Team Stats & Rankings (Through First 18 Games - 11/21/2017)
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DrDent
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:03 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
^In theory, a faster pace should get you more open 3pters. However, once you have them, I'm not sure how pace could suddenly make you capable of hitting them. I'd be curious to know how many of our 3s are open 3pters, and where we rank in the league in %s of hitting open 3s v. contested 3s.


Just a thought: top 5 in pace includes brooklyn, Phoenix, and the lakers

Bottom 5 includes San Antonio, Memphis and Milwaukee

The Celtics are 20th

Is pace really that important? I mean, aside from the desire to play at the Warriors pace...
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:21 am    Post subject:

Playing at a higher pace should get you better and more efficient looks by, hopefully, creating offensive possessions before the defense is set. However, if you're going to play a fast pace, you have to be able to do so without compromising your defense. That means you better have the legs and the athletes that are not only capable of playing fast, but also capable of consistently playing at that pace while getting back on D to prevent transition opportunities. A team that goes big (which San Antonio and, Memphis are), making no mention of an older team that does so, can't afford to play fast and are left with no option but to go slow. Milwaukee could play fast and I'm not sure why they don't. If anything, I think they'd be a better team if they did.

Not many teams have the ability to play at a fast pace while also maintaining their defense. In fact, this is one of Golden State's recipes for success - they can and they can do it better than almost anyone. The old Phoenix Suns, believe it or not, actually played that same model. They were very underrated defensively because they played in a time where people just started taking notice of pace when thinking about defensive efficiency.

So, given the above, I think everyone should really just play to their strengths. All things equal, everyone should want to play at a faster pace. However, if you have a really strong half court offense, but don't have the legs to play fast... yes, slow it down. If you have a really strong half court offense, and other teams do not and you have trouble with transition D,... yes, slow it down. If you have a terrible half court offense and can play well defending transition opportunities, then... yes, speed it up.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:20 am    Post subject:

So we need someone to teach those kids how to make freethrows and threes while they not forget the defense...

Anyone on here got some spare time?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:30 am    Post subject:

The quick inspection of record (7-10) and conference rank (T-10) reveals the team is just about tracing the predicted season arc many of us figured for them. At this win pace, our Lakers stand to run just out of reach of a playoff berth, at around 34 wins.

On the positive note:

- the team seems to have huge room for improvement on the offensive end of the court for several key players, notably Lonzo, Ingram and KCP.

- Nance's injury cleared the PT slate for Kuzma's promotion and usage, either revealing or confirming the rookie's readiness for NBA play.

- Randle's play has demonstrated the type of uptick in activity and efficiency that many fans have been salivating to see from him.

Overall, the team is on pace for what I foresaw from them, even if at moments it feels that the struggles of Ball and Ingram obscures vision of the big picture.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:03 am    Post subject:

As many have already stated, if the Lakers could shoot league average at the 3 point and free throw line, we'd be talking playoffs without having to throw "/sarcasm" somewhere in the post. Turnovers are still a problem but we're decent in blocks and rebounding and our defense is very good so far.

Our best 3 point shooter right now is Jordan Clarkson, shooting 36.0% from 3.

That's the same percentage the Cleveland Cavaliers are averaging as a team. They are number 15 in the NBA in 3 point shooting.

Yes, our best 3 point shooter is the only one who would not lower the average on an average team. Although he wouldn't raise it either.

3 point shooting:

Kuzma 33.8% on 4 attempts/game. Not league average but just good enough to make teams guard him on the perimeter. Opens up other options.
Lopez 34.2% on 4.3 attempts. Same as above.
Clarkson 36.0% on 2.9 attempts. Fifth on the team in volume for our only average 3 pt shooter.
Ingram 30.8% on 1.5 attempts. Low volume, he's not what's killing our avg.

Aaand then we have:

KCP 30.9% on 5.4 attempts. Damn. 5.4 attempts, you're killing me smalls.
Lonzo 22.8% on 4.6 attempts. Double Damn.

KCP and Lonzo combined: 2.8 for 10 from 3. Neither one of these players were bad shooters from outside last year. In fact, Lonzo was dangerous from outside at UCLA.

Do the Lakers have a shooting coach?

On the flip side - huge kudos to the defense so far.

And for 3 pt shooting just gotta remember it's only November.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:45 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
^In theory, a faster pace should get you more open 3pters. However, once you have them, I'm not sure how pace could suddenly make you capable of hitting them. I'd be curious to know how many of our 3s are open 3pters, and where we rank in the league in %s of hitting open 3s v. contested 3s.


