Projecting Our Young Core (BI, Lonzo, Kuz, Hart)
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:13 am    Post subject:

Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:15 am    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
Kuzma's improved at passing and defense... but he's deteriorated offensively because he can't shoot the three.

If he can get back to last year's shooting from distance, then he becomes a borderline all star talent... however, if this is the true Kuzma, then he's super dependent on others for scoring, especially LBJ.

He's like a catch and shoot guy who can only score at the rim right now.

I wouldn't mistake a guy whose greatest talent is making runs to the rim with three of the best playmakers in the league... with someone who can create for himself.

But I'm still hoping that first season shooting wasn't a fluke.


His shooting may be a fluke but he’s always liable to get hot and force the defense to respect and close out on him. That opens up his best skill, attacking close outs, and makes him a dangerous offensive player who doesn’t need the ball much to be effective. He’s a great cutter, but I don’t think that’s his best attribute as it isn’t always reliable against good defenses. Attacking close outs is, especially with LeBron.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:23 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
Sina wrote:
Kuzma has improved a lot this year. Other than his efforts, playing with Bron helps too. On the contrary, BI and Ball need to adjust to play with Bron thought. Have said that, i’m very impressed with Kuzma. He is playing at star level right now. Interested how good he could be.


What has he improved at?


His 2-pt% has improved pretty dramatically. It's frankly a miracle his TS% is actually higher than last season's given how godawful his 3-ball has been.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:26 am    Post subject:

I imagine it has been a challenge this season for all the young core. First adapting to Lebron and then adapting after Lebron went down with an injury.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:40 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Sina wrote:
Kuzma has improved a lot this year. Other than his efforts, playing with Bron helps too. On the contrary, BI and Ball need to adjust to play with Bron thought. Have said that, i’m very impressed with Kuzma. He is playing at star level right now. Interested how good he could be.


What has he improved at?


His 2-pt% has improved pretty dramatically. It's frankly a miracle his TS% is actually higher than last season's given how godawful his 3-ball has been.


Kuzma went from scoring 64% to 71% at the rim.
However his three went from almost 37% to 30%.

Ingram went from 67% to 64% at the rim.
His three has gone from 39% to 29%

The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse.

Always keep in mind that only 35% of BI's shots are assisted while Kuzma's percentage has risen to 61%

Kuzma deserves a lot of credit for those shots because of his runs... but I also wouldn't overrate one player over the other when the difference is that pronounced.

I think if we had a stretch 5... both BI and Kuzma's numbers at the rim go even higher.

The sad thing is, if they both shot from distance like last season... they'd spread the floor for each other.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:43 am    Post subject:

Quote:
The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse.


Could it be b/c Kuz is more active off ball and that as a result LBJ likes to find him?

I'm not sure it would be different if BI was more active off ball instead of resetting and sizing up whenever he got the ball with LBJ.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:45 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse.


Could it be b/c Kuz is more active off ball and that as a result LBJ likes to find him?

I'm not sure it would be different if BI was more active off ball instead of resetting and sizing up whenever he got the ball with LBJ.


Hence, why I wrote "Kuzma deserves a lot of credit for those shots because of his runs."
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:46 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse.


Could it be b/c Kuz is more active off ball and that as a result LBJ likes to find him?

I'm not sure it would be different if BI was more active off ball instead of resetting and sizing up whenever he got the ball with LBJ.


That and his ability to attack close outs(because teams actually close out on him) but SM seems convinced LeBron just likes Kuz better.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:47 am    Post subject:

I think BI showed some good off ball movement in the Dallas game and that can be incorporated when LBJ is back. I don't think LBJ dislikes BI (he has been very positive about him in the media).
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:49 am    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Sina wrote:
Kuzma has improved a lot this year. Other than his efforts, playing with Bron helps too. On the contrary, BI and Ball need to adjust to play with Bron thought. Have said that, i’m very impressed with Kuzma. He is playing at star level right now. Interested how good he could be.


What has he improved at?


His 2-pt% has improved pretty dramatically. It's frankly a miracle his TS% is actually higher than last season's given how godawful his 3-ball has been.


