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Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:36 pm Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:

dcarter4kobe wrote:

Denver was able to unload 19M in salary (Faried+Arther) for only a protected 1st+ and a 2nd on the Nets.

The bottom line is the Lakers valued their picks more than the extra wiggle room we could have had via cap space.

Pretty much. 1 extra pick (or Josh Hart) or 5m in cap space?

Faried and Arther have expiring contracts and will probably play next year for the Nets, assuming that Spencer Dinwiddie allows them to share his court. Deng was not an expiring contract and may or may not be able to play.

Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:39 pm Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:

yinoma2001 wrote:

No.
No.
No.
No.

I disagree I think Ray Allen can help us even at age 43, he was one of those guys that played well and aged like wine.

Even fine wine eventually turns to vinegar.

Inspector Gadget
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:48 pm Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Inspector Gadget wrote:

yinoma2001 wrote:

No.
No.
No.
No.

I disagree I think Ray Allen can help us even at age 43, he was one of those guys that played well and aged like wine.

Even fine wine eventually turns to vinegar.

Apple Vinegar cinnamon is declicious..

pjiddy
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:08 pm Post subject:

dcarter4kobe wrote:

There were more teams with cap space last year. The market to unload a salary is not a fixed thing. That's like KCP turning down 80 million over 5 because he saw Deng getting the same annually and figured he was worth more.

unleasHell
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:11 pm Post subject:

Was Anthony Davis trade rumors already discussed? The talk is that if the Pelicans are sucking, they will look to dump him and go into rebuild mode. Also interesting is that he is or is about to sign with LeBron's agent. If that happens the Lakers should have their bid in for him and as one of the top five players in the NBA, he would not come cheap. So here we go: Ingram KCP Wagner Stephenson 1st Rnd Pick for Anthony Davis Salaries match up nearly perfect. And it would still preserve having about $28mil+ for a free agent next year. The potential 2019-2020 Lakers Line-up could be: PG: Ball SG: Kawhi SF: LeBron PF: Kuzma C: Davis That line-could easily displace the GS Worriers... _________________ “Always remember... Rumors are carried by haters, spread by fools, and accepted by idiots.”

pjiddy
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:27 pm Post subject:

Pels wait at least until next season before they start discussing dumping AD and that's still a big if. It's so rare to get a player of AD's caliber and even less getting one if you're a small market team like NO. Short of the player saying "trade me" or "i'm gone," NO will do everything they can to resign him. Now if you do decide to trade for him, what's the better offer? The Lakers offer? Or: 2019 Kings pick, 2019 Grizz pick, 2020 Clippers pick, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris. They could also offer picks + Al Horford. The Lakers best hope is that NO is optimistic they resign him and he bolts in free agency.

Bard207
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:18 pm Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

yinoma2001 wrote:

dcarter4kobe wrote:

Pretty much. 1 extra pick (or Josh Hart) or 5m in cap space?

I don't understand the logic involved.

From an earlier post

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Bard207 wrote:

That and the other thing is that carrying Deng for $5 million instead of giving up a first or so to completely dump his salary next summer is also a detriment.

This assumes that we could have ditched Deng for a "first or so." I'm sure the FO explored that option. That they stretched him is an indication that it would have cost more than a first or so.

My understanding of Deng's contract prior to the recent moves was:

2018 - 19
$18,000,000

2019 - 20
$18,810,000

Then next summer, wouldn't Deng's contract have just the 2019 - 20 season remaining at $18,810,000 and be an expiring roughly equivalent to the Faried & Arthur expiring contracts that were moved for a first and a second to the Nets this past summer? Granted, Deng might be considered unplayable, but suggesting that it would take a first + Hart to dump $18,810,000 comes across as extreme position to me.

Also:

Quote:

This assumes that we could have ditched Deng for a "first or so." I'm sure the FO explored that option. That they stretched him is an indication that it would have cost more than a first or so.

How would the FO be able to get such a good read on the 2019 salary dumping market in summer 2018?

Quote:

This assumes that we could have ditched Deng for a "first or so." I'm sure the FO explored that option. That they stretched him is an indication that it would have cost more than a first or so.