Got you covered buddy.

Lakers are 26th in the league in 3PT FGA on attempts (5th fewest) that are wide open (with no defender within 6 feet).

On wide open 3pters attempted, we are second last at 33% shooting.

Not sure if pace correlates to wide open 3pters. I think it depends. If you're GSW with shooters galore, you go untraditional and fire on a break from there. Then again, GSW doesn't take that many wide open 3s shockingly enough (just 0.4 more than us per game). But if you're a team like Phoenix with few 3pt shooters outside of Devin Booker, then you don't do that as much which is why despite being high in pace they are like us. 4th fewest open 3s and 3rd worst percentage.

All the data is here:
https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-closest-defender/?sort=FG3A&dir=1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CloseDefDistRange=6%2B%20Feet%20-%20Wide%20Open
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LakerSanity
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:12 am    Post subject:

We take less 3s in general because it seems we avoid them. I'd like to know if our % of open 3s is higher or lower than league average, i.e. taking into account that we take less 3s, do we take more wide open 3s than the average team in that context?

Looking at the stats, it looks like we're about league average there just eyeballing it. In other words, as a % of the 3s we take, we take around the same wide open ones as an average team from what I can tell. However, it seems that, for most teams, about 50% of their 3s are wide open. We fall into that range as well without a real significant distinction. I suppose it really just depends on the players/coaches and team by team shot selection. I don't see a correlation to the stats between pace and wide open 3s (or the # of 3s taken in general).

And, even 33% on open 3s? That means even if we only shot wide open 3s, we'd still be the worst in the league. However, that also means that the Kings, Blazers, Suns and Knicks shoot better on non-wide open 3s than wide-open 3s. Strange.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
We take less 3s in general because it seems we avoid them. I'd like to know if our % of open 3s is higher or lower than league average, i.e. taking into account that we take less 3s, do we take more wide open 3s than the average team in that context?

Looking at the stats, it looks like we're about league average there just eyeballing it. In other words, as a % of the 3s we take, we take around the same wide open ones as an average team from what I can tell. However, it seems that, for most teams, about 50% of their 3s are wide open. We fall into that range as well without a real significant distinction. I suppose it really just depends on the players/coaches and team by team shot selection. I don't see a correlation to the stats between pace and wide open 3s (or the # of 3s taken in general).

And, even 33% on open 3s? That means even if we only shot wide open 3s, we'd still be the worst in the league. However, that also means that the Kings, Blazers, Suns and Knicks shoot better on non-wide open 3s than wide-open 3s. Strange.


Here's the percentage of wide open 3s, relative to the total number of 3s taken.

And yeah, pace is not a factor. It seems like playing style is. Inside-out teams have the highest percentage of wide open 3s relative to total 3s.

If you would have told me GSW takes the fewest percentage of wide open 3s, I would have said you'd lost it. But, there it is. But it makes sense. They don't play inside out. They play outside in.

TEAM % Wide Open
New Orleans Pelicans 66.11%
Milwaukee Bucks 62.85%
Utah Jazz 62.50%
San Antonio Spurs 61.29%
Memphis Grizzlies 61.11%
Atlanta Hawks 59.27%
Sacramento Kings 58.69%
Orlando Magic 56.33%
Minnesota Timberwolves 56.09%
Indiana Pacers 55.24%
Philadelphia 76ers 55.15%
Chicago Bulls 54.46%
Washington Wizards 53.26%
Boston Celtics 53.25%
Dallas Mavericks 52.84%
Charlotte Hornets 52.27%
Toronto Raptors 51.91%
Los Angeles Lakers 51.61%
Detroit Pistons 51.21%
Miami Heat 50.94%
Oklahoma City Thunder 50.16%
Phoenix Suns 48.48%
Denver Nuggets 48.44%
Brooklyn Nets 48.38%
Cleveland Cavaliers 47.76%
Portland Trail Blazers 46.89%
LA Clippers 46.82%
Houston Rockets 45.50%
New York Knicks 44.13%
Golden State Warriors 42.17%
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject:

Honestly, what this all tells me is that what I find instinctually to be true is true - that 3pt shooting is less about the look you get, and more about a combination of having a consistent stroke and confidence.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:19 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Honestly, what this all tells me is that what I find instinctually to be true is true - that 3pt shooting is less about the look you get, and more about a combination of having a consistent stroke and confidence.


