From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?
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ribeye
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:08 am    Post subject: Re: From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
activeverb wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
I'm not being hyperbolic but DRTG just might be the worse stat in basketball.


I'd say every single defensive stat is highly flawed. Defensive rating is highly skewed to team performance, and favors frontcourt players over guards.

I just threw it out for the hell of it. Some people will tell you that no defensive stat has any worth. That creates the problem that defense becomes an "in the eye of the beholder" thing.


There is no perfect defensive stat, but JB is right. Individual DRtg may be the worst common stat in basketball. B-R really should take that stat off its website.


No argument with that one, but how about DRPM? Now, I'm still having troubles watching anything but small segments of this team's version of the King and his Court, and I watch a very small number of other team's games, so I must rely on stats to help make a determination. According to DRPM for PG's, I would say it would be hard to make such a case for Zo.

Code:
1.58   Marcus Smart
1.53   Ben Simmons
1.17   Cory Joseph
1.06   Chris Paul
1.03   Kyrie Irving
0.89   Eric Bledsoe
0.61   Kyle Lowry
0.58   Darren Collison
0.37   Shaquille Harrison
0.33   Ricky Rubio
0.32   Lonzo Ball

Last year however, he was third in DRPM fo PG's.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:48 pm    Post subject:

^^^^

Yes, and all of those guys are good defensive PGs, with the possible exception of Irving (who may have improved his defense, but I can't speak to that because I don't follow the Celtics).

As I wrote in another thread, my theory is that Ball's DRPM was inflated last season because (1) he was a rookie PG, and other teams regularly challenge rookie PGs, (2) he surprised them by being a good defender, which meant that he had a lot of impact, but (3) this year, teams have scouted him and are not challenging him.

Anyway, the all-defense team often does not conform to metrics. There is a good reason for this: Many of the best defenders are also offensive stars. By necessity, they put a lot of their energy into scoring. This was true for Kobe -- the metrics show that he was a mediocre defender, but everyone knew that he could play elite defense when he wanted to. The voters sometimes will pick a defensive specialist, but more often they seem to reward bona fide two way players.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:54 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

Yes, and all of those guys are good defensive PGs, with the possible exception of Irving (who may have improved his defense, but I can't speak to that because I don't follow the Celtics).

As I wrote in another thread, my theory is that Ball's DRPM was inflated last season because (1) he was a rookie PG, and other teams regularly challenge rookie PGs, (2) he surprised them by being a good defender, which meant that he had a lot of impact, but (3) this year, teams have scouted him and are not challenging him.

Anyway, the all-defense team often does not conform to metrics. There is a good reason for this: Many of the best defenders are also offensive stars. By necessity, they put a lot of their energy into scoring. This was true for Kobe -- the metrics show that he was a mediocre defender, but everyone knew that he could play elite defense when he wanted to. The voters sometimes will pick a defensive specialist, but more often they seem to reward bona fide two way players.


I haven't checked the advanced stats, but Dejounte Murray's offense wasn't great but he got 2nd team all NBA defense.
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epak
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:31 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

Yes, and all of those guys are good defensive PGs, with the possible exception of Irving (who may have improved his defense, but I can't speak to that because I don't follow the Celtics).

As I wrote in another thread, my theory is that Ball's DRPM was inflated last season because (1) he was a rookie PG, and other teams regularly challenge rookie PGs, (2) he surprised them by being a good defender, which meant that he had a lot of impact, but (3) this year, teams have scouted him and are not challenging him.

Anyway, the all-defense team often does not conform to metrics. There is a good reason for this: Many of the best defenders are also offensive stars. By necessity, they put a lot of their energy into scoring. This was true for Kobe -- the metrics show that he was a mediocre defender, but everyone knew that he could play elite defense when he wanted to. The voters sometimes will pick a defensive specialist, but more often they seem to reward bona fide two way players.


I haven't checked the advanced stats, but Dejounte Murray's offense wasn't great but he got 2nd team all NBA defense.


He said "sometimes will pick a def specialist."
Which is true.

But every year there's at least one of these guys who arent big time scorers that gets selected:

Tony Allen
Andrew Bogut
Draymond Green
DeAndre Jordan
Andre Roberson
Danny Green
Patrick Beverly
Rudy Gobert
Robert Covington
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:04 pm    Post subject: Re: From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?

ribeye wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
activeverb wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
I'm not being hyperbolic but DRTG just might be the worse stat in basketball.


I'd say every single defensive stat is highly flawed. Defensive rating is highly skewed to team performance, and favors frontcourt players over guards.

I just threw it out for the hell of it. Some people will tell you that no defensive stat has any worth. That creates the problem that defense becomes an "in the eye of the beholder" thing.


There is no perfect defensive stat, but JB is right. Individual DRtg may be the worst common stat in basketball. B-R really should take that stat off its website.


No argument with that one, but how about DRPM? Now, I'm still having troubles watching anything but small segments of this team's version of the King and his Court, and I watch a very small number of other team's games, so I must rely on stats to help make a determination. According to DRPM for PG's, I would say it would be hard to make such a case for Zo.

Code:
1.58   Marcus Smart
1.53   Ben Simmons
1.17   Cory Joseph
1.06   Chris Paul
1.03   Kyrie Irving
0.89   Eric Bledsoe
0.61   Kyle Lowry
0.58   Darren Collison
0.37   Shaquille Harrison
0.33   Ricky Rubio
0.32   Lonzo Ball

Last year however, he was third in DRPM fo PG's.

He's climbed after a slow start.
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epak
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:16 pm    Post subject: Re: From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
ribeye wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
activeverb wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
I'm not being hyperbolic but DRTG just might be the worse stat in basketball.


I'd say every single defensive stat is highly flawed. Defensive rating is highly skewed to team performance, and favors frontcourt players over guards.

