Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:01 pm Post subject:
Quote:
I don't really know. Just hopeful. Lol. His sprint numbers and lane agility numbers were about the same or some even better than Randle, so I think the feet are there to work with.
What do you think? Can he get there?
That's part of the problem. One of the biggest needs/skills is post base if you want a guy to play 5. PJ Tucker can get away with it because he's immovable. Hart holds his own when he's switched onto 4s.
Wagner on 58% of his total defensive possessions, Below Average, gives up 50.8%FG, 27th percentile.
Okay, so, we just switch him onto a stretch 4 or something, right?
36th percentile, 43.8%FG, Average. "Average" is roughly considered 30%-60%.
18 possessions in Iso, which he's awesome at. But, how many face up 5s is he going to face?
I'm more excited about the 47th pick than the 25th pick, and it's not because of expectation by draft position. Wagner absolutely hits shots, to a degree that Jerome Robinson hits shots. I think both guys FLEW up the 1st round boards because of strong FG% across the board. But in a world where Perimeter defense is tough to come by and Jerome Robinson is really good size for his position, Wagner isn't the rim protector with massive wingspan that's sorely needed to make up for that.
Defense keeps guys on the floor with PT. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:07 pm Post subject:
Joe Pesci wrote:
People who don’t like this pick are people who dogmatically believe that you ALWAYS take best player available.
He wasn’t the “best” player available. There will be guys drafted after him with bigger roles who score more points, and that’s cool.
The Lakers, a team on the precipice of landing “Jordan and Pippen”, didn’t need the “best” player. They needed the guy who would fit best with their new franchise players and fit best on a team depraved of shooting.
Hypothetically speaking, imagine the Bulls being faced with decision to draft Kevin Johnson or Steve Kerr. KJ is the better player by leaps and bounds, but Kerr, obviously, makes the TEAM better. Why? Because balance, chemistry, and fit are real things, and drafting the “best” guy, sorry to break it to some of you, isn’t always the proper strategy.
The Lakers, very clearly, are team building, and contrary to popular belief, you CAN do that through the draft. The draft isn’t relegated to simply collecting shiny toys and assets.
The Lakers used the draft to construct the best team. Deal with it.
You'll never justify me being cool with drafting Jason Caffey over Michael Finley even when the Bulls could have REALLY used Finley and extended the careers of Pippen and MJ due to mileage.
Like I said about last year's draft, the Lakers were VERY lucky that the BPAs just so happened to fit their team needs very well. Did we need a power forward? No. We had Randle before he ever played center and Larry Nance Jr. So, how did that work out? _________________ Resident Car Nut.
You'll never justify me being cool with drafting Jason Caffey over Michael Finley even when the Bulls could have REALLY used Finley and extended the careers of Pippen and MJ due to mileage.
Like I said about last year's draft, the Lakers were VERY lucky that the BPAs just so happened to fit their team needs very well. Did we need a power forward? No. We had Randle before he ever played center and Larry Nance Jr. So, how did that work out?[/quote] man I dont know but to me if we can teach the kid to defend better he will be a better version or brook Lopez. Based on the little I saw of him he is a better shooter and passer then brook and just about the whole world is quicker. He has a good motor if he could learn to defend he should be good and the 47 pick shot over 50% all 4 years on open 3s. Look to me it a--rears they think they are getting Bron and george and they were looking for solid role players more so then just guys that could be homeruns. They drafted the top pick and pop guy a skill used with with Lonzo as well as lebron. Then the 2nd best spot up shooter. Like I said if they can defend at all they will thrive on this team
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:22 pm Post subject:
Quote:
vicman wrote:
You'll never justify me being cool with drafting Jason Caffey over Michael Finley even when the Bulls could have REALLY used Finley and extended the careers of Pippen and MJ due to mileage.
