Lakers Ranking/Win Total Next Season (Vegas Sets Line @ 48.5; ESPN Predicts 41 Wins/Miss Playoffs)
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How Many Wins/What Seed Do You See The Lakers Acheiving This Season?
A. 41 Wins or Less/Miss the Playoffs
1%
 1%  [ 3 ]
B. 42-44 Wins/8th Seed
0%
 0%  [ 1 ]
C. 45-49 Wins/6th to 7th Seed
16%
 16%  [ 37 ]
D. 50-55 Wins/3rd to 5th Seed
65%
 65%  [ 143 ]
E. 56 Wins or More/1st or 2nd Seed
16%
 16%  [ 36 ]
Total Votes : 220

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:35 pm    Post subject:

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:02 am    Post subject: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:08 am    Post subject:

That puts us 6th in the West (Warriors, Rox, OKC, Jazz, Twolves ahead of us).
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:19 am    Post subject:

That's much more realistic than Kevin Pelton's broken ass model.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:25 am    Post subject:

projected record actually has us in a tie with New Orleans for 7th in the West....which would be the 7th or 8th playoff slot.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:26 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
projected record actually has us in a tie with New Orleans for 7th in the West....which would be the 7th or 8th playoff slot.


Ah you're right. I didn't see that column.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:41 am    Post subject:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Lakers up to 6th west playoff spot now
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject:

Predictions are a lot more easier to do then using data, Pelton will likely admit that his data shouldn’t be taken seriously, despite the 46 win total being very low, it is still a much more likely scenario.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:16 pm    Post subject:

governator wrote:
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24365036/nba-standings-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Lakers up to 6th west playoff spot now


1.5 games from missing the playoffs, and 3 games from the 3 Seed.....not sure where we finish, but I do expect it to be this tight in the West.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:00 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:17 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Everyone deals with injuries for the most part, and neither Lonzo or Ingram were more than average starters at best last season. Losing a Lebron or Durant to injuries is different, but losing a rookie and 2nd year player for 20-30 games does not really stand out from the average team's annual injury issues. Also, a lot of the production that led to those 35 wins last season is no longer on the roster (Randle, Lopez, Clarkson, Nance, Thomas). Love or hate any or all of those guys....their production still impacted those 35 wins.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:31 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo mode

adkindo wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Everyone deals with injuries for the most part, and neither Lonzo or Ingram were more than average starters at best last season. Losing a Lebron or Durant to injuries is different, but losing a rookie and 2nd year player for 20-30 games does not really stand out from the average team's annual injury issues. Also, a lot of the production that led to those 35 wins last season is no longer on the roster (Randle, Lopez, Clarkson, Nance, Thomas). Love or hate any or all of those guys....their production still impacted those 35 wins.


Average starters at best? Seriously? Average starters don’t typically Impact games.. once Ingram got injured during the Miami game the team was never the same, even despite the productions of Thomas and others, once Ingram and Ball got injured the team falled apart and had to heavily rely on G-League talent.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:45 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

adkindo wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Everyone deals with injuries for the most part, and neither Lonzo or Ingram were more than average starters at best last season. Losing a Lebron or Durant to injuries is different, but losing a rookie and 2nd year player for 20-30 games does not really stand out from the average team's annual injury issues. Also, a lot of the production that led to those 35 wins last season is no longer on the roster (Randle, Lopez, Clarkson, Nance, Thomas). Love or hate any or all of those guys....their production still impacted those 35 wins.

You call them average starters as if they didn't impact the team's success or lack thereof when they were injured. We don't have to rewrite history because everyone knows the team nosedived after that. Also, the young players will be improved this season, at least Ingram should be noticeably better, based on his work ethic and seeing his scoring average grow 7 ppg last year. LeBron historically adds 15 wins to new teams he goes to. The talent that replaces last year's should be sufficient/a collective improvement overall. Randle is a big loss, but not the players who were let go. More time for Ingram and Kuzma, who is also improved, will make a 46 win prediction look silly. They were already better than last year if you take LeBron away. Add Hart, who has demonstrated ability to do things KCP can't do, and there's plenty reason to expect more wins. Rondo and Stephenson ensure 48 minutes of NBA quality depth, while Kuzma, Ingram, LeBron, Mcgee, Zubac, and Wagner will prevent Wear from ever seeing the court.


Last edited by lakersboy on Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:51 pm    Post subject:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24378077/kyle-kuzma-los-angeles-lakers-says-team-being-underestimated
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:54 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Jules was our best player by many objective metrics wasn't he? He was the common thread in all of our most effective line-ups. Losing our best player would reduce our wins wouldn't it? Then add LeBron and he is adding to a reduced number.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:09 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Jules was our best player by many objective metrics wasn't he? He was the common thread in all of our most effective line-ups. Losing our best player would reduce our wins wouldn't it? Then add LeBron and he is adding to a reduced number.


No. Pretty sure it was Lonzo (or Nance until he was traded).
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:13 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

greenfrog wrote:
dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Jules was our best player by many objective metrics wasn't he? He was the common thread in all of our most effective line-ups. Losing our best player would reduce our wins wouldn't it? Then add LeBron and he is adding to a reduced number.


No. Pretty sure it was Lonzo (or Nance until he was traded).


