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| Assuming a 4 year standard increase deal, no options, how much of a starting offer for JR would you match this July? |
| The Max, $25 Mill |
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11% |
[ 19 ] |
| $22 Mill |
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1% |
[ 3 ] |
| $20 Mill |
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11% |
[ 19 ] |
| $18 Mill |
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26% |
[ 45 ] |
| $16 Mill |
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28% |
[ 48 ] |
| $14 Mill |
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11% |
[ 20 ] |
| $12 Mill |
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4% |
[ 7 ] |
| Would not match any offer |
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3% |
[ 6 ] |
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| Total Votes : 167 |
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Chronicle
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 Posted: Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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Who ruined the page
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Wilkes52
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:34 am Post subject: |
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To me, the offer is more a tactical than a strategic decision. Strategically, Randle seems unlikely to be the focal piece of this franchise, so max monies are out unless one wants to pay him a one year deal. He'll be seeking as much money as he can obtain. Can an initial offer of $17M or so be made to convince him to return and not seek just $2M more per year elsewhere ? Probably not. Is there a range (scale) constraining the club by the bargaining agreement for a guy of his experience ?
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LandsbergerRules
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:58 am Post subject: |
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I'm curious what kind of offers he'll get from other teams. Aren't most teams enamored with bigs who can stretch the defense these days?
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:00 am Post subject: |
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I kept jules on a 5 year deal (5th year player option) for 15m/year on nba 2k. 
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parsons777
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:17 am Post subject: |
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| Chronicle wrote: | | Who ruined the page |
It's fixed now.
Looks like a Bell curve around $16 Mill, with a decent number of Max's. |
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:44 am Post subject: |
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I went with $22m. But it pains me to do so. My somewhat "realistic" hope is in the 4yr/$70m range.
It will be interesting to see what his actual value and offers will end up being on the open market. That is the key. what will the market dictate? If it climbs over $20m I think the Lakers are compelled to match.
Young man is 23 years old. Only three seasons of experience. And just keeps getting better and better. No doubt he has some weaknesses. If he didn't he would be getting max money offers by multiple teams like the all star he would be.
I prefer looking at the things he does well instead of those he doesn't. His energy on both ends and ability to rebound and push the ball are key to what the Lakers are trying to become. His "bully ball" style adds to the Laker overall attack.
IMO a foundation player that needs to remain a Laker. Even if his market value pushes him into the role of one of the "max" contracts so lovingly coveted. |
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:52 am Post subject: |
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Biggest mistake for a rebuilding team is to overpay. You end up with guys like Carmelo and Blake Griffin.
Randle is at best a Blake Griffin type of player. He's not worth 20+. |
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MJST
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| LandsbergerRules wrote: | | I'm curious what kind of offers he'll get from other teams. Aren't most teams enamored with bigs who can stretch the defense these days? |
I think 20/10/4 on 55% from the field before he even has a jump shot while being 4 years away from his prime is another thing I'd find teams would be enamored with.
| LakerLogic wrote: | Biggest mistake for a rebuilding team is to overpay. You end up with guys like Carmelo and Blake Griffin.
Randle is at best a Blake Griffin type of player. He's not worth 20+. |
If THAT was Randle's upside while keeping his mentality he'd very much be worth 20+ tbh.
If Randle's upside was Blake Griffin that rebounded and could defend all 5 positions he would most definitely be worth 20+ million and we'd be laughed at for not maxing him.
Blake Griffin's biggest problems were his rebounding and lack of want to play defense despite his athleticism and being considered soft.
Randle is the antithesis of Blake in those regards thus far.
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:05 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLogic wrote: | Biggest mistake for a rebuilding team is to overpay. You end up with guys like Carmelo and Blake Griffin.
Randle is at best a Blake Griffin type of player. He's not worth 20+. |
I would be thrilled if/when Randle is a Griffin like player. Multiple year all-star and cornerstone player. He was a key part of the Clipper resurgence. I'd like to see the Lakers have multiple 50 win seasons and be considered contenders before so easily dismissing key young players.
Lakers need to decide to grow with what they have and establish some consistency of roster and coaches. To build chemistry and stability.
Or they can continue to chase after the marquee players year after year and hope a quick fix super Team is built. I'm skeptical it works.
Continuing to develop the young players is a better risk IMO. Too bad the FO keeps alienating young players with the "you are not valuable because you are not James" type rhetoric. Not really gong to be able to create any player loyalty or sign team friendly deals that way. |
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:21 am Post subject: |
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At the same age, similar rebounder and Griffin was a better defender.
