The Lakers will be working out six more players on Tuesday morning:
Emmett Naar - Saint Mary's
Barry Brown Jr. - Kansas State
Fletcher Magee - Wofford
Gabe DeVoe - Clemson
Duncan Robinson - Michigan
Obi Enechionyia - Temple
who
Duncan Robinson >>>>
You always have a good eye, Mike. That's a guy I'd love to see on the SL squad - they can leave Travis Wear at home.
Old vid w Michigan teammates.
Duncan Robinson is destined to play for the Spurs.
Joined: 15 Jul 2009 Posts: 18492 Location: The Garden Island
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 10:09 pm Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
babyskyhook wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
adkindo wrote:
the thing with Mitchell Robinson is I would not bet the farm on him being successful in the NBA....but when a guy like Mike Gribanov says his upside reaches the level of being the best big in the entire draft....better than Ayton.....better than Bamba.....better than Jackson....not sure how a team does not give that guy strong consideration if he is on the board @ #25.
For sure, it just seems like a promise is unlikely considering that he didn't play in a competitive game last season, and they haven't worked him out. (unless they did so in secret)
I was also wondering if they’ve worked him out in secret. It would make sense to do so if they thought he was a potential steal that would go much higher once teams got a good look at him.
Work him out secretly, then give him a promise so he shuts the entire process down. No one else would use a 1st RD pick on him if he won’t meet with them and with no college ball to evaluate.
I’m hoping this is exactly what happened, as it would be a way for LA to get a lotto-level big man at #25.
just playing devil's advocate.....why does a guy many experts rank fringe lottery agree to this? That is potentially leaving millions of dollars on the table over the rookie contract.
You make a good point.
I honestly haven’t been paying much attention to the draft this year, as I think there’s a 50/50 chance that we get Lebron and the pick gets moved to offload Deng/re-sign Randle, but both of the mocks I’ve looked at (ESPN and SI) have had us taking Robinson at 25 for a few weeks, so I hadn’t thought of him as being on the fringe of the lotto at this point.
I know you pay close attention to the draft. Are there other mocks that have him going substantially higher ? He seems like a guy that GMs would be leery of taking in the lotto, given his history.
If his team doesn’t think he’d go too much higher than 25, maybe they think LA is the best fit for him in terms of roster needs, development potential/PT and the overall youth on the team pointing towards a slow build if we don’t land Lebron ?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
Hopefully this isn't disk*sh but
It's like the old adage in baseball. See the ball hit the ball. Well it isn't that simple otherwise it would not be since 1941 that a player has reached the magical mark of getting 4 hits in every 10 at bats for a season.
Similarly analyzing bball prospects is not simple. All players can help their team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring but to what degree will they be effective in an NBA venue is the million dollar question. Maybe it's paralysis by analysis but projecting a prospects success by analyzing the entire player (physically, mentally, skill set) allows an educated decision be made on an prospects NBA potential.
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later. _________________ substance over style
the thing with Mitchell Robinson is I would not bet the farm on him being successful in the NBA....but when a guy like Mike Gribanov says his upside reaches the level of being the best big in the entire draft....better than Ayton.....better than Bamba.....better than Jackson....not sure how a team does not give that guy strong consideration if he is on the board @ #25.
For sure, it just seems like a promise is unlikely considering that he didn't play in a competitive game last season, and they haven't worked him out. (unless they did so in secret)
I was also wondering if they’ve worked him out in secret. It would make sense to do so if they thought he was a potential steal that would go much higher once teams got a good look at him.
Work him out secretly, then give him a promise so he shuts the entire process down. No one else would use a 1st RD pick on him if he won’t meet with them and with no college ball to evaluate.
I’m hoping this is exactly what happened, as it would be a way for LA to get a lotto-level big man at #25.
just playing devil's advocate.....why does a guy many experts rank fringe lottery agree to this? That is potentially leaving millions of dollars on the table over the rookie contract.
You make a good point.
I honestly haven’t been paying much attention to the draft this year, as I think there’s a 50/50 chance that we get Lebron and the pick gets moved to offload Deng/re-sign Randle, but both of the mocks I’ve looked at (ESPN and SI) have had us taking Robinson at 25 for a few weeks, so I hadn’t thought of him as being on the fringe of the lotto at this point.
I know you pay close attention to the draft. Are there other mocks that have him going substantially higher ? He seems like a guy that GMs would be leery of taking in the lotto, given his history.
