Lakers Ranking/Win Total Next Season (Vegas Sets Line @ 48.5; ESPN Predicts 41 Wins/Miss Playoffs)
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How Many Wins/What Seed Do You See The Lakers Acheiving This Season?
A. 41 Wins or Less/Miss the Playoffs
1%
 1%  [ 3 ]
B. 42-44 Wins/8th Seed
0%
 0%  [ 1 ]
C. 45-49 Wins/6th to 7th Seed
16%
 16%  [ 37 ]
D. 50-55 Wins/3rd to 5th Seed
65%
 65%  [ 143 ]
E. 56 Wins or More/1st or 2nd Seed
16%
 16%  [ 36 ]
Total Votes : 220

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UKUGA
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:47 am    Post subject:

50 wins would be a nice achievement for this team.

What's important to note, there, is that 48.5 wins would tie us with Utah for 4th best record in the West.

So, unlike Kevin Pelton and ESPN, Vegas has us fighting for HCA in the first round, rather than fighting just to make the play-offs.
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:12 am    Post subject:

I think there will be some growing pains, but it's not going to take 40 minutes of LeBron per night to win games and the bench is deep enough to keep us competitive when the starting unit takes a breather.

I think Ingram, Kuz, Hart and Ball will surprise non-Laker fans this year, and they each have solid vets to platoon with this time around. 55 wins.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:14 am    Post subject:

^^^^

The Lakers were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year as of the all star break. I never saw the final stats, but we would have been in top third or top quarter at least. The narrative about us being injury riddled is not accurate. Everyone has injuries. Ask the Pelicans or the Celtics.
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TooMuchMajicBuss
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:31 am    Post subject:

For a while we were playing solid .600+ ball, once the initial rookie growing pains were over with by early January. But then at the start of March we let Brewer go and within hours Hart and Ingram both went out with injuries for about 4 weeks simultaneously. Terrible combination, all our NBA quality SF's gone. We played .400 ball to close the season, relying heavily on G league and 10 day contract talent to fill the void. We were not a deep team last year and that bit us.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:43 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

The Lakers were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year as of the all star break. I never saw the final stats, but we would have been in top third or top quarter at least. The narrative about us being injury riddled is not accurate. Everyone has injuries. Ask the Pelicans or the Celtics.


Yup. I would assert that it was more of a failure by our FO to plan for:

1. rookie Lonzo being banged up and needing a more steady backup PG.

2. still physically underdeveloped BI not being durable enough for the season and not having a good backup plan for SF. Brewer wasn't cutting it but then we allowed him to leave for OKC, didn't play Deng, and played a steady stream of G League guys out of position at SF.

Otherwise we were pretty healthy overall as a team.
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:44 am    Post subject:

http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=185470 ?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:56 am    Post subject:

Has a Lebron-lead team ever won less than 48 games in the regular season before? Seems like an easy over for me. I know it's the West but the Lakers also have a much more talented supporting cast. I have the Lakers at 55-60 wins. If the Lakers won less than 48 games, I would hunt Luke down and demand some answers.

My expectation for the Lakers this year is WCF or bust. They should be able to take down any team except for the Warriors.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:09 am    Post subject:

UKUGA wrote:
50 wins would be a nice achievement for this team.

What's important to note, there, is that 48.5 wins would tie us with Utah for 4th best record in the West.

So, unlike Kevin Pelton and ESPN, Vegas has us fighting for HCA in the first round, rather than fighting just to make the play-offs.


And unlike Pelton and ESPN, Vegas’ goal is to get people to plop cash down on the number they come up with, ideally cash on both sides of that number. They are motivated by profits, not predicting how well the Lakers do.
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manlisten
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:22 am    Post subject:

TooMuchMajicBuss wrote:
For a while we were playing solid .600+ ball, once the initial rookie growing pains were over with by early January. But then at the start of March we let Brewer go and within hours Hart and Ingram both went out with injuries for about 4 weeks simultaneously. Terrible combination, all our NBA quality SF's gone. We played .400 ball to close the season, relying heavily on G league and 10 day contract talent to fill the void. We were not a deep team last year and that bit us.


Not to mention Lonzo getting hurt. Eventually the team learned to play without him but by then the damage was done.
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pio2u
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:30 am    Post subject:

epak wrote:
http://forums.lakersground.net/viewtopic.php?t=185470 ?
merge?
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lakersibleed
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:30 am    Post subject:

Here is a good question... What would our record be with this roster minus LBJ?
Could we make the playoffs?

I think we would make the playoffs or be atleast 47 wins even without LBJ. Our bench unit is going to be the best in the league this year...
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pio2u
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:33 am    Post subject:

Play-offs or BUST!
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24Legend007
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:33 am    Post subject:

lakersibleed wrote:
Here is a good question... What would our record be with this roster minus LBJ?
Could we make the playoffs?

I think we would make the playoffs or be atleast 47 wins even without LBJ. Our bench unit is going to be the best in the league this year...


If you take out Lebron and insert Randle I do think they are a possible 8 seed. Not to mention you probably have 15 million or even 20 in cap space still.

So who could the Lakers have signed for 20 million?

Could of gave Ariza 18 million or so?

Lonzo/Rondo
KCP/Hart
Ingram/Ariza
Kuzma/Beasley
McGee/Randle

Stephenson/Svi/Zu/Moe


Last edited by 24Legend007 on Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:34 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
epak wrote:
Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


They were fortunate the Lakers had injuries and I don't think they account for injuries in their predictions. Correct me if I'm wrong on the injuries calculations.