It is also possible that you completely took my post as moving Deng during the current off season while my post was just to sit and dump him next summer when the cost to do so should be lower than a first + Hart.

I think of myself as one of the more reasonable posters here and in no way would I have thought that a first plus a second would have been enough to have moved Deng this summer for a 2019 expiring which is what your post is suggesting that I thought.

chantruong
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:57 pm Post subject:

pjiddy wrote:

Pels wait at least until next season before they start discussing dumping AD and that's still a big if. It's so rare to get a player of AD's caliber and even less getting one if you're a small market team like NO. Short of the player saying "trade me" or "i'm gone," NO will do everything they can to resign him.

Now if you do decide to trade for him, what's the better offer? The Lakers offer?

Or: 2019 Kings pick, 2019 Grizz pick, 2020 Clippers pick, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Marcus Morris.

They could also offer picks + Al Horford.

The Lakers best hope is that NO is optimistic they resign him and he bolts in free agency.

I heard on an ESPN article before the end of last season that Boston currently can't trade for AD due to trading for Kyrie. Not sure if this is even true or if it really is a deterrent. And like you said, it is highly unlikely that NOLA even consider trading AD until next season. By then, the 2019 Grizz and Sac pick would have materialized. So hopefully those teams make it interesting like us last year and Boston has to make those picks and maybe those guys don't look that impressive. Those picks are slightly more valuble if the team traded to gets to make the pick. Clippers pick is top 15 in 2019 and 2020 then it becomes two second round picks. Good chance the latter happens. Still, they have a wealth of assets.

Let's look at their major trade pieces in 2019-2020 not including own draft picks

Brown
Smart
Selection for Sac Pick or Future Asset
Selection for Grizz Pick or Future Asset
Clippers protected pick
Rozier (re-signed if Kyrie leaves) or Asset (If Kyrie Stays)
Horford (if he opts-in)
Hayward (if he recovers fine)
Williams and other draft selections this year

Boston could easily trump any offer if they include Tatum, but what team would they have left if they did that?

Now ours...

Ingram (Have to sign extension)
Lonzo
Kuzma
Hart
Svi
Moe

I think we provide a compelling offer especially for a rebuilding team. I don't see NOLA having use for a guy like Hayward or Horford. Perhaps they can fetch another pick from them if they include a third team. So sure they would still have the slight edge. Of course there is that Laker hate and same conference factor. However, NOLA did try to trade CP3 to us, so maybe it all comes full circle

I think our offer is competitive and we can afford to gut the entire team assuming we sign KD or KL. Additionally, literally half the teams in the NBA will try to trade for him. Other major contenders for him if he becomes available are Philly and Phoenix imo. If the competition for AD leaves Boston barren then I'm fine by that.

We will see how big of a fetish Boston has for AD. They could do something crazy like include additional unprotected picks to get it done. The possibility of stealing the guy that Boston would literally trade their children for and use him to pass them in championships gets me hyped.

chantruong
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Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:49 pm Post subject:

Critical Error? Did we sign Durant?

Inspector Gadget
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:00 am Post subject:

chantruong wrote:

Critical Error?

Did we sign Durant?

If it’s a real critical error it probably means we traded for Butler

Aeneas Hunter
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Posts: 31763

Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:12 am Post subject:

Bard207 wrote:

Then next summer, wouldn't Deng's contract have just the 2019 - 20 season remaining at $18,810,000 and be an expiring roughly equivalent to the Faried & Arthur expiring contracts that were moved for a first and a second to the Nets this past summer? Granted, Deng might be considered unplayable, but suggesting that it would take a first + Hart to dump $18,810,000 comes across as extreme position to me.

You answered your own question. By the way, it was someone else who said Hart, not me. I think the price would be higher than that. This summer, it probably would have been Ingram, or maybe Kuzma for any teams out there that are drinking the Kool-Aid. Even next summer, the other team would know that they have all the leverage.

Jesusdelonla
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:33 am Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:

chantruong wrote:

Critical Error?

Did we sign Durant?

If it’s a real critical error it probably means we traded for Butler

No. We are not trading for anybody. Let the dream die.

