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Baron Von Humongous
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 Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| chantruong wrote: | | SPO200 wrote: | | Baron Von Humongous wrote: |
Celtics TPE |
Can you just send picks and use the TPE? |
Yes, but it likely takes a first and we all know how stingy Ainge is. |
Maybe not even a 1st. The Cavs didn't give up much for Drummond and there are few landing spots for him with a contract that large.
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cital
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Surprised there is no talk about Dedmon to the Nets, they need another center bad and should have that Dinwiddie exception to use... |
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chantruong
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| cital wrote: | | Surprised there is no talk about Dedmon to the Nets, they need another center bad and should have that Dinwiddie exception to use... |
He's a vet min player at this point and he hasn't been picked up for almost two months. I think they are waiting for McGee or Ed Davis to get bought out or they can trade for a minimal asset |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | wolfpaclaker wrote: | | Simmons value is defense, IMO. He is able to defend positions 1-4. You are right, on offense he may be overrated. But that is not why I would trade for him..... it is for his ability to defend positions 1-4, switch, help, rotate. Houston badly needs an elite defender. Wall has never even played with an elite defender. FWIW all of Simmons advanced defensive stats and his all-NBA selections for NBA defensive teams show his value as a top 5 defender in the NBA. On offense, there may well be 50 more valuable players than Simmons (based on his role playing around Embiid). But on defense, after AD and Giannis, he is the 3rd most valuable defender in the NBA, IMO. |
Well, in fact many of the metrics say that he is overrated on defense. For example, last year he ranked 60th among PGs with a DRPM of -0.85. The previous year he ranked 79th among with a DRPM of -0.99. I've seen other metrics that are more favorable to Simmons, but none of them show him to be an elite defender. I'm never going to tell you that metrics are definitive of anything, but neither is the eyeball test, especially when it comes to defense. |
I mean he was voted All Defensive 1st Team for a reason. And I can't tell you how many times basketball analytics nerds have said the defensive stats are woefully incomplete and don't capture a players full effect on that end of the floor.
It's why Michael Mulder, Jokic and Isaac Bonga had higher DRPM's than Giannis last year. |
Sure, defensive stats are woefully incomplete. That's why the better defensive metrics are based on plus-minus data, not on defensive stats. Simmons racks up a lot of defensive statistics (rebounds, steals, etc.), but the plus-minus data consistently tells us that Simmons' defensive impact is far less than his box score stats would suggest.
Jokic has a much higher DRPM because he is a center. In general, big men have a greater defensive impact than perimeter players. This is why I cited Simmons' rating compared to other PGs. Mulder played 7 games and a total of 204 minutes. Metrics need a larger sample size than that. Bonga is a really good defensive player at SF, so I'm not sure why you list him.
As for the all-defensive team, reputation still plays a big role. I can remember the annual rolling of eyes on this board when Kobe would get picked to the all-defensive team in the '00s. Sure, Simmons has a reputation as a good defender.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | wolfpaclaker wrote: | | Simmons value is defense, IMO. He is able to defend positions 1-4. You are right, on offense he may be overrated. But that is not why I would trade for him..... it is for his ability to defend positions 1-4, switch, help, rotate. Houston badly needs an elite defender. Wall has never even played with an elite defender. FWIW all of Simmons advanced defensive stats and his all-NBA selections for NBA defensive teams show his value as a top 5 defender in the NBA. On offense, there may well be 50 more valuable players than Simmons (based on his role playing around Embiid). But on defense, after AD and Giannis, he is the 3rd most valuable defender in the NBA, IMO. |
Well, in fact many of the metrics say that he is overrated on defense. For example, last year he ranked 60th among PGs with a DRPM of -0.85. The previous year he ranked 79th among with a DRPM of -0.99. I've seen other metrics that are more favorable to Simmons, but none of them show him to be an elite defender. I'm never going to tell you that metrics are definitive of anything, but neither is the eyeball test, especially when it comes to defense. |
I mean he was voted All Defensive 1st Team for a reason. And I can't tell you how many times basketball analytics nerds have said the defensive stats are woefully incomplete and don't capture a players full effect on that end of the floor.
It's why Michael Mulder, Jokic and Isaac Bonga had higher DRPM's than Giannis last year. |
Sure, defensive stats are woefully incomplete. That's why the better defensive metrics are based on plus-minus data, not on defensive stats. Simmons racks up a lot of defensive statistics (rebounds, steals, etc.), but the plus-minus data consistently tells us that Simmons' defensive impact is far less than his box score stats would suggest.