Like I said about last year's draft, the Lakers were VERY lucky that the BPAs just so happened to fit their team needs very well. Did we need a power forward? No. We had Randle before he ever played center and Larry Nance Jr. So, how did that work out?
man I dont know but to me if we can teach the kid to defend better he will be a better version or brook Lopez. Based on the little I saw of him he is a better shooter and passer then brook and just about the whole world is quicker. He has a good motor if he could learn to defend he should be good and the 47 pick shot over 50% all 4 years on open 3s. Look to me it a--rears they think they are getting Bron and george and they were looking for solid role players more so then just guys that could be homeruns. They drafted the top pick and pop guy a skill used with with Lonzo as well as lebron. Then the 2nd best spot up shooter. Like I said if they can defend at all they will thrive on this team
Do you think Brook Lopez can close games in the playoffs?
Skillwise, on offense, the shooting, passing, handle, IQ are all there. I'm not worried about that for Wagner.
I'm concerned that he gets headhunted and the Lakers can't take advantage of his offensive abilities because he's in foul trouble. Theoretical? Sure. Synergy isn't in his favor. It also stuck out during his last two games of the NCAA tournament too.
Here I am listening to YouTube clips on FO reaction and it's about Energy, Culture > skillset. Do personally think that's BPA? No.
So, Okobo wasn't that guy? Carter? Brunson? Evans?
I'm sure Wagner will play in Vegas and have some awesome games but man, even from a skill/position standpoint, there was legit talent left on the table.
At least it's VERY possible that Svi is BPA at 47. Bonga feels like he's out of sight, out of mind, but needs a lot of work too. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
You'll never justify me being cool with drafting Jason Caffey over Michael Finley even when the Bulls could have REALLY used Finley and extended the careers of Pippen and MJ due to mileage.
Like I said about last year's draft, the Lakers were VERY lucky that the BPAs just so happened to fit their team needs very well. Did we need a power forward? No. We had Randle before he ever played center and Larry Nance Jr. So, how did that work out?
man I dont know but to me if we can teach the kid to defend better he will be a better version or brook Lopez. Based on the little I saw of him he is a better shooter and passer then brook and just about the whole world is quicker. He has a good motor if he could learn to defend he should be good and the 47 pick shot over 50% all 4 years on open 3s. Look to me it a--rears they think they are getting Bron and george and they were looking for solid role players more so then just guys that could be homeruns. They drafted the top pick and pop guy a skill used with with Lonzo as well as lebron. Then the 2nd best spot up shooter. Like I said if they can defend at all they will thrive on this team
Do you think Brook Lopez can close games in the playoffs?
Skillwise, on offense, the shooting, passing, handle, IQ are all there. I'm not worried about that for Wagner.
I'm concerned that he gets headhunted and the Lakers can't take advantage of his offensive abilities because he's in foul trouble. Theoretical? Sure. Synergy isn't in his favor. It also stuck out during his last two games of the NCAA tournament too.
I think they drafted him to be a role player. I don't think anyone we could have gotten at 25 was going to be closing out playoff games. He is probably a 10 to 15 min a game player just for offense. Most likely against 2nd units where his defense will be hidden to some degree _________________ Previously LBJ23
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:30 pm Post subject:
Quote:
I think they drafted him to be a role player. I don't think anyone we could have gotten at 25 was going to be closing out playoff games. He is probably a 10 to 15 min a game player just for offense. Most likely against 2nd units where his defense will be hidden to some degre
See, that's where I disagree.
You fix Melton's shot, and he's your guard OG Anunoby. OG's shot wasn't that great before he left to the NBA either, but he got that fixed in a short time.
I'll be stubborn about this. I don't think Wagner is BPA with skills vs "best fit in culture" type.
Frankly, I don't understand the thought process. You WANT to draft future starters, as many as possible, hopefully All-Stars and franchise types. Josh Hart plays WAY beyond his draft position because, I can see him closing games in the playoffs VERY easily. Kuzma? Same. I think this is a more likely outcome for Svi rather than Wagner, simply because he actually has some positional size/IQ and doesn't get burned so badly defensively, while still bringing that insanely high level shooting anyway. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
I think they drafted him to be a role player. I don't think anyone we could have gotten at 25 was going to be closing out playoff games. He is probably a 10 to 15 min a game player just for offense. Most likely against 2nd units where his defense will be hidden to some degre
See, that's where I disagree.