If it's interesting, because I have no motivation at work today with Thanksgiving on the horizon ... I'll chart Pct of Wide Open 3s against 3pt shooting percentage.

In theory, you would think more wide open 3s = higher percentages but now seeing this, that may not be the case at all given where GSW is listed.

If there is no correlation, then, all this time we've been complaining about dribble penetration and it's been for naught. Haha.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:31 am    Post subject:

Yup, no correlation at all with a correlation coefficient of -0.03 which is effectively none.

Here's the chart showing share of wide open 3s (to total 3s) against 3pt shooting percentage. There is no correlation showing better shooting percentages if you "create" more wide open 3s for your team.

In fact, if you squint (or just look at the correlation coefficient, haha) you can see an almost slight negative correlation there.

https://i.imgur.com/mhJ3tcu.png
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Yup, no correlation at all with a correlation coefficient of -0.03 which is effectively none.

Here's the chart showing share of wide open 3s (to total 3s) against 3pt shooting percentage. There is no correlation showing better shooting percentages if you "create" more wide open 3s for your team.

In fact, if you squint (or just look at the correlation coefficient, haha) you can see an almost slight negative correlation there.

https://i.imgur.com/mhJ3tcu.png


Which teams are wide open for a reason...
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:14 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Yup, no correlation at all with a correlation coefficient of -0.03 which is effectively none.

Here's the chart showing share of wide open 3s (to total 3s) against 3pt shooting percentage. There is no correlation showing better shooting percentages if you "create" more wide open 3s for your team.

In fact, if you squint (or just look at the correlation coefficient, haha) you can see an almost slight negative correlation there.

https://i.imgur.com/mhJ3tcu.png


Which teams are wide open for a reason...

And which teams have the shooters to take and make more contested threes...so they do?
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Yup, no correlation at all with a correlation coefficient of -0.03 which is effectively none.

Here's the chart showing share of wide open 3s (to total 3s) against 3pt shooting percentage. There is no correlation showing better shooting percentages if you "create" more wide open 3s for your team.

In fact, if you squint (or just look at the correlation coefficient, haha) you can see an almost slight negative correlation there.

https://i.imgur.com/mhJ3tcu.png


Which teams are wide open for a reason...


I'm not sure what that question means but if you look at the team on the left side of that chart, most of them run their offense through the interior. Inside out.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Yup, no correlation at all with a correlation coefficient of -0.03 which is effectively none.

Here's the chart showing share of wide open 3s (to total 3s) against 3pt shooting percentage. There is no correlation showing better shooting percentages if you "create" more wide open 3s for your team.

In fact, if you squint (or just look at the correlation coefficient, haha) you can see an almost slight negative correlation there.

https://i.imgur.com/mhJ3tcu.png


Which teams are wide open for a reason...


I'm not sure what that question means but if you look at the team on the left side of that chart, most of them run their offense through the interior. Inside out.


It means you bust your ass to close out against the Warriors and don't against most of these Lakers. Given how the lackluster in general the ball movement has been I suspect we're not really "creating" these wide open opportunities rather than teams are just willingly giving them.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:49 pm    Post subject:

But you are also comparing wide open 3s to all non-wide open 3s. Maybe there is a 3 sweet spot, i.e. a partially open 3?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:02 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
But you are also comparing wide open 3s to all non-wide open 3s. Maybe there is a 3 sweet spot, i.e. a partially open 3?


It exists. I'll pull that after I finish lunch. Haha.

And actually, I'm comparing wide open 3s to all 3s shooting. If being wide open correlates to higher percentages but we have seen that is not the case.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
As many have already stated, if the Lakers could shoot league average at the 3 point and free throw line, we'd be talking playoffs without having to throw "/sarcasm" somewhere in the post. Turnovers are still a problem but we're decent in blocks and rebounding and our defense is very good so far.

Our best 3 point shooter right now is Jordan Clarkson, shooting 36.0% from 3.

That's the same percentage the Cleveland Cavaliers are averaging as a team. They are number 15 in the NBA in 3 point shooting.

Yes, our best 3 point shooter is the only one who would not lower the average on an average team. Although he wouldn't raise it either.

3 point shooting:

Kuzma 33.8% on 4 attempts/game. Not league average but just good enough to make teams guard him on the perimeter. Opens up other options.
Lopez 34.2% on 4.3 attempts. Same as above.
Clarkson 36.0% on 2.9 attempts. Fifth on the team in volume for our only average 3 pt shooter.
Ingram 30.8% on 1.5 attempts. Low volume, he's not what's killing our avg.

