2018 Dodgers Thread

LonzoLegend2 · Starting Rotation Joined: 05 Aug 2017 Posts: 680

When's Trout a FA? Let's bring him to LA's true team. Don't prefer Harper due to the already left hand heavy lineup we have and Dongcarlo can opt out in 3 years.

lakersken80 · Retired Number Joined: 12 Aug 2009 Posts: 38783

oasisdude77 · Star Player Joined: 02 Oct 2007 Posts: 2737

Gatekeeper · Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:48 pm Post subject:

Marlins would probably ask for Verdugo in a trade for Stanton.
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ChickenStu · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:25 am Post subject:

Long post here, so bear with me...

I'm really wary of assuming all of Stanton's $295MM contract. It just really tends to look absolutely stunningly awful after a few seasons. That said, there is little doubt that he would help the team immensely over the next few seasons if he stays reasonably healthy, although we should note that he's missed decent portions of seasons in the past. The Dodgers are as equipped as any team to take on what could turn into bad money, though, so maybe they might actually consider getting him. However, I think they would only do so if it was on their terms. For example, perhaps they would assume the entire contract, but only if the players that the Marlins got back were middling ones. Or, perhaps the Dodgers would give up some decent talent, but only if the Marlins paid down a significant portion of the remaining money. I also wonder if management would consider this as a preemptive strike to a pursuit of Bryce Harper after next season, because, of course, there is no guarantee whatsoever that they could land Harper even if they wanted him badly.

If Stanton is hell-bent on joining the Dodgers and if the Dodgers have genuine interest in acquiring him, it's not like the Marlins are going to have a ton of leverage here. Yeah, they could just hold onto Stanton, but it's my deep belief that they are dead-set on moving that contract, and that the new regime there thinks that it's essential to do so. The White Sox feigned that they didn't have to trade Chris Sale this past offseason, but I always thought that there was no way that they could let him come back into that clubhouse, and, sure enough, they moved him for the best deal that they could get. I truly believe that this is a similar case, except that this time, the player can control where he wants to go.

While Puig going there and Stanton coming here would seem logical, it would be admittedly pretty enticing to be able to trot out an outfield of Stanton-Taylor-Puig from left to right. We could end the platoon shenanigans in the outfield with that arrangement, and I'm intrigued that Puig still has another gear to reach, considering that he's still young and considering his patient approach during the postseason. I'd look to move Joc on the heels of his strong World Series showing, because his value might never be higher, with him still having 2 years left of team control and coming off a strong performance on the sport's biggest stage. Remember, if he has another bad stretch to start next season, his value goes back into the tank. And he'd just be a 4th outfielder anyway if we kept Puig and acquired Stanton. (Taylor isn't going anywhere.) We could have Toles and Kike as the 4th and 5th outfielders, and keep in mind that Bellinger can also play the outfield (and Kike can play the infield), if thinking about roster construction.

If we assumed all of the contract, as I said, I don't think we'd have to give up the absolute high-end prospects that we have, and maybe not even Puig. And perhaps the Dodgers would rather take on all of the money and keep guys like Puig/Verdugo and their high-end pitching prospects, as opposed to saving tens of millions but having to give up those types. And with Puig's contract up after 2018, we could then have Verdugo/Toles available to fill his shoes if we don't end up retaining Puig. I'll just take a shot at a theoretical trade, because if it ends up hitting, I don't mind looking like a genius LOL...

Stanton (and his entire contract) for Joc Pederson, Scott Kazmir (represents what amounts to a slight reduction of the $295MM due to Stanton, and at least helps with the 2018 payroll), Dustin May (a 6'6 right-handed pitcher that is our #15 prospect), Ross Stripling, and Yusniel Diaz. Diaz is Cuban, which would play well there, and he's the #76 overall prospect on mlb.com. He's our 5th-ranked prospect, but only our 3rd-best OF prospect, and he'd kind of be blocked if we had the MLB outfield that we would have, not to mention that we'd still have Verdugo and Jeren Kendall in this scenario.

