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activeverb
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 Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSanity wrote: | Here's the scenario that concerns me:
On July 6 (or the next day thereafter), both George and Lebron have committed without any indication prior to that date that both would sign with LA. On the same day of July 1, Randle signs an offer sheet for 4 years, $80 million with someone (say Sacramento or Dallas)), giving the Lakers until July 8 to match.
The Lakers, at this point, have not traded Deng. However, it has been announced, and made clear, that both George and Lebron are coming to the Lakers. The entire league now knows that, for the Lakers to re-sign Randle, the Lakers must trade Deng for cap space.
As it turns out, the only two teams not intent on using their cap space this summer (and willing to take dead salary) are Atlanta and Chicago. As it also turns out, a number of other teams (such as, say, Dallas, Sacramento, Phoenix, etc.) are trying to free up even more cap space and are competing with the Lakers to dump salaries on Chicago and Atlanta. There is a bidding war of 5+ teams trying to obtain the cap space from only two teams, and the Lakers only have 48 hours to win the bidding war. Atlanta and Chicago both use the Lakers' desperation to keep Randle, the competitive bids from other teams and the exigency of a 48 hour deadline against the Lakers to ask more than the Lakers initially offered (or are willing to offer).
What will it cost to get rid of Deng at that point? Is it likely that the cost will be too high?
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All of the above can be avoided if the Lakers simply make re-signing Randle a priority immediately and, as such, try to move Deng by the draft in order to avoid that kind of bidding war which could leave them on the outside looking in at the exact moment they needed to win. Logically, if the Lakers do not make a pre-emptive move at trading Deng, it also means only one of the following is true -
(1) The Lakers think they can re-sign Randle without moving Deng (i.e. we will only get one max player, not two this summer, or, somehow, the players we sign take paycuts);
(2) The Lakers don't want to re-sign Randle if they get two max guys,
(3) The Lakers are still just not sure if they want to re-sign Randle where they get two max guys (and are willing to punt that decision to the last minute regardless of the risk that entails);
(4) No matter the scenario, the Lakers don't want to re-sign Randle unless it is for the right amount (which can't be determined until free agency begins) or
(5) The Lakers just don't want to re-sign Randle regardless of the circumstance.
None of those scenarios are that great, but one has to be true, IMO, if we don't jump on a Deng trade early. |
Basically, it comes down to whether the assets that are required to trade Deng are more or less valuable than Randle. And even if they are less valuable than Randle, you have to decide if it's worth it to give the assets up before you know for sure whether you need the cap space.
No matter what the Lakers do, they'll be throwing the dice. Just depends what bet you want to make. |
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LakerSanity
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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^I guess my issue is that the cost, IMO, dramatically changes pre-draft v. post July 1. While, sure, what you say is obviously true, I'm really curious to see what the talk is Re: Deng and Randle as we get closer to the draft as we may see some decent harbingers around that time.
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Laker's Fan
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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Some recent/relevant free agent commitment dates
Durant agrees to join Warriors - July 5
Horford agrees to join Celtics July 2
Hayward agrees to join Celtics July 4
DeAndre Jordan agrees to join Mavs July 4; Goes back to Clippers July 9
Chris Bosh agrees to join Heat July 7
LeBron agrees to join Heat (the Decision) July 8
LeBron publishes an article in SI announcing he would be returning to Cleveland July 11; Strong rumors that he had decided to return surfaced July 6
James isn't going to let external factors dictate the timing of his decision, but also isn't going to drag his feet and see his options get worse. I don't think he decides where he's playing by Saturday, July 7.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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^^^^
In that sense, it will be interesting to see how much leakage we have from the new front office. |
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UKUGA
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 7:56 am Post subject: |
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| dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | I can already see Mark Cuban tweeting a picture at 10pm PST on July 1st with him and Randle signing an offer sheet at The Palm. |
Funny.
Well, they do need some new faces at The Palm with all the #MeToo attackers covered up.
I went to the one in Manhattan in December, and sat at the Harvey Weinstein table. They had a white piece of paper over his face. |
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UKUGA
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:00 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | UKUGA wrote: | | cyborgspider wrote: | Randle on the ESPN Draft Combine show. Getting interviewed by Woj in his ultra-popular podcast. Is Mintz putting the pressure on the Lakers and running a full-court press to get his client out there, drumming up public support & attention?
Don't see the Jabari Parkers & Aaron Gordons of the world doing this (yet).
So yeah... I'm a little concerned that Mintz & Pelinka aren't on the best terms (remember, it was Mintz's evidence that led to Pelinka's tampering charge, which everyone refers to the Magic fine but it fell on Rob).
So how does that bode with Paul George? Is Mintz jealous about all the Klutch favoritism and upset about the D'lo trade? Why am I asking so many questions?? Gah  |
They are all pretty good ones.
