Projecting Our Young Core (BI, Lonzo, Kuz, Hart)
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:55 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
activeverb wrote:

His improvement in a lot of these categories are pretty minimal. Overall, I'd say his stats to date this year are in par with last year - no better, no worse.

So far, he seems like a guy who will have an occasional scoring explosion, but when you add everything up his overall performance is that of a pretty average NBA starter


All things considered, for a 27th pick that's an excellent return on investment.



Sure, he's done really well for a 27th pick. But that's not relevant in terms of whether or how much he'll improve from this point forward. And pretty soon he'll be off his rookie deal; at which point, his draft position won't matter at all.


It matters. He has 2.5 more years of being on a ridiculously cheap rookie deal, which he will outperform.

This is when we are assembling an expensive team via FA so having a near-starter level production player for under 2m is what makes him valuable. That's why he's house money to me now.

But I do agree we are talking about two different things. My focus is on the cap space value, and I think you are commenting about his development (or lack thereof) aside from his cap benefits.
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BIgetsus17
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 12:57 pm    Post subject:

Last 7 Games BI averages 20 points per game. Moreover his rebounding is better during this stretch so that tells me that he is improving in many areas.

Not only BI, Lonzo is doing stuff nobody thought he is capable of because he had a bad scoring rookie season. We should relax as fans man. We are worse than Soccer fans like Madrid or Bayern Munich Fans.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:07 pm    Post subject:

activeverb wrote:
Your right about efg%.

I don't see any significant production increase from him. His tiny rise in points per possession has been in tandem with his rise in shot attempts. His rebounding down. His assists are up.

I don't see any reasonable way to define production that wouldn't show his doing pretty much the same this year as he did last year.

Anyway, this has pretty much exhausted how much interest I have in talking about Kuz's stats for the week,


Of course I'm right about eFG. Ironic coming from someone who tried to tell me about misuse of stats.

There's a pretty easy way to measure production, at least as it relates to scoring. We can look at points per 100 possessions. That will account for pace and changes in FG attempts.

Even without the 3-ball dropping, Kuz is up to 25.8 PPG per 100 possessions from 24.7. That is "up" and to a higher degree than as you stated, his eFG is down although I'll be honest and say yeah it's not a significant improvement.

So in case you think it is because of shot attempts, look no further than Klay Thompson. Klay is taking 18.8 FGA this season, a career high good for 29.8 points per 100 possessions.

However, two seasons ago, he took fewer FGA per game yet had 31.6 points per 100 possessions produced.
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markjay
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:15 pm    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Your right about efg%.

I don't see any significant production increase from him. His tiny rise in points per possession has been in tandem with his rise in shot attempts. His rebounding down. His assists are up.

I don't see any reasonable way to define production that wouldn't show his doing pretty much the same this year as he did last year.

Anyway, this has pretty much exhausted how much interest I have in talking about Kuz's stats for the week,


Of course I'm right about eFG. Ironic coming from someone who tried to tell me about misuse of stats.

There's a pretty easy way to measure production, at least as it relates to scoring. We can look at points per 100 possessions. That will account for pace and changes in FG attempts.

Even without the 3-ball dropping, Kuz is up to 25.8 PPG per 100 possessions from 24.7. That is "up" and to a higher degree than as you stated, his eFG is down although I'll be honest and say yeah it's not a significant improvement.

So in case you think it is because of shot attempts, look no further than Klay Thompson. Klay is taking 18.8 FGA this season, a career high good for 29.8 points per 100 possessions.

However, two seasons ago, he took fewer FGA per game yet had 31.6 points per 100 possessions produced.


Kuz's eFG% is slightly down, but his ts% is slightly up -- and I consider that a more valid measure of scoring efficiency. It is now at .555, which is solid.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:30 pm    Post subject:

markjay wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
activeverb wrote:
Your right about efg%.

I don't see any significant production increase from him. His tiny rise in points per possession has been in tandem with his rise in shot attempts. His rebounding down. His assists are up.

I don't see any reasonable way to define production that wouldn't show his doing pretty much the same this year as he did last year.

Anyway, this has pretty much exhausted how much interest I have in talking about Kuz's stats for the week,


Of course I'm right about eFG. Ironic coming from someone who tried to tell me about misuse of stats.

There's a pretty easy way to measure production, at least as it relates to scoring. We can look at points per 100 possessions. That will account for pace and changes in FG attempts.