Lineup
Taylor CF
Seager SS
Turner 3B
Stanton LF
Bellinger 1B
Puig RF
Forsythe 2B
Barnes C

That lineup 1 through 6 would be insane.

ChickenStu · Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:44 am Post subject:

Oh, and this won't be a popular opinion here, but Scherzer deserved to win the Cy Young Award over Kershaw. Wins and winning % are just about the least-valued things about a pitcher's resume nowadays, and the biggest stat where Kershaw had the edge was in ERA. But Scherzer was still 2nd in ERA and was only .2 behind, and Scherzer's FIP was better, while Kershaw's adjusted ERA+ was slightly better. But in other important peripheral categories, Scherzer had some big edges. He struck out more than 1.7 more batters per 9 innings, so it wasn't just that he had 66 more strikeouts overall due to the innings gap...he struck out significantly more batters per 9 innings, too. And while Scherzer allowed fewer hits per 9 innings and while Kershaw allowed fewer BB's per 9 innings, Scherzer had the better WHIP, which is a big category.

So you can see that, so far, Kershaw has some edges in the peripheral categories and so does Scherzer. Kershaw's best numbers are in his ERA and wins/record, but, once again, we're not being honest if we consider the wins/record stats as overly important to today's sabermetric voters. Scherzer's biggest edges, so far, are in the WHIP and K/9 categories. But here's where the decision clearly comes down to Scherzer: his WAR was 7.6, while Kershaw's was 4.6. Some of that is due to Scherzer's higher innings total--which in and of itself should give the edge to the guy that played more, if the categories seem close--but a 3 win edge in WAR is just a massive feather in Scherzer's cap here. Scherzer actually led all National League players in WAR. Not just pitchers, but all players. And just among NL pitchers, Kershaw finished 6th in WAR.

The right guy won the award.

lakersken80 · Retired Number Joined: 12 Aug 2009 Posts: 38783

Yes, I would be wary of taking on Stanton's contract. Teams that take on those huge contracts usually don't have a long term run of sustained success. They lose their financial flexibility and more often than not end up trading those players whom they sign to a lengthy max deal.
Also I'm not surprised Kershaw didn't get the Cy Young award. He spent a significant time on the DL this season. I know health plays a major factor in how these awards are handed out.

Gatekeeper · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:19 am Post subject:

Todd Frazier, anyone? Would make a decent replacent/backup to Turner and Bellinger at 1st and 3rd. He'll be.32 so a 3 year 21-27m deal would make sense for both sides.
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ribeye · Franchise Player Joined: 10 Nov 2001 Posts: 12630

DuncanIdaho · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:33 pm Post subject:

Cardinals have a formal offer in for Stanton.

I can just see it now: we decide not to trade for Dongcarlo, and the Cards beat us in the playoffs again, with Stanton leading the way.

If the Cards aren’t worried about his contract, we definitely shouldn’t be.

ChickenStu · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:41 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:44 pm Post subject:

DuncanIdaho · Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:54 pm Post subject:

32 · Retired Number Joined: 04 Nov 2009 Posts: 73063

I don't care if we aren't in the Stanton sweepstakes. Puig was phenomenal this year and will likely be better next year. I really want us to get Shohei Otani.
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DuncanIdaho · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:27 pm Post subject:

This team will never win a world series if they don't ever pull the trigger on difference maker players. Our window is open, but with Kershaw's back and our shaky rotation, there are some concerns on how big that window is.

Outside of two guys, Houston's rotation was garbage, but their bats made up for that. In my opinion, as long as we have this juiced ball, great offense is more important than ever.

I'm going to be sick to my stomach if the Giants or Cards end up with Stanton when he's all but begging us to bring him in.

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DrWolf · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:40 pm Post subject:

rwongega · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:48 pm Post subject: