Where do Laker rookies go in a re-draft today?
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trablos
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:54 am    Post subject: Re: Where do Laker rookies go in a re-draft today?

Fortysixn2 wrote:
Lakers4Life33 wrote:
I think we all share the same sentiment that regardless what you think of Magic and Pelinka, these two absolutely nailed this year's draft and maximized the pick at every spot. Ignoring fit and going straight off BPA, here's where I think our 3 guys go in a re-draft at this moment in time:

1) Lonzo Ball
2) Jayson Tatum
3) Donavan Mitchell
4) Lauri Markkenen
5) Markelle Fultz(wildcard)
6) Kyle Kuzma
7) Dennis Smith Jr
8) Jonathan Isaac
9) Frank Ntilikina
10) DeAaron Fox
11) OG Anunoby
12) John Collins
13) Jordan Bell
14) Josh Hart

For reference, here's a link to the actual draft results: http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_final_draft/2017

Crazy to think that we genuinely got 3 lotto talents, and 3 surefire solid starters or better in the same draft. Feeling great about our future regardless of 2018 free agency


I think it’s be

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Ball
4) Markkennen
5) Kuzma
6) DSJ
7) Fultz
8) Fox

I don’t think Josh Hart would move. This isn’t how I rank them really, but Ball has not shot well and most of the world doesn’t know what an amazing defender he is due to MSM BS, most people out of LA think he’s a bust right now honestly.

With Fultz, there is a video posted today of him shooting...he totally lost his form, he has had a total mental meltdown since being drafted. His whole “injury” thing I think was a cover, I don’t think he was or is injured...someone more and kind of depressing:scary is going on with him. He may end up being one of those weird NBA trivia questions...”What player Who went first in the NBA draft played the fewest games in the NBA” type of thing. I don’t think Fultz is even a lottery pick in a redraft right now.
What makes you say that?
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:43 am    Post subject:

Have to agree, the FO knocked it out of the park in the draft.
Lonzo has a good case for no 1.
Kuzma was a steal.
Hart was a solid choice.

Haven't seen the Lakers draft this smart since Kobe. And of course Magic.

Magic and Pelinka seem to know their stuff.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:16 pm    Post subject:

Runway8 wrote:
BynumForThree wrote:
Tatum and Mitchell are in a tier of their own. Lonzo's offense is still a big question mark right now. He's in the next tier with Markk, DSJ, Frank and Fultz.


SMH. Nobody is so good that they're on a tier of their own. Mitchell is doing well, but it's not like we haven't seen something like him before. He's a dime a dozen. And when it's all said and done, how many tweener two guards end up in the history books? Steve Francis, Monta Ellis, Gilbert Arenas, etc. They all fizzle out man. You can also find similar active players in Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, CJ McCollum, etc. The only tweener scoring guard that is of any significance off the top of my head, that I have seen play in my life, is 6'3 Joe Dumars. Maybe DM is carving something out for himself, and will force us to ask down the line, "Who is the next Donovan Mitchell? Maybe, but history is not on his side.

Lonzo can't shoot efficiently right now, but he ain't a dime a dozen. He's special. I don't know what to make of Tatum really. He has the luxury of just fitting in, and apparently, when he's open he knocks down shots. Is he a scoring monster in the making who can carry his own squad? I dunno, maybe. The way BI has been progressing, I don't feel we missed out on Tatum.

In my books, it's gotta be Lonzo and Tatum at the top 2.

Repost:

To me Tatum appears to be on a Kawhi/George trajectory offensively, and the question will be where will he eventually fall on the continuum between the two when it comes to shot efficiency. Like George and Leonard, I see Tatum becoming only an adequate distributor, so his effectiveness as a primary option will come disproportionately from his shot-making: is he still a .600 TS% guy as his usage goes up? PG13 level defense with Kawhi level offense and he'll be a top-10 guy at least.

