What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:17 am    Post subject: What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?

I’m assuming it’s 5-6 years then the young core takes over after that, depending on how long LeBron is affective we could be looking at a nice run.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:28 am    Post subject: Re: What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?

Inspector Gadget wrote:
I’m assuming it’s 5-6 years then the young core takes over after that, depending on how long LeBron is affective we could be looking at a nice run.


If it's handled well, you are a contender for many years like the Spurs.

People that don't want LeBron are looking at it the wrong way... you don't look at him like you would a star in their prime... you look at him as a catalyst to jump start our playoff chances. Assuming huge personality clashes don't develop... and I think despite our worries... you can't argue with LeBron's results for the most part. He gets even average to almost poor teams in the playoffs. This means next year we are in the playoffs and with PG and no injuries, we automatically become a dark horse contender.

By the time he retires, the core is in their prime, and it's merely a question of personnel management and making sure you keep the right pieces while discarding the difficult or ineffective ones.

The only way we blow it, is if we sign him for long term and he has a catastrophic injury like Kobe. But this could happen with Kawhi or AD as well. As long as we don't do the charity thing like we did with Kobe and sign him again after he's no longer great for too much money... we should be fine.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:29 am    Post subject:

Le Bron and PG, I think it depends on what other vets we can bring on.....but I would say if everything broke pretty well 4-6 years
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:30 am    Post subject: Re: What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?

Sentient Meat wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
I’m assuming it’s 5-6 years then the young core takes over after that, depending on how long LeBron is affective we could be looking at a nice run.


If it's handled well, you are a contender for many years like the Spurs.

People that don't want LeBron are looking at it the wrong way... you don't look at him like you would a star in their prime... you look at him as a catalyst to jump start our playoff chances. Assuming huge personality clashes don't develop... and I think despite our worries... you can't argue with LeBron's results for the most part. He gets even average to almost poor teams in the playoffs. This means next year we are in the playoffs and with PG and no injuries, we automatically become a dark horse contender.

By the time he retires, the core is in their prime, and it's merely a question of personnel management and making sure you keep the right pieces while discarding the difficult or ineffective ones.

The only way we blow it, is if we sign him for long term and he has a catastrophic injury like Kobe. But this could happen with Kawhi or AD as well. As long as we don't do the charity thing like we did with Kobe and sign him again after he's no longer great for too much money... we should be fine.


Good assessment
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:32 am    Post subject: Re: What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?

Inspector Gadget wrote:
I’m assuming it’s 5-6 years then the young core takes over after that, depending on how long LeBron is affective we could be looking at a nice run.


In the modern NBA, with most of the stars having early opt-outs in their contracts, I don't think you can look beyond three-year windows anymore.

For any teams, I wouldn't try to guess what members of their current roster would still be around in 5 to 6 years. Things change too much and too fast these days for that.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:35 am    Post subject:

Yeah, start with about a 3 year window.

If Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart take steps towards stardom as PG13/LBJ descend, then yeah, a longer window. If they are maxed out as more starter level (but not all star) players 3-4 years from now, yeah, not as long of a window. Remember these kids will have to be extended so the Lakers have to be judicious about who they see as core pieces going forward.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:37 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Yeah, start with about a 3 year window.

If Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart take steps towards stardom as PG13/LBJ descend, then yeah, a longer window. If they are maxed out as more starter level (but not all star) players 3-4 years from now, yeah, not as long of a window. Remember these kids will have to be extended so the Lakers have to be judicious about who they see as core pieces going forward.


Yep all depends on how our young core develops
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:31 am    Post subject:

It may be optimistic to assume “title contender” at all.

Still have quite a bit to prove in chemistry, development and overall roster fit, wouldnt they? Not so sure there is the seamless transition and patience being assumed.

Adding George and James to the current young roster obviously improves the team. If everything goes smoothly to what, 50 games? Maybe a 4th/5th seed? I’m thrilled with that. But are they making the Finals? I’m skeptical.

Will the style being played fit with James and George? Will James dominate the ball and sporadically choose to not play defense? Will they be patient if 3pt% is still low? If the team struggles who will be blamed and purged mid-season or after a early exit from the playoffs? Not James.

James will be year to year. Will they win a title in the next year or two? Not likely. Can he and the Lakers accept that he is a stepping stone to developing young players. Not likely.