I like Randle but he's not worth 20+. I'll be surprised if he gets an offer for that much.
To even reach Blake's level, he needs to become a shooter. About his 4th/5th season, Blake made a big jump in shooting. We'll see if Randle does the same. |
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ringfinger
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:39 am Post subject: |
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It’s hard to put a cap and I think it really depends on other factors.
If I cap at $16M does that mean I would not go $16.01M? I probably would. But you can go in 0.01 increments to infinity.
So i want to say $16M is my cap but if it takes $16.5M to do it, I probably do. |
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Sentient Meat
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:40 am Post subject: |
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His actual value I'd say is about 15-16
That makes you paid as 60 to 70th best player... and a lot of players in that region were overpaid from that Deng/Mozgov era.
Draymond 16.4
Tristan Thompson 16.5
Pau Gasol 16
Valanciunas 15.4
Thaddeus Young 15
Iguodala 14.8
I think if he develops the midrange or three and continues to improve he becomes an 18-20 million... maybe even a max... but he must do that to justify that type of investment.
If you don't land the two maxes it might be worth paying him more if they believe he will continue to improve and won't slack off just because he gets the big contract... but only the insiders and FO know that.
Also it depends if there exists a combination of better available agents where you'd get more for your money... (ie two ten million players who have the upside to get to where Randle is)
Sentimentally, I'd like to keep him... but I think you'd need to know if the FO believes he has the commitment to keep growing at the level he's been improving. |
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scoobs
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | There's a big contingency in that it depends on how we do in free agency. My ceiling is higher if they score LBJ and PG this summer because that is a team you can roll forward with. Otherwise, you don't want to limit your options beyond with an overpaid Randle taking up too much cap-space.
Hypothetically, if we signed only PG this summer and no other long-term deals, we can still pursue Kawhi/Klay/Kyrie next summer as long as Randle is making no more than $18 million. Without a crystal ball, I'd say that's as far as I'd go. Ideally I'd prefer we also fit a long time warm-up starter at center into that slot. |
If thats the case. then I would give him no more than 18 million. Unfortunately, we jeopardize loosing him to someone like Dallas, but maybe not. |
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scoobs
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| If we could just get him signed, we could always entertain trading him (and others) after December 15th, like to San Antonio for Leonard. |
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Sentient Meat
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:48 am Post subject: |
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| scoobs wrote: | | If we could just get him signed, we could always entertain trading him (and others) after December 15th, like to San Antonio for Leonard. |
The key is to sign him at a moveable figure. If you signed him at 15 it would be easy to move... if you signed him at 20 per it would become more difficult. |
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El Seano
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:49 am Post subject: |
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I wanna preface this by saying I really like Julius and always have, I'm as attached to him as I am to anybody we drafted since the picks got high (so basically starting with Julius).
I voted $18 million as the highest I could go. If he puts a gun to my head then I'd maybe go to $20 million. If somebody offers him the max then I pat him on the shoulder and tell him not to spend it all in one place.
Looking at that list of players that got the max recently they are pretty much all better than Julius with the exceptions of Barnes, Porter and Adams.
Jules isn't a max player. He's a very good, young player and I think he could well be a max player by his next contract if he carries on his trajectory. I see him as a 20/10 player with some playmaking ability, he's already gotten 2 or 3 triple doubles in 3 seasons. I don't even think he needs to add a 3 ball really just a serviceable jumper.
I love what I've seen from him this year but I haven't seen enough previously to make me go "okay we just cannot let this kid go, no matter the cost". You have to be cautious with every players performances in a contract year, they can always be fools gold. I've seen enough this year to make him very well paid to stay with us but not enough to pay him a max.
If he does what his per 36 suggests this season over the course of his next contract then I'll pay him the max the second I was allowed to and honestly I believe that to be a very, very plausible possibility. His time will come but not in this decade. |
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governator
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| Randle’s contract would set the bar for BI’s and the younger guys when their turn come up. Up to $16mil/yr with team option in the last yr is fair for both parties |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:54 am Post subject: |
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Why match, instead offer. Don’t be Donald Sterling.
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Four Decade Bandwagon
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:56 am Post subject: |
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| LakerLogic wrote: | At the same age, similar rebounder and Griffin was a better defender.
I like Randle but he's not worth 20+. I'll be surprised if he gets an offer for that much.