We didn't trade for Kawhi who was willing to come here. we are not wasting our assets on an expirer butler

Baron Von Humongous
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:27 am Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Bard207 wrote:

Not all the leverage, because the Lakers could've stretched Deng.
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trablos
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:00 am Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:

Was Anthony Davis trade rumors already discussed? The talk is that if the Pelicans are sucking, they will look to dump him and go into rebuild mode. Also interesting is that he is or is about to sign with LeBron's agent. If that happens the Lakers should have their bid in for him and as one of the top five players in the NBA, he would not come cheap. So here we go:

Ingram
KCP
Wagner
Stephenson
1st Rnd Pick

for Anthony Davis

Salaries match up nearly perfect. And it would still preserve having about $28mil+ for a free agent next year.

The potential 2019-2020 Lakers Line-up could be:
PG: Ball
SG: Kawhi
SF: LeBron
PF: Kuzma
C: Davis

That line-could easily displace the GS Worriers...

If I were a mass-less entity I'd do this faster than the speed of light.

Villain6Activated
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Posts: 6697

Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:19 am Post subject:

trablos wrote:

unleasHell wrote:

If I were a mass-less entity I'd do this faster than the speed of light.

Pelicans easily get Lonzo or Kuzma in addition to Ingram.
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trablos
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:28 am Post subject:

Rivershow wrote:

Judah wrote:

cyborgspider wrote:

Inspector Gadget wrote:

Looks like we could have had J.J. Reddick

https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchpoints.com/lakers-news-sixers-j-j-redick-says-he-had-an-opportunity-to-sign-with-los-angeles/amp/

Would have been a nice fit on this roster

I don't know. Seems like Rob was alright with the outcome:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24070278/los-angeles-lakers-gm-rob-pelinka-built-team-differently-lebron-james

"There's been this kind of surge of 'Hey, where are the shooters?'" Pelinka explained. "To me, that's a little bit of a misnomer because, again, we wanted a particular type of shooter. When we looked at the free-agent list, the elite shooters ... guys who have had max deals as shooters are in the 38 to 42 percent range in 3-point shooting. I'm talking elite shooters. If you look at last year, [he goes on to lists all the Lakers 3P%.].

"So just because we didn't sign sort of the poster-child shooter that is a specialist and can just make shots, we felt like we assembled a cast of guys that can really shoot the ball but also defend and be versatile. ...

It's going to be very, very interesting to see how this plays out. I'm expecting them to be dead last in both free throw percentage and three-point percentage. As bad as they were last year, they could very easily be even worse this year.

I doubt it. If you look at it objectively there is potential in that area for good production. Kuzma and Hart are good three point shooters and I expect them to get easier looks with Lebron on the team. Lebron himself is a great 3pt shooter, the only perception there is that you think he isn't good. Randle isn't here anymore so he won't bring down the average because of his 10 3s in a season that he usually does. Svi is an elite 3pt and he has a good chance of it translating to the next level. Beasley's numbers are also great and he will get the opportunities if they are there.

I really don't see the argument where we could be the same or worse in 3pt shooting as a team.

There was a great write-up on reddit as to why our roster is constructed to actually be a better shooting team this year.

Quote:

The Lakers' lack of three point shooting has been long talked about this off season, and I wanted to take a deep dive to see how true this is.

Disclaimer: This is a very primitive way of evaluating a team's shooting. I don't have access to high quality statistical models so I am going to do most of my work on a calculator and bball ref. Consider this an estimate, it will in no way be completely accurate. The rough estimates are assuming every player shoots exactly the same as last season. This won't happen but I am just using those numbers as the "floor" of my argument.

Predicting the Minutes

Having an estimate of the minute spread is going to be crucial in predicting 3pt shooting because players shoot at different rates, thus a player that gets more minutes has a bigger influence on the 3pt shooting percentages. I'm not using anything special to predict minutes, just going to look at last season's numbers and alter them a bit. This is a rough estimate, and mostly my prediction of the minutes slot. What is important to note is that traditional centers are going to be low because the Lakers seem committed to run without a 5 for parts of the game, based on this article and their roster signings.