If his team doesn’t think he’d go too much higher than 25, maybe they think LA is the best fit for him in terms of roster needs, development potential/PT and the overall youth on the team pointing towards a slow build if we don’t land Lebron ?
What I don’t understand is if a team made you a promise, why you would jeopardize that by confirming it on social media. That does nobody any favors. The fact that this dude retweeted and liked lakers stuff tells me it’s a bs promise. _________________ substance over style
I think he moves off ball and shoots of the move better than Matt. I need to go back and look at Matt’s game again to say anything about the two with any certainty _________________ substance over style
the thing with Mitchell Robinson is I would not bet the farm on him being successful in the NBA....but when a guy like Mike Gribanov says his upside reaches the level of being the best big in the entire draft....better than Ayton.....better than Bamba.....better than Jackson....not sure how a team does not give that guy strong consideration if he is on the board @ #25.
For sure, it just seems like a promise is unlikely considering that he didn't play in a competitive game last season, and they haven't worked him out. (unless they did so in secret)
I was also wondering if they’ve worked him out in secret. It would make sense to do so if they thought he was a potential steal that would go much higher once teams got a good look at him.
Work him out secretly, then give him a promise so he shuts the entire process down. No one else would use a 1st RD pick on him if he won’t meet with them and with no college ball to evaluate.
I’m hoping this is exactly what happened, as it would be a way for LA to get a lotto-level big man at #25.
just playing devil's advocate.....why does a guy many experts rank fringe lottery agree to this? That is potentially leaving millions of dollars on the table over the rookie contract.
You make a good point.
I honestly haven’t been paying much attention to the draft this year, as I think there’s a 50/50 chance that we get Lebron and the pick gets moved to offload Deng/re-sign Randle, but both of the mocks I’ve looked at (ESPN and SI) have had us taking Robinson at 25 for a few weeks, so I hadn’t thought of him as being on the fringe of the lotto at this point.
I know you pay close attention to the draft. Are there other mocks that have him going substantially higher ? He seems like a guy that GMs would be leery of taking in the lotto, given his history.
If his team doesn’t think he’d go too much higher than 25, maybe they think LA is the best fit for him in terms of roster needs, development potential/PT and the overall youth on the team pointing towards a slow build if we don’t land Lebron ?
Agree with all this. I wonder if his team/agent has received mixed responses as to his draft position and essentially based on what you stated concluded that LA is a great landing spot.
I look at it like looking for a job. Do you take the job being offered or take the chance you will be offered a more lucrative position but there are 20 other applicants who you are competing against.
I think he moves off ball and shoots of the move better than Matt. I need to go back and look at Matt’s game again to say anything about the two with any certainty
Hard to judge off summer league as he was basically catch and shoot. At Iowa State he showed a little more.
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31924 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:13 pm Post subject:
GoldenThroat wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
NBA GMs can often outthink themselves
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
It really is a good point and something that makes one think. I do think Ayton is relatively "safe" as a player that won't bust--he has far more physical tools than a guy like Okafor, for example--but it's worth asking the question how far a player like that can take you, for the reasons that you and others have talked about. But if you're a team like Phoenix, or Sacto, wouldn't just getting better be of major help? Maybe there's a case to be made that if Ayton helps your franchise get better and win more games, you gladly take that and then deal with the potential consequences of him not being ideal to be on the court at the end of playoff games, should you eventually get back to the playoffs. Of course, the same things could apply to regular season games, but I think it's more pronounced in the playoffs in a 7-game series where coaches can specifically game plan and adjust.
Joined: 15 Jul 2009 Posts: 18492 Location: The Garden Island
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:19 pm Post subject:
GoldenThroat wrote:
44TheLogo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
NBA GMs can often outthink themselves
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
I’ve always thought that if a guy won’t play defense in college, there’s no way he’s going to play defense in the NBA once he’s got a guaranteed contract worth millions of dollars.
It’s why I wasn’t a fan of Jabari and Oakafor.
I haven’t watched Ayton or Bagley much, but from reading up on them, I’d be leery of taking either one of them.
Steven A loves Ayton. That should tell us something, considering how much he hated Porky.
Joined: 20 Jul 2006 Posts: 8518 Location: Left coast
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:25 pm Post subject:
epak wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Endless3D wrote:
I'd be down with Mitchell Robinson, why is everyone low on him
The unknown. Already 20 with no college game film. Work ethic? Personality?
