**OFFICIAL** 2018 Fantasy Foootball Thread
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:46 am    Post subject: **OFFICIAL** 2018 Fantasy Foootball Thread

It's that time of year again! Wanted to star a thread to discuss fantasy specific topics. Post here if you want help with any of the following:

- Sleeper discussion
- Draft assistance or analysis
- Trade help
- Waiver wire pickups
- Player projections
- Bad beat therapy

Good luck to all of the managers in all of your leagues! Let's do this...
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:04 am    Post subject:

if anyone is doing an auction draft and is looking for a filler (12 team), give me a shout.

all i know is i'm staying away from Guice and Hunter Henry this year.

I know nothing else besides that
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:10 pm    Post subject:

Alright — first real live draft in the books! Rate my draft... outside of a few picks where I got sniped, I am pretty happy overall.

12 teams, 4th pick, standard scoring

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: David Johnson
RB2: Joe Mixon
WR1: Mike Evans
WR2: Chris Hogan
TE: Trey Burton
W/R/T: Lamar Miller
K: Jake Elliott
DST: New Orleans Saints

BN: Sony Michel
BN: Jamison Crowder
BN: Kenny Stills
BN: Giovani Bernard
BN: Marcus Mariota
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:09 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Alright — first real live draft in the books! Rate my draft... outside of a few picks where I got sniped, I am pretty happy overall.

12 teams, 4th pick, standard scoring

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: David Johnson
RB2: Joe Mixon
WR1: Mike Evans
WR2: Chris Hogan
TE: Trey Burton
W/R/T: Lamar Miller
K: Jake Elliott
DST: New Orleans Saints

BN: Sony Michel
BN: Jamison Crowder
BN: Kenny Stills
BN: Giovani Bernard
BN: Marcus Mariota


only thing i would have changed is not taking wilson, and instead using that spot for another RB/WR.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:46 am    Post subject:

HOF Rookie wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Alright — first real live draft in the books! Rate my draft... outside of a few picks where I got sniped, I am pretty happy overall.

12 teams, 4th pick, standard scoring

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: David Johnson
RB2: Joe Mixon
WR1: Mike Evans
WR2: Chris Hogan
TE: Trey Burton
W/R/T: Lamar Miller
K: Jake Elliott
DST: New Orleans Saints

BN: Sony Michel
BN: Jamison Crowder
BN: Kenny Stills
BN: Giovani Bernard
BN: Marcus Mariota


only thing i would have changed is not taking wilson, and instead using that spot for another RB/WR.


Thanks! I had thought about that actually. But I got him at 6.9, late in the 6th round (69th pick) against an ADP of 41. He’s projected to have the second best QB season so I think I got a steal there.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:46 am    Post subject:

Got my draft on August 28, am in a 14 team league, got the 9th overall pick.

Hopefully someone good falls to me. Question for you guys - is Leonard Fournette gonna be good value at that spot? Realistically, him, Melvin Gordon or LSean McCoy are likely to be the best remaining RBs at that point, and I always like to go RB first unless AB or Jones falls to me.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:44 am    Post subject:

Moses wrote:
Got my draft on August 28, am in a 14 team league, got the 9th overall pick.

Hopefully someone good falls to me. Question for you guys - is Leonard Fournette gonna be good value at that spot? Realistically, him, Melvin Gordon or LSean McCoy are likely to be the best remaining RBs at that point, and I always like to go RB first unless AB or Jones falls to me.


Do not take Shady in the first round. The offense is bad, he's got potential legal trouble on the horizon, and he just hit 30 years old (or is about to)
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:10 am    Post subject:

Moses wrote:
Got my draft on August 28, am in a 14 team league, got the 9th overall pick.

Hopefully someone good falls to me. Question for you guys - is Leonard Fournette gonna be good value at that spot? Realistically, him, Melvin Gordon or LSean McCoy are likely to be the best remaining RBs at that point, and I always like to go RB first unless AB or Jones falls to me.


Fournette and Gordon should both be available there as the first 8 picks tend to be:

Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, AB, Saquon, Kamara, Hopkins.

At worst, one of them will almost assuredly be available and if not, you get great value taking one of those first 8 picks although I think Kamara poses a risk as a 1st round RB this year.

Agree with poster above. You want no part of Shady prior to the third round IMO. He’s more of an RB2.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:37 pm    Post subject:

Random thoughts:

--Love Trey Burton. Potential Kelce-like breakout for him in similar role. (I'm talking early-career Kelce.)