I think Ball has the higher ceiling because his passing skills and court awareness are so outlier, but he has more work to do to mitigate his weaknesses than Tatum to approach that (higher) ceiling.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:30 pm    Post subject:

Runway8 wrote:

And when it's all said and done, how many tweener two guards end up in the history books? Steve Francis, Monta Ellis, Gilbert Arenas, etc. They all fizzle out man. You can also find similar active players in Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, CJ McCollum, etc. The only tweener scoring guard that is of any significance off the top of my head, that I have seen play in my life, is 6'3 Joe Dumars. Maybe DM is carving something out for himself, and will force us to ask down the line, "Who is the next Donovan Mitchell? Maybe, but history is not on his side.


No love for Allen Iverson or are you considering him a PG?
Gilbert Arenas was 6'3, though obviously not on the level of AI or Joe Dumars?
Chauncy Billups could switch between the 1 and the 2. He was 6'3?
DWade is only 6'4?

Unless you're talking about players you have literally seen player in person, live. Tweener gets to be an odd label in my estimation when you're discussing guards. I think as a definition it works better with post players.

Also I love me some Josh Hart but to say he is lottery levels of talent is giving him a little bit too much love. He landed pretty much where he should have in the draft. I'd still draft Lonzo with our highest pick and Kuzma is lottery talent on his scoring ability alone.
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AFireInside619
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:57 pm    Post subject:

Right Now:
(My perceived national consensus)
Tatum
Mitchell
DSJ
Lauri
Kuz
Ball
Fox
Fultz
Isaac

5 Years From Now:
Ball
Kuzma
Tatum
Mitchell
(And the rest I don't care to speculate)
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:58 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
pio2u wrote:
I don't know about the order but I do believe that we have 3 of the top 15 rookies. Plus IMO T. Bryant probably would be in the top 35.

The FO knocked it out the park!


The FO knocked it out of the park the last 3-4 years. Credit to our scouting department, that is one Buss we should probably keep.


I agree. Our college scouting has been fantastic and he's a keeper, unlike several half siblings.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:10 pm    Post subject:

I assume GM's are paying much more attention than most fans and analysts. If you took this question to public vote among the press and fans, Lonzo might indeed drop down beneath Kuzma and would be lucky to make the top 10. I've never seen more bb ignorance from the general public and major press outlets towards a player.

Assuming GM's as a whole are actually astute and paying attention:

1 Lonzo Ball - easily
2 Tatum
3 Kuzma
4 Mitchell
5 DSJ

Fox, Fultz, Markkenen still somewhere in the top 10

And I think Hart would slide into the mid teens as well.


Give it 2 years, ask this question again!
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:41 pm    Post subject:

Top 3 who is always on the NBA's 2018 Rookie Ladder radar (minus Ben Simmons) are:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Kuzma

Those 3 are always on the ladder. But I don't think Kuzma will be a 3rd pick in a redraft. GM's like 19-20 year olds, Kuzma is 22 so he probably would be around top 5 highest just based on that.

So Tatum and Mitchel should be 1 and 2 based on their rookie ladder rankings.

So a redraft as a non-Laker fans consensus might look like:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Markkenen
4) Fultz (dreams)
5) Kuzma
6) Smith
7) Ball
8) Fox
9) Jackson
10) Isaacs

Numbers 5 through 7 between Kuzma, Smith, Ball could probably switch up either way. Again, trying to look at this from a non-Lakers fan POV.

Only reason I have Lonzo this low compared to Lakers fans in this board is because most media writer and fans outside of the Lakers don't put Lonzo as high as we do. Most still think Lonzo might be a bust. Even an opposing team's GM had stated they never had Lonzo in their top 5 board to begin with. Most only talk about his shooting struggles constantly, and of course his dad. They don't know anything else, they don't even know how good he is on defense and that his shot is steadily improving.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:01 pm    Post subject:

Nashlight wrote:
Top 3 who is always on the NBA's 2018 Rookie Ladder radar (minus Ben Simmons) are:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Kuzma

Those 3 are always on the ladder. But I don't think Kuzma will be a 3rd pick in a redraft. GM's like 19-20 year olds, Kuzma is 22 so he probably would be around top 5 highest just based on that.

