Ranking Chances of Getting a Top Free Agent Next Summer

 
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:36 am    Post subject: Ranking Chances of Getting a Top Free Agent Next Summer

Lakers are planning to have max cap space next summer. Who would be your top 5 free agent targets and what percentage do you think Lakers have of getting them?

1a. Kawhi Leonard - 20% - Reports say he favors the Clippers if he does decide to return home to Los Angeles, especially if they are able to sign 2 max free agents.

1b. Kevin Durant - 10% - I think he will stay with GSW if Draymond is moved. Also, his toxic media comments around Lebron reduce the chances because he is sensitive to the media.

3. Khris Middleton - 50%-70% - I think Lakers have a real shot to get Middleton if they aggressively pursue him. I think he is very similar to Klay Thompson except is a better creator for others. Not much is reported on his free agency but if he wants more exposure and an All Star appearance, Lakers would be a good fit. Added bonus is that he might not even be offered the full max.

4. Klay Thompson - 35% - Depends on how far into luxury tax GSW is willing to go into and if Klay will give them a hometown discount. If not GSW, I think Lakers are second on his list.

5. Tobias Harris - 20% - Depends what the Clippers decide to do and if they offer him the max. If they waive his Bird Rights, I think Lakers chances increase drastically (70%) if they have interest in him.

Left Kyrie Irving (reportedly agreed to resign with Celtics) and Jimmy Butler (did not have Lakers on his preferred destination targets when requesting a trade) off my list as I don't see them joining the Lakers.

edit: After Kyrie apologized to Bron and recognizing the difficulties that come with being a leader, I'd give him a 10% chance to join the Lakers due to the Celtics' current struggles.

Edit: Brief End of Regular Season Update

1a. Kawhi Leonard - 10%: Clippers are the favorite to land him as they are more competitive than the Lakers and can possibly clear cap space for a 2nd all star to team up with.
1b. Kevin Durant - 5%: Reported that he is leaving GSW regardless of playoff outcome. Leading favorite to land him are the Knicks (possibly teaming up with Kyrie).
2. Kyrie Irving - 20%: Made up with Lebron but his decision will be based on Celtics current playoff run and his interest in playing closer to home in New York (possibly teaming up with KD).
3. Kemba Walker - 30%: Will have a lot of interest from other teams despite flying under the radar. His deciding/motivating factors have not been reported on.
4. Klay Thompson - 5%: Likely to resign with GSW if KD leave, which seems inevitable at this point.
5. Demarcus Cousins - 50%: Another season ending injury might lead Cousins to join whoever gives the largest deal.
6. Jimmy Butler - 30%: I hope Lakers pass on giving him a large deal as it looks like Jimmy will play for whoever gives him the largest deal.
7. Nikola Vucevic - 30%: I hope Lakers pass on giving him a large deal but Magic don't seem interest in retaining him with Mo Bamba on roster.
8. Tobias Harris - 20%: Sixers didn't trade for him to let him walk away and they have his bird rights to pay him.
9. Khris Middleton - 15%: Expressed interest in saying with Bucks and Bucks seem willing to pay.


Last edited by chekmatex4 on Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:51 pm; edited 3 times in total
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:14 am    Post subject:

I think that the Clippers go after KD or Leonard so Harris might be our best opportunity. I don’t know that paying $31-32 mil for Middleton is wise but I love his game. Lacob doesn’t see why the Warriors dominance needs to end so it is doubtful Klay goes anywhere. KD has said he is going for the money and I would guess that means GS or NY, maybe Brooklyn. Leonard who knows.
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:30 am    Post subject:

I don't really think in percentages, I'm thinking "digitally", either a "1" or a "0":

Kawhi: 0
Durant: 0
Thompson:0
Irving: 0 --- I can't figure out why people keep mentioning Kyrie Irving coming to the Lakers: this is the guy who demanded a trade to get AWAY from LeBron, so the chances of him signing here are less than zero!


