.
Best case scenario? We don’t know that yet. |
Yeah, it's really not that complicated.
Here's the simplest way to break it down.
If the Pelicans had given Randle the option of taking one of 2 offers, which would he choose?
1) 2 yrs $18 mil w/ player option for year 2
2) 2 yrs $40 mil w/ team option for year 2
Same question for Parker and the Bulls. If the Bulls gave Parker the same 2 offers, which would he choose?
This is as simplified as it can get. |
Does Randle see himself as a Pelican long term? Does he believe the Pelicans feel the same? If so, he takes number 2.
Does Randle value the opt out year because he believes there’s another team out there who is a better fit who will give him $80 million next summer? Then he chooses 1. |
That's not answering the question at all.
In your opinion, which do you think Randle would choose? Same question for Parker.
Or how about, if you were Randle, which would you choose. And if you were Parker, which would you choose. |
Sure it is. Randle would choose the most money he could get with an opt out. Which he did. |
So what's your answer then?
That Randle prefers 2 yrs $18 mil w/ the player option over 2 yrs $40 mil w/ the team option? |
I think he probably does, because he’s betting on himself in a better free agent market next summer. It’s a false premise, of course, because the Pelicans only had $9 million to offer.
We know he valued the opportunity to play beside AD and I’m sure he feels that will benefit him next summer. Does he see himself with the Pelicans long term? How about, does he see AD with the Pelicans long term?
I appreciate what you’re trying to do, but the truth is that these decisions are more complex than you’re trying to paint them to be. Knowing what I know, I think Randle would choose option 1. If it were actually a choice between the two. Which it wasn’t. But what I know is drastically less than what Randle and his agent know. |
And what about Parker? What would Parker choose?
Also, regarding the bolded: didn't you say that both deals can be broken down into comparing the guaranteed money and everything else is just window dressing?
So, that's what I'm asking you. After you've broken it down, which would you prefer? Now, you're arguing about the "window dressing" |
That’s why the window dressing is there. Some people prefer blinds. Others prefer drapes. Present a buyer with 2 houses of equal or near equal value and he will choose the one that has the features he values. A different buyer may choose the other house for his own reasons.
Neither is right or wrong, necessarily. Maybe one buyer thinks property values will rise in coming years in one area. Maybe the other wants to move into his old neighborhood or be closer to work and doesn’t care as much about appreciation.
Obviously $20 million > $18 million. What is an opt out worth to you vs. the team holding your option? We could calculate a perceived value. I may come up with a different value than you do. Randle and his agent may come up with a third value. And they have inside information. So maybe Randle sees an arbitrage situation that you can’t see.
Or maybe Randle bets on himself and is wrong. Or maybe he gets unlucky. |
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PRLakeShow
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| MJST thinking Randle got 18 mill per is equivalent to IG thinking Frye got 24 mill. |
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adkindo
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Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 40345
Location: Dirty South
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | LakerDYnasty72 wrote: | | justsomelakerfan wrote: | | Is this team a LeBron injury away from missing the playoffs? I kinda think so. Like they'll be better than people expect if they're healthy, but if LeBron misses a significant portion of time I could see it going south. Still kinda wish we traded for a second option |
The brain trust of the Lakers has been making some very deft choices. It's resulted in both a great young nucleus, and a bona fide superstar attracted enough to join them.
They know we need a bit more. Trust the process. It's working so far. |
I'm not souring on the process - just wishing we had a second option if LeBron misses time. Just about every team in the west has improved. As have the Lakers but the gap closes fast it LeBron's out |
counting on Ingram to grow into that top level type option more this season....Kuzma, KCP and Hart to take a step as supplementary scorers....and Ball to be healthy. |
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adkindo
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Location: Dirty South
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| Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:17 am Post subject: |
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| trim the quote trees....a couple posts taking up entire page |
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