So Tatum and Mitchel should be 1 and 2 based on their rookie ladder rankings.

So a redraft as a non-Laker fans consensus might look like:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Markkenen
4) Fultz (dreams)
5) Kuzma
6) Smith
7) Ball
8) Fox
9) Jackson
10) Isaacs

Numbers 5 through 7 between Kuzma, Smith, Ball could probably switch up either way. Again, trying to look at this from a non-Lakers fan POV.

Only reason I have Lonzo this low compared to Lakers fans in this board is because most media writer and fans outside of the Lakers don't put Lonzo as high as we do. Most still think Lonzo might be a bust. Most only talk about his shooting struggles constantly, and also his dad. They don't know anything else, they don't even know how good he is on defense and that his shot is steadily improving.


I think your projection is fair....but my opinion is a little different. Mitchell is obviously the big lottery jumper going no lower than #2 or #3. Also, Kuzma and Hart would go higher...but it would be tempered by their age.

- so much would depend on the information about Fultz....if GM's are confident his injury is a short term issue, I think he still gets drafted #1. He was clearly in a tier of his own going into the draft.

- Mitchell & Tatum likely go 2nd & 3rd in a vacuum....but if it is the same teams, then Lakers likely still select Ball. In the recent CBS redraft...

Quote:
To me, probably every other team in the league would take Mitchell over Ball right now. Frankly, I don't think it would be close for most teams.
LINK


- 4th would be Dennis Smith Jr.

- 5th and 6th would likely be between Ball and Markkenen.

- 7th, 8th and 9th would likely be between Fox, Jackson and Isaac. Although Jackson has played poorly, he has been playing better lately....likewise Isaac has barely played...

- between 10th-15th is where I think Kuzma is considered. Hart in the 19-24 range.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:08 pm    Post subject:

OCWA wrote:
I saw some early redraft articles that had Lonzo out of top 10. The most recent I saw had him back at number 2.

I think in a few years a redraft would look like this.

1. Lonzo
2. Tatum
3. Mitchell
4. Markannen
5. Kuzma


One way to look at them currently:

Code:
           Production          OnCourt/OffCourt  Simple
Plyr Min   Own    Opp    Net    On   Off   Net   Rating
LB   58%   14.0   16.7  -2.6  -0.8  -8.0   7.3   0.7
JT   64%   19.5   12.7   6.8   6.7   2.9   3.8   5.8
DM   62%   19.8   20.1  -0.3  -1.3  -1.3   0.0  -0.2
LM   58%   18.8   17.9   0.9  -6.1  -5.0  -1.1   0.3
KK   63%   17.2   17.3  -0.1  -4.1  -3.2  -0.9  -0.4


At the moment, one does stand out by this measure in particular
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:21 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Nashlight wrote:
Top 3 who is always on the NBA's 2018 Rookie Ladder radar (minus Ben Simmons) are:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Kuzma

Those 3 are always on the ladder. But I don't think Kuzma will be a 3rd pick in a redraft. GM's like 19-20 year olds, Kuzma is 22 so he probably would be around top 5 highest just based on that.

So Tatum and Mitchel should be 1 and 2 based on their rookie ladder rankings.

So a redraft as a non-Laker fans consensus might look like:

1) Tatum
2) Mitchell
3) Markkenen
4) Fultz (dreams)
5) Kuzma
6) Smith
7) Ball
8) Fox
9) Jackson
10) Isaacs

Numbers 5 through 7 between Kuzma, Smith, Ball could probably switch up either way. Again, trying to look at this from a non-Lakers fan POV.

