Projecting Our Young Core (BI, Lonzo, Kuz, Hart)
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:02 am    Post subject: Projecting Our Young Core (BI, Lonzo, Kuz, Hart)

I brought this up in the BI thread, but I think it's a nice way to sort of categorize expectations for our young core.

BI
1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Maybe.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Dubious.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.

Lonzo
1. Is he a bust? No.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Maybe.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? No.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.

Kuz
1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Maybe.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? No.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.

Hart
1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? No.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? No.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:05 am    Post subject:

So using it for others:
Ben Simmons

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.

Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.

Fultz

1. Is he a bust? Possibly.
2. Is he a starter level player? Not sure.
3. Is he an all star level player? No.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? No.
5. Is he an MVP level player? No.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:13 am    Post subject:

While I appreciate what you are trying to do, those categories are not as clear as they seem. If Ball never improves at all from where he is right now, is he a bust? Some people would say yes, some people would say no. It all depends on what you consider to be a bust.

What is a starter level player? All of these guys are actually starters. There are much worse starters in the league. I think you mean whether they are a player who could start for anyone who had an opening at their position. Or maybe you are setting a lower bar.

Above that level, it's all speculation. Ingram is the only one of them who strikes me as an all-star level talent, but I could imagine any of them having a career year and making the roster. Lesser players have done just that.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:15 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
While I appreciate what you are trying to do, those categories are not as clear as they seem. If Ball never improves at all from where he is right now, is he a bust? Some people would say yes, some people would say no. It all depends on what you consider to be a bust.

What is a starter level player? All of these guys are actually starters. There are much worse starters in the league. I think you mean whether they are a player who could start for anyone who had an opening at their position. Or maybe you are setting a lower bar.

Above that level, it's all speculation. Ingram is the only one of them who strikes me as an all-star level talent, but I could imagine any of them having a career year and making the roster. Lesser players have done just that.


Thanks. I just piggy backed off a comment I made in the BI thread so I haven't put THAT much thought into it.

But I think you can tell early on with a few people whether they will be a bust (think Anthony Bennett), starter level (could start on a majority of teams).

All-star is whether they could get chosen for it (combo of fan/coach votes for reserves).

All-NBA is NBA media, right?

MVP is self-explanatory as is a HOF-caliber player.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:31 am    Post subject:

All-NBA, MVP, and HoF are just too speculative (HoF may be easier than MVP, by the way). Ben Simmons could absolutely turn out to be an MVP and make the HoF. I have a harder time seeing that with Tatum.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:36 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
All-NBA, MVP, and HoF are just too speculative (HoF may be easier than MVP, by the way). Ben Simmons could absolutely turn out to be an MVP and make the HoF. I have a harder time seeing that with Tatum.


I'm just trying to have a better discussion starting point in looking at our young guys. Sad to say it but I don't think we have an all-NBA level player in any of our young core guys. That will also likely factor into any AD (other) trades too. When players are hotter off the draft press, the unknowns may actually have been in the Lakers side leverage-wise. The more they play the more the longer term projections become easier to see.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:36 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
So using it for others:
Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.


Honestly, what's the basis for this? Aside from his hot streak against two teams with (bleep) wing defense in the playoffs last year, what has he done to earn himself all NBA and MVP level potential? Dude's averaging 16 points on a team that barely has a better record than the Lakers in the East. On the Celtics alone, Kyrie, Marcus Morris, and Marcus Smart are clearly better players, and Al Horford might be as well.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:38 am    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So using it for others:
Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.


Honestly, what's the basis for this? Aside from his hot streak against two teams with (bleep) wing defense in the playoffs last year, what has he done to earn himself all NBA and MVP level potential? Dude's averaging 16 points on a team that barely has a better record than the Lakers in the East. On the Celtics alone, Kyrie, Marcus Morris, and Marcus Smart are clearly better players, and Al Horford might be as well.


Playoffs and playing without Kyrie/Hayward.