Kuzma went from scoring 64% to 71% at the rim.
However his three went from almost 37% to 30%.

Ingram went from 67% to 64% at the rim.
His three has gone from 39% to 29%

The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse
.

Always keep in mind that only 35% of BI's shots are assisted while Kuzma's percentage has risen to 61%

Kuzma deserves a lot of credit for those shots because of his runs... but I also wouldn't overrate one player over the other when the difference is that pronounced.

I think if we had a stretch 5... both BI and Kuzma's numbers at the rim go even higher.

The sad thing is, if they both shot from distance like last season... they'd spread the floor for each other.


Dear Lord. I think you actually believe that.

One's an off the ball player, the other isn't.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:52 am    Post subject:

BigGameHames wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Quote:
The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse.


Could it be b/c Kuz is more active off ball and that as a result LBJ likes to find him?

I'm not sure it would be different if BI was more active off ball instead of resetting and sizing up whenever he got the ball with LBJ.


That and his ability to attack close outs(because teams actually close out on him) but SM seems convinced LeBron just likes Kuz better.


I think most players would like Kuzma better, as he seems better at finishing at the rim at this point.

My point still remains that BI is playing out of position at the two and is relegated to often being the only person who can create is own shot out on the perimeter... but people mistake that for lack of ability.

Last season Ingram was a better finisher than Kyle.

I don't take anything away from Kuzma's runs and finishing skills... I'm saying don't take Ingram's TS out of context when he's doing the heavier lifting on offense.

If you assigned Kuzma to stand outside and create his own shot, and let Ingram make the cuts to the rim... Ingram wouldn't be as effective as Kuzma at that task... but Kuzma would be even worse trying to create by himself.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:55 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Sina wrote:
Kuzma has improved a lot this year. Other than his efforts, playing with Bron helps too. On the contrary, BI and Ball need to adjust to play with Bron thought. Have said that, i’m very impressed with Kuzma. He is playing at star level right now. Interested how good he could be.


What has he improved at?


His 2-pt% has improved pretty dramatically. It's frankly a miracle his TS% is actually higher than last season's given how godawful his 3-ball has been.


Kuzma went from scoring 64% to 71% at the rim.
However his three went from almost 37% to 30%.

Ingram went from 67% to 64% at the rim.
His three has gone from 39% to 29%

The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse
.

Always keep in mind that only 35% of BI's shots are assisted while Kuzma's percentage has risen to 61%

Kuzma deserves a lot of credit for those shots because of his runs... but I also wouldn't overrate one player over the other when the difference is that pronounced.

I think if we had a stretch 5... both BI and Kuzma's numbers at the rim go even higher.

The sad thing is, if they both shot from distance like last season... they'd spread the floor for each other.


Dear Lord. I think you actually believe that.

One's an off the ball player, the other isn't.


Kuzma's assisted scoring numbers went from 53% to 61%

Ingram's numbers stayed about the same going from 36% to 35%
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:56 am    Post subject:

Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:58 am    Post subject:

Sentient Meat wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
Sentient Meat wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
venturalakersfan wrote:
Sina wrote:
Kuzma has improved a lot this year. Other than his efforts, playing with Bron helps too. On the contrary, BI and Ball need to adjust to play with Bron thought. Have said that, i’m very impressed with Kuzma. He is playing at star level right now. Interested how good he could be.


What has he improved at?


His 2-pt% has improved pretty dramatically. It's frankly a miracle his TS% is actually higher than last season's given how godawful his 3-ball has been.


Kuzma went from scoring 64% to 71% at the rim.
However his three went from almost 37% to 30%.

Ingram went from 67% to 64% at the rim.
His three has gone from 39% to 29%

The main reason Kuzma's 2 pt% at the rim has improved is because he's LBJ's favored target.

Meanwhile BI is forced to create his own shot so his TS% is worse
.

Always keep in mind that only 35% of BI's shots are assisted while Kuzma's percentage has risen to 61%

Kuzma deserves a lot of credit for those shots because of his runs... but I also wouldn't overrate one player over the other when the difference is that pronounced.