Jokic has a much higher DRPM because he is a center. In general, big men have a greater defensive impact than perimeter players. This is why I cited Simmons' rating compared to other PGs. Mulder played 7 games and a total of 204 minutes. Metrics need a larger sample size than that. Bonga is a really good defensive player at SF, so I'm not sure why you list him.
As for the all-defensive team, reputation still plays a big role. I can remember the annual rolling of eyes on this board when Kobe would get picked to the all-defensive team in the '00s. Sure, Simmons has a reputation as a good defender. |
They aren't incomplete because plus minus data is better. They are incomplete because teams have different defensive schemes and even if you go position by position. One PG isn't asked to do the same things defensively as another. Some teams prioritize offensive rebounding moreso than transition defense. Some teams run different P&R coverages than others because their big men vary or the footspeed and length of help defenders vary.
Plus minus is dependent on who is out there with that one player. And I mean Giannis played alot of minutes as a defensive Center (when Brook sat and Robin wasn't in the rotation) last year. And Jokic did play minutes with Millsap and Plumlee where he wasn't asked to defend like other Centers around the league.
I listed Bonga because you'd have to be high to think he was a better defender than Giannis last year.
Maybe you're right and the voters on All-defensive team are wrong. Bonga > Giannis defensively. And Anthony Davis last year was the 150th best defender in the league, and 29th best PF defender in the league (according to DRPM). Or maybe, you are undervaluing Simmons defense.
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LakerSD
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:36 am Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | They aren't incomplete because plus minus data is better. They are incomplete because teams have different defensive schemes and even if you go position by position. One PG isn't asked to do the same things defensively as another. Some teams prioritize offensive rebounding moreso than transition defense. Some teams run different P&R coverages than others because their big men vary or the footspeed and length of help defenders vary.
Plus minus is dependent on who is out there with that one player. And I mean Giannis played alot of minutes as a defensive Center (when Brook sat and Robin wasn't in the rotation) last year. And Jokic did play minutes with Millsap and Plumlee where he wasn't asked to defend like other Centers around the league.
I listed Bonga because you'd have to be high to think he was a better defender than Giannis last year.
Maybe you're right and the voters on All-defensive team are wrong. Bonga > Giannis defensively. And Anthony Davis last year was the 150th best defender in the league, and 29th best PF defender in the league (according to DRPM). Or maybe, you are undervaluing Simmons defense. |
On your first point, modern metrics like RAPM, RPM, and the like control for who is on the court with the player. These are not raw plus-minus stats. If someone is truly an elite defender, then this should be measurable by defensive impact, regardless of the scheme that the team runs.
As for Bonga, he's a role player who played 18.9 mpg last year. If he played starter's minutes and maintained the same level of defensive effectiveness, he would likely be viewed very differently. Comparing starters to bench players is always going to be problematic.
As for Davis, I've commented on this point in the past. RPM has never rated his defense as highly as people would expect. However, other metrics do in fact rate him highly. As of now, I haven't seen any metrics that do this for Simmons.
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audioaxes
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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Im still pissed the Rockets didnt force the Nets to give up Joe Harris. They'd have a very respectable starting 5 of:
Wall
Oladipo
Harris
Tucker
Wood
and at the same time weaken the Nets by taking a key piece away from them which in return will give them better draft picks in the future
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chantruong
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| audioaxes wrote: | Im still pissed the Rockets didnt force the Nets to give up Joe Harris. They'd have a very respectable starting 5 of:
Wall
Oladipo
Harris
Tucker
Wood
and at the same time weaken the Nets by taking a key piece away from them which in return will give them better draft picks in the future |
Joe Harris isn't eligible to be traded for a whileI think. Maybe they could have waited but that situation was getting dicey in Houston. They essentially traded Prince and Kurocs (decent filler) in place of Dinwiddie. |
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RI Laker
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Harden is going to love the pizza and bagels in Brooklyn. |
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miggz23
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Baron Von Humongous
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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| RI Laker wrote: | | Harden is going to love the pizza and bagels in Brooklyn. |
The strip clubs are topless only, though.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | kikanga wrote: | They aren't incomplete because plus minus data is better. They are incomplete because teams have different defensive schemes and even if you go position by position. One PG isn't asked to do the same things defensively as another. Some teams prioritize offensive rebounding moreso than transition defense. Some teams run different P&R coverages than others because their big men vary or the footspeed and length of help defenders vary.