--Russell Wilson somehow got through the entire season last year behind a sieve of an offensive line. That line is only slightly better, and although I think their defense will be much worse (which is good for a QB in fantasy, as you want your QB to have to chase games and put up points), Wilson's TD % was so high last season that he's almost certainly going to regress there, and likely by quite a bit. Also consider that he has a ragtag group of pass catchers other than Baldwin. That 6th round value ringfinger got isn't bad, but I would prefer a few QB's to him this season when considering where I think they will finish in fantasy points and relative to draft position or auction cost.

--Wouldn't touch McCoy this season.

--I like Barkley a lot and think he will pay off. They took him 2nd overall against a lot of criticism in the growing analytical football community, they have an aging Eli, and they clearly are still trying to win. He is not going to get babied into this offense. They will feed him, and they will want him to succeed. Also, the recent history of RB's picked in the top 10 are that they generally have good rookie seasons.

--I like Davante Adams' chances this season, and think he's firmly a WR1. Also like Randall Cobb, because he will get volume, just like he did early last season before Rodgers went down. Oh, and I like Geronimo Allison as a late-round flier at WR. If anything happened to Adams or Cobb, I think Allison would produce as a weekly WR2/3 in fantasy.

--I've been wrong on him before, but I'm buying Amari Cooper this season. The Raiders defense is again terrible, they will have to throw a ton (even if they don't want to), and Gruden's offenses typically feature a clear-cut lead WR. I don't believe Jordy Nelson has much left (though maybe he gets emphasized more in the red zone due to size), so I think Cooper could have a big year with Crabtree now a Raven.

--I'm only taking Deshaun Watson if he falls to me, and that's not likely to happen. As dynamic as he was last season, I have to think about the following factors. One, he is coming off a torn ACL, which could limit his mobility. Two, his huge success last season was still on a small sample size. And three, his spiked TD rate is absolutely going to regress. He's still a clear QB1, but with where you have to take him, basically everything has to go right for him to be worth it.

--Even though I have questions about Watson's value, I have no such concerns with DeAndre Hopkins. He still produced with a ragtag group of QB's other than Watson, and this is unlike WR's like Jordy Nelson and T.Y. Hilton last season. The sky's the limit for him with Watson in there, and I have him as the clear #2 overall WR behind Antonio Brown.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:40 pm    Post subject:

More thoughts, on guys I didn't talk about in the previous post:

QB's I like
Aaron Rodgers (40 TD's over last 16 games played; bankable excellence.)
Tom Brady (Bankable excellence, and I noticed zero regression at end of last season, unlike with Peyton Manning in his penultimate season.)
Drew Brees (Positive TD regression likely; Saints had a fluky crazy-high rush TD % last season)
Jimmy Garroppolo (Positive TD regression likely and think he's legit)
Alex Smith (He lacks a ceiling, but this offense yields passing yards, and they'll have to throw more without Guice)
Pat Mahomes (Yes, the schedule looks tough, but Reid's system is fantasy-friendly, and I believe in the talent and weapons around him; KC's D is also terrible, another bonus)
Marcus Mariota (Did you see what happened to Jared Goff with actual NFL-level offensive coaching? Mariota is more talented than Goff.)
Tyrod Taylor (Hear me out. He has more offensive talent around him in CLE than he had in BUF, and a worse D. For as long as he starts, will be a nice QB2 at worst.)

RB's I like
Todd Gurley (Should be #1 overall pick, as he's not coming off another training camp holdout like Bell.)
Ezekiel Elliott (Similar to Tom Brady in the year after his suspension, Elliott will be on a F*@k You NFL tour this season. Also will be fresh.)
David Johnson (In case anyone forgot, this dude is a beast, and even on a bad team, he will eat.)
Devonta Freeman (We pretty much know what we're getting here, we know the roles in the ATL backfield, and he's shown to be a bankable low-end RB1)
Christian McCaffrey (I was skeptical, but CAR clearly looks committed to featuring him, even after signing C.J. Anderson)
Royce Freeman (Booker is terrible when he gets a lot of work, Elway talked up Freeman recently, and I expect him to get at least 2/3 of the carries and the GL work. Upside RB2 pick.)
Alex Collins (Produced like a low-end RB1 in standard once he became starter, is the clear starter now, and the O-line and offense overall should be better this season. Solid RB2 for me.)
Derrick Henry (Feel like he's undervalued. Yes, Lewis will get work, but he's been oft-injured, and Henry will get all GL work. Great bet for 10+ TD's.)
Leonard Fournette (Looks lighter and more explosive this season, and will walk into double-digit TD's if healthy)
Tarik Cohen (I like him as a PPR-specific play, but Matt Nagy is going to use him all over the formation and he may catch 80 balls this season)