Middleton (SF/SG): 1 (2019 Stats: 18ppg, 6rpg & 4apg / Salary:$13mil)
Harris (SF/PF): 1 (2019 Stats: 21ppg, 8rpg & 2apg/ Salary: $14.8mil)
Vucevic (C): 1 (2019 Stats: 20ppg & 12rpg / Salary: $12.7mil)

Not to worry, because if the Lakers can't secure a top level star, then getting TWO decent guys (in the $20mil range - each) would be a huge help, for instance:

PG: Ball: (10ppg, 5rpg & 5apg)
SG: Middleton: (18ppg, 6rpg & 4apg)
SF: Lebron: (28ppg, 8rpg, & 7apg)
PF: Kuz: (19ppg, 6rpg, & 2apg)
C: Vucevic: (20ppg & 12rpg)

Would put together a starting team that is averaging 95ppg (this season)..!
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:17 pm    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:

Middleton (SF/SG): 1 (2019 Stats: 18ppg, 6rpg & 4apg / Salary:$13mil)
Harris (SF/PF): 1 (2019 Stats: 21ppg, 8rpg & 2apg/ Salary: $14.8mil)
Vucevic (C): 1 (2019 Stats: 20ppg & 12rpg / Salary: $12.7mil)

Not to worry, because if the Lakers can't secure a top level star, then getting TWO decent guys (in the $20mil range - each)...


Two points. 1. I think Lakers will have a little less than $36m in free cap space this summer and I think Middleton/Harris will make over $20m per year. Remember, Harris turned down Clippers extension of $80 million this year. Vucevic might accept $20m annually since C are not getting paid as much in current market.

2. The current salaries you listed above are just the final year of the contract. I think it's more accurate to reflect the average annual salary of the contract instead.

Middleton (SF/SG): $14 million
Harris (SF/PF): $16 million
Vucevic (C): $13.25 million
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:44 pm    Post subject:

I now think Kemba Walker has to be the Lakers third FA target, (after Durant & Kawhi) he is a 28 yo PG, that is averaging 25ppg, 6 asp, 4 rpg, shooting: FT=82%, FG=44% 3Pt=36%

Getting him frees up Zo in any trade packages...

Oh, an I have NEVER heard his dad say a thing...
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:38 pm    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
I now think Kemba Walker has to be the Lakers third FA target, (after Durant & Kawhi) he is a 28 yo PG, that is averaging 25ppg, 6 asp, 4 rpg, shooting: FT=82%, FG=44% 3Pt=36%

Getting him frees up Zo in any trade packages...

Oh, an I have NEVER heard his dad say a thing...

not a fan of him and dont see much chemistry with Lebron. I'd take Klay over him any day of the week
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:36 pm    Post subject:

Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:50 pm    Post subject:

chekmatex4 wrote:
Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space


I want Davis at any cost, but your starting 5 is two stars and 3 Rookies..lol to that.

I think you need to hold back either Kuz or Ingram and include Hart if necessary and only one 1st round pick..

LOL, the Pelicans will essentially turn into last years Lakers:

PG: Ball
SG: Hart
SF: Kuz
PF: Randle
C: Zu
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:39 pm    Post subject:

unleasHell wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space


I want Davis at any cost, but your starting 5 is two stars and 3 Rookies..lol to that.

I think you need to hold back either Kuz or Ingram and include Hart if necessary and only one 1st round pick..

LOL, the Pelicans will essentially turn into last years Lakers:

PG: Ball
SG: Hart
SF: Kuz
PF: Randle
C: Zu
You say you want Davis at any cost then proceed to say you will hold back Kuzma or Ingram. I'd love to hold one of them back too but my offer is the "get Davis at any cost" option.

If you want to pressure Pelicans to accept the offer before the trade deadline, that's the offer you're going to have to make; otherwise it makes since for Pelicans to wait till the Summer. During the Summer, Lakers offer will still probably be the same (less Zubac since he's a RFA) since Celtics can create a bidding war.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:25 pm    Post subject:

chekmatex4 wrote:
unleasHell wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space


I want Davis at any cost, but your starting 5 is two stars and 3 Rookies..lol to that.

I think you need to hold back either Kuz or Ingram and include Hart if necessary and only one 1st round pick..

LOL, the Pelicans will essentially turn into last years Lakers:

PG: Ball
SG: Hart
SF: Kuz
PF: Randle
C: Zu
You say you want Davis at any cost then proceed to say you will hold back Kuzma or Ingram. I'd love to hold one of them back too but my offer is the "get Davis at any cost" option.

If you want to pressure Pelicans to accept the offer before the trade deadline, that's the offer you're going to have to make; otherwise it makes since for Pelicans to wait till the Summer. During the Summer, Lakers offer will still probably be the same (less Zubac since he's a RFA) since Celtics can create a bidding war.


It's possible that they actually don't want Ingram, and view our 3 best assets as Lonzo (the word is that they covet him), Kuzma, and Zubac. They may see Ingram as being one year from needing to get paid as a restricted free agent, and they may have doubts about paying him. Heck, they might prefer Hart to him, for all we know. And obviously, draft picks will be involved if we pull the deal off.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:38 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
unleasHell wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space


I want Davis at any cost, but your starting 5 is two stars and 3 Rookies..lol to that.