Even without the 3-ball dropping, Kuz is up to 25.8 PPG per 100 possessions from 24.7. That is "up" and to a higher degree than as you stated, his eFG is down although I'll be honest and say yeah it's not a significant improvement.

So in case you think it is because of shot attempts, look no further than Klay Thompson. Klay is taking 18.8 FGA this season, a career high good for 29.8 points per 100 possessions.

However, two seasons ago, he took fewer FGA per game yet had 31.6 points per 100 possessions produced.


Kuz's eFG% is slightly down, but his ts% is slightly up -- and I consider that a more valid measure of scoring efficiency. It is now at .555, which is solid.


Sure, but not necessarily shooting efficiency. For that, I'd rather use eFG%.

As an example:

James Harden (this year)
eFG: .543
TS: .619

Klay Thompson (last year when he wasn't struggling):
eFG: .585
TS: .598

Sometimes, I want to see who is able to make buckets vs make points.
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activeverb
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:53 pm    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
activeverb wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
activeverb wrote:

His improvement in a lot of these categories are pretty minimal. Overall, I'd say his stats to date this year are in par with last year - no better, no worse.

So far, he seems like a guy who will have an occasional scoring explosion, but when you add everything up his overall performance is that of a pretty average NBA starter


All things considered, for a 27th pick that's an excellent return on investment.



Sure, he's done really well for a 27th pick. But that's not relevant in terms of whether or how much he'll improve from this point forward. And pretty soon he'll be off his rookie deal; at which point, his draft position won't matter at all.


It matters. He has 2.5 more years of being on a ridiculously cheap rookie deal, which he will outperform.

This is when we are assembling an expensive team via FA so having a near-starter level production player for under 2m is what makes him valuable. That's why he's house money to me now.

But I do agree we are talking about two different things. My focus is on the cap space value, and I think you are commenting about his development (or lack thereof) aside from his cap benefits.


Agreed. They are different things but it's good to have guys on rookie contracts performing well especially if you're gunning for free agents. And if we land someone like Durant we can also then trade Kuz afterwards
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PauPau
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:06 pm    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


Down in effeciency and wayyyyyyy down in frequency.
He's had to adapt. When you look at last years numbers he was pretty much elite at iso ppp....as a rookie!

Why we haven't constructed more offense through that? No idea.
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:24 pm    Post subject:

PauPau wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


Down in effeciency and wayyyyyyy down in frequency.
He's had to adapt. When you look at last years numbers he was pretty much elite at iso ppp....as a rookie!

Why we haven't constructed more offense through that? No idea.


I'm guessing even with elite Iso PPP it's still way less efficient than other playtypes that should get more frequency anyway.
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PauPau
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:43 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PauPau wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


Down in effeciency and wayyyyyyy down in frequency.
He's had to adapt. When you look at last years numbers he was pretty much elite at iso ppp....as a rookie!

Why we haven't constructed more offense through that? No idea.


I'm guessing even with elite Iso PPP it's still way less efficient than other playtypes that should get more frequency anyway.


Vert true, but with a shot clock some iso is inevitable it then becomes effecient to have your good iso players execute that playtype more.
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Mike@LG
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:28 pm    Post subject:

PauPau wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PauPau wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


Down in effeciency and wayyyyyyy down in frequency.
He's had to adapt. When you look at last years numbers he was pretty much elite at iso ppp....as a rookie!

Why we haven't constructed more offense through that? No idea.


I'm guessing even with elite Iso PPP it's still way less efficient than other playtypes that should get more frequency anyway.


Vert true, but with a shot clock some iso is inevitable it then becomes effecient to have your good iso players execute that playtype more.


Right... but then LeBron takes those possessions...
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PauPau
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:26 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PauPau wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PauPau wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
Did NBA.com remove playtype data? I want to see what Kuzma's numbers are in isolation.


Down in effeciency and wayyyyyyy down in frequency.
He's had to adapt. When you look at last years numbers he was pretty much elite at iso ppp....as a rookie!

Why we haven't constructed more offense through that? No idea.


I'm guessing even with elite Iso PPP it's still way less efficient than other playtypes that should get more frequency anyway.


Vert true, but with a shot clock some iso is inevitable it then becomes effecient to have your good iso players execute that playtype more.


Right... but then LeBron takes those possessions...


So does BI, one being easier to nudge than the other
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