I may be overvaluing, but I think my view is probably a solid consensus view of him around the league, so much so that Boston wouldn't include him in an AD trade while we probably offer everyone but LBJ.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:39 am    Post subject:

Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:41 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So using it for others:
Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.


Honestly, what's the basis for this? Aside from his hot streak against two teams with (bleep) wing defense in the playoffs last year, what has he done to earn himself all NBA and MVP level potential? Dude's averaging 16 points on a team that barely has a better record than the Lakers in the East. On the Celtics alone, Kyrie, Marcus Morris, and Marcus Smart are clearly better players, and Al Horford might be as well.


Playoffs and playing without Kyrie/Hayward.

I may be overvaluing, but I think my view is probably a solid consensus view of him around the league, so much so that Boston wouldn't include him in an AD trade while we probably offer everyone but LBJ.

The positive consensus view around the league has a lot to do with the fact that he's not a Laker. Last night Ingram had 17 on 8-21 and the nation is trending about how terrible he is. Tatum goes 8 points on 3-11 on national TV, and no one gives a (bleep).
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:42 am    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So using it for others:
Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.


Honestly, what's the basis for this? Aside from his hot streak against two teams with (bleep) wing defense in the playoffs last year, what has he done to earn himself all NBA and MVP level potential? Dude's averaging 16 points on a team that barely has a better record than the Lakers in the East. On the Celtics alone, Kyrie, Marcus Morris, and Marcus Smart are clearly better players, and Al Horford might be as well.


Playoffs and playing without Kyrie/Hayward.

I may be overvaluing, but I think my view is probably a solid consensus view of him around the league, so much so that Boston wouldn't include him in an AD trade while we probably offer everyone but LBJ.

The positive consensus view around the league has a lot to do with the fact that he's not a Laker. Last night Ingram had 17 on 8-21 and the nation is trending about how terrible he is. Tatum goes 8 points on 3-11 on national TV, and no one gives a (bleep).


You don't think our fanbase overvalues our own young core (just like every other fanbase overvalue theirs)?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:43 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.

Adapting to Lebron playing your exact same position is way bigger of an adjustment. Tatum's still playing his same position, with more minutes than last season. Ingram's playing SG for the first time in his career, and Lebron is way more ball dominant than Kyrie and Hayward.

Bottom line is there's always an excuse for the Celtics, but the same doesn't apply to the Lakers for some reason.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:45 am    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.

Adapting to Lebron playing your exact same position is way bigger of an adjustment. Tatum's still playing his same position, with more minutes than last season. Ingram's playing SG for the first time in his career, and Lebron is way more ball dominant than Kyrie and Hayward.

Bottom line is there's always an excuse for the Celtics, but the same doesn't apply to the Lakers for some reason.


Seems we are making a lot of the excuses, no?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:46 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:46 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
So using it for others:
Tatum

1. Is he a bust? Absolutely not.
2. Is he a starter level player? Yes.
3. Is he an all star level player? Yes.
4. Is he an all NBA level player? Yes.
5. Is he an MVP level player? Yes.
6. Is he a HOF level player? No.


Honestly, what's the basis for this? Aside from his hot streak against two teams with (bleep) wing defense in the playoffs last year, what has he done to earn himself all NBA and MVP level potential? Dude's averaging 16 points on a team that barely has a better record than the Lakers in the East. On the Celtics alone, Kyrie, Marcus Morris, and Marcus Smart are clearly better players, and Al Horford might be as well.


Playoffs and playing without Kyrie/Hayward.

I may be overvaluing, but I think my view is probably a solid consensus view of him around the league, so much so that Boston wouldn't include him in an AD trade while we probably offer everyone but LBJ.

The positive consensus view around the league has a lot to do with the fact that he's not a Laker. Last night Ingram had 17 on 8-21 and the nation is trending about how terrible he is. Tatum goes 8 points on 3-11 on national TV, and no one gives a (bleep).


You don't think our fanbase overvalues our own young core (just like every other fanbase overvalue theirs)?

