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manlisten
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 Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things.
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
So with Doncic, do you think a lot of his potential is rooted in how well his body takes to an NBA-level strength and conditioning program? Everyone seems to be down on his physical profile, but it's not like he's even close to his peak condition and shedding some of that "baby fat" could easily kick his speed/quickness up a notch. At his current size, I can't help but see a (much) better playmaking version of Gallo, though a weaker overall athlete. That's not necessarily a criticism, since Gallo was a #6 pick himself with a relatively high ceiling coming into the NBA.
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Doncic's upside is entirely based on his hoop IQ.
How many PGs can see the full width of the floor, make the read, and make that pass off the dribble? It's not as many in the NBA as you may think.
Now, how many of those PGs are 6'8"?
With the way a lot of people are looking at the draft, applying analytics, looking at their profiles, a lot of people don't want to go outlier in terms of projecting utmost upside. But, it's not fair to Doncic when the skill level is that high.
I also think A LOT of people really underrate how well NBA players improve. Ricky Rubio went from a steals guy, to an actual defender. If I just look at Utah, Rudy Gobert, Mitchell, Rubio, and Ingles are all playing WAY above their normal projections. If Gobert was this kind of defensive threat, he'd be a top 5 pick in his lottery. Same for Mitchell and PnR play. Rubio actually knows how to play defense. Ingles, would have actually been drafted.
So sure, an average projection of 6'8" 3-year Gordon Hayward as a rookie? Absolutely. 14/3/3 player. Hayward's 3-point percentage has always been roughly between 35% to 40%. At Butler, it was 45% as a freshman (with 33mpg) but 29% his sophomore year.
And this is just an average projection; kind of like me expecting bigmen to refine their shooting, centers eventually learning how to pass, etc.
| Quote: | | MPJ seems like a classic pure scoring forward that's going to put up a lot of points early on in his career (on a steady dose of ISO ball), but the all-around impact won't be there unless he makes significant strides in other areas. I'd be very wary if I was a team drafting him to be my franchise player. Melo/Beasley-type, but not as naturally gifted/talented as either. |
MPJ is like Gallinari with footwork and Blake Griffin's frame. And, I mean that in terms of height and frame to add muscle. Just, shooting is so mindblowingly important, and MPJ has flashed some crazy 2-foot explosiveness before, that no one wants to miss it.
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Sentient Meat
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
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44TheLogo
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
you think trae young can't shoot and can't pass?  
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Any dude that is undersized but can pass off the dribble 50', and flashes it multiple times, gets a pass in my book.
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manlisten
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 were either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that.
_________________
It was reminiscent of one of those Most Interesting Man in the World advertisements: "I don't always shoot 6-for-28 from the field, but when I do, I become the youngest player in league history to score 28,000 career points."
Last edited by manlisten on Mon May 21, 2018 2:46 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Baron Von Humongous wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | GoldenThroat wrote: | | crazylakerfan001 wrote: | Went back to read last years draft thread and oh boy how wrong you guys were.
Nobody saw Donovan Mitchell. Nobody. |
I never even saw him play. |
http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?p=7274725#7274725
imma repost this til i die every time donovan mitchell gets brought up. didn't believe strongly enough in my instincts on donovan last year. overlooked fultz' casualness. still too early to say on monk + collins. |
Good work. I had him at #8, which I feel just fine about under the circumstances. It's the Tatum and Monk misses that are embarrassing. |
Though I never included him on my list of prospects when I "rated" the guys, I think I would've had him 8th too. That's because of the guys I had in the commonly mocked top tier, I know I didn't like Fox and Collins, and I thought Isaac was a project. Easy for me to say since I didn't write a word about Mitchell, though! |
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Mike@LG
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:47 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
You're right.
37.1% USG. Basically a tick below Russell Westbrook USG in terms of being the entire offense.
I dunno man. I think once that USG normalizes, you're going to see higher shooting percentages and lower turnovers...
