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Lonzo's Ball shooting: A issue of mechanics/focus/both?
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Lonzo-Lite
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:00 pm Post subject:

Nash Vegas wrote:

His player comparison says Jason Kidd, who also couldn't shoot earlier in his career.

He was being advertised in the draft as a 3-pt shooting Jason Kidd though.
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epak
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:05 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

fusuyballer wrote:

tox wrote:

Quote:

Lonzo had a high fg percentage in college, but I am not sure how many of his shots were mid range jumpers. One of the flaws of his form is that it negates (or makes it really hard to shoot) the mid-range shot. That shot is probably the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk.

If by "the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk" you mean "the worst shot in basketball" then yeah

Ok, I cannot let you get a way with this, even by Lakerground standards. How is the mid-range jump shot the worst shot in basketball? Outside of a layup or dunk, what shot is consistently better than the mid -range jumper? Ever heard of Kobe, Jordan, Karl Malone, Dirk, etc? These are some of the greatest scorers of alltime because of it.

Outside of the layup or dunk (i.e shaq, hakeem (did a little both), all you have left is the 3 point shot and mid-range. Tony Parker made a career of attacking the basket and hitting mid range shots.

Think about it like this. A league average three-point shooter at 35% has an expected value of 1.05 points per shot (3 x .35). If a shooter hit 50% of mid-range jumpers (an incredibly high percentage), the expected value is only 1 point per shot (2 x .50). A three-pointer is a far superior shot than a mid-range jumper. It's not an issue of understanding basketball, it's an issue of understanding math.

this only holds true if we are talking about a player that shoots near league average from 3, and is a good mid-range shooter. There are guys in the league that the mid-range shot is a superior shot.

True the math is never wrong.
But the math ignores circumstance and individual talent.
Perhaps the statement should be, over the years, stats have shown that a mid range shot has a less point per shot value than a 3.

Adkindo, do you have a player in mind? I was thinking about Derozan, but his midrange % last year was near 45% (.44 x 2 = .88).

.88 / 3 (pointer) = .29% If he shot at least 29% from 3 (which he shot 33% last year), the 3 was still more valuable per shot. But again, that math ignores his play style. But the statement of value per shot still holds true.

note: he shot 27% from 3 the year before, but he also shot only 39% from midrange.

Last edited by epak on Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:12 pm; edited 4 times in total

LakerMindLA
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:09 pm Post subject:

I am more concerned with his shots close to the rim. Unless wide open, i seems most of his layup attempts are blocked or missed badly.

levon
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:19 pm Post subject:

LakerMindLA wrote:

I am more concerned with his shots close to the rim.

Unless wide open, i seems most of his layup attempts are blocked or missed badly.

This. He needs to be a better attacker/finisher to get him confident for his shots. Hopefully he'll be like Ingram the second half of the year and attack with more ferocity.

AC Green's V-Card
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:35 pm Post subject:

adkindo wrote:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

fusuyballer wrote:

tox wrote:

Quote:

If by "the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk" you mean "the worst shot in basketball" then yeah

this only holds true if we are talking about a player that shoots near league average from 3, and is a good mid-range shooter. There are guys in the league that the mid-range shot is a superior shot.

There will always be exceptions, but we're talking about the overall effectiveness of an individual shot: mid-range vs. 3-point shot. The league average for a mid-range shot is 40%. The league average of a 3-point shot is 35%. That's an expected value of 0.8 vs. 1.05 points. There's a reason the league is trending toward spacing and threes like never before. The math is settled on the issue.

epak
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:37 pm Post subject:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

adkindo wrote:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

fusuyballer wrote:

tox wrote:

Quote:

If by "the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk" you mean "the worst shot in basketball" then yeah

this only holds true if we are talking about a player that shoots near league average from 3, and is a good mid-range shooter. There are guys in the league that the mid-range shot is a superior shot.

I thought it was due to lack of fundamentals and AAU?

But yep, that's been the trend of offense, whether people like it or not.

KAJtheGOAT
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:02 pm Post subject:

“Confidence”

KBH
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:06 pm Post subject:

activeverb wrote:

Everyone knew he had terrible mechanics and a bad shooting form that would eventually need to change if he were to become even a mediocre NBA shooter.

