Lonzo vs Tatum
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 10:54 am    Post subject:

Lakers_Jester wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
epak wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
^ the nostradumbass of LG


You gonna cry when ball and his fugly shot gets traded?


I'd be shocked and sad. But would get over it and root for whoever is here.
Would you cry if he doesn't get traded and root against him?

Ron Howard voice: "He already does."


Why don't you say that to my face? I'll meet you in front of staples center at 7pm. I'll be the guy wearing the lonzo ball jersey and the big baller brand shoes.


What's wrong with Temecula?
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 10:54 am    Post subject:

Lakers_Jester wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
epak wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
^ the nostradumbass of LG


You gonna cry when ball and his fugly shot gets traded?


I'd be shocked and sad. But would get over it and root for whoever is here.
Would you cry if he doesn't get traded and root against him?

Ron Howard voice: "He already does."


Why don't you say that to my face? I'll meet you in front of staples center at 7pm. I'll be the guy wearing the lonzo ball jersey and the big baller brand shoes.

You're just trying to trick me into punching LaMelo. It won't work.
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:09 am    Post subject:

People are way too focused on Lonzos shot.
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Lakers_Jester
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:16 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
epak wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
^ the nostradumbass of LG


You gonna cry when ball and his fugly shot gets traded?


I'd be shocked and sad. But would get over it and root for whoever is here.
Would you cry if he doesn't get traded and root against him?

Ron Howard voice: "He already does."


Why don't you say that to my face? I'll meet you in front of staples center at 7pm. I'll be the guy wearing the lonzo ball jersey and the big baller brand shoes.

You're just trying to trick me into punching LaMelo. It won't work.


But is lamelo > tatum?

That is the conversation we should be having.
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Lakers_Jester
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:19 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
People are way too focused on Lonzos shot.


I'm not focused on it, and neither are opposing defenses.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:24 am    Post subject:

Texas_Pete wrote:
Haven't read they this thread, but I am very happy with Lonzo. Just like the comparison with Kuz, the only thing I see Tatum doing better than Lonzo is score. Lonzo is a better passer, rebounder, and defender. If 10/7/7 is the worse Lonzo will ever be, I'll take it.

Lonzo will improve his body thru strength and conditioning which will lead to an overall improvement to his game. And he plays the type of game that makes even fringe players better. Tell you what, this will be an interesting summer for free agents. I guarantee you free agents will want to play with this kid. Cap space and Lonzo are two major reasons why we should be optimistic about making some noise in next year's playoffs.


How much will you be willing to pay for those #s because there's a chance he’ll be asking for max money
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:25 am    Post subject:

Lakers_Jester wrote:
BigGameHames wrote:
People are way too focused on Lonzos shot.


I'm not focused on it, and neither are opposing defenses.


Clever...
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:26 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Texas_Pete wrote:
Haven't read they this thread, but I am very happy with Lonzo. Just like the comparison with Kuz, the only thing I see Tatum doing better than Lonzo is score. Lonzo is a better passer, rebounder, and defender. If 10/7/7 is the worse Lonzo will ever be, I'll take it.

Lonzo will improve his body thru strength and conditioning which will lead to an overall improvement to his game. And he plays the type of game that makes even fringe players better. Tell you what, this will be an interesting summer for free agents. I guarantee you free agents will want to play with this kid. Cap space and Lonzo are two major reasons why we should be optimistic about making some noise in next year's playoffs.


How much will you be willing to pay for those #s because there's a chance he’ll be asking for max money


Not at those numbers he won’t. His pops actually said he’d take a discount
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:44 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Texas_Pete wrote:
Haven't read they this thread, but I am very happy with Lonzo. Just like the comparison with Kuz, the only thing I see Tatum doing better than Lonzo is score. Lonzo is a better passer, rebounder, and defender. If 10/7/7 is the worse Lonzo will ever be, I'll take it.