I think you need to hold back either Kuz or Ingram and include Hart if necessary and only one 1st round pick..

LOL, the Pelicans will essentially turn into last years Lakers:

PG: Ball
SG: Hart
SF: Kuz
PF: Randle
C: Zu
You say you want Davis at any cost then proceed to say you will hold back Kuzma or Ingram. I'd love to hold one of them back too but my offer is the "get Davis at any cost" option.

If you want to pressure Pelicans to accept the offer before the trade deadline, that's the offer you're going to have to make; otherwise it makes since for Pelicans to wait till the Summer. During the Summer, Lakers offer will still probably be the same (less Zubac since he's a RFA) since Celtics can create a bidding war.


It's possible that they actually don't want Ingram, and view our 3 best assets as Lonzo (the word is that they covet him), Kuzma, and Zubac. They may see Ingram as being one year from needing to get paid as a restricted free agent, and they may have doubts about paying him. Heck, they might prefer Hart to him, for all we know. And obviously, draft picks will be involved if we pull the deal off.
You and I aren't in the room so will never know for sure, but I'm asking for everyone to be made available, even if I don't want them, because I can just flip them for someone else. Pelicans are going to try and get as many assets as possible to keep or flip to another team.

Your argument about Ingram being a restricted free agent would also apply to Zubac so.....
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:38 pm    Post subject:

chekmatex4 wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
unleasHell wrote:
chekmatex4 wrote:
Anthony Davis requests a trade. If I'm the Lakers, I'm offering following

Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma - Tough to include them all but my rationale is; would we include them in an AD trade during Summer to compete against the Celtics. I think yes, so might as well offer them now.

Zubac - He's a RFA this summer and he has value now in a trade since he's been playing well. This is a lost asset if we wait till the Summer.

2019 and 2021 1st Round Picks and right to swap picks in 2020 - The best pick will be 2019 due to our struggles due to injury. 2021 pick should be late in the draft and Pelicans wouldn't swap due to having a worse record.

2019 Roster After Trade:

Lebron (SF/PF), Davis (PF/C), Hart (SG), Svi (SG), Wagner (PF/C), Bonga (SF), ~$25-$27m cap space


I want Davis at any cost, but your starting 5 is two stars and 3 Rookies..lol to that.

I think you need to hold back either Kuz or Ingram and include Hart if necessary and only one 1st round pick..

LOL, the Pelicans will essentially turn into last years Lakers:

PG: Ball
SG: Hart
SF: Kuz
PF: Randle
C: Zu
You say you want Davis at any cost then proceed to say you will hold back Kuzma or Ingram. I'd love to hold one of them back too but my offer is the "get Davis at any cost" option.

If you want to pressure Pelicans to accept the offer before the trade deadline, that's the offer you're going to have to make; otherwise it makes since for Pelicans to wait till the Summer. During the Summer, Lakers offer will still probably be the same (less Zubac since he's a RFA) since Celtics can create a bidding war.


It's possible that they actually don't want Ingram, and view our 3 best assets as Lonzo (the word is that they covet him), Kuzma, and Zubac. They may see Ingram as being one year from needing to get paid as a restricted free agent, and they may have doubts about paying him. Heck, they might prefer Hart to him, for all we know. And obviously, draft picks will be involved if we pull the deal off.
You and I aren't in the room so will never know for sure, but I'm asking for everyone to be made available, even if I don't want them, because I can just flip them for someone else. Pelicans are going to try and get as many assets as possible to keep or flip to another team.

Your argument about Ingram being a restricted free agent would also apply to Zubac so.....


Well, I don't think Zubac is going to command anything close to the type of salary that Ingram might, but in general I agree with what you said. You're right that they would rather have Ingram than not have him lol.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:34 pm    Post subject:

KD: 5% , just off the rumors this Summer. don't believe it really

Kyrie: 12% Will be tough to go back on his word, but the situation in Boston could turn toxic and he could leave, I think we'd be high on his list if he left

Klay: 10%

Kawhi: 35%

Middleton: 10% smaltown guys usually stay, imo.