Only reason I have Lonzo this low compared to Lakers fans in this board is because most media writer and fans outside of the Lakers don't put Lonzo as high as we do. Most still think Lonzo might be a bust. Most only talk about his shooting struggles constantly, and also his dad. They don't know anything else, they don't even know how good he is on defense and that his shot is steadily improving.


I think your projection is fair....but my opinion is a little different. Mitchell is obviously the big lottery jumper going no lower than #2 or #3. Also, Kuzma and Hart would go higher...but it would be tempered by their age.

- so much would depend on the information about Fultz....if GM's are confident his injury is a short term issue, I think he still gets drafted #1. He was clearly in a tier of his own going into the draft.

- Mitchell & Tatum likely go 2nd & 3rd in a vacuum....but if it is the same teams, then Lakers likely still select Ball. In the recent CBS redraft...

Quote:
To me, probably every other team in the league would take Mitchell over Ball right now. Frankly, I don't think it would be close for most teams.
LINK


- 4th would be Dennis Smith Jr.

- 5th and 6th would likely be between Ball and Markkenen.

- 7th, 8th and 9th would likely be between Fox, Jackson and Isaac. Although Jackson has played poorly, he has been playing better lately....likewise Isaac has barely played...

- between 10th-15th is where I think Kuzma is considered. Hart in the 19-24 range.


Wasn’t true then, isn’t true now.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:33 pm    Post subject:

I like what I saw from Tatum, but I'm not sure how you cam measure his impact since he's playing for one of the best team in the NBA. Sure he's a part of their success, but would the Celtics drop that much if he wasn't there ? With Lonzo, at least we have the answer : we are 0-7 when he doesn't play, and the result on the floor is obvious, our offense AND defense become tragic...

Mitchell : he's a good one, but long term he'll probably be a CJ Miles or a Bradley Beal, that's good but he won't have the same impact.

Being objective (or at least trying to) I'd say top 3 :

Tatum
Ball
Mitchell
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:42 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
I assume GM's are paying much more attention than most fans and analysts. If you took this question to public vote among the press and fans, Lonzo might indeed drop down beneath Kuzma and would be lucky to make the top 10. I've never seen more bb ignorance from the general public and major press outlets towards a player.

Assuming GM's as a whole are actually astute and paying attention:

1 Lonzo Ball - easily
2 Tatum
3 Kuzma
4 Mitchell
5 DSJ

Fox, Fultz, Markkenen still somewhere in the top 10

And I think Hart would slide into the mid teens as well.


Give it 2 years, ask this question again!


I think you're correct in looking at this from a GM point of view, but you need to take it one step further. What is a GM really going to be looking at? Many of these players are 19 or 20. It will be a 1-3 years before we really know what they are going to be.

I think a GM would be looking at (1) how high the player's ceiling is, and (2) how likely they are to get there. To the extent that a player's performance as a rookie informs that judgment, it's useful. But some players are more NBA ready than others, and some players get better (or worse) opportunities than others.

With that in mind, I think Kuzma is rated way too high by a lot of the folks in this thread. He played three years of college and was more NBA ready than a lot of his peers. I think he is closer to his ceiling than the typical rookie. He got off to a good start, but his shooting percentage and rebounding average have both been declining. I would expect to see him go in the 10-15 range in a redraft. He might go a little higher.

Ball is hard to assess, because he is such an unusual player in this day and age. I can see how some GMs would take Tatum over him. I can also see how some GMs would prefer a more conventional player, like Mitchell. I could see Ball going anywhere from 1 to 5, depending on who is picking in what slot.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:44 pm    Post subject:

durden-tyler wrote:
I like what I saw from Tatum, but I'm not sure how you cam measure his impact since he's playing for one of the best team in the NBA. Sure he's a part of their success, but would the Celtics drop that much if he wasn't there ? With Lonzo, at least we have the answer : we are 0-7 when he doesn't play, and the result on the floor is obvious, our offense AND defense become tragic...



You also can't measure Tatum's impact because he hasn't missed any games, so you don't know how they do without him.

