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hype
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:05 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hype wrote:
For real, it's beyond pointless to try and say anything we've seen from Lebron is a clear indication he's on a decline this season. This is nothing new for Bron to start the year slow and work himself into the Season. I get injury concerns are at a much higher level obviously with his age and considering the last 3 or so seasons. I also am willing to bet he'll look like a clear top 5-10 player if healthy at the end of this season and into the Playoffs. Him remaining healthy is a big concern though from here on out and the only thing stopping him from still being a top player still at seasons end imo.


It's not a question of a sudden decline, and it isn't linked to his health. This is a consistent long-term trend that extends back over five years. We've just gotten to the point where it's hard to ignore.

I posted the numbers in one of these threads. Since his title season in Cleveland in 2016, the percentage of his shots that are within three feet of the rim has dropped, and the percentage of his shots from three has gone up. This has been a slow, consistent trend. This season, over 40% of his shots are threes. That number may go down a little as the season progresses, but it confirms what a lot of us had noticed -- Lebron doesn't attack the rim as much anymore. His rebounding is down, too, though that may just be a sample size issue.

Lebron turns 37 next month. There is nothing truly shocking about seeing an aging player become more of a perimeter shooter. But a lot of people seem to be waiting for him to flip the switch and go back to playing like he did in his prime. We may be past that point.


I agree 100% with what you're saying.. I was mostly referring to people saying he isn't capable of being a great player anymore.. Obviously, he's declining as he ages and has been becoming more of a perimeter player each year as a Laker.. I dont even need stats for that (still appreciated being able to see them from your post as like you said, it cements those thoughts as facts), it's very obvious for anyone that watches all the games. Is he still capable of being the best player in the NBA when he flips that switch towards the end of the season like he normally does? I'm leaning towards that not being the case going forward but I can still see him absolutely being a top 5-10 player "if" injuries don't continue to keep him down which is a complete unknown after the last few years. Just last season before the freak injury from Hill he was a top candidate for MVP so while I don't expect that to happen again I also don't see a huge drop off.

It seems like we're actually somewhat on the same page.. I don't think he's quite capable of being the best player in the NBA anymore but I also don't think he's close to being "done" either. There were people saying he couldn't even get past defenders anymore 1on1 which is kind of ridiculous and he has shown since he absolutely can. Should/Can he do that all game long like he did in his prime? Absolutely not, that will be a recipe for disaster and a likely injury before too long (which probably caused his last injury). Obviously he also can't do it nearly as well as he could before but all i'm saying is that he is still absolutely capable of it but like you pointed out he has become much more cautious of this and hangs around the perimeter more and more each season as he grows older which I agree with and think is the smart approach.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:13 pm    Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:
Simmons to Sac???

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The Athletic NBA
@TheAthleticNBA

Is De’Aaron Fox still the right guy to build around in Sacramento?

It’s not looking that way at the moment, @sam_amick writes.

“And if things don’t improve anytime soon, it’ll be interesting to see the ripple effect on the roster.”

More: https://bit.ly/3oRaa7K


Things won’t improve until the team is sold. Ownership/management is the problem there.
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logical24
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:45 pm    Post subject:

Would you guys trade THT/Nunn/Filler for Grant?

A closing lineup of:
RW
Monk
Grant
LeBron
AD

Scary times!
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:56 pm    Post subject:

hype wrote:
I dont even need stats for that (still appreciated being able to see them from your post as like you said, it cements those thoughts as facts), it's very obvious for anyone that watches all the games.


I'm posting this just because it is sort of interesting. I chopped down the table to eliminate all the noise from other stats. There are three columns: average distance of shot, percentage of shots within 3 feet, and percentage of shots from three. In this particular respect, 2016 was a peak season.

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/8W3qI
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hype
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:07 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hype wrote:
I dont even need stats for that (still appreciated being able to see them from your post as like you said, it cements those thoughts as facts), it's very obvious for anyone that watches all the games.


I'm posting this just because it is sort of interesting. I chopped down the table to eliminate all the noise from other stats. There are three columns: average distance of shot, percentage of shots within 3 feet, and percentage of shots from three. In this particular respect, 2016 was a peak season.

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/8W3qI


Yeah, I was trying to make my comment not come off as being snarky which I didn't intend. I appreciate the little details like those stats because I wouldn't have guessed it was THAT big of a decline since he kind of eased into it from season to season since 2016 especially.

Luckily he's become a drastically better shooter then he was early on but obviously it's not the same as him attacking the basket relentlessly.