He shoots from a low point and across his body. It worked OK in college, because he mostly jacked off quick shots to catch the defense off guard. Defenders are better and quicker in the NBA so he can't get away with it.

Heh heh

Wilkes52
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:35 pm Post subject:

Probably not a matter of mechanics or focus. The falloff in his conversion rate since college probably stems from two things. First, he's probably been held out of practice while getting over his ankle sprain, so the recent lack of adequate practice hurts his timing, consistency. Second, the recent physical hounding of him by a string of NBA quality defenders, compared to his pre-NBA training regimen and experience, no doubt has affected his thought process a bit too. I say we give him time to see how these factors dissipate - or persist. _________________ “These GOAT discussions are fun distractions while sitting around waiting for the pizza to be served.” Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

PerchiN
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:39 pm Post subject:

levon wrote:

LakerMindLA wrote:

I am more concerned with his shots close to the rim.

Unless wide open, i seems most of his layup attempts are blocked or missed badly.

This. He needs to be a better attacker/finisher to get him confident for his shots. Hopefully he'll be like Ingram the second half of the year and attack with more ferocity.

Totally agree...Not worried about his 3 point shot. I would be concerned if he couldn't get it off, but he's just missing wide open ones which will eventually go down once he takes thousands of jumpers over the course of his career. He does need to increase his strength and finish stronger/better at the rim.

I feel like he needs to be more aggressive off the PnR. In the Suns game he was attacking the basket coming off screens...seems like he's been a little passive looking to make a pocket pass to the big, and I think defenses are starting to read that as well.

Wilkes52
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:47 pm Post subject:

PerchiN wrote:

levon wrote:

LakerMindLA wrote:

I am more concerned with his shots close to the rim.

Unless wide open, i seems most of his layup attempts are blocked or missed badly.

This. He needs to be a better attacker/finisher to get him confident for his shots. Hopefully he'll be like Ingram the second half of the year and attack with more ferocity.

I'm unconvinced this is the route required for improvement in Lonzo's shot conversion rates. He's a little loose with the ball getting underway from a standstill. Driving is not likely to be something he can improve significantly in short order.

Now, making use of opportunities of his playing off the ball for catch-n-shoot situations and catches for on-the-move finishes (Jamaal-Wilkes territory), now that's where there's gold to be mined right away.
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splashmtn
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:52 pm Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:

He didn't shoot from the left side as a sophomore in HS. More directly in front of his forehead.

and i forgot to add. its also the ball for him. the ball does matter for certain guys when it comes to shooting.

ThreePointBomber
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:19 pm Post subject:

Anyone noticed that Lonzo hesitated a lot when shooting? I think he will be a knockdown shooter as he gets more comfortable during the season. _________________ The most important shot in basketball. Last edited by ThreePointBomber on Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

epak
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:22 pm Post subject:

splashmtn wrote:

Mike@LG wrote:

He didn't shoot from the left side as a sophomore in HS. More directly in front of his forehead.

and i forgot to add. its also the ball for him. the ball does matter for certain guys when it comes to shooting.

Is it Spalding vs Wilson?

ringfinger
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:36 pm Post subject:

I think we need to wait until Lonzo looks more comfortable out there before we judge his shooting. The one concerning thing is that he doesnt seem to have any go to move. Like, something he can rely on when the 3 ball isnt going.

ryan_c
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 6:57 pm Post subject:

Jordan-esque wrote:

Chris Webber said that Lonzo's shot reminded him of Kevin Martin who also had an awkward looking shot, but was one of the better NBA shooters.

Seems more like confidence right now. Probably just me or does it look like Lonzo hesitates or has been 2nd guessing himself whenever he takes a 3-point shot?

Also when the Lakers need to hit clutch free throws, it's Lonzo who comes out to do the inbound pass rather than be the one to be fouled to shoot. But it's also because he's our best passer, but would be nice to see him step up to shoot as well.

kevin martin has a better shooting mechanics.

The Lebrons
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:12 pm Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

I think we need to wait until Lonzo looks more comfortable out there before we judge his shooting.