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Sentient Meat
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
I'm not saying he's a slam dunk for the pros... but I wish they had a game by game breakdown because he really struggled once teams focused on him... he had no one to pull gravity from him... so he ended up forcing plays. If you put Trae on a team with future pros like Aaron Holiday... Leaf... and you put Lonzo on Oklahoma... Ball's offensive issues would have probably been exposed as well.
I think if Lonzo becomes an average shooter, he will be the better player because his vision is amazing and he's a much better defender. But if Trae plays on a team that can draw even a little gravity from him, I think he will be excellent as well. |
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44TheLogo
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
do you know how shooting averages work? he shot 36% from 3 for the season. that's the number. that he had some games above it and some games below it is literally the definition of how an average works.
next thing you're gonna tell me is that stephen curry can't shoot because when he's not shooting over 43% from 3, he's shooting under 43%, and if he's shooting under 43% half the time he's a terrible shooter!
like, at MOST, that argument can support the idea that he's a streaky shooter and goes on hot and cold streaks.
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manlisten
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| 44TheLogo wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
|
I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
do you know how shooting averages work? he shot 36% from 3 for the season. that's the number. that he had some games above it and some games below it is literally the definition of how an average works.
next thing you're gonna tell me is that stephen curry can't shoot because when he's not shooting over 43% from 3, he's shooting under 43%, and if he's shooting under 43% half the time he's a terrible shooter!
like, at MOST, that argument can support the idea that he's a streaky shooter and goes on hot and cold streaks. |
No need to be condescending, thanks. Yes I know how averages work. For one 36% is nothing to scream about. And it doesn't tell the whole story which is why you look at splits. If you do that instead of looking at season averages or highlights, you'd expect a guy like Monk to struggle with his shot in the pros. Trae's splits are worse than Monk's. He had some TERRIBLE games from 3. Doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Steph.
_________________
It was reminiscent of one of those Most Interesting Man in the World advertisements: "I don't always shoot 6-for-28 from the field, but when I do, I become the youngest player in league history to score 28,000 career points." |
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manlisten
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
|
I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
You're right.
37.1% USG. Basically a tick below Russell Westbrook USG in terms of being the entire offense.
I dunno man. I think once that USG normalizes, you're going to see higher shooting percentages and lower turnovers... |
I see your point but I think he's a guy that needs the ball in his hands but isn't good for the team. Take away half his usage and is he even a lottery talent? Also it wasn't just the usage but the shot selection. It seriously angers me even thinking about the amount of incredibly stupid shots he would take. I would hate to play with a guy like that. And a big part of why he takes such dumb shots is because he's not great at getting around his man or shooting over length. Lonzo struggled one on one because he didn't have any moves and would default to a step back. He's very very very gradually developing some go to moves and looks great at times. Trae pulls out his bag of tricks, gets nowhere and settles for a contested jumper that bricks.
_________________
It was reminiscent of one of those Most Interesting Man in the World advertisements: "I don't always shoot 6-for-28 from the field, but when I do, I become the youngest player in league history to score 28,000 career points." |
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44TheLogo
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Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 6364
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| manlisten wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
|
I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
do you know how shooting averages work? he shot 36% from 3 for the season. that's the number. that he had some games above it and some games below it is literally the definition of how an average works.
next thing you're gonna tell me is that stephen curry can't shoot because when he's not shooting over 43% from 3, he's shooting under 43%, and if he's shooting under 43% half the time he's a terrible shooter!
like, at MOST, that argument can support the idea that he's a streaky shooter and goes on hot and cold streaks. |
No need to be condescending, thanks. Yes I know how averages work. For one 36% is nothing to scream about. And it doesn't tell the whole story which is why you look at splits. If you do that instead of looking at season averages or highlights, you'd expect a guy like Monk to struggle with his shot in the pros. Trae's splits are worse than Monk's. He had some TERRIBLE games from 3. Doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Steph. |
that he has terrible games from 3. that there is variance around the average is insignificant unless there is a consistent variable that explains the variance. to say that he can't shoot is extreme hyperbole.