You fix Melton's shot, and he's your guard OG Anunoby. OG's shot wasn't that great before he left to the NBA either, but he got that fixed in a short time.
I'll be stubborn about this. I don't think Wagner is BPA with skills vs "best fit in culture" type.
Frankly, I don't understand the thought process. You WANT to draft future starters, as many as possible, hopefully All-Stars and franchise types. Josh Hart plays WAY beyond his draft position because, I can see him closing games in the playoffs VERY easily. Kuzma? Same. I think this is a more likely outcome for Svi rather than Wagner, simply because he actually has some positional size/IQ and doesn't get burned so badly defensively, while still bringing that insanely high level shooting anyway.
I guess we'll see how Wagner shakes out defensively. Perhaps the Lakers saw something during the workout that leads them to believe he won't be a defensive liability.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:34 pm Post subject:
RCS926 wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
I think they drafted him to be a role player. I don't think anyone we could have gotten at 25 was going to be closing out playoff games. He is probably a 10 to 15 min a game player just for offense. Most likely against 2nd units where his defense will be hidden to some degre
See, that's where I disagree.
You fix Melton's shot, and he's your guard OG Anunoby. OG's shot wasn't that great before he left to the NBA either, but he got that fixed in a short time.
I'll be stubborn about this. I don't think Wagner is BPA with skills vs "best fit in culture" type.
Frankly, I don't understand the thought process. You WANT to draft future starters, as many as possible, hopefully All-Stars and franchise types. Josh Hart plays WAY beyond his draft position because, I can see him closing games in the playoffs VERY easily. Kuzma? Same. I think this is a more likely outcome for Svi rather than Wagner, simply because he actually has some positional size/IQ and doesn't get burned so badly defensively, while still bringing that insanely high level shooting anyway.
I guess we'll see how Wagner shakes out defensively. Perhaps the Lakers saw something during the workout that leads them to believe he won't be a defensive liability.
Fingers crossed. He never lacks in effort/motor/IQ, but the NBA level is a different beast. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
You'll never justify me being cool with drafting Jason Caffey over Michael Finley even when the Bulls could have REALLY used Finley and extended the careers of Pippen and MJ due to mileage.
Like I said about last year's draft, the Lakers were VERY lucky that the BPAs just so happened to fit their team needs very well. Did we need a power forward? No. We had Randle before he ever played center and Larry Nance Jr. So, how did that work out?
man I dont know but to me if we can teach the kid to defend better he will be a better version or brook Lopez. Based on the little I saw of him he is a better shooter and passer then brook and just about the whole world is quicker. He has a good motor if he could learn to defend he should be good and the 47 pick shot over 50% all 4 years on open 3s. Look to me it a--rears they think they are getting Bron and george and they were looking for solid role players more so then just guys that could be homeruns. They drafted the top pick and pop guy a skill used with with Lonzo as well as lebron. Then the 2nd best spot up shooter. Like I said if they can defend at all they will thrive on this team
Do you think Brook Lopez can close games in the playoffs?
Skillwise, on offense, the shooting, passing, handle, IQ are all there. I'm not worried about that for Wagner.
I'm concerned that he gets headhunted and the Lakers can't take advantage of his offensive abilities because he's in foul trouble. Theoretical? Sure. Synergy isn't in his favor. It also stuck out during his last two games of the NCAA tournament too.
Here I am listening to YouTube clips on FO reaction and it's about Energy, Culture > skillset. Do personally think that's BPA? No.
So, Okobo wasn't that guy? Carter? Brunson
I'm sure Wagner will play in Vegas and have some awesome games but man, even from a skill/position standpoint, there was legit talent left on the table.
At least it's VERY possible that Svi is BPA at 47. Bonga feels like he's out of sight, out of mind, but needs a lot of work too.