That said, I am not sure if that is a reliable way of evaluating a player, because it's an evaluation of the player's backup as much as of the player himself.

I mean, would Ball's impact be less if the Lakers traded for a better backup point guard tomorrow? Not really, though the team might perform better when Ball was out.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:47 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
Wasn’t true then, isn’t true now.


it was definitely true...you continuing to be offended by the fact is hilarious.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:50 pm    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
pio2u wrote:
I don't know about the order but I do believe that we have 3 of the top 15 rookies. Plus IMO T. Bryant probably would be in the top 35.

The FO knocked it out the park!


The FO knocked it out of the park the last 3-4 years. Credit to our scouting department, that is one Buss we should probably keep.


I agree. Our college scouting has been fantastic and he's a keeper, unlike several half siblings.


This. I know some wanna give all the praise to Magic and Pelinka but Jesse Buss and Ryan West and the rest of the scouting department have had some good drafts the past few years.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:55 pm    Post subject:

tnell wrote:
TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
pio2u wrote:
I don't know about the order but I do believe that we have 3 of the top 15 rookies. Plus IMO T. Bryant probably would be in the top 35.

The FO knocked it out the park!


The FO knocked it out of the park the last 3-4 years. Credit to our scouting department, that is one Buss we should probably keep.


I agree. Our college scouting has been fantastic and he's a keeper, unlike several half siblings.


This. I know some wanna give all the praise to Magic and Pelinka but Jesse Buss and Ryan West and the rest of the scouting department have had some good drafts the past few years.


true...but if we are being fair....they appear to have not changed something that was working...and that is an important decision itself
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:39 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
Wasn’t true then, isn’t true now.


it was definitely true...you continuing to be offended by the fact is hilarious.


The incredible arrogance of the Fultz supporters annoys me, doesn’t offend me. Especially with how the year has unfolded so far. The only understandable reason for it is confirmation bias and good ol fashion stubbornness. Lonzo and Tatum were and are the best prospects from the draft.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:43 pm    Post subject:

As great as Tatum is it's clear to me Ball will have a much bigger impact. It's not even close actually.

Ball
Tatum
Mitch
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:44 pm    Post subject:

Lonzo under Brad Stevens?? LOOOK OUT!
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:48 pm    Post subject:

On a do over, I'd take Tatum over Lonzo in a heart beat. I had
him there but followed the crowd with Lonzo at the end.

We move on...
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:51 pm    Post subject:

deal wrote:
On a do over, I'd take Tatum over Lonzo in a heart beat. I had
him there but followed the crowd with Lonzo at the end.

We move on...


I disagree but can understand that. Leading up to the draft I would’ve been disappointed but not mad if they took Tatum over Lonzo. Anybody else I would’ve been pissed. I feel the same way now.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:30 pm    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
adkindo wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
Wasn’t true then, isn’t true now.


it was definitely true...you continuing to be offended by the fact is hilarious.


The incredible arrogance of the Fultz supporters annoys me, doesn’t offend me. Especially with how the year has unfolded so far. The only understandable reason for it is confirmation bias and good ol fashion stubbornness. Lonzo and Tatum were and are the best prospects from the draft.

Fultz and Ball were the best prospects from the draft and still are, imo, unless Fultz's shooting issues persist and/or Tatum takes a leap as a playmaker. The goal at the top of the draft should be to find a #1 guy, and of the three, coming out of the draft, who would you project as the most likely to become a #1 guy?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:17 pm    Post subject:

Snipes wrote:
As great as Tatum is it's clear to me Ball will have a much bigger impact. It's not even close actually.

Ball
Tatum
Mitch


Tatum is running equatorial circles around Lonzo.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:31 pm    Post subject:

rogers49 wrote:
Snipes wrote:
As great as Tatum is it's clear to me Ball will have a much bigger impact. It's not even close actually.

Ball
Tatum
Mitch


Tatum is running equatorial circles around Lonzo.

Ok.
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