To even reach Blake's level, he needs to become a shooter. About his 4th/5th season, Blake made a big jump in shooting. We'll see if Randle does the same. |
You may not believe he is worth it but the market will decide his value. Look at last year's free agency of similar aged/situations for comparison. Porter, Holiday both over $25M. contracts. Go back a year and Beal and Drummond over $25M. Consider Hardaway Jr. , Crabbe, H. Barnes, Fournier or even or KCP in the $17-$23M range. Even vets like Horford, Milsap, Hayward, George and Griffin are $30M plus. All could be argued "not worth it" IMO.
Emerging young talent costs. Tough decision to define that line in the sand. Alternative is to continue shopping for value, drafting well or going all in for established talent and limited roster depth. All have risks. IMO Randle is worth that risk at 23years old and improving. More importantly he fits into what they are creating. |
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gng930
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | I went with $22m. But it pains me to do so. My somewhat "realistic" hope is in the 4yr/$70m range.
It will be interesting to see what his actual value and offers will end up being on the open market. That is the key. what will the market dictate? If it climbs over $20m I think the Lakers are compelled to match.
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Matching Julius at that rate takes us out of the running for a 2nd max free agent if it doesn't happen this summer. So do we think our current core with 1 max free agent ever gives us a window on contention? I'm not ready to say that. OTOH, our current core with 2 max FAs is something I'm on board with. If we score LBJ and PG, I'm tempted to match him at 20+ as well.
Interesting thing to note if we only get PG this summer. Let's say we sign him at 4 years @ $80 million. If it's structured as 20/18.4/20/21.6, we still have enough to pursue Kawhi/Klay/Kyrie in 2019 assuming a cap estimate of $108 million
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MJST
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LakerLogic
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | LakerLogic wrote: | At the same age, similar rebounder and Griffin was a better defender.
I like Randle but he's not worth 20+. I'll be surprised if he gets an offer for that much.
To even reach Blake's level, he needs to become a shooter. About his 4th/5th season, Blake made a big jump in shooting. We'll see if Randle does the same. |
You may not believe he is worth it but the market will decide his value. Look at last year's free agency of similar aged/situations for comparison. Porter, Holiday both over $25M. contracts. Go back a year and Beal and Drummond over $25M. Consider Hardaway Jr. , Crabbe, H. Barnes, Fournier or even or KCP in the $17-$23M range. Even vets like Horford, Milsap, Hayward, George and Griffin are $30M plus. All could be argued "not worth it" IMO.
Emerging young talent costs. Tough decision to define that line in the sand. Alternative is to continue shopping for value, drafting well or going all in for established talent and limited roster depth. All have risks. IMO Randle is worth that risk at 23years old and improving. More importantly he fits into what they are creating. |
And the market gave Mozgov and Deng those contracts. That doesn't mean its the right value. Different FA market. Again the reason why teams like Ws are so dominant was because they were fortunate to have Curry on a reasonable contract while getting max value. I don't really care what most teams do, only the successful ones. Overpaying can make or break a franchise. I'd probably offer him around 16, maybe go up to 18. Not sure if the Lakers would go that high. |
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Sentient Meat
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| Four Decade Bandwagon wrote: | | LakerLogic wrote: | At the same age, similar rebounder and Griffin was a better defender.
I like Randle but he's not worth 20+. I'll be surprised if he gets an offer for that much.
To even reach Blake's level, he needs to become a shooter. About his 4th/5th season, Blake made a big jump in shooting. We'll see if Randle does the same. |
You may not believe he is worth it but the market will decide his value. Look at last year's free agency of similar aged/situations for comparison. Porter, Holiday both over $25M. contracts. Go back a year and Beal and Drummond over $25M. Consider Hardaway Jr. , Crabbe, H. Barnes, Fournier or even or KCP in the $17-$23M range. Even vets like Horford, Milsap, Hayward, George and Griffin are $30M plus. All could be argued "not worth it" IMO.
Emerging young talent costs. Tough decision to define that line in the sand. Alternative is to continue shopping for value, drafting well or going all in for established talent and limited roster depth. All have risks. IMO Randle is worth that risk at 23years old and improving. More importantly he fits into what they are creating. |
I think at what price you can trade him determines his value... if you sign someone for 25 and no one will ever take him then you overpaid.
Otherwise it's like buying an antique on ebay for 100 dollars and then when you resell it you can't get 60. You can say it was worth a 100 dollars but it's only worth 60. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:05 am Post subject: |
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Winning teams don’t let young players that they have spent years developing walk for nothing. Losing teams do that.
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Last edited by venturalakersfan on Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:07 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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audioaxes
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| Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:19 am Post subject: |
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I would not break the bank for him. Talented player for sure but a scoring PF with no jumpshot or interior defense is simply not something you can put alot of chips in if you are building a championship roster.
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