I am not sure his role will be to close out games I guess that will depend on how he does defensively. But if they can find a way to keep randle and add george and lebron then let's face it having knockdown shooters to come into the game is a good thing. How many games will the stretch big close out when you have Lonzo george Ingram lebron randle and also hart and kuzma to vie for time. I think these picks point to the fact that the lakers think they are getting Bron and george and drafted for players that best fit the role they envision being filled.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:38 pm Post subject:
The fact that it's a pick for a guy *not* expected to potentially close out games is already a thought process issue for me.
Having a knockdown shooter is a good thing. Thomas Bryant hasn't gone anywhere either too. Wagner is way ahead with IQ/intangible stuff over Bryant, but Bryant is what, younger than Mo?
The picks are for building around LeBron/George? So, Landry Shamet (arguably the #1 NCAA shooter) was there. De'Anthony Melton, arguably best stock% solid man defender at both guard positions was there to get extra possessions. Jalen Brunson, like Shamet, is almost full blue in terms of Synergy level shooting.
Like I said, this is a thought process thing. Drafting on culture, energy in the room, being likeable vs skillset, as if Brunson, Melton, or Shamet were bad dudes. None of them are. Hell, each of them even communicate defensively and have varying levels of leadership skills. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
Joined: 19 Jul 2002 Posts: 15403 Location: Oak Park
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:40 pm Post subject:
I didn’t feel so enthused by the fact that pelinka was talking about hart and Kuzma elbowing each other about how great it would be to play with him because he lights up a room or whatever. Not to say working with people should be hard but if we all picked people we liked or had charisma nothing would ever get done.
And moreover we don’t even have lebron Paul or kawhi and they are already picking Brian cooks and Luke Walton’s. I want a few more nick van exels before we start drafting for need. Talk about hubris.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:42 pm Post subject:
1hu2ren3dui4 wrote:
I didn’t feel so enthused by the fact that pelinka was talking about hart and Kuzma elbowing each other about how great it would be to play with him because he lights up a room or whatever. Not to say working with people should be hard but if we all picked people we liked or had charisma nothing would ever get done.
And moreover we don’t even have lebron Paul or kawhi and they are already picking Brian cooks and Luke Walton’s. I want a few more nick van exels before we start drafting for need. Talk about hubris.
This, except, I never want to draft for that kind of need.
But I guess the Lakers needed more stability and culture. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
I think people are mistaking activity for achievement here. This is also EXACTLY why people who are fairly die-hard about the draft, don't really pay attention to tournament games.
Just because it gets incredible exposure, doesn't mean is great work, let alone consistent. It was just last year that D.J. Wilson just had "solid" games in the tournament and was perceived as the ideal archetype and ended up drafted in the 1st round because he rode that draft hype.
So much hype, he was drafted #17.
He's played a total of 71 minutes for the entire season.
Now we're looking at Moritz Wagner who had a 24/15 game against a team that only had 1 center that was basically D. II or D III level. In fact, that box score reflects just how poorly Wagner's defense was in the paint.
Because really, there's no world where Krutwig should ever be getting 17 points against Wagner, on 7 of 11 shooting. None of his shots were outside of 15', almost all of it were in the paint, and Wagner practically gave up to Krutwig every time he got position.
Don't get me wrong. Loyola executed at a ridiculously high level throughout the tournament, but they're absolutely maximizing all the talent they have and limited their mistakes. That takes a team FAR.
That doesn't mean that Wagner will ever face competition that easy, ever again, especially next level.
Now to make it a bit more blunt.
Wagner can't defend in space. Got lit up by both guys of Villanova after a slow shooting start by them.
Wagner had issues against a strong player, not an NBA level athlete.
So, what can he do on the defensive end next level?
*chef's kiss*
I agree with Mike's analysis the majority of the time and it is pretty spot on for the current version of the prospect. However there should be consideration for future development be it physically and skills as part of the total analysis.
Yes that is hard to project but most NBA players improve once in the league otherwise they will be out sooner than later.
Does the prospect have the foundation to build upon (physically, mentally, work ethic)? These are the traits that should also be considered and not just his current skill set.