Plus minus is dependent on who is out there with that one player. And I mean Giannis played alot of minutes as a defensive Center (when Brook sat and Robin wasn't in the rotation) last year. And Jokic did play minutes with Millsap and Plumlee where he wasn't asked to defend like other Centers around the league.
I listed Bonga because you'd have to be high to think he was a better defender than Giannis last year.
Maybe you're right and the voters on All-defensive team are wrong. Bonga > Giannis defensively. And Anthony Davis last year was the 150th best defender in the league, and 29th best PF defender in the league (according to DRPM). Or maybe, you are undervaluing Simmons defense. |
On your first point, modern metrics like RAPM, RPM, and the like control for who is on the court with the player. These are not raw plus-minus stats. If someone is truly an elite defender, then this should be measurable by defensive impact, regardless of the scheme that the team runs.
As for Bonga, he's a role player who played 18.9 mpg last year. If he played starter's minutes and maintained the same level of defensive effectiveness, he would likely be viewed very differently. Comparing starters to bench players is always going to be problematic.
As for Davis, I've commented on this point in the past. RPM has never rated his defense as highly as people would expect. However, other metrics do in fact rate him highly. As of now, I haven't seen any metrics that do this for Simmons. |
Just google Ben Simmons defensive metrics. And this is the 2nd thing that popped up.
| Quote: | Like mentioned earlier, Simmons is an absolute machine on defense. Here are some of his ranks in 2019-2020:
1st in steals (115)
1st in steals per game (2.1)
2nd in deflections (216)
3rd in deflections per game (4)
3rd in steal percentage (2.9%)
13th in Defensive Wins Shares (3.1)
7th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus at plus-2.5. |
https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2020/05/07/dpoy-making-the-case-for-ben-simmons/
This is the 3rd:
| Quote: | 84.4
According to data collected by Krishna Narsu of Nylon Calculus and Patrick Miller of The BBall Index, that represents Simmons' defensive versatility rating from the 2019-20 season.
Why is that notable? It's one of the highest rates in the entire league.
Based on that same data, there are only nine players who have been more versatile defensively than Simmons this season. However, of those nine players, only six are currently a part of their respective team's rotation. |
https://www.sportingnews.com/au/nba/news/stat-just-happened-putting-the-defensive-versatility-of-ben-simmons-into-perspective/8qp4sp31opeo1rnshmkcsg66t
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ksmgf
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerSD wrote: | https://twitter.com/thehoopcentral/status/1349794067316690947?s=21
Is this a Nets executive?  |
Is BI better than Simmons right now? |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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| kikanga wrote: | Just google Ben Simmons defensive metrics. And this is the 2nd thing that popped up.
| Quote: | Like mentioned earlier, Simmons is an absolute machine on defense. Here are some of his ranks in 2019-2020:
1st in steals (115)
1st in steals per game (2.1)
2nd in deflections (216)
3rd in deflections per game (4)
3rd in steal percentage (2.9%)
13th in Defensive Wins Shares (3.1)
7th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus at plus-2.5. |
https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2020/05/07/dpoy-making-the-case-for-ben-simmons/
This is the 3rd:
| Quote: | 84.4
According to data collected by Krishna Narsu of Nylon Calculus and Patrick Miller of The BBall Index, that represents Simmons' defensive versatility rating from the 2019-20 season.
Why is that notable? It's one of the highest rates in the entire league.
Based on that same data, there are only nine players who have been more versatile defensively than Simmons this season. However, of those nine players, only six are currently a part of their respective team's rotation. |
https://www.sportingnews.com/au/nba/news/stat-just-happened-putting-the-defensive-versatility-of-ben-simmons-into-perspective/8qp4sp31opeo1rnshmkcsg66t |
1. There is a difference between stats and modern metrics. This is particularly acute when we discuss defense because, as you previously pointed out, defensive stats are deficient. In many cases, both good defense and bad defense produce no stat. You can be standing twenty feet from the play doing nothing active, yet be playing good defense simply because you are where you are supposed to be. Or you can be playing bad defense because you aren’t where you are supposed to be. By the way, DWS and DBPM are based on box score stats and are useful only because they are readily available.
2. Defensive versatility has value, for sure. Yet other versatile defenders, like Draymond Green, produce a greater measurable effect.
3. I’m talked out on Ben Simmons. I’ve acknowledged that my viewpoint is in the minority. I may not have persuaded you, and perhaps time will prove that I’m dead wrong. Just be aware that there is an opposing viewpoint.