Out of curiosity, could you do the exact same stats but only for the Playoffs? I'd be interested to see what that looks like as in my head it seems like it would not be nearly the same kind of decline as we see in the regular season numbers.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:28 pm    Post subject:

Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 1:59 pm    Post subject:

hype wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hype wrote:
I dont even need stats for that (still appreciated being able to see them from your post as like you said, it cements those thoughts as facts), it's very obvious for anyone that watches all the games.


I'm posting this just because it is sort of interesting. I chopped down the table to eliminate all the noise from other stats. There are three columns: average distance of shot, percentage of shots within 3 feet, and percentage of shots from three. In this particular respect, 2016 was a peak season.

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/8W3qI


Yeah, I was trying to make my comment not come off as being snarky which I didn't intend. I appreciate the little details like those stats because I wouldn't have guessed it was THAT big of a decline since he kind of eased into it from season to season since 2016 especially.

Luckily he's become a drastically better shooter then he was early on but obviously it's not the same as him attacking the basket relentlessly.

Out of curiosity, could you do the exact same stats but only for the Playoffs? I'd be interested to see what that looks like as in my head it seems like it would not be nearly the same kind of decline as we see in the regular season numbers.


You are correct. You can still see the same trends, but he goes to the rim more in the playoffs. In 2020, his shots within 3 feet went from .365 to .393. Oh, and you didn't come off as snarky.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=5O1tH
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:36 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.
Grant?

Really good defender, athletic, but not that good of a shooter. 40% shooter, 33% 3 pointer shooter. That's on the surface. I would like him for his wing defense. Athletic, Good slasher, and wide open shooter. I haven't watched much of him to see how his IQ is though and his playmaking ability, on or off the ball. I would like him because he would be an upgrade, but may be a downgrade in depth; it would depend on who we give up. He makes 20 mill. Just throwing that out there.


Last edited by Outspoken on Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:48 pm; edited 5 times in total
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bluehill
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 2:39 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hype wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
hype wrote:
I dont even need stats for that (still appreciated being able to see them from your post as like you said, it cements those thoughts as facts), it's very obvious for anyone that watches all the games.


I'm posting this just because it is sort of interesting. I chopped down the table to eliminate all the noise from other stats. There are three columns: average distance of shot, percentage of shots within 3 feet, and percentage of shots from three. In this particular respect, 2016 was a peak season.

http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/8W3qI


Yeah, I was trying to make my comment not come off as being snarky which I didn't intend. I appreciate the little details like those stats because I wouldn't have guessed it was THAT big of a decline since he kind of eased into it from season to season since 2016 especially.

Luckily he's become a drastically better shooter then he was early on but obviously it's not the same as him attacking the basket relentlessly.

Out of curiosity, could you do the exact same stats but only for the Playoffs? I'd be interested to see what that looks like as in my head it seems like it would not be nearly the same kind of decline as we see in the regular season numbers.


You are correct. You can still see the same trends, but he goes to the rim more in the playoffs. In 2020, his shots within 3 feet went from .365 to .393. Oh, and you didn't come off as snarky.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/tools/share.fcgi?id=5O1tH


I think this is a subtlety that sometimes gets confused for hating and this goes back to Kobe's last years. LeBron is still a great player, but age and injury are starting to take their toll. It's a credit to LeBron's focus on conditioning that his decline has not been more significant. (I've got more concerns about how quickly AD is going to decline.)

However, those small differences seem like they could be significant at the margins. What impact does that mix shift from 0-3 ft shots towards 3+ plus feet shots mean in terms of shooting percentages, drawing fouls, offensive rebounds, spacing for 3 pt shooters? It seems like it would have some impact. I don't know if 2021 LeBron could take that 2016 Cavs team as far as 2016 LeBron did.
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J.C. Smith
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:02 pm    Post subject:

Outspoken wrote:
Really good defender, athletic, but not that good of a shooter. 40% shooter, 33% 3 pointer shooter. That's on the surface. I would like him for his wing defense. Athletic, Good slasher, and wide open shooter. I haven't watched much of him to see how his IQ is though and his playmaking ability, on or off the ball. I would like him because he would be an upgrade, but may be a downgrade in depth; it would depend on who we give up. He makes 20 mill. Just throwing that out there.


He's not normally a 40/33 guy though. His last few years:

13.6 points on 49.7% fg, 39.2% 3p with OKC
12 points on 47.8% fg, 38.9% 3p with Nuggets
22.3 points on 42.9% fg, 35% 3p with Pistons
19.3 points on 40.9% fg, 33.3% 3p with Pistons so far this year

In Detroit he's been asked to take on a larger scoring role and as his shot attempts have gone up his efficiency has gone down. He seems to be better suited as an off ball 3 and d guy.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 3:32 pm    Post subject:

Outspoken wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.
Grant?