I think if we had a stretch 5... both BI and Kuzma's numbers at the rim go even higher.

The sad thing is, if they both shot from distance like last season... they'd spread the floor for each other.


Dear Lord. I think you actually believe that.

One's an off the ball player, the other isn't.


Kuzma's assisted scoring numbers went from 53% to 61%

Ingram's numbers stayed about the same going from 36% to 35%


No one is forcing Ingram not to move off the ball.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:59 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


I think Kuzma can be effective in a transition situation where the defense isn't set.

But if he has the ball in his hands, I don't see him breaking down the defense much in a half court offense.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:03 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Kuzma's assisted scoring numbers went from 53% to 61%

Ingram's numbers stayed about the same going from 36% to 35%


But that only shows that Kuz has always played this style (finishing plays off of assists). So he's doing what he is best at.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:03 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:


No one is forcing Ingram not to move off the ball.


I've said three times now, that Kuzma earned those points with his runs.

I'm explaining why one's TS% is higher and it isn't as simple as one is a superior player.

It's like a diver or gymnast who performs a high difficulty routine but fails versus one who smartly performs a safe routine and doesn't.

Does it mean the high difficulty gymnast is a worse gymnast?

No, but maybe it means the low difficulty gymnast might be smarter.

Or it might mean one athlete was told to do a higher difficulty routine while the other was told to do a simpler one.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:19 am    Post subject:

I think when you are projecting young core players you have to take into consideration what would there role be on a championship contender. Who would be a starter and who would have a bench role. Starting on a contender is a lot different than starting on a non playoff / lottery team. For me I really don't know. The sample size is too small right now.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:34 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:

If Kuz's stats this year are on par with last year, I would consider that an improvement though. We added Lebron James who takes more shots than all but 8 players in the league whereas last year he was our #1 option on offense. .


Last year, I don't think we had a #1 option. Kuz averaged 13.5 shots a game, but he had seven guys average from 10.7 to 13.4. It was an offense that really spread the shots around.

This year, Kuz is averaging 14.9 shots per game, so Lebron's arrival didn't take any shots away from him.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:43 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)



I don't think this is a reasonable way to measure consistency. His having more 20 point games is also just a function of getting more shots and averaging 2 more points a game, in part because the offense is faster.

His effective field goal percentage is down this year. So he's not doing more with the chances he's getting than he did last year; he's just getting more chances.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:46 am    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)


I don't think this is a reasonable way to measure consistency. His having more 20 point games is also just a function of getting more shots and averaging 2 more points a game, in part because the offense is faster.

His effective field goal percentage is down this year. So he's not doing more with the chances he's getting than he did last year; he's just getting more chances.


Consistent was a bad word choice. What I was getting at, is that it appears to me he has elevated his baseline. If all else were equal, a player who sees a 10.3% increase in attempts, would see a 10.3% increase in point production.

With Kuzma, we're seeing a 10.3% increase in attempts and a 13.0% increase in point production. And let's be real, yes, his eFG% is down but it went from .527 to .522 which is effectively flat.

Even with a 10.3% increase in attempts, the number of games in which he is scoring over 20 has increased by 38%.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:42 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)


I don't think this is a reasonable way to measure consistency. His having more 20 point games is also just a function of getting more shots and averaging 2 more points a game, in part because the offense is faster.

His effective field goal percentage is down this year. So he's not doing more with the chances he's getting than he did last year; he's just getting more chances.


Consistent was a bad word choice. What I was getting at, is that it appears to me he has elevated his baseline. If all else were equal, a player who sees a 10.3% increase in attempts, would see a 10.3% increase in point production.

With Kuzma, we're seeing a 10.3% increase in attempts and a 13.0% increase in point production. And let's be real, yes, his eFG% is down but it went from .527 to .522 which is effectively flat.

Even with a 10.3% increase in attempts, the number of games in which he is scoring over 20 has increased by 38%.



Your use of stats is all wrong. His FG attempts are up 10.3% but his production has gone down slightly. (Your error is not factoring in FT and 3-point attempts, which is what eFG% does).