WR's I like
Antonio Brown (Duh)
Julio Jones (He really burned me last year, but after a 3 TD season, there almost has to be positive TD regression coming this year)
Larry Fitzgerald (Slot WR maestro specializes in underneath routes over the middle, and guess where Sam Bradford likes to throw the ball?)
Marquise Goodwin (I'm all-in here. He's Jimmy G's favorite target and I really like the SF offense this season. A likely PPR WR2 at WR3 cost, and I'm not worried about Garcon being the lead target.)
Doug Baldwin (Watch health reports closely before Week 1, but if he's good to go, I mean, look at his target competition. No more Jimmy Graham to dominate end zone looks, either. He's in a great spot, if healthy.)
Kenny Golladay (One of my favorite late-round WR fliers)
Devin Funchess (Should be Newton's #1 outside WR, and those have good histories in Norv Turner offenses)
Tyreek Hill (Mahomes is a good match for his skills, and I absolutely do not trust Sammy Watkins. More shootouts are very possible for KC this year.)
Jarvis Landry (Should be clear target monster for Tyrod, and is a bankable PPR asset at worst.)
Chris Hogan (If healthy, I liked him as a WR2 even before Edelman's suspension. Could be a WR1 for first 4 games, especially if teams try to take Gronk away in red zone.)
Kelvin Benjamin (Buffalo is going to be terrible this year, but he's going to be a clear target hog for that team. Bankable PPR WR2/3 at worst, and his size will lead to red zone looks as well.)
Kenny Stills (I don't trust Parker or Amendola to stay healthy, and Stills has flashed with the Dolphins before and is still young)
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:29 am    Post subject:

^^ Appreciate your insight Stu

Also that was a nice draft ringfinger. I'll be having mine this saturday and another one the weekend after. Good luck this season everyone!
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:24 pm    Post subject:

Nice summary ChickenStu. Question for you, and others. I have a big money league draft coming up ($250) and I have the 9th pick, standard scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex.

I might be reaching here, but i think I might go Melvin, Mixon, Royce, Hogan with first 4 rounds. Thoughts on that?

I just dont want McCaffrey, Devonta, Howard, Dalvin, etc and I think there is a ton of receiver depth later in drafts.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:35 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Nice summary ChickenStu. Question for you, and others. I have a big money league draft coming up ($250) and I have the 9th pick, standard scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex.

I might be reaching here, but i think I might go Melvin, Mixon, Royce, Hogan with first 4 rounds. Thoughts on that?

I just dont want McCaffrey, Devonta, Howard, Dalvin, etc and I think there is a ton of receiver depth later in drafts.


Yeah I would almost certainly go RB with my first pick, unless an elite WR is still there at #9, and if you think that the RB's left at 9 are all in the same tier of guys you can still get with your 2nd round pick. But you can certainly make the case that you should just take 2 RB's at the top regardless.

Oh, and Panthers LT Matt Kalil is seeing Dr. James Andrews tomorrow. If something is wrong with him, man, their offensive line might be a disaster, and it was already shaping up to be pretty iffy. I said I liked McCaffrey this year, but their offensive line concerns are more than enough to have me shy away from him in standard leagues. He'll still do fine in PPR, but yeah, that offensive line is a major concern.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Nice summary ChickenStu. Question for you, and others. I have a big money league draft coming up ($250) and I have the 9th pick, standard scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex.

I might be reaching here, but i think I might go Melvin, Mixon, Royce, Hogan with first 4 rounds. Thoughts on that?

I just dont want McCaffrey, Devonta, Howard, Dalvin, etc and I think there is a ton of receiver depth later in drafts.
Melvin should have a big year and catch more balls with Hunter Henry out and I believe Mixon is going to be a star.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:53 pm    Post subject:

Don't wanna divulge too much info yet... As our LG draft is coming up on 9/1 and I dont wanna give away my picks just yet. But in my big $$ league.. I picked 10th in a 10 team league and got Hunt and Gordon back to back. I feel the WR depth is pretty solid this year... So I went with 2 RBs. Was able to get 2 decent WRs in rounds 3 and 4 and feel pretty confident in my squad. We shall see.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:31 pm    Post subject:

PLATNUM wrote:
Don't wanna divulge too much info yet... As our LG draft is coming up on 9/1 and I dont wanna give away my picks just yet. But in my big $$ league.. I picked 10th in a 10 team league and got Hunt and Gordon back to back. I feel the WR depth is pretty solid this year... So I went with 2 RBs. Was able to get 2 decent WRs in rounds 3 and 4 and feel pretty confident in my squad. We shall see.