Player MPG
Lonzo 28
Hart 27
Ingram 33
Lebron 32
Javale 15
Kuzma 27
KCP 25
Rondo 24
Zubac/Wagner 15
Beasley 9
Lance 5
What becomes evident as I type this out is how deep the Lakers seem to be. I even had to leave out Svi because unless the team is hit with injury, I'm not sure if Luke would let him break into the squad. Preferably I would have him take all of Lance's minutes.

Lakers don't have high end talent other than Lebron, but they're legit 12 men deep. To me, keeping the minutes balanced seems to make the most sense with this roster. LeBron would also be playing a career low amount of minutes to help preserve his body for the next 4 years. Also, I hope Luke wises up and only dares to play Lance 5 minutes a game.

3pt Totals

Player 3PM 3PA
Lonzo 1.433 4.667
Hart 1.441 3.639
Ingram .702 1.80
Lebron 1.591 4.336
Rondo .702 2.106
KCP 1.615 4.217
Kuzma 1.774 4.846
Beasley .191 .484
Lance .179 .619
Zubac/Wagner NA NA
Javale 0 0
Team Totals 9.628 26.714
Final 3PT% - 36.04%

Making sense of the results

The first thing that pops out at you is that the Lakers actually improved their 3pt% this offseason by 1.34%. This is such a drastic improvement that it takes them all the way from 29th place to 18th. The reason for this is because Lakers got rid of their worst shooters in Randle and Ennis and replaced their minutes with far better shooters in LeBron and Rondo.

Now as I said earlier, these results were calculated assuming that 1) every player shoots 3's at the same rate and 2) every player makes 3's at the same percentage. Now this will obviously not happen again because of variance. The case I am making, is that this 18th place is more of a floor for this Lakers's squad. Lonzo, BI, Kuzma and Hart all can be reasonably expected to become better three point shooters next year, especially playing with someone like LeBron that attracts more attention. Also, Lance and Rondo both had their worst shooting seasons of the past three years, it can be reasonable to expect them to return back to form. I predict that the Lakers' will be no worse than the 18th placed three point shooting team.

The biggest drag by far on the shooting percentages was Lonzo. BI also being so passive hurts the team percentages. To play around a bit, I wanted to see what would happen if Lonzo became a slightly below league average shooter and if BI upped his attempts by 0.5. These two events would take the Lakers up to 36.82%. These two improvements alone would take LA up to 11th place. This further proves the point that if the Lakers youngsters, especially Lonzo, improve their 3pt% then they could potentially vault into the top 10. Even just small improvements on their three point shooting will make the Lakers a better than average shooting team.

What does seem alarming is that a lot of Lakers do not take threes at a high rate. Their roughly estimated 3PA would place them just inside the bottom 10. Players like Ingram, Hart, Rondo and Beasley will need to up their attempts in order to get to a competitive 3PA.

Also, it's worth noting that I did not try to predict the shooting of Svi or Wagner since it will be hard to predict a rookies 3pt% and because they probably won't get enough minutes to where their shooting makes an impact. If any one of them can break into the rotation with some good shooting, it would help the Lakers a ton. Keep an eye out on if Svi can break the rotation on the strength of his shooting.

TLDR: The Lakers project to be a middling three point shooting team but they have some good room for upside thanks to improvement of their young players and their incoming rookies. Their floor is around the 18th place but it is likely they place better than that. In one scenario, if Lonzo improves his shooting to be around league average, that can vault LA into almost being top 10. Realistically, Lakers have the ability to place slightly better than average and be around 12th-15th. Their lack of shooting is way overstated.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/90rq1e/oc_taking_a_look_at_the_lakers_spacing/?st=jm3pe8g2&sh=2859cc0f

Vanquish
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:44 am Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Bard207 wrote:

Not all the leverage, because the Lakers could've stretched Deng.

I glanced at the numbers on the first page of this topic. If we had stretched Deng next summer, wouldn't we would still have been $277,736.00 short in offering a max contract to >10 year Max FA if we keep our first round pick?