Questionable choices (see college selection, dropped I believe from USA U18 or U19 team).
But he can dunk with one dribble from half court.
Certainly that must count for something?
If that's true, Magic has seen that and more IF...they promised to select him. I don't imagine he'll contribute greatly this year but it sounds like there's potential inside and outside.
Joined: 30 Nov 2006 Posts: 33474 Location: Long Beach, California
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:27 pm Post subject:
I'm an Ayton fan because he has a chance at being a dominant physical force. His defensive failings are less about his capabilities and more about his focus. He could be a dominant defensive force and a Shaq-like presence on O. That's his ceiling. However, I say all that knowing that he deviates from modern-day concepts of what a big man should be on offense, while, for now, providing signs that he won't fulfill the defensive role you'd expect, at a minimum, from a 7'1 big guy who gets real minutes in today's NBA.
Still, of the old school big men that have come into the draft since, say, Greg Oden, he may be the last gasp chance for the traditional big man to show he still can have a place amongst the elite superstars of the NBA. As I've said, he could be the Shaq to Embiid's Olajuwon.
I'm not a Bagley fan what-so-ever though. He's a bigger version of Josh Jackson, who I wasn't a big fan of last year's draft either. I'm tempted to rank Carter Jr. over Bagley, in fact. _________________ LakersGround's Terms of Service
Joined: 15 Jul 2009 Posts: 18492 Location: The Garden Island
Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 11:28 pm Post subject:
44TheLogo wrote:
babyskyhook wrote:
adkindo wrote:
babyskyhook wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
adkindo wrote:
the thing with Mitchell Robinson is I would not bet the farm on him being successful in the NBA....but when a guy like Mike Gribanov says his upside reaches the level of being the best big in the entire draft....better than Ayton.....better than Bamba.....better than Jackson....not sure how a team does not give that guy strong consideration if he is on the board @ #25.
For sure, it just seems like a promise is unlikely considering that he didn't play in a competitive game last season, and they haven't worked him out. (unless they did so in secret)
I was also wondering if they’ve worked him out in secret. It would make sense to do so if they thought he was a potential steal that would go much higher once teams got a good look at him.
Work him out secretly, then give him a promise so he shuts the entire process down. No one else would use a 1st RD pick on him if he won’t meet with them and with no college ball to evaluate.
I’m hoping this is exactly what happened, as it would be a way for LA to get a lotto-level big man at #25.
just playing devil's advocate.....why does a guy many experts rank fringe lottery agree to this? That is potentially leaving millions of dollars on the table over the rookie contract.
You make a good point.
I honestly haven’t been paying much attention to the draft this year, as I think there’s a 50/50 chance that we get Lebron and the pick gets moved to offload Deng/re-sign Randle, but both of the mocks I’ve looked at (ESPN and SI) have had us taking Robinson at 25 for a few weeks, so I hadn’t thought of him as being on the fringe of the lotto at this point.
I know you pay close attention to the draft. Are there other mocks that have him going substantially higher ? He seems like a guy that GMs would be leery of taking in the lotto, given his history.
If his team doesn’t think he’d go too much higher than 25, maybe they think LA is the best fit for him in terms of roster needs, development potential/PT and the overall youth on the team pointing towards a slow build if we don’t land Lebron ?
What I don’t understand is if a team made you a promise, why you would jeopardize that by confirming it on social media. That does nobody any favors. The fact that this dude retweeted and liked lakers stuff tells me it’s a bs promise.
College-age kids do dumb stuff. You wouldn’t expect someone to upload Swaggy talking about the girls he’s juggling on Snapchat, but it happened. We were all young and dumb once upon a time, so I could see him liking those tweets without thinking about the consequences.
But how bad are those consequences anyway ? No GM is going to take him before 25 if he won’t workout for them.
Due to his unique circumstances, everyone in the NBA could know that the Lakers are picking him and no GM will take him, as it’s a surefire way to get fired if he busts and you took him without ever seeing him workout or interviewing him. A GM would literally be asking to get fired if they did that.
One player I like for our #47 pick is Malik Newman.
He is a legit shooter with ball handling ability and speed. I know that there are some defensive shortcomings and he doesn’t have the best physical measurements but I really like what I see from him offensively.