The Mintz/Pelinka/George/Randle/Russell connection is a strange one indeed.
On the surface, it seems as if it would be favorable to Mintz for George to come to LA and for Randle to get the largest deal possible. (Having 2 key Lakers can't be bad for a single agent, can it?)
Deep down, I suspect he's concerned that if the Lakers plan to cut bait with Randle, that it costs him a decent amount on the (limited) open market.
George gets a max deal no matter where he goes, so Mintz isn't real concerned there. Randle is his next tier, and he doesn't want to blow this payday coming off a surprisingly strong season.
So, if he doesn't like the way JR is being treated (or if he can't even get the Lakers to say the right things about JR publicly), then deep down, he might be more inclined to encourage PG to consider other options.
If George doesn't come, then the Lakers are more inclined to sign JR. It's a win for Mintz. |
Mintz works for PG13, not the other way around. |
Sure. And it's also his job to bring him opportunities and give him advice on the best decision for his career.
If Mintz honestly thinks the best situation for George is somewhere other than LA, then it's his responsibility to sell that to George.
Personally, I think that the best situation for George is LA. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:10 am Post subject: |
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| UKUGA wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | UKUGA wrote: | | cyborgspider wrote: | Randle on the ESPN Draft Combine show. Getting interviewed by Woj in his ultra-popular podcast. Is Mintz putting the pressure on the Lakers and running a full-court press to get his client out there, drumming up public support & attention?
Don't see the Jabari Parkers & Aaron Gordons of the world doing this (yet).
So yeah... I'm a little concerned that Mintz & Pelinka aren't on the best terms (remember, it was Mintz's evidence that led to Pelinka's tampering charge, which everyone refers to the Magic fine but it fell on Rob).
So how does that bode with Paul George? Is Mintz jealous about all the Klutch favoritism and upset about the D'lo trade? Why am I asking so many questions?? Gah |
They are all pretty good ones.
The Mintz/Pelinka/George/Randle/Russell connection is a strange one indeed.
On the surface, it seems as if it would be favorable to Mintz for George to come to LA and for Randle to get the largest deal possible. (Having 2 key Lakers can't be bad for a single agent, can it?)
Deep down, I suspect he's concerned that if the Lakers plan to cut bait with Randle, that it costs him a decent amount on the (limited) open market.
George gets a max deal no matter where he goes, so Mintz isn't real concerned there. Randle is his next tier, and he doesn't want to blow this payday coming off a surprisingly strong season.
So, if he doesn't like the way JR is being treated (or if he can't even get the Lakers to say the right things about JR publicly), then deep down, he might be more inclined to encourage PG to consider other options.
If George doesn't come, then the Lakers are more inclined to sign JR. It's a win for Mintz. |
Mintz works for PG13, not the other way around. |
Sure. And it's also his job to bring him opportunities and give him advice on the best decision for his career.
If Mintz honestly thinks the best situation for George is somewhere other than LA, then it's his responsibility to sell that to George.
Personally, I think that the best situation for George is LA. |
But in your scenario Mintz's advice may be driven by how the Lakers treat Jules, which is adding an element that is not PG13.
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UKUGA
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | UKUGA wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | UKUGA wrote: | | cyborgspider wrote: | Randle on the ESPN Draft Combine show. Getting interviewed by Woj in his ultra-popular podcast. Is Mintz putting the pressure on the Lakers and running a full-court press to get his client out there, drumming up public support & attention?
Don't see the Jabari Parkers & Aaron Gordons of the world doing this (yet).
So yeah... I'm a little concerned that Mintz & Pelinka aren't on the best terms (remember, it was Mintz's evidence that led to Pelinka's tampering charge, which everyone refers to the Magic fine but it fell on Rob).
So how does that bode with Paul George? Is Mintz jealous about all the Klutch favoritism and upset about the D'lo trade? Why am I asking so many questions?? Gah |
They are all pretty good ones.
The Mintz/Pelinka/George/Randle/Russell connection is a strange one indeed.
On the surface, it seems as if it would be favorable to Mintz for George to come to LA and for Randle to get the largest deal possible. (Having 2 key Lakers can't be bad for a single agent, can it?)
Deep down, I suspect he's concerned that if the Lakers plan to cut bait with Randle, that it costs him a decent amount on the (limited) open market.
George gets a max deal no matter where he goes, so Mintz isn't real concerned there. Randle is his next tier, and he doesn't want to blow this payday coming off a surprisingly strong season.
So, if he doesn't like the way JR is being treated (or if he can't even get the Lakers to say the right things about JR publicly), then deep down, he might be more inclined to encourage PG to consider other options.
If George doesn't come, then the Lakers are more inclined to sign JR. It's a win for Mintz. |
Mintz works for PG13, not the other way around. |
Sure. And it's also his job to bring him opportunities and give him advice on the best decision for his career.