Really good defender, athletic, but not that good of a shooter. 40% shooter, 33% 3 pointer shooter. That's on the surface. I would like him for his wing defense. Athletic, Good slasher, and wide open shooter. I haven't watched much of him to see how his IQ is though and his playmaking ability, on or off the ball. I would like him because he would be an upgrade, but may be a downgrade in depth; it would depend on who we give up. He makes 20 mill. Just throwing that out there.


Randle wasn’t a good shooter either but now can bust it from anywhere.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:06 pm    Post subject:

logical24 wrote:
Would you guys trade THT/Nunn/Filler for Grant?

A closing lineup of:
RW
Monk
Grant
LeBron
AD

Scary times!


Nunn no. Slide Wayne, DJ inlace of him. We need a backup PG other than Rondo. So THT, Wayne, DJ for Grant.. sure. Although I think THT will surpass Grant within a few seasons, our window is only a few seasons.

AD, Dwight
Grant, Melo, Ariza
LeBron, Baze
Reaves, Monk
Westbrook, Nunn, Rondo

Lose some depth but I'm okay with it. It feel like we have too many guys who can and should play but the minutes are not there. This would clean up the rotations a lot. Monk, Nunn, and Melo would be a nice bench trio.

Would Detroit do this? As is, I don't think so. Nunn might make the difference.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:26 pm    Post subject:

Losing THT will hurt us especially long term, but for a team that is going all in for the next 2 years the trade is absolutely a no brainer, THT would get a chance to flourish in a rebuilding situation while they also get a nice scorer in Nunn to keep them competitive.
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 4:53 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


Grant is the trade idea of the week among Internet bloggers.

Seems like it started with bloggers conjuring trade ideas for Ben Simmons, and then for the hell of it bloggers expanded that to trade ideas for sending Ben Simmons to half a dozen other teams, including us.

Whether the Pistons actually have any interest in trading Grant, to us or anyone else, is anyone's guess.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:26 pm    Post subject:

Outspoken wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
We might still have a chance to get Buddy Hield if the Kings decide to have a fire sale.


What's the fascination with Buddy hield?


Exactly Hield isn't going to change a thing. Why not look for a defensive wing that can rebound and hit timely shots.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:27 pm    Post subject:

Jerami Grant will not make this team a championship team. He doesn't change the fundamental problem which is the Russ/Lebron combination. Westbrook makes it so easy for other teams to stop us. Grant might marginally improve us, but we'd be flushing a decent prospect (and pick?) down the toilet just to lose in the 1st round instead of the play-in.

There's really no player we could add (in the realm of possibility with our assets) that would improve this team's fortunes. The ceiling on this team is locked in at first round exit.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:35 pm    Post subject:

I am genuinely unsure how to fix this team. We’re that bad both ways
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:38 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:00 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.

That 2027 unprotected 1st might hurt.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:47 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.


Grant is my #1 target.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:04 pm    Post subject:

AFireInside619 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.


Grant is my #1 target.


Yes please, THT has looked lost the last few games, get him if you have the chance.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:14 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
AFireInside619 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.


Grant is my #1 target.


Yes please, THT has looked lost the last few games, get him if you have the chance.


and what does that do?

lakers need to do:

Westbrook/THT / 2 2nd for Ben Simmons/Curry/D Green
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:20 pm    Post subject:

LGFan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
AFireInside619 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.


Grant is my #1 target.


Yes please, THT has looked lost the last few games, get him if you have the chance.


and what does that do?

lakers need to do:

Westbrook/THT / 2 2nd for Ben Simmons/Curry/D Green


I heard today that it’s probably unlikely that the Lakers trade Westbrook unless it’s for John Wall or Kevin Love.
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lakersfever714
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:24 pm    Post subject:

It's bad to sell low. I don't like to trade when players are doing bad.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:31 pm    Post subject:

Inspector Gadget wrote:
LGFan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
AFireInside619 wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Inspector Gadget wrote:
Emplay thinks we might go after Jerami Grant.. that performance by Grant could end up being a showcase game for him, I would be so thrilled if we finally got a real 3-D wing on this team.


THT and Reaves and picks? Pistons are rebuilding.


Grant is my #1 target.


Yes please, THT has looked lost the last few games, get him if you have the chance.


and what does that do?

lakers need to do:

Westbrook/THT / 2 2nd for Ben Simmons/Curry/D Green


I heard today that it’s probably unlikely that the Lakers trade Westbrook unless it’s for John Wall or Kevin Love.


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