The one concerning thing is that he doesnt seem to have any go to move. Like, something he can rely on when the 3 ball isnt going.

His go-to move in college was step-back 3 gong back to his left. Don't know if he's pulled it out yet.

ringfinger
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:53 pm Post subject:

The Lebrons wrote:

ringfinger wrote:

His go-to move in college was step-back 3 gong back to his left. Don't know if he's pulled it out yet.

Ok but I'm referring to something that he can rely on, on a fairly consistent basis. A high percentage shot. Thats not high percentage.

Like the DLo elbow jumper. Clarkson can penetrate and do the teardropper. I'm not worried about Lonzos 3s for some reason.

activeverb
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:07 pm Post subject:

PerchiN wrote:

levon wrote:

LakerMindLA wrote:

I am more concerned with his shots close to the rim.

Unless wide open, i seems most of his layup attempts are blocked or missed badly.

This. He needs to be a better attacker/finisher to get him confident for his shots. Hopefully he'll be like Ingram the second half of the year and attack with more ferocity.

The flaws you're pointing out were all there in college too. In college, his strength was court vision, clever passing in transition, and hoisting up quick threes in transition. Even in college he wasn't able to get into the paint off the dribble.

The Suns defense was so porous he was able to get a lot of uncontested trips to the basket; that's not going to happen against most teams. Basically, if there is a chance of contact, he tends to give up the ball rather than take it to the rim.

The parts of Ball's game that he does well, he does really well. But he also has some significant holes in his game that he needs to work on, and it might take a couple of years.

I think he's going to be a good player; the jury's still out whether he'll become a star.

Last edited by activeverb on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:15 pm; edited 2 times in total

KB824MJ
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:11 pm Post subject:

I'm not worried about his shot. He can get it off. He is hesitating for some reason, not sure if it is confidence or maybe they tweaked his shot and he's trying to change it and thinks about it? Don't know but I think they are very close each and every time where it might go in.

DShotMaker1824
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Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:30 pm Post subject:

*An issue _________________ "Through the legs to the left, through the legs to the right, we don't run them Laker plays, we just Kobe fadeaway..."

kobeandgary
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Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:40 am Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:

The issue is he is 19.

Shooting isn't about age, unless he is absolutely killing it in warmups and just missing in the game. Definitely more factors into it than just being a certain age.

tox
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Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:44 am Post subject:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

fusuyballer wrote:

tox wrote:

Quote:

If by "the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk" you mean "the worst shot in basketball" then yeah

KeepItRealOrElse
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Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:51 am Post subject:

nshid wrote:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:

A lot of rookies shoot poorly from 3. I think he's testing things out, think he tried putting more arc on the ball so his rattling out misses stop, but his form isn't conducive with more arc (at least right now) , the way it comes out , it's trajectory is matter of fact when it goes in..
He should get back to shooting like the PHX game more often. He misses midrange pull-ups to the right in hords in pre-game, probably never be able to make those

It did look like Lonzo was trying to put more arch on the ball, specifically more spin. Though I see nothing wrong with him attempting "normal shots", as long as he is not practicing these shots during the game. Since he's a rookie, this would be the best time to make shooting changes but:

A) Is he open to changing his shooting form?
B) Is he making more shots using the prescribed form?
C) Will Kobe have time to work with Lonzo on his shooting?

Saw him make a 3 in a drill, no swish, then try to adjust the next one to make it a swish, and he missed with Moreno arc. That's what a lot of trainers advocate..
But I don't think that Lonzo's odd release and subsequent trajectory can be perfect , probably can't be a 40% 3pt guy who swishes at will in practice - that's fine .. Just shoot your trajectory the only way you can with the odd way it comes out

fusuyballer
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Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:05 pm Post subject:

tox wrote:

AC Green's V-Card wrote:

fusuyballer wrote:

tox wrote:

Quote:

If by "the best shot in basketball outside of the layup or dunk" you mean "the worst shot in basketball" then yeah

Actually, statistics lie and I dont even feel like getting into the nitty gritty of this argument. There are other values that the mid-range brings to the game that cannot be measured in stats alone. Like the ability to draw double teams from the mid-range or high post...etc. I dont have the time or will to go over all of them, especially when people try to use stats to sum up entire arguments about basketball. What I will say is, the league average has nothing to do with this argument because I am talking about specific players, not the general rule. And, these specific players happen to be players who made their careers out of hitting mid-range shots and getting to the rim, and they are some of the best to ever do it because of this fact.