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crazylakerfan001
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Joined: 14 Feb 2011
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| epak wrote: | | How were we wrong when we got the guy we wanted at 2? |
You were wrong because you were not able to identify the talent in Donovan Mitchell.
Tell ya what, You identify the best player in this draft and exactly 1 year from now we will evaluate. Ill bookmark this page. |
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manlisten
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Joined: 09 Jul 2004
Posts: 3189
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| 44TheLogo wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | 44TheLogo wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
|
I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
do you know how shooting averages work? he shot 36% from 3 for the season. that's the number. that he had some games above it and some games below it is literally the definition of how an average works.
next thing you're gonna tell me is that stephen curry can't shoot because when he's not shooting over 43% from 3, he's shooting under 43%, and if he's shooting under 43% half the time he's a terrible shooter!
like, at MOST, that argument can support the idea that he's a streaky shooter and goes on hot and cold streaks. |
No need to be condescending, thanks. Yes I know how averages work. For one 36% is nothing to scream about. And it doesn't tell the whole story which is why you look at splits. If you do that instead of looking at season averages or highlights, you'd expect a guy like Monk to struggle with his shot in the pros. Trae's splits are worse than Monk's. He had some TERRIBLE games from 3. Doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Steph. |
that he has terrible games from 3. that there is variance around the average is insignificant unless there is a consistent variable that explains the variance. to say that he can't shoot is extreme hyperbole. |
His lack of size and inability to create separation explain the variance.
_________________
It was reminiscent of one of those Most Interesting Man in the World advertisements: "I don't always shoot 6-for-28 from the field, but when I do, I become the youngest player in league history to score 28,000 career points." |
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BigGameHames
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Joined: 24 May 2015
Posts: 7982
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| crazylakerfan001 wrote: | | epak wrote: | | How were we wrong when we got the guy we wanted at 2? |
You were wrong because you were not able to identify the talent in Donovan Mitchell.
Tell ya what, You identify the best player in this draft and exactly 1 year from now we will evaluate. Ill bookmark this page. |
The best player in the draft isn’t identified after 1 year. Lonzo has a chance to be the best player in his draft just like the best player in this class may not be the best in 1 year. Some guys take more time. |
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Mike@LG
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Location: Orange County, CA
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Take away half his usage and is he even a lottery talent? |
Yes. I see you're making your point on bad shots, but not taking into the context of why the shots were so bad. The fact that he shot 36% behind the arc, almost always contested, with over 10 3-point attempts per game, tells me how he was 90% of the entire offense, and his teammates couldn't even help him out.
There were times throughout the season, where Trae basically had 1.5 guys on him past 30', and the rest of the team had to go 4 on 4. They couldn't create anything despite the extra space. That's how bad it was. Trae's contested 3-point shots had more value than the team actually going 4 on 4.
Fortunately I have some information about him attacking.
32.7% of his total field goal attempts were at the rim. Most PGs are around 25. He can get there, that's not the problem. 53.7% finishing at the rim? Definitely sub-par, but that doesn't account for the 39.8% for all other 2-point areas, which is, above average. Unfortunately I don't have a shot chart that exploits his floater game, but it's no different adjustment.
Going further into analytics, only 11% of his shots at the rim were assisted, 3% all other 2pt range, 27% behind the arc.
A good prospect is around 35/10/90. The volume of individual shot creation that he had to do was off the chart, and there's no reason why even a team like the Orlando Magic, who at least has Vucevic, would save him so much energy expenditure on that shot creation, because he can actually do something with the basketball.
Lonzo didn't struggle because of context. He struggled because he actually lacked the skills and experience.
Trae, isn't lacking the skills and experience.