If Mintz honestly thinks the best situation for George is somewhere other than LA, then it's his responsibility to sell that to George.
Personally, I think that the best situation for George is LA. |
But in your scenario Mintz's advice may be driven by how the Lakers treat Jules, which is adding an element that is not PG13. |
Right.
And if Mintz doesn't like working with the Lakers FO, then he may see other opportunities for George more favorably. |
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lonzobryant
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:19 am Post subject: |
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| If Dallas drafts JJ jr or Bamba then I'm expecting a big offer from the Mavs for Julius. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:20 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Right.
And if Mintz doesn't like working with the Lakers FO, then he may see other opportunities for George more favorably. |
I really think this is what PG13 wants, and is more PG13 driven as opposed to how Mintz views the Lakers. It would be agent malpractice to impose your own views over your client's. If PG13 wants to go there, Mintz will make that happen even if he has reservations about the Lakers (maybe b/c of how the Lakers dealt with his other clients, DLO+Jules).
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UKUGA
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 8:24 am Post subject: |
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| lonzobryant wrote: | | If Dallas drafts JJ jr or Bamba then I'm expecting a big offer from the Mavs for Julius. |
It seems to make sense.
There's a lot of talk about how the Mavericks might not want Randle if they draft a big, but I keep thinking back to that JR feature on espn.com from about 2 months ago, in which Erik Spoelstra is quoted as saying that "everybody is trying to find a guy like (J.R.)".
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22737990/julius-randle-trying-change-narrative-future-los-angeles-lakers
"He's that hybrid forward position that five or six years ago, there wasn't necessarily a place for him in the league," Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said before Randle set the tone by bullying the Heat for 21 of his 25 points in the first half of a 131-113 Lakers win on March 1. "And now everybody is trying to find a guy like that." |
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Killakobe81
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| laker50 wrote: | What I am worried about is the Lakers try to do too much and end up with nothing. It started with the Nash contract. Then Howard. Then tried to go for Aldridge and Melo and ended up with Mosgov and Deng.
The Lakers FO HAVE to follow these basic rules otherwise end up just like before.
1. Don't up first round players unless DIRECT trade for a superstar. Don't use valuable resources to stretch Deng!!! Admit it is a Dung contract and stretch.
2. Don't give up valuable future stars unless outbid by a stupid amount. Offer Julius Randle a good contract and pay. Unless another team offers a bid way over market.
Don't shoot for the moon until you can get a rocket in space.
Just use common sense for once fellas. |
you forgot lotto protect those picks if they are used in a trade at least top 5 protected but top 10 would be better. |
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audioaxes
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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any possible sign and trade opportunities with Julius?
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Quote: | Right.
And if Mintz doesn't like working with the Lakers FO, then he may see other opportunities for George more favorably. |
I really think this is what PG13 wants, and is more PG13 driven as opposed to how Mintz views the Lakers. It would be agent malpractice to impose your own views over your client's. If PG13 wants to go there, Mintz will make that happen even if he has reservations about the Lakers (maybe b/c of how the Lakers dealt with his other clients, DLO+Jules). |
The process is not strictly binary, in the sense of LA or not LA. An agent would also be committing malpractice (or at least be derelict in his duty) if he didn’t explore all reasonable options with his client. There will be a price tag associated with each option, whether it be something as mundane as state and local taxes or something as intangible as faith in a general manager.
Like any other agent, Mintz will have the ability to influence PG’s decision making process. It is unlikely that PG will say, Here is what I have decided, so make it happen. |
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watchME
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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I’ll say it again, if randle is not our future starting C everything done in FA will be a waste.
Green is what allows GsW to be so good because he speeds up the gane to a whole different level and thats what you need at C.
Randle can give you that plus he will out rebound anyone at the C |
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RI Laker
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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| PG is the boss. If he wants in (which I believe he does), he is coming here with or without Mintz. As a matter of fact, I think he does a handshake deal with the FO and delays his official signing in order to give them the latitude to construct the team. PG will then communicate with the FO during the FA period and his opinion will carry a lot of weight. I also think he would be willing to sacrifice a small amount of money and take a haircut if he is down with what the FO is trying to do. |
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Aike
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| Posted: Tue May 22, 2018 3:59 pm Post subject: |
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| RI Laker wrote: | | PG is the boss. If he wants in (which I believe he does), he is coming here with or without Mintz. As a matter of fact, I think he does a handshake deal with the FO and delays his official signing in order to give them the latitude to construct the team. PG will then communicate with the FO during the FA period and his opinion will carry a lot of weight. I also think he would be willing to sacrifice a small amount of money and take a haircut if he is down with what the FO is trying to do. |
How does Paul George delaying help the Lakers? Or did you mean Randle? |
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