Some of the best players to ever play this game became great by shooting mid range shots and getting to the rim. Bringing some pointless argument about what most guys shoot in the NBA on average from the three versus the two, has nothing to do with this argument. If your a pure shooter like Steph Curry or Thompson, I could accept your argument for taking more 3's than twos. However, most teams dont have a roster filled with shooters like Curry and Thompson. Furthermore, teams like this typically do not win in the end because they tend to settle for low percentage shots too much when it matters. This is the primary reason that the Warriors struggled so much versus Cleveland when they went up 3-1 and couldn't close them out...Lebron and Kyrie were getting high percentage jumpers and all the way to the rim while Curry and Thompson were taking low percentage 3's once Cleveland applied better defense. If it wasn't for them adding a great talent like Durant, they probably would not have beat a healthy Cleveland team last year. Durant gave them a scorer who could penetrate, get to the ft, and hit in the mid-range. All of these factors made the warrior's team that much better and freed the other shooters even more.

My overall point is, the best teams do not typically win from the 3 point line, they win because they get in the paint and score high percentage buckets at a greater rate than the other team. Only truly great 3 point shooting teams can typically negate this fact, but there's only a few great ones.

As for the players, I would easily argue that Russell Westbrook should not be taking a lot of threes because he plays way too fast which leads to many poor shots from deep. He is better off attacking the basket and mastering the mid-range, imo. I could argue that Michael Jordan doesnt become Michael Jordan by jacking 3's up all game but rather perfecting the mid-range shot and developing a back to the basket game. If Michael Jordan would have used your logic, he would have patterned his game after Reggie Miller and that would have been a horrible mistake for HIM. Now, Reggie Miller taking more 3's than 2's, that makes sense.

Now, I will say this about Lonzo Ball. His 3 point shot (with his current form) is probably easier for him to get off and shoot at this point in his young career. Also, with his current form, I could even see him developing that shot at a 37-40% rate. Jason Kidd did that to a degree but Jason developed a decent mid range jumper along the way and was a better finisher at this point..

My point is, Lonzo doesn't have the natural ball handling excellence of a Jason Kidd. He doesn't have the ball speed or the quick feet and hands. He doesn't have the same quickness/nimbleness to get into the lane and finish. Lonzo Ball is a Jason Kidd lite who is going to have to learn ways to supplement his deficiencies in talent through hard work by development more skill.

The first thing Kobe Bryant asked Lonzo Ball when he met him backstage at ESPN was, do you have a post game? What a profound question but its very important and the reason why is below.

4 Things I think Lonzo is going to have to do to make up for his deficiencies in (footspeed, ball handling ability, shooting form)

1. Develop a Mid-Range Shot by tweaking his form or "High" Percentage 3 point shot and keep or tweak his form. (might be able to keep form and do both, but my gut tells me he will tweak it)

2.Develop a Post Game ala Shaun Livingston...(Ball should have advantages every night). I would like him to have a better post game than Shaun and get to the point where he can demand a double team against smaller guards. Matter of fact, he should get to the point where the other team refuses to guard him with a smaller guard, and that would negate the speed advantage that most smaller pgs will have over him in the NBA. He has to punish smaller guys like John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, etc, in the post. He has to become really good at this to reach his potential.

3. He has to get better at finishing at the basket. He has to get mentally and physically stronger so he is more of a threat at finishing at the basket or getting to the free throw line.

4. His defense has to get better. He'll probably never have hands or feet quickness as Jason Kidd. However, he has the mind and the length to learn angles and force smaller guards to shoot over him and take bad angles to the the rim. He has to develop a great attitude toward defense ala Jason Kidd.

These are the four things I believe Lonzo Ball will have to do to maximize his ability in the NBA and be better than avg, and dare i say it, a great player?

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