From watching his videos and listening to him talk I believe Mo Wagner possesses these personal traits.
Mo took a huge step from a sophomore to a junior. He has a lot of room to improve. His skills and his body
I just tweeted something about this, this morning.
You can teach a player to shoot in a relatively short amount of time.
But high end athletes like Capela and Randle took 3-4 years to develop their high-end level of perimeter switching.
At what point do you think Wagner can get to that point? If, ever?
I don't expect him to get to Capela or Randle's level but I do expect improvement to where he is not a liability on defense. In this respect I am of the belief he will put in the time and effort to improve in this area.
Part of it is also positioning, anticipation and the teams defensive scheme. There are many athletic NBA players but some still never become good/elite defenders. Why?
If we held most of the draftees this year to Capela and Randle's standards most would also pale in comparison. How many will reach their level? Not many in my perspective otherwise we would have potentially all-pro defensive players throughout the NBA which is not the case.
Not sure about Capela but I feel Randle is at that level if he stays consistently motivated.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:54 pm Post subject:
Quote:
I don't expect him to get to Capela or Randle's level but I do expect improvement to where he is not a liability on defense. In this respect I am of the belief he will put in the time and effort to improve in this area.
Part of it is also positioning, anticipation and the teams defensive scheme. There are many athletic NBA players but some still never become good/elite defenders. Why?
If we held most of the draftees this year to Capela and Randle's standards most would also pale in comparison. How many will reach their level? Not many in my perspective otherwise we would have potentially all-pro defensive players throughout the NBA which is not the case.
Not sure about Capela but I feel Randle is at that level if he stays consistently motivated.
I mean, that's what makes it tough for me. I believe in the shuttle run times and 3/4 sprint times, but I don't always believe they're on display on the floor. It shows why he's a studly Iso defender in limited possession on defense, but you want him to anchor a defense at 5. Strength will be a major thing for him and he's way ahead of the curve compared to Brook Lopez or Mehmet Okur by age. I mean the guys that come out now compared to 10-15 years ago are miles ahead skill-wise for the modern game. Lopez can stay on the floor, even when he's not a switchable defender, because he's practically immovable in the post on defense. Guys like Embiid have to dance around him or power through, which isn't easy. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
The man is faster than Randle and probably faster than Capela though I couldn't find any combine times for him.
He seems to have quick hands and hustle.
I think the argument about a weak base makes sense... he doesn't have that sheer power of Lopez in his legs and core... but when I see a near seven footer run like a wing to save a ball from going out of bounds... I don't see why he can't become a good defender eventually.
man I dont know but to me if we can teach the kid to defend better he will be a better version or brook Lopez. Based on the little I saw of him he is a better shooter and passer then brook and just about the whole world is quicker. He has a good motor if he could learn to defend he should be good and the 47 pick shot over 50% all 4 years on open 3s. Look to me it a--rears they think they are getting Bron and george and they were looking for solid role players more so then just guys that could be homeruns. They drafted the top pick and pop guy a skill used with with Lonzo as well as lebron. Then the 2nd best spot up shooter. Like I said if they can defend at all they will thrive on this team
Brook Lopez had a 7'5.5" wingspan with a 9'5" standing reach.
Do you think he would have survived in the NBA with Mo's measurable?
I mean, that's what makes it tough for me. I believe in the shuttle run times and 3/4 sprint times, but I don't always believe they're on display on the floor. It shows why he's a studly Iso defender in limited possession on defense, but you want him to anchor a defense at 5. Strength will be a major thing for him and he's way ahead of the curve compared to Brook Lopez or Mehmet Okur by age. I mean the guys that come out now compared to 10-15 years ago are miles ahead skill-wise for the modern game. Lopez can stay on the floor, even when he's not a switchable defender, because he's practically immovable in the post on defense. Guys like Embiid have to dance around him or power through, which isn't easy.
Yes big and strong also works. Another 15 lbs puts him at around 260 which is doable and workable.