Tobias: 20%. moving across the hall isn't as tough as moving across the country. real good shot imo, if we want him

Butler: maybe a chance if he wants to leave Phil. He's an East Coast guy though
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:41 pm    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
KD: 5% , just off the rumors this Summer. don't believe it really

Kyrie: 12% Will be tough to go back on his word, but the situation in Boston could turn toxic and he could leave, I think we'd be high on his list if he left

Klay: 10%

Kawhi: 35%

Middleton: 10% smaltown guys usually stay, imo.

Tobias: 20%. moving across the hall isn't as tough as moving across the country. real good shot imo, if we want him

Butler: maybe a chance if he wants to leave Phil. He's an East Coast guy though

Klay is 100% given if Warriors refuse to pay him Max... all depends if Durant leaves or not

second tier guys like Middleton and Tobias are pretty much locks if Lakers go all in and overpay for them

I'd bump up KD way more than 5%. Theres very few other places he can leave the Warriors to with a max contract and be immediate contenders plus big market exposure
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:36 am    Post subject:

audioaxes wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
KD: 5% , just off the rumors this Summer. don't believe it really

Kyrie: 12% Will be tough to go back on his word, but the situation in Boston could turn toxic and he could leave, I think we'd be high on his list if he left

Klay: 10%

Kawhi: 35%

Middleton: 10% smaltown guys usually stay, imo.

Tobias: 20%. moving across the hall isn't as tough as moving across the country. real good shot imo, if we want him

Butler: maybe a chance if he wants to leave Phil. He's an East Coast guy though

Klay is 100% given if Warriors refuse to pay him Max... all depends if Durant leaves or not

second tier guys like Middleton and Tobias are pretty much locks if Lakers go all in and overpay for them

I'd bump up KD way more than 5%. Theres very few other places he can leave the Warriors to with a max contract and be immediate contenders plus big market exposure


I think they choose Klay over Dray if it comes down to that. Tiny tiny chance they let him go imo
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:39 am    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
audioaxes wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
KD: 5% , just off the rumors this Summer. don't believe it really

Kyrie: 12% Will be tough to go back on his word, but the situation in Boston could turn toxic and he could leave, I think we'd be high on his list if he left

Klay: 10%

Kawhi: 35%

Middleton: 10% smaltown guys usually stay, imo.

Tobias: 20%. moving across the hall isn't as tough as moving across the country. real good shot imo, if we want him

Butler: maybe a chance if he wants to leave Phil. He's an East Coast guy though

Klay is 100% given if Warriors refuse to pay him Max... all depends if Durant leaves or not

second tier guys like Middleton and Tobias are pretty much locks if Lakers go all in and overpay for them

I'd bump up KD way more than 5%. Theres very few other places he can leave the Warriors to with a max contract and be immediate contenders plus big market exposure


I think they choose Klay over Dray if it comes down to that. Tiny tiny chance they let him go imo


As they should.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:31 am    Post subject:

KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
audioaxes wrote:
KeepItRealOrElse wrote:
KD: 5% , just off the rumors this Summer. don't believe it really

Kyrie: 12% Will be tough to go back on his word, but the situation in Boston could turn toxic and he could leave, I think we'd be high on his list if he left

Klay: 10%

Kawhi: 35%

Middleton: 10% smaltown guys usually stay, imo.

Tobias: 20%. moving across the hall isn't as tough as moving across the country. real good shot imo, if we want him

Butler: maybe a chance if he wants to leave Phil. He's an East Coast guy though

Klay is 100% given if Warriors refuse to pay him Max... all depends if Durant leaves or not

second tier guys like Middleton and Tobias are pretty much locks if Lakers go all in and overpay for them

I'd bump up KD way more than 5%. Theres very few other places he can leave the Warriors to with a max contract and be immediate contenders plus big market exposure


I think they choose Klay over Dray if it comes down to that. Tiny tiny chance they let him go imo

i think its a given they let Dray walk. But even then I still could see the Warriors cheaping out of paying Klay max after Durant and Steph are supermaxed.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:43 pm    Post subject:

Kemba, Butler, Vuc are probably our best chances. Kyrie and KL are probably in the next group. KD probably goes to the Knicks. Harris I think stays in Philly, Middleton probably with the Bucks again too.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:17 am    Post subject:

Magic didn't leave for nothing. He knew he was not getting anyone, and without having a FO hired and showing super positive signs, I just don't see us getting anyone.

If we are able to sign a good coach and a great POBO, then a lot could change.

Depends how it all plays out and what the perception of our operational decision making is, after it happens.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:07 pm    Post subject:

Durant listed his Malibu house for sale today, so unless he is selling it to buy in Brentwood, it doesn't seem like he's considering the Lakers or Clippers...
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