I just threw it out for the hell of it. Some people will tell you that no defensive stat has any worth. That creates the problem that defense becomes an "in the eye of the beholder" thing.


There is no perfect defensive stat, but JB is right. Individual DRtg may be the worst common stat in basketball. B-R really should take that stat off its website.


No argument with that one, but how about DRPM? Now, I'm still having troubles watching anything but small segments of this team's version of the King and his Court, and I watch a very small number of other team's games, so I must rely on stats to help make a determination. According to DRPM for PG's, I would say it would be hard to make such a case for Zo.

Code:
1.58   Marcus Smart
1.53   Ben Simmons
1.17   Cory Joseph
1.06   Chris Paul
1.03   Kyrie Irving
0.89   Eric Bledsoe
0.61   Kyle Lowry
0.58   Darren Collison
0.37   Shaquille Harrison
0.33   Ricky Rubio
0.32   Lonzo Ball

Last year however, he was third in DRPM fo PG's.

He's climbed after a slow start.


Injuries and no summer to work on-court will do that
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:49 pm    Post subject: Re: From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?

epak wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
ribeye wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
activeverb wrote:
jonnybravo wrote:
I'm not being hyperbolic but DRTG just might be the worse stat in basketball.


I'd say every single defensive stat is highly flawed. Defensive rating is highly skewed to team performance, and favors frontcourt players over guards.

I just threw it out for the hell of it. Some people will tell you that no defensive stat has any worth. That creates the problem that defense becomes an "in the eye of the beholder" thing.


There is no perfect defensive stat, but JB is right. Individual DRtg may be the worst common stat in basketball. B-R really should take that stat off its website.


No argument with that one, but how about DRPM? Now, I'm still having troubles watching anything but small segments of this team's version of the King and his Court, and I watch a very small number of other team's games, so I must rely on stats to help make a determination. According to DRPM for PG's, I would say it would be hard to make such a case for Zo.

Code:
1.58   Marcus Smart
1.53   Ben Simmons
1.17   Cory Joseph
1.06   Chris Paul
1.03   Kyrie Irving
0.89   Eric Bledsoe
0.61   Kyle Lowry
0.58   Darren Collison
0.37   Shaquille Harrison
0.33   Ricky Rubio
0.32   Lonzo Ball

Last year however, he was third in DRPM fo PG's.

He's climbed after a slow start.


Injuries and no summer to work on-court will do that

Definitely. We'll see where he stands on the list by the ASB.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:15 pm    Post subject:

Using a somewhat meta analysis of defensive stats including DRPM and DBPM Lonzo aggregates to a top 5 PG defender.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:25 pm    Post subject:

CandyCanes wrote:
Weren't people concerned Lonzo would be a bad defender when we drafted him? How did he make such a quick turnaround?


I thought he'd be a trainreck tbh. Wrong wrong wrong was I.

I remember some interview some time back where he said defending is all about heart.
Anticipation and awareness I'd say are primary and he had those skills in droves already.
Something like that maybe...
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:02 pm    Post subject:

The Juggernaut wrote:
Using a somewhat meta analysis of defensive stats including DRPM and DBPM Lonzo aggregates to a top 5 PG defender.


I think thatโ€™s reasonable. I donโ€™t think I could name five who are clearly better. With something like defense, you can always make an argument for just about anyone other than Isaiah Thomas. But Ball is an impact defender for sure.
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ribeye
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:02 pm    Post subject: Re: From game 1 til now. is Lonzo the best Defensive PG in the NBA?

ribeye wrote:
According to DRPM for PG's, I would say it would be hard to make such a case for Zo.

Code:
1.58   Marcus Smart
1.53   Ben Simmons
1.17   Cory Joseph
1.06   Chris Paul
1.03   Kyrie Irving
0.89   Eric Bledsoe
0.61   Kyle Lowry
0.58   Darren Collison
0.37   Shaquille Harrison
0.33   Ricky Rubio
0.32   Lonzo Ball

Last year however, he was third in DRPM fo PG's.


The Juggernaut wrote:
Using a somewhat meta analysis of defensive stats including DRPM and DBPM Lonzo aggregates to a top 5 PG defender.


So, why see not what DBPM offers:

Code:
4.3   Russell Westbrook
4.0   Demetrius Jackson
2.9   Ben Simmons
2.8   Shaquille Harrison
1.6   Cory Joseph
1.5   Lonzo Ball
1.4   Evan Turner
1.3   Kyrie Irving
1.3   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
1.1   Lorenzo Brown


Code:
2.2   Marcus Smart (SG) for this BR data


I'm kinda thinking there is not enough data, or that one of these, or both, just have too little value. Though these lists can't even agree who is a PG and who is a SG, Zo is one of the few on both lists. Based on these, Ben Simmons would be the obvious choice for best PG so far this year, and maybe Marcus Smart, though he is more of a tweener guard, second.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:20 pm    Post subject:

I think we haven't seen enough action this season to slot Lonzo anywhere near the league's five (or so) best "guards who guard small guards" in defensive play. He's improved quite a bit and he's scratched his way up to mid-pack league-wide, towards top ten at best.

The cream of the league remains: CP3, Westbrook, Beverley, Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Smart, Oladipo (,Dejounte Murray, injured), who are all far more proven and accomplished, and are preferable as defenders of small players to me. Lonzo contends with several others in the next tier down.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2018 8:17 pm    Post subject:

I actually think that Lonzo is one of those players that is underrated and overrated at the same time. Weird. He is clearly underrated by many non-Lakers observers, maybe because when he misses shots he misses them by a lot. But he is also overrated by many Lakers faithful maybe because potential is factored in. He is a decent defender but he gambles way too often. I think it is hard to be the best defensive PG when you're not the best defensive PG on your own team.
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