Signing George might give them a better chance of patience. Signing James is an all in at all costs move to win immediately. Has he ever left a team “prepared” for a sustained run “like the Spurs” . Not even close.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:31 am    Post subject:

2 years
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:33 am    Post subject:

Do we keep Ingram, Ball. Randle, Kuzma and Hart too? If so, a decade. As Lebron fades, the other guys step up until he retires and they entirely take over. I figure Lebron has another year or two before he begins to drop significantly. The beauty of the youth + Lebron plan is that's all we need from him - a year or two.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:39 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Adding George and James to the current young roster obviously improves the team. If everything goes smoothly to what, 50 games? Maybe a 4th/5th seed? I’m thrilled with that. But are they making the Finals? I’m skeptical.


They would be a 55 win team at the minimum next year IMO. A team that had:

Lonzo/FA or draft
PG13/Hart
LBJ/BI
Jules/Kuz
Brook/Bryant

Let alone ring chasers. That would be a really good team. Then in 2019 we'd have a full MLE to add plus another full year of growth from our young fellas. Whoa.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:54 am    Post subject:

I can't estimate the window in a meaningful way without more information, such as:

- the contract lengths of PG, LJ. If either on a two year or less, then it's one of two year window only.
- supporting cast quality. If we sign castoffs and chattel to fill out the roster who can't shoot or defend, we've just reinvented the problem sets of the clubs presumably left behind by both Paul George and LeBron.
- Randle on board or not.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:59 am    Post subject: Re: What is actually our title window if we land PG + LeBron?

Sentient Meat wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
I’m assuming it’s 5-6 years then the young core takes over after that, depending on how long LeBron is affective we could be looking at a nice run.
If it's handled well, you are a contender for many years like the Spurs.

People that don't want LeBron are looking at it the wrong way... you don't look at him like you would a star in their prime... you look at him as a catalyst to jump start our playoff chances. Assuming huge personality clashes don't develop... and I think despite our worries... you can't argue with LeBron's results for the most part. He gets even average to almost poor teams in the playoffs. This means next year we are in the playoffs and with PG and no injuries, we automatically become a dark horse contender.

By the time he retires, the core is in their prime, and it's merely a question of personnel management and making sure you keep the right pieces while discarding the difficult or ineffective ones.

The only way we blow it, is if we sign him for long term and he has a catastrophic injury like Kobe. But this could happen with Kawhi or AD as well. As long as we don't do the charity thing like we did with Kobe and sign him again after he's no longer great for too much money... we should be fine.
Your observations are seemingly based on the assumption that Lebron will stay for more than one year. LBJ, as a very smart and savvy businessperson, has only been signing 1+1 contracts. We have seen numerous times in Laker history what happens if we get a collection of superstars and what it has been done to the detriment of continued high level of success

It should be noted that Lebron has not personally attracted any superstars.

If we lose Randle this year and Lebron after the next season, what would our prospects be. Is PG13 - a very talented player - The Man for the Lakers.

Imagine in 2-3 years that has a roster of BI, Ball, Kuz, Hart, Randle, Zubac and Bryant PLUS a key FA superstar(s)!! Hello Rings!!
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:06 am    Post subject:

3 years
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:11 am    Post subject:

It all depends on whether you think (1) we can sign Lebron and George while keeping Randle, and (2) the "young core" is going to develop into a title contender within a couple years. (1) is problematic, but (2) is the deeper problem. Two years from now, we will have already have extended (or not extended) Ingram, and we will be facing the same decision will Ball. Basically, none of these guys are going to be on cheap rookie contracts in the 2-3 year time horizon.

The point of this is that, if Lebron signs with us, and if he runs out of gas in 2-3 years, we are not going to have a bunch of open cap space to go chase a replacement. So when it comes to the theoretical window, the question is whether you think Paul George + the (not quite as) young core would be a title contender. Based on what we have seen to date, I would say no. I think we would be a playoff team, and there is always the possibility of a surprising run some year. We would be about on the level of this year's Jazz.

So I would peg the championship window at two years.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:17 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Do we keep Ingram, Ball. Randle, Kuzma and Hart too? If so, a decade. As Lebron fades, the other guys step up until he retires and they entirely take over. I figure Lebron has another year or two before he begins to drop significantly. The beauty of the youth + Lebron plan is that's all we need from him - a year or two.


That is probably what the FO is visioning unless Kawhi becomes available.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:32 am    Post subject:

If we got 20 more games from any combination between Zo and Ingram, I think we win 40+ games. If we swap out KCP and add Lebron and George, how many more wins is that swap worth? How many more wins is another year of experience for Hart, Kuzma, Ingram, Ball and Randle worth? What, 20 more wins?