Lonzo will improve his body thru strength and conditioning which will lead to an overall improvement to his game. And he plays the type of game that makes even fringe players better. Tell you what, this will be an interesting summer for free agents. I guarantee you free agents will want to play with this kid. Cap space and Lonzo are two major reasons why we should be optimistic about making some noise in next year's playoffs.


How much will you be willing to pay for those #s because there's a chance he’ll be asking for max money


Not at those numbers he won’t. His pops actually said he’d take a discount


We’ll see. The max players are the easiest ones to price.

It’s the non-max players that are harder to sign. Players always think they are worth more

i.e. Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins.

Even Julius Randle and the Lakers might not agree on his worth. He probably thinks he’s a max player and the Lakers probably value him somewhere less.

Let’s see what D’Angelo Russell ends up getting
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 11:57 am    Post subject:

If Zo stays a 36% shooter, which is what he would have to remain for his average to stick at 10 ppg, he is not getting anywhere close to a max deal. If everything about him stayed the same, including his D, you are looking at basically what Rajon Rondo would be paid. That's an MLE type player.

However, the odds that a rookie point guard with Lonzo's athleticism, IQ and length doesnt improve significantly over the next three 2-3 years are pretty freaking low. Even just marginal gains in FG% and FT%, without any increase in shot attempts, would increase his averages by 2-3 points per game. It's also unlikely he doesnt improve his turn over rate, rebounding or vision as he gains experience and becomes stronger. He's going to beqa good player. That shouldnt be in question. The only question is "how good?"
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:10 pm    Post subject:

I expect Lonzo to be a 12-15ppg for his career. We'll see. I don't expect his scoring to rise that much next year...we're just hoping for better percentages.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:40 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So much shortsightedness here about players who just completed their rookie seasons and still are too young to buy a beer.


Yes, Let’s talk when they are 23-24.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:42 pm    Post subject:

In 2-3 years, could see something like 16-17ppg/9apg/8 rpg.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:44 pm    Post subject:

Lakers_Jester wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
epak wrote:
Lakers_Jester wrote:
VicXLakers wrote:
^ the nostradumbass of LG


You gonna cry when ball and his fugly shot gets traded?


I'd be shocked and sad. But would get over it and root for whoever is here.
Would you cry if he doesn't get traded and root against him?

Ron Howard voice: "He already does."


Why don't you say that to my face? I'll meet you in front of staples center at 7pm. I'll be the guy wearing the lonzo ball jersey and the big baller brand shoes.

You're just trying to trick me into punching LaMelo. It won't work.


But is lamelo > tatum?

That is the conversation we should be having.

Yes
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:50 pm    Post subject:

Without any more shot attempts or any more free throws, if Zo, next year, shot 42% overall (including 33% from 3 and 60% from the FT line), he'd average just about 12 PPG. He shot so poorly that even if he shoots just subpar %s (and not completely abhorrent %s like last year), he'll grab 2-3 extra points per game right there alone.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:55 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
Without any more shot attempts or any more free throws, if Zo, next year, shot 42% overall (including 33% from 3 and 60% from the FT line), he'd average just about 12 PPG. He shot so poorly that even if he shoots just subpar %s (and not completely abhorrent %s like last year), he'll grab 2-3 extra points per game right there alone.


His OBPM might turn into +0.1 too.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:56 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
In 2-3 years, could see something like 16-17ppg/9apg/8 rpg.


So we will see Magic part deux
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 1:06 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
You're just trying to trick me into punching LaMelo. It won't work.





just reading through thread
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 1:14 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
Without any more shot attempts or any more free throws, if Zo, next year, shot 42% overall (including 33% from 3 and 60% from the FT line), he'd average just about 12 PPG. He shot so poorly that even if he shoots just subpar %s (and not completely abhorrent %s like last year), he'll grab 2-3 extra points per game right there alone.


His OBPM might turn into +0.1 too.