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Last edited by Mike@LG on Mon May 21, 2018 3:28 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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justsomelakerfan
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Joined: 16 Jul 2016
Posts: 10939
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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| @hmfaigen wrote: | The Lakers will be working out six more players on Tuesday morning:
Emmett Naar - Saint Mary's
Barry Brown Jr. - Kansas State
Fletcher Magee - Wofford
Gabe DeVoe - Clemson
Duncan Robinson - Michigan
Obi Enechionyia - Temple |
who |
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Mike@LG
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Posts: 65135
Location: Orange County, CA
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| justsomelakerfan wrote: | | @hmfaigen wrote: | The Lakers will be working out six more players on Tuesday morning:
Emmett Naar - Saint Mary's
Barry Brown Jr. - Kansas State
Fletcher Magee - Wofford
Gabe DeVoe - Clemson
Duncan Robinson - Michigan
Obi Enechionyia - Temple |
who |
Duncan Robinson >>>>
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LakerSanity
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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The latest -
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/21/17374906/nba-draft-combine-rumblings-takeaways
| Quote: | Boise State forward Chandler Hutchison abruptly withdrew from the combine and shut down all workouts Wednesday, which league executives believe to be the result of a promise from a team in the range of no. 18 (Spurs) and no. 24 (Trail Blazers) …….
•Multiple league sources say Missouri big man Jontay Porter, the younger brother of Michael Porter, is leaning toward returning to school for his sophomore season......
•Villanova guard Donte DiVincenzo is expected by most executives I spoke with to return to Villanova despite a strong showing in Chicago.... |
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justsomelakerfan
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | The latest -
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/21/17374906/nba-draft-combine-rumblings-takeaways
| Quote: | Boise State forward Chandler Hutchison abruptly withdrew from the combine and shut down all workouts Wednesday, which league executives believe to be the result of a promise from a team in the range of no. 18 (Spurs) and no. 24 (Trail Blazers) …….
•Multiple league sources say Missouri big man Jontay Porter, the younger brother of Michael Porter, is leaning toward returning to school for his sophomore season......
•Villanova guard Donte DiVincenzo is expected by most executives I spoke with to return to Villanova despite a strong showing in Chicago.... |
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Will be big time bummed out if Donte goes back to school too. Really started to warm up to him after watching highlights and the combine scrimmage. |
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BigGameHames
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Posts: 7982
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | | Quote: | | Take away half his usage and is he even a lottery talent? |
Yes. I see you're making your point on bad shots, but not taking into the context of why the shots were so bad. The fact that he shot 36% behind the arc, almost always contested, with over 10 3-point attempts per game, tells me how he was 90% of the entire offense, and his teammates couldn't even help him out.
There were times throughout the season, where Trae basically had 1.5 guys on him past 30', and the rest of the team had to go 4 on 4. They couldn't create anything despite the extra space. That's how bad it was. Trae's contested 3-point shots had more value than the team actually going 4 on 4.
Fortunately I have some information about him attacking.
32.7% of his total field goal attempts were at the rim. Most PGs are around 25. He can get there, that's not the problem. 53.7% finishing at the rim? Definitely sub-par, but that doesn't account for the 39.8% for all other 2-point areas, which is, above average. Unfortunately I don't have a shot chart that exploits his floater game, but it's no different adjustment.
Going further into analytics, only 11% of his shots at the rim were assisted, 3% all other 2pt range, 27% behind the arc.
A good prospect is around 35/10/90. The volume of individual shot creation that he had to do was off the chart, and there's no reason why even a team like the Orlando Magic, who at least has Vucevic, would save him so much energy expenditure on that shot creation, because he can actually do something with the basketball.
Lonzo didn't struggle because of context. He struggled because he actually lacked the skills and experience.
Trae, isn't lacking the skills and experience. |
Couldn’t? Or he didn’t allow them to? That’s a valid question. We’ve seen this be used as an excuse before and sometimes it’s proved to be valid, others it’s been proved that the teammates were being marginalized by their own superstar teammate. That last two #1 picks have somewhat been case studys for each side of the argument. That’s what makes Young such an intriguing prospect, he could end up thriving with less attention and responsibility or he may not. |
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manlisten
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Joined: 09 Jul 2004
Posts: 3189
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Mike@LG wrote: | | Quote: | | Take away half his usage and is he even a lottery talent? |
Yes. I see you're making your point on bad shots, but not taking into the context of why the shots were so bad. The fact that he shot 36% behind the arc, almost always contested, with over 10 3-point attempts per game, tells me how he was 90% of the entire offense, and his teammates couldn't even help him out.
