Are teams finally learning that these big contracts aren't worth it and this is when the market value starts to change?
Or were the media and Boras simply overvaluing Harper and Machado based on anomalies like Pujols and Cano?
I think teams are realizing that unless the guy is Mike Trout he's not worth more than like $25M a year or if you give them more than that they are not getting more than 5 years.
Are teams finally learning that these big contracts aren't worth it and this is when the market value starts to change?
Or were the media and Boras simply overvaluing Harper and Machado based on anomalies like Pujols and Cano?
I think teams are realizing that unless the guy is Mike Trout he's not worth more than like $25M a year or if you give them more than that they are not getting more than 5 years.
It started last yr. People said that teams were just saving money for this year. That's not been the case.
Something changed. Feels like collusion.
But then, we did have:
a) Yankees taking on Stanton's massive contract
b) Nationals offering $300M to Harper before he hit (bleep). So, there's still some evidence of the money still being available.
That's the feeling I'm getting too, collusion to get/keep the power with the team since they're seeing what's happening in other leagues.
There's is the one in a million chance that the Nats offered Harper that contract fully knowing he wanted to test the market. Once it become public other teams shied away from him based on the price he was now looking for. And in the end they can keep him for a lot cheaper since there are no other suitors. I doubt this is the case but wow, what a great gamble if it is and works out.
I think as teams are diving deeper into sabermetrics, they''re starting to value players much more appropriately. Machado and Harper are both all-star calibers but the kind of 25-40M annual salary should be reserved for the ace of aces and the perennial mvp caliber player. Neither one remotely describes Machado and Harper. _________________ KOBE
That's the feeling I'm getting too, collusion to get/keep the power with the team since they're seeing what's happening in other leagues.
There's is the one in a million chance that the Nats offered Harper that contract fully knowing he wanted to test the market. Once it become public other teams shied away from him based on the price he was now looking for. And in the end they can keep him for a lot cheaper since there are no other suitors. I doubt this is the case but wow, what a great gamble if it is and works out.
This wouldn't make sense to me since it's been long rumored that Bryce Harper is going to get a ridiculous contract. Teams didn't need the Nationals to leak that info for them to realize that. Everyone thought the starting point was going to be $300M and nothing less.
I think as teams are diving deeper into sabermetrics, they''re starting to value players much more appropriately. Machado and Harper are both all-star calibers but the kind of 25-40M annual salary should be reserved for the ace of aces and the perennial mvp caliber player. Neither one remotely describes Machado and Harper.
They also need collusion as well. If Boston decided to go crazy and sign Bryce Harper or Machado, the Yankees fans would be pissed.
It was only 3 years ago that Arizona went crazy and signed Greinke to that ridiculous contract. Now they're pulling back and they've traded Goldschmidt.
I think it's more than Sabermetrics. I don't think it just finally sunk in that signing Greinke was a bad deal.
Seems like the teams are conscious not to try and bid against each other.
Prices are so cheap right now someone should be snatching up Machado and Harper.
There's no collusion here. Machado is an above league average 3rd baseman and a slightly above average SS who doesn't want to play 3rd. The Dodgers not even giving him an offer after giving up some elite prospects for a rental was not lost on the rest of the teams. MLB front offices watched along with everyone else at his lackluster play in the post season. If you are paying someone 300 million for 10 years you damned well want someone that can get motivated enough not turn a double off the wall into a single in the World Series.
Harper is much the same he's a corner outfielder that is still living off his breakout season as a rookie. He strikes me as a phenom that never had to work particularly hard at baseball. As he ages his lack of motivation to put in the work will be more telling. These guys are worth the JD Martinez type contract. And Martinez is a better hitter than both. Though he sucks in the field. These narratives about the mega contracts are built thru their agent (no surprise it's Boras in both cases).
As someone mentioned above all the teams in the MLB are now playing moneyball not just the A's and the Rays anymore.
Lineup:
1. A.J. Pollock, CF
2. Corey Seager, SS
3. Justin Turner, 3B
4. Cody Bellinger, RF
5. Max Muncy, 1B
6. Chris Taylor, 2B
7. Joc Pederson, LF
8. Austin Barnes, C
Rotation and closer:
1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2. Walker Buehler, RHP
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
4. Rich Hill, LHP
5. Kenta Maeda, RHP
Closer: Kenley Jansen, RHP _________________ “Love is the force that ignites the spirit and binds teams together.” - Phil Jackson
Last edited by AuraStar on Fri Feb 15, 2019 1:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
I'd say that Verdugo or Hernandez has a shot to beat out Pederson, and Barnes/Martin split the time at catcher. _________________ LAKERS 2019-2020: NBA World Champions!
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:34 pm Post subject:
when the Reds - Dodgers trade happened this winter, I told ChickenStu I had reservations about acquiring Puig. Was never really a fan, and did not think his "huge personality" would always go over well in Cincinnati. Wow, I was wrong by a mile....that guy has taken the city and fanbase by storm. He visited the city during the Polar vortex, and visited with youth groups, spent time with the mayor, etc.