Aaand then we have:

KCP 30.9% on 5.4 attempts. Damn. 5.4 attempts, you're killing me smalls.
Lonzo 22.8% on 4.6 attempts. Double Damn.

KCP and Lonzo combined: 2.8 for 10 from 3. Neither one of these players were bad shooters from outside last year. In fact, Lonzo was dangerous from outside at UCLA.

Do the Lakers have a shooting coach?

On the flip side - huge kudos to the defense so far.

And for 3 pt shooting just gotta remember it's only November.


The only positive about the 3 point shooting is that it's proving to be contagious. Other teams that shoot well from 3 come to LA and forget how to shoot.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:32 pm    Post subject:

I don't really need advanced stats...the Lakers are not a good 3pt shooting team. They are streaky and when on usually win but there isn't a shooter you can trust on this team. I hope they address that in the off season.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:34 pm    Post subject:

Just curious. Where are the thresholds for 3pt shooting and what is "good" coming from? Asking because I would expect 33% shooting from deep to be totally acceptable though not outstanding.

No?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject:

4th best defense is insane.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:16 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Honestly, what this all tells me is that what I find instinctually to be true is true - that 3pt shooting is less about the look you get, and more about a combination of having a consistent stroke and confidence.


I think back to the success at UCLA that Bryce Alford experienced in his senior year when he played with Lonzo and TJ Leaf. It runs against that "confidence factor" intuitively to some extent. Bryce had great confidence every year at UCLA but when paired with Lonzo's special ability to find him for run outs to BA's preferred three point spots, and to be surrounded by a lot of sharpshooting help, well, the numbers improved for Bryce enormously. His stroke never changed really. The duties and opportunities, they changed.

The "passing for threes" effect might not transfer to the NBA game very strongly though, admittedly ...
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject:

70sdude wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Honestly, what this all tells me is that what I find instinctually to be true is true - that 3pt shooting is less about the look you get, and more about a combination of having a consistent stroke and confidence.


I think back to the success at UCLA that Bryce Alford experienced in his senior year when he played with Lonzo and TJ Leaf. It runs against that "confidence factor" intuitively to some extent. Bryce had great confidence every year at UCLA but when paired with Lonzo's special ability to find him for run outs to BA's preferred three point spots, and to be surrounded by a lot of sharpshooting help, well, the numbers improved for Bryce enormously. His stroke never changed really. The duties and opportunities, they changed.

The "passing for threes" effect might not transfer to the NBA game very strongly though, admittedly ...


This is true. Bryce, and this is no exaggeration, was one of the worst shooters in UCLA history prior to Lonzo being paired with him in the backcourt. His percentages went way up. I've been watching UCLA basketball for 30 years and wanted to strangle Bryce for 3 of them. Even now, you'll notice that many times, the guys aren't catching and shooting when Lonzo hits them with a pass behind the arc. They're still trying to do something with the ball upon receipt. I wonder if they'd be more successful on the catch and shoot over time than not.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:18 pm    Post subject:

FanOfFour wrote:
70sdude wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Honestly, what this all tells me is that what I find instinctually to be true is true - that 3pt shooting is less about the look you get, and more about a combination of having a consistent stroke and confidence.


I think back to the success at UCLA that Bryce Alford experienced in his senior year when he played with Lonzo and TJ Leaf. It runs against that "confidence factor" intuitively to some extent. Bryce had great confidence every year at UCLA but when paired with Lonzo's special ability to find him for run outs to BA's preferred three point spots, and to be surrounded by a lot of sharpshooting help, well, the numbers improved for Bryce enormously. His stroke never changed really. The duties and opportunities, they changed.

The "passing for threes" effect might not transfer to the NBA game very strongly though, admittedly ...


This is true. Bryce, and this is no exaggeration, was one of the worst shooters in UCLA history prior to Lonzo being paired with him in the backcourt. His percentages went way up. I've been watching UCLA basketball for 30 years and wanted to strangle Bryce for 3 of them. Even now, you'll notice that many times, the guys aren't catching and shooting when Lonzo hits them with a pass behind the arc. They're still trying to do something with the ball upon receipt. I wonder if they'd be more successful on the catch and shoot over time than not.



You mean he went from a good shooter to an elite shooter?
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:02 pm    Post subject:

RichD wrote:
I think pace is affecting the other teams 3 point percentage. And Lonzo getting after rebounds and pushing it fast is a recipe to win games


I addressed this in a post above this one. There is no relationship, at least not this season.
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