Honestly, I think we have a terrible spoiled fanbase who hates their own players if we're not on a championship level. We're so used to championships, so we always want to ship a scapegoat out of town as if we'd be better with addition by subtraction. We hated DLo and Randle out of town. We hated Lou Will out of town. And now they're on other teams, and we still can't learn and wish we kept them instead and shipped out who we kept.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:47 am    Post subject:

al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:48 am    Post subject:

If you want to make a case that BI's trade value is higher than Tatum's, then so be it. But if I'm the Pels, I'm pretty sure I take Tatum (and he has 1 more additional year on his rookie deal too).

This isn't a BI vs. all thread, but noteworthy that it's taking that turn.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:49 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.

The Celtics have one legit all star in Kyrie. They might have more make the team this year because the East is so bad.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:54 am    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.

The Celtics have one legit all star in Kyrie. They might have more make the team this year because the East is so bad.


LBJ's usage rate is slightly higher than Kyrie's.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:58 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.

The Celtics have one legit all star in Kyrie. They might have more make the team this year because the East is so bad.


LBJ's usage rate is slightly higher than Kyrie's.

And BI's usage rate is even less slightly higher than Tatum's
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:02 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.

The Celtics have one legit all star in Kyrie. They might have more make the team this year because the East is so bad.


LBJ's usage rate is slightly higher than Kyrie's.

Also, here's the formula for usage rate:

Usage Rate Formula=100*[(Team Minutes)/(5*(Player Minutes))]*[(Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts)+(Turnovers)/[(Team Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Team Free Throw Attempts)+Team Turnovers)]

It doesn't factor in assists and playmaking. It has nothing to do with how ball dominant a player is, it's about how often he shoots and turns the ball over
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm    Post subject:

Anyways, this really isn't just about BI.

I think Lonzo is probably the most difficult to gauge. While I think he's a starter, I can buy the argument that some think he's not a bust but not a starter material on other teams. I think he's a 2nd contract candidate where he will figure out his stuff after his first post-rookie deal is done. Right now showing positive defense and passing, but a lot is left to be desired offensively otherwise.

Hart has settled into a role player/starter range, but doubt he ever makes an all star game.

Kuz, upon further thought, is not an all star level player but I think he may get to that Rashard Lewis level where he may sneak into 1 all star (Shard got 2) game in his peak.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:04 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
If you want to make a case that BI's trade value is higher than Tatum's, then so be it. But if I'm the Pels, I'm pretty sure I take Tatum (and he has 1 more additional year on his rookie deal too).

This isn't a BI vs. all thread, but noteworthy that it's taking that turn.

And if you want to talk about trade value, I'd make the argument that literally every single player in a Brad Stevens system has massively inflated trade value. That's why Danny Ainge keeps fleecing fools, and they keep falling for it by trading with him. Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, and Isaiah Thomas say hi
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:05 pm    Post subject:

awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
awntawn wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
al242 wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Tatum, we like to say that our young core has to adapt to LBJ.

That is true. But Tatum has to adapt to Kyrie AND Hayward and is on a deeper team. I think the Celts depth is a bit too much as it's affecting guys like Rozier, Tatum and Brown.


Neither of these players are in the stratosphere of LBJ, in fact Hayward has been horrible and it is questionable if he is even a starter in this league at this present time.


What's their usage rate?

How many all stars do they have right now?

Same issues we'd see with our young core and 2 max FAs would be here. We just have one all star.

The Celtics have one legit all star in Kyrie. They might have more make the team this year because the East is so bad.


LBJ's usage rate is slightly higher than Kyrie's.

Also, here's the formula for usage rate:

Usage Rate Formula=100*[(Team Minutes)/(5*(Player Minutes))]*[(Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Free Throw Attempts)+(Turnovers)/[(Team Field Goal Attempts)+0.44*(Team Free Throw Attempts)+Team Turnovers)]

It doesn't factor in assists and playmaking. It has nothing to do with how ball dominant a player is, it's about how often he shoots and turns the ball over


If BI was on the Celts, would he be having higher statistical outputs or around Tatum's range? And vice versa?
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:07 pm    Post subject:

Lonzo with the "not" a bust category.
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