Connecting an increase in FG attempts to an increase in 20-point games, in a vaccuum, doesn't tell you anything.

I appreciate what you're trying to do, but the way you keep using stats doesn't make any sense.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:45 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)


I don't think this is a reasonable way to measure consistency. His having more 20 point games is also just a function of getting more shots and averaging 2 more points a game, in part because the offense is faster.

His effective field goal percentage is down this year. So he's not doing more with the chances he's getting than he did last year; he's just getting more chances.


Consistent was a bad word choice. What I was getting at, is that it appears to me he has elevated his baseline. If all else were equal, a player who sees a 10.3% increase in attempts, would see a 10.3% increase in point production.

With Kuzma, we're seeing a 10.3% increase in attempts and a 13.0% increase in point production. And let's be real, yes, his eFG% is down but it went from .527 to .522 which is effectively flat.

Even with a 10.3% increase in attempts, the number of games in which he is scoring over 20 has increased by 38%.



Your use of stats is all wrong. His FG attempts are up 10.3% but his production has gone down slightly. (Your error is not factoring in FT and 3-point attempts, which is what eFG% does).

Connecting an increase in FG attempts to an increase in 20-point games, in a vaccuum, doesn't tell you anything.

I appreciate what you're trying to do, but the way you keep using stats doesn't make any sense.


Wrong. eFG does NOT include FT attempts. That would be TS percentage. EFG adjusts for 3pt shooting.

This all depends on how we define production. His TS is up (slightly). His FG% is up quite a bit. His 3pt shooting is down a lot.

I don't agree his production has gone down. His points per possession is UP.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:47 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
activeverb wrote:

His improvement in a lot of these categories are pretty minimal. Overall, I'd say his stats to date this year are in par with last year - no better, no worse.

So far, he seems like a guy who will have an occasional scoring explosion, but when you add everything up his overall performance is that of a pretty average NBA starter


All things considered, for a 27th pick that's an excellent return on investment.



Sure, he's done really well for a 27th pick. But that's not relevant in terms of whether or how much he'll improve from this point forward. And pretty soon he'll be off his rookie deal; at which point, his draft position won't matter at all.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:52 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Another thing I do think Kuzma has improved on is his consistency. Last year, he had 25 games scoring 20 pts or more in 77 games. (32%)

This year, he already has 17 games of scoring 20 pts or more in just 39 played games. (44%)


I don't think this is a reasonable way to measure consistency. His having more 20 point games is also just a function of getting more shots and averaging 2 more points a game, in part because the offense is faster.

His effective field goal percentage is down this year. So he's not doing more with the chances he's getting than he did last year; he's just getting more chances.


Consistent was a bad word choice. What I was getting at, is that it appears to me he has elevated his baseline. If all else were equal, a player who sees a 10.3% increase in attempts, would see a 10.3% increase in point production.

With Kuzma, we're seeing a 10.3% increase in attempts and a 13.0% increase in point production. And let's be real, yes, his eFG% is down but it went from .527 to .522 which is effectively flat.

Even with a 10.3% increase in attempts, the number of games in which he is scoring over 20 has increased by 38%.



Your use of stats is all wrong. His FG attempts are up 10.3% but his production has gone down slightly. (Your error is not factoring in FT and 3-point attempts, which is what eFG% does).

Connecting an increase in FG attempts to an increase in 20-point games, in a vaccuum, doesn't tell you anything.

I appreciate what you're trying to do, but the way you keep using stats doesn't make any sense.


Wrong. eFG does NOT include FT attempts. That would be TS percentage. EFG adjusts for 3pt shooting.

This all depends on how we define production. His TS is up (slightly). His FG% is up quite a bit. His 3pt shooting is down a lot.

I don't agree his production has gone down. His points per possession is UP.


Your right about efg%.

I don't see any significant production increase from him. His tiny rise in points per possession has been in tandem with his rise in shot attempts. His rebounding down. His assists are up.

I don't see any reasonable way to define production that wouldn't show his doing pretty much the same this year as he did last year.

Anyway, this has pretty much exhausted how much interest I have in talking about Kuz's stats for the week,
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