There were times throughout the season, where Trae basically had 1.5 guys on him past 30', and the rest of the team had to go 4 on 4. They couldn't create anything despite the extra space. That's how bad it was. Trae's contested 3-point shots had more value than the team actually going 4 on 4.
Fortunately I have some information about him attacking.
32.7% of his total field goal attempts were at the rim. Most PGs are around 25. He can get there, that's not the problem. 53.7% finishing at the rim? Definitely sub-par, but that doesn't account for the 39.8% for all other 2-point areas, which is, above average. Unfortunately I don't have a shot chart that exploits his floater game, but it's no different adjustment.
Going further into analytics, only 11% of his shots at the rim were assisted, 3% all other 2pt range, 27% behind the arc.
A good prospect is around 35/10/90. The volume of individual shot creation that he had to do was off the chart, and there's no reason why even a team like the Orlando Magic, who at least has Vucevic, would save him so much energy expenditure on that shot creation, because he can actually do something with the basketball.
Lonzo didn't struggle because of context. He struggled because he actually lacked the skills and experience.
Trae, isn't lacking the skills and experience. |
All valid points. But I feel like if you're not going to provide anything defensively or on the boards you need to be a prolific scorer and if you significantly reduce his usage, he's not that. The shots he was taking were so, so, so bad man and I can't blame it all on his teammates. I've truly never seen anyone take such horrible shots and so often, ever. Not even on ameatur night at 24. It's going to be a huge obstacle for him to learn how to take good shots, that's not something that's just going to click overnight for him. He'll need to wind up somewhere with perfect circumstances for him to grow or he'll struggle severely.
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It was reminiscent of one of those Most Interesting Man in the World advertisements: "I don't always shoot 6-for-28 from the field, but when I do, I become the youngest player in league history to score 28,000 career points."
Last edited by manlisten on Mon May 21, 2018 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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The God Particle
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Joined: 01 May 2015
Posts: 2196
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | | manlisten wrote: | | Sentient Meat wrote: | I saw Trae dominate before he became a national sensation... and then I saw him struggle once coaches began to game plan for him.
The one thing you cannot deny is that he can shoot and pass.
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I feel very comfortable denying both those things. |
He shot 86% from the line had 9 assists and scored 27 PPG with a 58% TS as a freshman one man team even after a horrifying end of season slump.
I'd still give him a chance. |
Those numbers need a lot of context. 8 assists to 5 turnovers for starters. God awful shot selection that would make JR Smith blush. Super high usage, the highest since college usage has been recorded about 10 years ago. In 32 college games he shot >38% from 3 in 15 games. The other 17 we're either just average or extremely inefficient. So the majority of the time he couldn't shoot and he does do anything else well enough to offset that. |
I'm not saying he's a slam dunk for the pros... but I wish they had a game by game breakdown because he really struggled once teams focused on him... he had no one to pull gravity from him... so he ended up forcing plays. If you put Trae on a team with future pros like Aaron Holiday... Leaf... and you put Lonzo on Oklahoma... Ball's offensive issues would have probably been exposed as well.
I think if Lonzo becomes an average shooter, he will be the better player because his vision is amazing and he's a much better defender. But if Trae plays on a team that can draw even a little gravity from him, I think he will be excellent as well. |
It's ok to say it! TY is a SLAM DUNK in this draft. His peak is going to be top 10 player in the NBA. |
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cthroatgtr
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Joined: 21 Aug 2005
Posts: 1375
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Trae Young will be long gone before the Lakers pick why is anyone debating him in this thread? It will be curious where the Lakers go with their pick or if they even keep it. If a team would take Deng, perhaps they let the pick go (not saying anyone would). That would allow the team to keep Randle and sign two which would be a pretty good haul. All honestly a pipe dream but why not. |
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