I agree with your assessment of Melton but there has to be something we are unaware of for him to drop so far as I don't see how the majority of the NBA teams did not see his talent.
I mean, that's what makes it tough for me. I believe in the shuttle run times and 3/4 sprint times, but I don't always believe they're on display on the floor. It shows why he's a studly Iso defender in limited possession on defense, but you want him to anchor a defense at 5. Strength will be a major thing for him and he's way ahead of the curve compared to Brook Lopez or Mehmet Okur by age. I mean the guys that come out now compared to 10-15 years ago are miles ahead skill-wise for the modern game. Lopez can stay on the floor, even when he's not a switchable defender, because he's practically immovable in the post on defense. Guys like Embiid have to dance around him or power through, which isn't easy.
Yes big and strong also works. Another 15 lbs puts him at around 260 which is doable and workable.
I agree with your assessment of Melton but there has to be something we are unaware of for him to drop so far as I don't see how the majority of the NBA teams did not see his talent.
I wonder how much more weight he can really put on.
At the 2017 Combine he was 231, this year he was 241 with 6.5% body fat.
Joined: 19 Jul 2002 Posts: 15403 Location: Oak Park
Posted: Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:08 pm Post subject:
To be completely honest I don’t want to nitpick the end of the draft but I was quite excited when they bought a pick. Watching Jesse and Ryan interviews saying that they only do that when they are really willing to stick their neck out.
Bonga could have been had at svi pick and I’m not sure exactly what they are seeing in svi so I’m not sure of where the conviction came from.
I mean, that's what makes it tough for me. I believe in the shuttle run times and 3/4 sprint times, but I don't always believe they're on display on the floor. It shows why he's a studly Iso defender in limited possession on defense, but you want him to anchor a defense at 5. Strength will be a major thing for him and he's way ahead of the curve compared to Brook Lopez or Mehmet Okur by age. I mean the guys that come out now compared to 10-15 years ago are miles ahead skill-wise for the modern game. Lopez can stay on the floor, even when he's not a switchable defender, because he's practically immovable in the post on defense. Guys like Embiid have to dance around him or power through, which isn't easy.
Yes big and strong also works. Another 15 lbs puts him at around 260 which is doable and workable.
I agree with your assessment of Melton but there has to be something we are unaware of for him to drop so far as I don't see how the majority of the NBA teams did not see his talent.
I wonder how much more weight he can really put on.
At the 2017 Combine he was 231, this year he was 241 with 6.5% body fat.
Brook Lopez was 260 coming into the NBA.
Not really sure on additional weight. He does not have the broad shoulders and wide chest that portend to adding upper body weight. Possibly on his caboose but don't want to slow him down anymore.
I actually think a ceiling of Nurkic with a jump shot and better handle is a good ceiling for him. As in as high as he could likely possibly reach.
He needs to get NBA strong though, that's one thing that gets him sealed and in a bad position when he's posted up on. _________________ How NBA 2K18 failed the All-Time Lakers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxMBYm3wwxk
Last edited by MJST on Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
It blows me away that Ryan McDonough traded away the Lakers pick from the Steve Nash trade to acquire and overpay Brandon Knight, and then traded for that same pick last night by moving Zhaire Smith and the Heat's 2021 unprotected 1st, which could end up even more valuable than the Lakers pick. And both trades were to Philly.
So McDonough could've had Mikal Bridges and Zhaire Smith last night plus kept the Heat's 2021 1st. And they wouldn't owe $30M to Knight for the next two years. Brett Brown straight up Hinkie'd McDonough. _________________ Under New Management
It blows me away that Ryan McDonough traded away the Lakers pick from the Steve Nash trade to acquire and overpay Brandon Knight, and then traded for that same pick last night by moving Zhaire Smith and the Heat's 2021 unprotected 1st, which could end up even more valuable than the Lakers pick. And both trades were to Philly.
So McDonough could've had Mikal Bridges and Zhaire Smith last night plus kept the Heat's 2021 1st. And they wouldn't owe $30M to Knight for the next two years. Brett Brown straight up Hinkie'd McDonough.
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