Curious to hear other people’s thoughts since I really havent seen him discussed. I’ve seen people advocate for Aaron Holliday, but to be honest I’d much rather wait a round and grab this guy instead.
RE: Ayton and Bagley: Is it possible these guys dog it on defense just to minimize injury risk? I recall Ben Simmons getting dogged for his defense at LSU and this season he looked like a future All-Defense player. Lonzo was also projected to be a huge liability on D...
Millions of dollars hangs in the balance for these guys. Maybe they're just being careful? Or are NCAA coaches just not spending a lot of time on it?
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 2:09 am Post subject:
pjiddy wrote:
RE: Ayton and Bagley: Is it possible these guys dog it on defense just to minimize injury risk? I recall Ben Simmons getting dogged for his defense at LSU and this season he looked like a future All-Defense player. Lonzo was also projected to be a huge liability on D...
Millions of dollars hangs in the balance for these guys. Maybe they're just being careful? Or are NCAA coaches just not spending a lot of time on it?
Both weren't remarkable on defense in HS. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
RE: Ayton and Bagley: Is it possible these guys dog it on defense just to minimize injury risk? I recall Ben Simmons getting dogged for his defense at LSU and this season he looked like a future All-Defense player. Lonzo was also projected to be a huge liability on D...
Millions of dollars hangs in the balance for these guys. Maybe they're just being careful? Or are NCAA coaches just not spending a lot of time on it?
Both weren't remarkable on defense in HS.
And Ayton doesn't look good in a stance on the perimeter - Bagley does so I'm more willing to believe in his defensive potential
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
I have a hard time understanding why it’s accepted that JJJ can guard on the perimeter but not Bagley. That’s where the groupthink theory holds a lot of water. Both fluid athletes, both showed potential to be able to do it in college yet 1 guy is better cause he’s a better shot blocker? I don’t buy it.
I understand the questions around Aytons perimeter D although I think they are a little overblown.
RE: Ayton and Bagley: Is it possible these guys dog it on defense just to minimize injury risk? I recall Ben Simmons getting dogged for his defense at LSU and this season he looked like a future All-Defense player. Lonzo was also projected to be a huge liability on D...
Millions of dollars hangs in the balance for these guys. Maybe they're just being careful? Or are NCAA coaches just not spending a lot of time on it?
Neither, they were misjudged. Sometimes incorrect assessments become commonly accepted by the masses. Simmons was a little lazy on that side on occasion but the potential was always obvious. Lonzo showed elite defensive awareness and was the best on ball defender on his team. Sometimes people see what they want.
Worse defense than Okafor? Okafor seems to be lack of effort/motor. Is this true of Ayton and Bagley or just lack of having proper training on defensive concepts? I feel most bigs normally get away with height/athleticism in high school and never learn proper fundamentals and don't receive enough repetitions in college.
Don't watch Philly. Do they run their offense through Embid or Simmons? Why does the offense have to be run through Ayton and Bagley? I prefer bigs who are both an outside/inside presence vs a Capela or Gobert. Gobert just happens to be an all-world defender upping his value significantly.
I always think back to LBJ and how efficient he is. He is not a particularly great perimeter player but just so efficient in every other offensive skill set. By perimeter I mean 3pt shots.
Here's an all-in-one stat developed by Jacob Goldstein, Player Impact Plus Minus (PIPM), that he applied to college players going back to 2010 so far. Among bigs drafted top-10 or currently projected to be drafted top-10, Markkanen, Ayton, and Bagley were the only bigs to register a negative D-PIPM: Twitter linkage.
Obviously the data isn't age adjusted, but there are a number of 19 and 20 year olds on that list who weren't nearly as physically gifted as Ayton and Bagley along with physically gifted young bigs who had motor and awareness issues in college (Chriss and Vonleh) and all of them had a positive defensive impact in college. It's hard to be that big and coordinated and not have a positive defensive impact in college.
While it's only one metric, and it doesn't have a super high correlation between college and NBA performance, it should be a little concerning that two bigs projected as top-3 picks were so outlier poor on defense compared to their peers.