I would not be surprised if he ranked as the #2 favorite player on the roster behind Reds lifer Joey Votto....even ahead of Cincy born and raised Scooter Gennett. The Cincinnati media has fell in love with him, and his teammates can't stop talking him up this week. Apparently he was the first player to arrive in Goodyear, Arizona this year....a few days before the P's and C's.
Just thought I would drop in with the long time Dodger update.
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31919 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:42 pm Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
when the Reds - Dodgers trade happened this winter, I told ChickenStu I had reservations about acquiring Puig. Was never really a fan, and did not think his "huge personality" would always go over well in Cincinnati. Wow, I was wrong by a mile....that guy has taken the city and fanbase by storm. He visited the city during the Polar vortex, and visited with youth groups, spent time with the mayor, etc.
I would not be surprised if he ranked as the #2 favorite player on the roster behind Reds lifer Joey Votto....even ahead of Cincy born and raised Scooter Gennett. The Cincinnati media has fell in love with him, and his teammates can't stop talking him up this week. Apparently he was the first player to arrive in Goodyear, Arizona this year....a few days before the P's and C's.
Just thought I would drop in with the long time Dodger update.
He's going to have a big year hitting in that park. And he'll be super motivated to get a big contract next winter, though we've seen that pressure go the other way, too.
The era of the 10 year contract is pretty much over....I don't think a strike will change that. Too many teams got burned by them that the front offices are unwilling to sacrifice flexibility of their franchise to build their teams.
Joined: 16 Jun 2005 Posts: 40345 Location: Dirty South
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:56 pm Post subject:
lakersken80 wrote:
The era of the 10 year contract is pretty much over....I don't think a strike will change that. Too many teams got burned by them that the front offices are unwilling to sacrifice flexibility of their franchise to build their teams.
do you think in the end, someone breaks and gives Harper or Machado the huge 10 year deal?
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31919 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:05 pm Post subject:
adkindo wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
The era of the 10 year contract is pretty much over....I don't think a strike will change that. Too many teams got burned by them that the front offices are unwilling to sacrifice flexibility of their franchise to build their teams.
do you think in the end, someone breaks and gives Harper or Machado the huge 10 year deal?
It just feels like a team like the Padres would have to overpay (as in, definitively have the best offer on the table) to land a player like that, so I'm guessing that if Machado signs there, it might be 10 years. I still think Harper ends up with the Phillies, and I still feel like he will get more money per year, though maybe he doesn't get 10 years from the Phillies. Still, I'm guessing both guys will have opt-outs in their deals.
Joined: 17 Jun 2003 Posts: 6287 Location: Central Coast
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:15 pm Post subject:
My guess is some teams are looking ahead to Mike Trout, the only player really worth $30 million a year or a ten year contract. They don't want to set the bar to high with Harper (who is good but not great long term) or Machado (who is great, but has some negatives and is only great short term).
I can see the Padres offering Harper a long term deal, just because they have nothing else besides the nice weather, pitchers park, and a nice stadium. Harper is the franchise, but by himself, probably doesn't make the playoffs with that team.
Philly, I think is the interesting option, because of Trout - Philly essentially needs to show they are the better team going forward, especially over the Angels - Philly NEEDS to win 90 games this year I think to have a shot at convincing Trout to leave. But I think Philly is better served getting Machado maybe on a five year $150 million deal. _________________ LAKERS 2019-2020: NBA World Champions!
Andrew Friedman philosophy is great for the team. Baseball unlike basketball and football cannot be as effected by one superstar player. Maybe a pitcher but what about the other 130 games
Joined: 26 Apr 2004 Posts: 17249 Location: In a no-ship
Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:44 pm Post subject:
waterman40 wrote:
My guess is some teams are looking ahead to Mike Trout, the only player really worth $30 million a year or a ten year contract. They don't want to set the bar to high with Harper (who is good but not great long term) or Machado (who is great, but has some negatives and is only great short term).
I can see the Padres offering Harper a long term deal, just because they have nothing else besides the nice weather, pitchers park, and a nice stadium. Harper is the franchise, but by himself, probably doesn't make the playoffs with that team.
Philly, I think is the interesting option, because of Trout - Philly essentially needs to show they are the better team going forward, especially over the Angels - Philly NEEDS to win 90 games this year I think to have a shot at convincing Trout to leave. But I think Philly is better served getting Machado maybe on a five year $150 million deal.
Per Source: Angels and Mike Trout are discussing an 8yr deal between 350-375, 40 Million ++ AAV. Full no trade clause would be in the deal.
*Sorry no Harper or Machado updates, but I did hear the Braves offered Machado 3yrs 90 million. Off the table now.
Andrew Friedman philosophy is great for the team. Baseball unlike basketball and football cannot be as effected by one superstar player. Maybe a pitcher but what about the other 130 games
I don’t know if it’s sustainable.
Friedman inherited alot of prospects and Kershaw/Jansen.
Pederson
Seager
Bellinger
Urias
Puig
These players are all cost controlled right now. It’ll be interesting what happens when they all need to be paid.
Friedman’s going to have to replenish the farm so he can bring up some more cheap talent
Why were teams so desperate to get him? He really didn't look that good in the World Series, playoffs, or even regular season... Turner was better. Where does Machado rank among MLB players? _________________ Damian Lillard shatters Dwight Coward's championship dreams:
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