What people don't really put enough weight on is his FT rate. With added strength, Zo not only finishes better in the paint, but he also goes to the paint more less afraid of contact. He will also drive more the better he shoots from the FT line - the two are related. Zo only shot 1.4 FTs per game last year. That should be more like 4-5, minimum. He's only getting 0.6 PPG from the FT line right now. That should easily rise to about 2-3 per game.

Zo current averages 10.8 shots per game and 1.4 FTs per game. A Zo who shoots 11 times per game (including 44% overall shooting and 35% for 5 3pt shots per game) plus 4 FTs per game (at 70%) averages 14 PPG. At the same %s, if he increases his 3pt attempts to 6 per game and shoots 2 more 2pt shots per game (for a total of 14 shots per game) plus an extra FT attempt (5 total), that gets him to 18 PPG.

14 shots per game isn't a lot looking at the top PGs in the league. Of the top 10 scoring PGs in the league, only one (Kyle Lowry) shoots less than 14 attempts per game. Ricky Rubio, who only averages 14 PPG (ranked in the top 15 in scoring for PGs) took 13.2 shot per game (with 5 FTA per game) despite playing at a much slower pace in Utah than the Lakers played in LA last year.

So, here's the scoring stat line that gets Zo to 18 PPG - 14 shots per game (at 44% overall and, including 6 3s per game, at 35% from 3) plus 5 FTs per game (at 70% from the line). I think that's pretty doable for career averages. You combine that with say 9-11 APG and 6-8 RPG, plus elite D, you've got a top 10 player in this league.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject:

I only said that because I was being petty, especially when things are put into actual context vs other rookie point guards.

It's funny how you mention FTr. That's what Dennis Smith Jr. is supposed to be great at and yet, the OBPM is lower. Better finisher, PnR player, general shooter.

Frankly, I'm not even concerned about Zo's PPG. I only care if he takes open shots and opportunistic drives. With FA season, he doesn't have to expand beyond that, he just has to be more efficient when he does it.

If there's a late clock issue, then sure, let PG13 handle it. But if Zo's man rotates off of him to provide D-help, then I'll be upset if he passes up open shots.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 3:59 pm    Post subject:

LakerSanity wrote:
So, here's the scoring stat line that gets Zo to 18 PPG - 14 shots per game (at 44% overall and, including 6 3s per game, at 35% from 3) plus 5 FTs per game (at 70% from the line). I think that's pretty doable for career averages. You combine that with say 9-11 APG and 6-8 RPG, plus elite D, you've got a top 10 player in this league.


While I agree that this would be a good start, those numbers would be similar to John Wall in 2016. He would have a couple fewer points, a couple more rebounds, and somewhat better defense. I’d be pleased with that, but it would not make him a top 10 player in the league.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 4:06 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
You're just trying to trick me into punching LaMelo. It won't work.





just reading through thread

That kid does have the most punchable face.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 4:12 pm    Post subject:

Calling 2016 John Wall "a good start" is wild.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 4:18 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
LakerSanity wrote:
So, here's the scoring stat line that gets Zo to 18 PPG - 14 shots per game (at 44% overall and, including 6 3s per game, at 35% from 3) plus 5 FTs per game (at 70% from the line). I think that's pretty doable for career averages. You combine that with say 9-11 APG and 6-8 RPG, plus elite D, you've got a top 10 player in this league.


While I agree that this would be a good start, those numbers would be similar to John Wall in 2016. He would have a couple fewer points, a couple more rebounds, and somewhat better defense. I’d be pleased with that, but it would not make him a top 10 player in the league.


That's much better than a "good start." Not all stats are equal and not all defense is equal. That's where wins and advanced stats come in. If he improves his stats to those levels while equally improving his effect on the success of his team (as demonstrated by wins and advanced stats), then he's a top 10 player. For example, in 2016, the Wizards only won 41 games. If they win 55+ games, Wall is probably a 1st team or second team player that year. We can agree to disagree about all that though.
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 4:56 pm    Post subject:

Practice wrote:
Calling 2016 John Wall "a good start" is wild.


Expecting Zo to be a Top 10 guy this soon is wild too.
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