If we get both George and Lebron, while keeping Lopez and Randle, with reasonable health, I think it is fair to expect a 60+ win season.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:49 am    Post subject:

We're a contender as long as Lebron is playing as a high level. After that we become the Blazers if our team remains as is. Good and exciting to watch but never good enough to win it all.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
If we got 20 more games from any combination between Zo and Ingram, I think we win 40+ games. If we swap out KCP and add Lebron and George, how many more wins is that swap worth? How many more wins is another year of experience for Hart, Kuzma, Ingram, Ball and Randle worth? What, 20 more wins?

If we get both George and Lebron, while keeping Lopez and Randle, with reasonable health, I think it is fair to expect a 60+ win season.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:09 am    Post subject:

You'd have a 2 year window, in which time our youngsters would be just starting coming into their own as a whole(if they are even still around).

But by that time LeBron is 35-36, and father time is undefeated.

So it would essentially lead to nothing for us.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:10 am    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
You'd have a 2 year window, in which time our youngsters would be just start coming into their own as a whole.

But by that time LeBron is 35, and father time is undefeated.

So it would essentially lead to nothing for us.


We could win a ring or 2 in that time frame. I think it's more like 3, then dependent on whatever Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart become.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:11 am    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
If we got 20 more games from any combination between Zo and Ingram, I think we win 40+ games. If we swap out KCP and add Lebron and George, how many more wins is that swap worth? How many more wins is another year of experience for Hart, Kuzma, Ingram, Ball and Randle worth? What, 20 more wins?

If we get both George and Lebron, while keeping Lopez and Randle, with reasonable health, I think it is fair to expect a 60+ win season.


I think so too. Outside of the Rockets and Warriors, all other decent teams in the West are flawed, and on paper, inferior to the projected Lakers team-even more so in the playoffs.

With that much length and outside of LeBron, young or youngish legs and such good potential bench units, I envision an extremely fast-paced style of play on offense and a ferocious, switching defense. We've got a pair of speedy, athletic playmakers who hit the lane like bowling balls in transition (Randle & James), a PG who initiates and anticipates as fast as anyone in the league already, secondary playmakers on the wing, good (but not great) shooting, size, speed......add a bit more shooting and we're very very dangerous.

The other thing to consider is that with a platoon-oriented, Warriors-ish style enabled by our relative depth, I could see James averaging something like 32-33 mpg, as we have 5 or 6 players between the 2.3 & 4 spots who should see the floor for at least 25 mpg. Less wear & tear over the next several seasons, more energy available on O & D per minute played, fresher legs through the season and into the playoffs-and that goes for everyone, young or old. The pace this makes possible, combined with the size and power of some of our playmakers, is going to be really hard to deal with without a lot of energy expended by the other team-think of a bully-ball version of the Rocket's offense with more cutting and more potential initiators. It's a recipe for piling up regular season wins.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:13 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
MJST wrote:
You'd have a 2 year window, in which time our youngsters would be just start coming into their own as a whole.

But by that time LeBron is 35, and father time is undefeated.

So it would essentially lead to nothing for us.


We could win a ring or 2 in that time frame. I think it's more like 3, then dependent on whatever Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart become.


Precisely, and Lonzo and Ingram are about 2 seasons away from becoming those kind of 'impact' players consistently at a Championship potential level in my opinion.

And 37 year old LeBron isn't carrying this team to the Finals in the West.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:18 am    Post subject:

MJST wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
MJST wrote:
You'd have a 2 year window, in which time our youngsters would be just start coming into their own as a whole.

But by that time LeBron is 35, and father time is undefeated.

So it would essentially lead to nothing for us.


We could win a ring or 2 in that time frame. I think it's more like 3, then dependent on whatever Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart become.


Precisely, and Lonzo and Ingram are about 2 seasons away from becoming those kind of 'impact' players consistently at a Championship potential level in my opinion.

And 37 year old LeBron isn't carrying this team to the Finals in the West.


First 2 years they would be the #3-7 men on a possible championship rotation. They're ready for that.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:30 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
MJST wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
MJST wrote:
You'd have a 2 year window, in which time our youngsters would be just start coming into their own as a whole.

But by that time LeBron is 35, and father time is undefeated.

So it would essentially lead to nothing for us.


We could win a ring or 2 in that time frame. I think it's more like 3, then dependent on whatever Lonzo/BI/Jules/Kuz/Hart become.


Precisely, and Lonzo and Ingram are about 2 seasons away from becoming those kind of 'impact' players consistently at a Championship potential level in my opinion.

And 37 year old LeBron isn't carrying this team to the Finals in the West.


First 2 years they would be the #3-7 men on a possible championship rotation. They're ready for that.


If LeBron and George are your 1st and 2nd options surrounded by kids whom are 2 seasons away, are you winning a Championship?
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