So we would have to either

(i) trade our pick next year in addition to stretching Deng, which would give our trading partner leverage OR

(ii) trade Deng, which would also give our trading partner leverage OR

(iii) Sacrifice two of our 2018 draft picks in Svi and Bonga and replace their cost controlled production/potential with 2 merry minimums - I hear the machine is plotting a comeback - on hopefully one year deals.

I can see why the lakers might not find any of these 3 choices palatable and would rather buy out Deng now instead.

Baron Von Humongous
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:00 am Post subject:

Vanquish wrote:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:

Bard207 wrote:

Not all the leverage, because the Lakers could've stretched Deng.

If Kevin Durant wants to come, why not just jettison Bonga in that incredibly unlikely scenario? Maybe they should've thought of that extra $277,736 before trading Chicago's 2019 2nd to move into the 2018 2nd round to select a long-term project who should've been stashed for another two years before starting his NBA clock, anyway.
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Aeneas Hunter
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:37 pm Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:

Ingram
KCP
Wagner
Stephenson
1st Rnd Pick

for Anthony Davis

That’s basically Ingram and a late first round pick for Anthony Davis. David Stern would come out of retirement, take control of the Pelicans, and veto that trade.

eureca
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:48 pm Post subject:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm Post subject:

eureca wrote:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

I believe he is the most likely player to sign with us in free agency next summer.

Baron Von Humongous
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:36 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

eureca wrote:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

I believe he is the most likely player to sign with us in free agency next summer.

Dagnabit, I want a healthy Kawhi.
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ChickenStu
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:38 pm Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

eureca wrote:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

I believe he is the most likely player to sign with us in free agency next summer.

Dagnabit, I want a healthy Kawhi.

I just don't think he picks us. I think Michael Wright has been, pardon the pun, right this whole time. I think he prefers the Clippers to us. (Or his uncle does. Whatever.)

Baron Von Humongous
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:37 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

eureca wrote:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

I believe he is the most likely player to sign with us in free agency next summer.

Dagnabit, I want a healthy Kawhi.

I just don't think he picks us. I think Michael Wright has been, pardon the pun, right this whole time. I think he prefers the Clippers to us. (Or his uncle does. Whatever.)

We'll see what the new year brings, but it's wild that he would walk away from an EC contender in Toronto and eschew a potential championship contender with the Lakers for what would be a fringe playoff roster on the Clippers.

Wrt Jimmy Butler, I admire the heck out of the guy and I think he's a better #1 option than someone like Paul George, but his fit with Lebron is questionable, he's seemingly alienated every young guy on the Wolves roster, and his body may be a ticking Thibs-bomb. He'd be #5 on my top Lakers free agent list, but the Lakers would still be incredibly lucky to have him despite his issues.

*sigh* Stupid Spurs.
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eureca
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Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:08 pm Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:

ChickenStu wrote:

eureca wrote:

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Sources: Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler has begun to seriously contemplate his future with the franchise. Our @JonKrawczynski reports Butler and Thibodeau will meet on Monday.

Quote:

@ShamsCharania

Butler meets with President/head coach Tom Thibodeau and Minnesota officials this week. Uncertainty has surrounded Butler and the team as the All-Star enters contract year.

I believe he is the most likely player to sign with us in free agency next summer.

Dagnabit, I want a healthy Kawhi.

I just don't think he picks us. I think Michael Wright has been, pardon the pun, right this whole time. I think he prefers the Clippers to us. (Or his uncle does. Whatever.)

Maybe he will, but I don't think it is lock either way. Will the Lakers get a meeting this time is the question. If they do you have Lebron/Magic/Rob in a room with Kawhi. You have Kobe possibly putting in some calls. If Kawhi is trying to make money off the court like it is reported then who better to mentor him about off the court stuff than Magic and Lebron? In terms of just winning if it is between the two LA teams then I think Lakers have the lead.

How bad does he want his own team? He could have had that in San Antonio with the super max contract. What does he expect to get being the best player on the Clippers? Some endorsements? Doubtful it would make up the money he left in San Antonio. He left that loyal Spurs fanbase, super max for the Clippers? He left the team(Spurs) with the best winning percentage in NBA history for the 23rd best winning percentage team(Clippers) ever?

If he does he does it just doesn't make much sense to me. I would rather stay with the Raptors personally.

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