Randle was #1 in PER, #1 in DEFR, #2 in OFR behind Nance. #1 in win shares. Tied for #1 in PPG.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:25 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Jules was our best player by many objective metrics wasn't he? He was the common thread in all of our most effective line-ups. Losing our best player would reduce our wins wouldn't it? Then add LeBron and he is adding to a reduced number.


No. Pretty sure it was Lonzo (or Nance until he was traded).


Randle was #1 in PER, #1 in DEFR, #2 in OFR behind Nance. #1 in win shares. Tied for #1 in PPG.


4th in BPM, 3rd in VORP (behind KCP and Lonzo). PER's pretty outdated.

Lonzo, excluding Nance, led the team in the more impressive (to me) RPM (1.12). Randle's was 0.58.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:06 am    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo model

dont_be_a_wuss wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Jules was our best player by many objective metrics wasn't he? He was the common thread in all of our most effective line-ups. Losing our best player would reduce our wins wouldn't it? Then add LeBron and he is adding to a reduced number.

Yes he was one of the best players, but you ignored the part about "improving young talent." Hart is better than last year's starter. Ingram and Kuzma are better than the 16 ppg that they and Julius gave. Zubac is going to be somewhat better than what he did. So, no, I don't agree that they would be worse than last year. Then, we don't have a G League backup pg, so even if Ball doesn't improve, we get 48 minutes of starter quality at pg. Travis Wear won't get quality minutes. You have a center who can give limited minutes of playing big inside, then Zubac's improvement. If KCP goes back to jail, Stephenson gives similar qualities as a backup, so you have depth at sg. How is that worse than last year? As was mentioned, LeBron has historically improved his teams about 15 games, so if you have a team that wasn't worse, 46 games is based on someone acting as if we have last year's lineup. Unless you consider Zubac a scrub, which I don't since they released Lopez and Bryant instead of him, no scrub should be on the floor at any position this year. You couldn't say that last year. I've never seen a quality bench this deep, ever. The Showtime, or Shaq/Kobe/Pau Lakers would kill for this bench.


Last edited by lakersboy on Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:55 pm    Post subject:

Svi alone will get us 5 extra wins.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:03 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo mode

Inspector Gadget wrote:
adkindo wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Everyone deals with injuries for the most part, and neither Lonzo or Ingram were more than average starters at best last season. Losing a Lebron or Durant to injuries is different, but losing a rookie and 2nd year player for 20-30 games does not really stand out from the average team's annual injury issues. Also, a lot of the production that led to those 35 wins last season is no longer on the roster (Randle, Lopez, Clarkson, Nance, Thomas). Love or hate any or all of those guys....their production still impacted those 35 wins.


Average starters at best? Seriously? Average starters don’t typically Impact games.. once Ingram got injured during the Miami game the team was never the same, even despite the productions of Thomas and others, once Ingram and Ball got injured the team falled apart and had to heavily rely on G-League talent.


Actually average starters do impact games.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:11 pm    Post subject:

Scoffs wrote:
Svi alone will get us 5 extra wins.

That would be wonderful if it were true.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:25 pm    Post subject: Re: 538: Early projected standings & playoff chances according to CARM-Elo mode

venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
adkindo wrote:
lakersboy wrote:
32 wrote:
What Our Way-Too-Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

Lakers are ranked 9th (tied with Denver). Projected record 46-36 (72% chance of making the playoffs)

Quote:
The Lakers are the most improved team in the league according to our model — thanks mostly to that LeBron guy, but also to some of the improving young talent around him.

Let me get this straight. LeBron, plus improving young talent that was easily on pace to win over 40 games before injuries, will now win five more games than that. Ok.


Everyone deals with injuries for the most part, and neither Lonzo or Ingram were more than average starters at best last season. Losing a Lebron or Durant to injuries is different, but losing a rookie and 2nd year player for 20-30 games does not really stand out from the average team's annual injury issues. Also, a lot of the production that led to those 35 wins last season is no longer on the roster (Randle, Lopez, Clarkson, Nance, Thomas). Love or hate any or all of those guys....their production still impacted those 35 wins.


Average starters at best? Seriously? Average starters don’t typically Impact games.. once Ingram got injured during the Miami game the team was never the same, even despite the productions of Thomas and others, once Ingram and Ball got injured the team falled apart and had to heavily rely on G-League talent.


Actually average starters do impact games.


Yes, but in more ways BI and Ball are more then a average starter, they played like guys who would start for most teams in the NBA, if they stayed relatively healthy we would seen the young guys in the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:02 pm    Post subject:

24Legend007 wrote:
I say they get 50 wins.


Major longterm injuries notwithstanding, some of these people on other sites are trippin as to how many losses 32 are. The 1999 team went 31-19, which is akin to 50 wins in 82 total. That season sucked. They took absolute beatdowns over and over, they came back from 29 points in that OT win with the Kobe tapper at GS. Same for 2003, which was a 50-32 season only due to Kobe's late 35-45 pt streak. West is tough, but there's a lot of dreck to prey on as long as they TCB. Fifty is doable with a top 3 (or 1?) player. We'll finally (hopefully) start beating LAC, MIN, POR for just a few examples. Start adding some of those piles of bad losses from last year to 35 wins. They lost their first 10 games against those three teams alone.
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