Injuries are factored in, in his projections. They have to be, I mean, you can’t make a projection assuming Kristaps Porzingis is 100% healthy considering there are rumors he may miss this entire season, for instance.

Anyway, This is from an article last year...

Quote:
As in past seasons, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed by taking into account the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.


http://es.pn/2u2bdUu


Interesting. I wonder what they do for rookies.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:17 am    Post subject:

lakersibleed wrote:
Here is a good question... What would our record be with this roster minus LBJ?
Could we make the playoffs?

I think we would make the playoffs or be atleast 47 wins even without LBJ. Our bench unit is going to be the best in the league this year...


Not after we let Randle and Lopez go. If they were still here, then maybe.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:33 pm    Post subject:

Peltons comments on the difference between his RPM projection and Vegas's projection.....

Quote:
Los Angeles Lakers
Westgate total: 48.5 wins
RPM projection: 41.2 wins

Because of their large, vocal fan base located conveniently near Las Vegas, there does appear to be a Lakers tax in the totals. On average since 2006, they've fallen 1.5 wins short of their total. This year's difference is much larger, owing to the excitement surrounding the arrival of LeBron James.

The last two times LeBron has changed teams, that excitement has proven irrational exuberance. The Miami Heat fell 6.5 wins shy of its total in 2010-11, and then the Cleveland Cavaliers were 5.5 wins shy in 2014-15. That seems to reflect what my research has found -- that RPM projections need to be regressed to the mean when players change teams because of an adjustment period and uncertainty about how they'll fit in a different role.

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Tick
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:03 pm    Post subject:

I'll go with at least 50 wins.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:19 pm    Post subject:

epak wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
epak wrote:
Shaber wrote:
I understand the outrage against such a prediction,
but wasn't ESPN very precise in predicting Lakers win total last two seasons?


They were fortunate the Lakers had injuries and I don't think they account for injuries in their predictions. Correct me if I'm wrong on the injuries calculations.


Injuries are factored in, in his projections. They have to be, I mean, you can’t make a projection assuming Kristaps Porzingis is 100% healthy considering there are rumors he may miss this entire season, for instance.

Anyway, This is from an article last year...

Quote:
As in past seasons, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed by taking into account the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.


http://es.pn/2u2bdUu


Interesting. I wonder what they do for rookies.


It doesn’t say, or, I couldnt find it, but my guess is it would be something like the average games missed for all players that played around the same number of projected minutes.

It’s accounted for somehow. No projection system would assume perfect health and if it did, it wouldnt be as accurate as Pelton’s methodology.
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epak
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:34 pm    Post subject:

^ That's sounds like a good approach.
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kawhileonard
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:09 pm    Post subject:

is 48.5 lebrons lowest?
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The Juggernaut
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:48 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

The Lakers were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year as of the all star break. I never saw the final stats, but we would have been in top third or top quarter at least. The narrative about us being injury riddled is not accurate. Everyone has injuries. Ask the Pelicans or the Celtics.


I think you should take a look at the finals stats. Post All Star break is when the injuries started piling up: Ingram, Hart, Lonzo, Isaiah Thomas. We had been playing some really good basketball too.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:37 pm    Post subject:

The 41 wins is totally surprising but in a way I get it. My guess is that ESPN is keeping the young guns improvement static and also degrading Lebron a bit cause he’s older. The vets will not make much of a difference and we’re in the West.

Just way to be super conservative and pessimistic regarding the lakers ESPN.

I see 52 wins. Brandon’s going to look like an all star
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kawhileonard
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:15 am    Post subject:

Goldenwest wrote:
The 41 wins is totally surprising but in a way I get it. My guess is that ESPN is keeping the young guns improvement static and also degrading Lebron a bit cause he’s older. The vets will not make much of a difference and we’re in the West.

Just way to be super conservative and pessimistic regarding the lakers ESPN.

I see 52 wins. Brandon’s going to look like an all star


ESPN LOVES LEBRON.

Lebron is the posterchild for ESPN across every sport literally.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:20 am    Post subject:

kawhileonard wrote:
Goldenwest wrote:
The 41 wins is totally surprising but in a way I get it. My guess is that ESPN is keeping the young guns improvement static and also degrading Lebron a bit cause he’s older. The vets will not make much of a difference and we’re in the West.

Just way to be super conservative and pessimistic regarding the lakers ESPN.

I see 52 wins. Brandon’s going to look like an all star


ESPN LOVES LEBRON.

Lebron is the posterchild for ESPN across every sport literally.


Yes espn loves lebron but hates the lakers.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:22 pm    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

The Lakers were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league last year as of the all star break. I never saw the final stats, but we would have been in top third or top quarter at least. The narrative about us being injury riddled is not accurate. Everyone has injuries. Ask the Pelicans or the Celtics.


I think you should take a look at the finals stats. Post All Star break is when the injuries started piling up: Ingram, Hart, Lonzo, Isaiah Thomas. We had been playing some really good basketball too.


I managed to find a summary of the data. The underlying data is behind a pay wall, and I'm not paying $299 to get it. However, they posted a summary on Twitter. It is the chart in the August 2 tweet.

https://twitter.com/mangameslostnba?lang=en

We finished as the fifth healthiest team in terms of games lost. The size of the bubble represents the estimate of games lost, based on VORP. The size of our bubble looks about average.
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