That’s exactly why I was thinking of reaching for 3 RBs because once the 5th round hits, there are very few RBs with upside. Meanwhile, lots of receivers available in the 5th-9th rounds so thats where I plan to get them.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:04 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
PLATNUM wrote:
Don't wanna divulge too much info yet... As our LG draft is coming up on 9/1 and I dont wanna give away my picks just yet. But in my big $$ league.. I picked 10th in a 10 team league and got Hunt and Gordon back to back. I feel the WR depth is pretty solid this year... So I went with 2 RBs. Was able to get 2 decent WRs in rounds 3 and 4 and feel pretty confident in my squad. We shall see.


That’s exactly why I was thinking of reaching for 3 RBs because once the 5th round hits, there are very few RBs with upside. Meanwhile, lots of receivers available in the 5th-9th rounds so thats where I plan to get them.


Yup.
There were a handful of teams' number 1 receiving options still on the board in rounds 5 and beyond.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:05 pm    Post subject:

LakersChamps04 wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Nice summary ChickenStu. Question for you, and others. I have a big money league draft coming up ($250) and I have the 9th pick, standard scoring, qb/rb/rb/wr/wr/te/flex/flex.

I might be reaching here, but i think I might go Melvin, Mixon, Royce, Hogan with first 4 rounds. Thoughts on that?

I just dont want McCaffrey, Devonta, Howard, Dalvin, etc and I think there is a ton of receiver depth later in drafts.
Melvin should have a big year and catch more balls with Hunter Henry out and I believe Mixon is going to be a star.


Yeah, Gordon is fine, but he's completely depending on volume. But we're in the business of projecting, and no one really projects to take away much of his bellcow role. So he and his 3.9 YPC will still stay on the field, get the ball often inside the 10 yard line, and catch more passes, as you noted.

As for Mixon, I thought he was going to be very good last season, and now I'm just not so sure. I think there are some concerns there. For one, the team is probably going to be bad again (which can affect many RB's in fantasy), and two, I am not sure that Giovani Bernard is just going away, particularly on passing downs. If they are behind and chasing the score in second halves, how much does Mixon really eat? If he's awesome he'll get his, but are we sure that he's awesome? I suppose it's true that the offensive line can't be any worse than it was last season, but I probably won't be drafting him in any leagues.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:10 pm    Post subject:

Mixon was just so underwhelming, not sure I would risk a pick on him without a season worth of proving something.

Some of my sleepers/underrated dart throws for this year:

Josh Gordon
Corey Davis
Tyrod Taylor
Kerryon Johnson
Trey Burton (tho hes creeping)
Calvin Ridley (deep sleeper)
Peyton Barber (Jones looks like he needs a year or two)
Diggs over Thielen
Chris Godwin
Mike Williams
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:13 pm    Post subject:

I also think Corey Clement will steal Ajayi job by a few weeks in.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:02 pm    Post subject:

i wouldn't touch mixon till the 3rd round. as someone else mentioned, bernard is going to get the passing downs, and there will be alot of them with this team.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:06 pm    Post subject:

Lonzo'sBalls wrote:
I also think Corey Clement will steal Ajayi job by a few weeks in.


Same. Def going to try to roster him as much as possible. Plus, Ajayi already has a “lower body” injury.

Other late guys I like — Jordan Wilkins, Mike Williams, and Sterling Shephard.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:10 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Lonzo'sBalls wrote:
I also think Corey Clement will steal Ajayi job by a few weeks in.


Same. Def going to try to roster him as much as possible. Plus, Ajayi already has a “lower body” injury.

Other late guys I like — Jordan Wilkins, Mike Williams, and Sterling Shephard.


problem with wilkins is that they have 2 other young guys as RB there. who knows what things look like when it plays out. if you're confident in your team and want to keep a roster spot for him, then might be worth it. but he could also be a drop candidate when bye weeks roll around
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:15 pm    Post subject:

HOF Rookie wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Lonzo'sBalls wrote:
I also think Corey Clement will steal Ajayi job by a few weeks in.


Same. Def going to try to roster him as much as possible. Plus, Ajayi already has a “lower body” injury.

Other late guys I like — Jordan Wilkins, Mike Williams, and Sterling Shephard.


problem with wilkins is that they have 2 other young guys as RB there. who knows what things look like when it plays out. if you're confident in your team and want to keep a roster spot for him, then might be worth it. but he could also be a drop candidate when bye weeks roll around


I think there’s a chance Wilkins starts week 1. Mack to me doesnt seem built for an every down role, and Hines is more of a gadgety Tarik Cohen type who has had fumbling issues in the preseason.

I’d bet on Wilkins being the most fantasy relevant back in Indy this season.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 22, 2018 6:16 pm    Post subject:

Also, why Shephard?

Pat Shurmur, thats why =)

He’s also why I wont be buying any shares of Adam Thielen this year.
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