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
It really is a good point and something that makes one think. I do think Ayton is relatively "safe" as a player that won't bust--he has far more physical tools than a guy like Okafor, for example--but it's worth asking the question how far a player like that can take you, for the reasons that you and others have talked about. But if you're a team like Phoenix, or Sacto, wouldn't just getting better be of major help? Maybe there's a case to be made that if Ayton helps your franchise get better and win more games, you gladly take that and then deal with the potential consequences of him not being ideal to be on the court at the end of playoff games, should you eventually get back to the playoffs. Of course, the same things could apply to regular season games, but I think it's more pronounced in the playoffs in a 7-game series where coaches can specifically game plan and adjust.
I've wondered whether the opportunity cost of drafting DeMarcus Cousins hurt the Kings more than the complete whiff on Thomas Robinson. It would probably be too difficult to parse given all the other terrible moves the franchise made to build around DMC, and he did return good value in trade versus TRob just fading away, but all of the money and time spent trying to build around a ball dominant big man with questionable defensive motor and instincts may have been better spent (in a vacuum) trading him for additional assets and tanking for primary initiators (or just drafting Lillard instead of TRob in 2012).
Beyond the Wiggins effect, there's something to be said for trading down to amass more lottery tickets. If the Suns take Doncic, why not dangle Ayton to the Mavs, Magic, or Bulls and try to extract a 2019 or 2020 pick from them? Vlade doesn't have to just take Ayton if he thinks his flaws may make him nothing more than a token starter on a future playoff team - he can leverage overzealous GMs for more lottery chances at a potentially better young player while still picking up someone who could be useful for 35 mpg in a playoff series like Miles Bridges.
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
I have a hard time understanding why it’s accepted that JJJ can guard on the perimeter but not Bagley. That’s where the groupthink theory holds a lot of water. Both fluid athletes, both showed potential to be able to do it in college yet 1 guy is better cause he’s a better shot blocker? I don’t buy it.
I understand the questions around Aytons perimeter D although I think they are a little overblown.
If my kid is getting Cs in his first two years of high school and your kid is getting all As, but my boy wears nerdier glasses than your little girl, that doesn't mean he has the same potential to get into Harvard as her.
Past performance does matter. Players show you who they are on the court. And yes, shooting has been shown to be more improvable than defense.
Sure, but not to the level of NBA Draft Twitter....I was all in on Jontay a few weeks ago being late 1st Rounder.....still was when he ascended to a late-mid 1st Rounder.....then each day without nothing changing, NBA Draft Twitter keeps nudging him up hoping for some elusive virtual claim they are smarter than everyone else.....now he has been deemed a lottery selection worthy by many? Come on....guy showed up at the combine with man boobs and could barely jump over a telephone book.
It gets worse every year, and missing on Mitchell last year has only seemed to ignite their fury to locate the less than obvious player. Bagley and Ayton were Consensus first-team All-American's and have dominated the game at every single level they have competed.....but they're for the layman and commoners because clearly Jaren Jackson Jr. who averaged 4 Points and 6 Rebounds in the NCAA Tournament is far superior?
I know I am probably being a little dickish, but it only seems to get worse every year where it was once admirable original thought to where it is now more overthinking to a desperate level. It is pretty simple....find guys that can help your team score buckets and prevent the other team from scoring buckets.....and the more they have did this is the past, the more likely they will do it in the future.
I suspect that a large percentage of draft twitter don’t actually watch full games of prospects. Narratives about players develop and then groupthink takes hold.
That said, there are advanced metrics that tell us that bagley and Ayton weren’t dominating as much as you are advertising, as their defensive impact was negative. Those numbers can be backed up through film. It’s not some flaw of draft twitter to hone in on negative defense - it can help avoid situations like Jahlil Okafor as an example. There is a reason that draft twitter hones in on a lot of diamonds in the rough/late first type prospects, it’s not just dumb luck that Kevin Huerter for example was first talked about by draft twitter before the rest of draft coverage caught up a month later.
We've watched an entire playoffs where bigs without the ability to defend the perimeter have stood out for all the wrong reasons, but it's hipster stupidity to wonder if two college bigs who fit that same description should be ranked so highly.
I have a hard time understanding why it’s accepted that JJJ can guard on the perimeter but not Bagley. That’s where the groupthink theory holds a lot of water. Both fluid athletes, both showed potential to be able to do it in college yet 1 guy is better cause he’s a better shot blocker? I don’t buy it.
I understand the questions around Aytons perimeter D although I think they are a little overblown.
I do think JJJ looks slow on the perimeter , while Bagley is an athletic specimen speed/quicks wise .. .. I could put Bagley over JJJ. JJJ gon protect the rim though
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