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Megaton
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:03 pm Post subject: |
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| ksmgf wrote: | | LakerSD wrote: | https://twitter.com/thehoopcentral/status/1349794067316690947?s=21
Is this a Nets executive? |
Is BI better than Simmons right now? |
BI is more versatile scorer but thats pretty much it. Simmons is a all nba defender and passer.
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DrDent
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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| RI Laker wrote: | | Harden is going to love the pizza and bagels in Brooklyn. |
Pepperoni please. |
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KingKobe20
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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I take back what I said yesterday about Houston Sports at an all time low.
Great win for the Rockets lead by Christian “Mamba Mentality” Wood. 27 and 15 destroying the Spurs.
So Harden and Deshaun Watson can kick rocks, the city still got their superstar in Christian Wood |
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Inspector Gadget
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| KingKobe20 wrote: | I take back what I said yesterday about Houston Sports at an all time low.
Great win for the Rockets lead by Christian “Mamba Mentality” Wood. 27 and 15 destroying the Spurs.
So Harden and Deshaun Watson can kick rocks, the city still got their superstar in Christian Wood |
They can also flip Oladipo for quality players, wouldn’t be surprised if Rockets sneak into the playoffs. |
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drae
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Inspector Gadget wrote: | | KingKobe20 wrote: | I take back what I said yesterday about Houston Sports at an all time low.
Great win for the Rockets lead by Christian “Mamba Mentality” Wood. 27 and 15 destroying the Spurs.
So Harden and Deshaun Watson can kick rocks, the city still got their superstar in Christian Wood |
They can also flip Oladipo for quality players, wouldn’t be surprised if Rockets sneak into the playoffs. |
The also have some first round picks again after blowing them all on Westbrook |
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Inspector Gadget
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| drae wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | KingKobe20 wrote: | I take back what I said yesterday about Houston Sports at an all time low.
Great win for the Rockets lead by Christian “Mamba Mentality” Wood. 27 and 15 destroying the Spurs.
So Harden and Deshaun Watson can kick rocks, the city still got their superstar in Christian Wood |
They can also flip Oladipo for quality players, wouldn’t be surprised if Rockets sneak into the playoffs. |
The also have some first round picks again after blowing them all on Westbrook |
Yeah I can see the Rockets going after Bradley Beal with all those 1st round picks. |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| governator wrote: | | Dreamshake wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | mad55557777 wrote: |
The Morey factor |
Maybe, but it says to me that the Rockets don't value Simmons as much as some of you do. I happen to agree. It's a minority viewpoint, as least as of right now, but I think Simmons may be the single most overrated player in the league. It's not that he's bad, but that he is rated as a superstar. The metrics don't rate him as a top 50 player, and he's starting a five year max contract. If I were the Rockets, I wouldn't be so eager to snatch him. Maybe you'll be able to laugh at us in a couple years, but maybe not. |
It's the $$ factor. The owner converted Harden to an expiring contract and future draft picks. Covid is crushing him. The team is still using game cups from last season. |
were you surprised at the return dreamshake? would you have preferred Ben Simmons (I think Simmons is the better than Levert or Oladipo)? |
I’m not surprised the owner chose to save $$. I woulda preferred Simmons. |
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carjoch831
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Clutch Sources
@clutchsources
The Cleveland Cavaliers are exploring trades for Javale McGee, per @WindhorstESPN |
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Dreamshake
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Inspector Gadget wrote: | | KingKobe20 wrote: | I take back what I said yesterday about Houston Sports at an all time low.
Great win for the Rockets lead by Christian “Mamba Mentality” Wood. 27 and 15 destroying the Spurs.
So Harden and Deshaun Watson can kick rocks, the city still got their superstar in Christian Wood |
They can also flip Oladipo for quality players, wouldn’t be surprised if Rockets sneak into the playoffs. |
I hope we trade Oladipo and tank. If we finish top 4 OKC doesn’t get our pick swap. |
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KingKobe20
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| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| carjoch831 wrote: | | Quote: | Clutch Sources
@clutchsources
The Cleveland Cavaliers are exploring trades for Javale McGee, per @WindhorstESPN |
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I do believe if Javale gets traded and bought out he can resign back with us?
By the Cavs trading him I believe that disables our one year block of him being able to come back to the Lakers?
Either way would love to have him back to help us out during the regular season as I also got this feeling that Kevin Durant and Brooklyn might go after him.
Of course all this pending that he gets bought out and if that one year block gets relinquished. |
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