We had three number two picks in three straight drafts.
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splashmtn
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:11 am    Post subject: Re: We had three number two picks in three straight drafts.

bandiger wrote:
1ngr4m wrote:
We (bleep) all three picks up, and the next draft after our streak ends the number two pick ends up averaging 19/6/5 as a rookie, out playing any season by any of our lottery picks since Kobe left.

Back luck or bad management?


Both.
its not both. its bad luck well it will be if they dont pan out in the next 2 years. because a lot of these guys dont pan out in the first 2 to 3 years.


thats not bad management. their were no RED flags on either of these guys.
This stuff is in their heads. There is no way of seeing that if you havent seen them get all stuck in their heads before at the high school or college level. this is why the draft is a crap shoot even if you pick up a lebron james level guy. what if his mental is easily shattered? there is NO way of you knowing that unless he has shown this in the past. and odds are he hasnt because he's always been bigger stronger faster and smarter than his comp well until now when he plays in the nba.
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anth2000
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:22 am    Post subject:

I agree that all three #2 picks were not great choices.
I just wished the FO would have moved Ingram and Lonzo when their stock was rising high. Right now, teams would hose us because these dudes are sucking. I mean, with Lebron out, Lonzo especially, looks like a high school, not a pro player. I sure hope he doesn't plan on "breaking all of Magic's records" soon.
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FreakofNature
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:31 am    Post subject:

"What if".....We got the number 1's? What a World of difference that "would" have made. The gap of those 3 #1's to our 3 2#s is quite a gap. Even if we had picked the other available picks just behind the #2's we went with....
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:34 am    Post subject:

DA1 wrote:
OC Lakerfan wrote:
PICKnPOP wrote:
DA1 wrote:
DLo is starting to look like the player he was thought to be coming out of OSU.

Letting him go was a mistake.


Yeah he is starting to become a real problem smh he was my favorite young player and I think trading him had nothing to do with basketball and everything to do with rubbing the wrong people wrong in LA.

I think he’s going to haunt us for years

Btw we could have had Kuzma and Russel smh


It depends if we net a max guy with the cap space created with his trade iincluding Timothy. He doesn’t play great defense though.


The stats beg to differ...

https://twitter.com/OTG_NICK/status/1081055529059958784

https://twitter.com/T1m_NBA/status/1071197667311513600


No. The stats bear it out. Russell is still not a good defender.

DBPM: -1.0 (career -1.4)
DRtg: 112
DRPM: -.79 (ranked 53rd among PG, but would be 64th if they had him as a SG)
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:36 am    Post subject:

FreakofNature wrote:
"What if".....We got the number 1's? What a World of difference that "would" have made. The gap of those 3 #1's to our 3 2#s is quite a gap. Even if we had picked the other available picks just behind the #2's we went with....


So many Laker fans were against completely tanking and wanted us to be "competitive". If we had Simmons and Towns, we would be talking about title contention right now.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:39 am    Post subject:

Threatt_Level wrote:
FreakofNature wrote:
"What if".....We got the number 1's? What a World of difference that "would" have made. The gap of those 3 #1's to our 3 2#s is quite a gap. Even if we had picked the other available picks just behind the #2's we went with....


So many Laker fans were against completely tanking and wanted us to be "competitive". If we had Simmons and Towns, we would be talking about title contention right now.


Yup, without doubt! Those damn ping pong balls...
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:41 am    Post subject:

PICKnPOP wrote:
DA1 wrote:
DLo is starting to look like the player he was thought to be coming out of OSU.

Letting him go was a mistake.


Yeah he is starting to become a real problem smh he was my favorite young player and I think trading him had nothing to do with basketball and everything to do with rubbing the wrong people wrong in LA.

I think he’s going to haunt us for years

Btw we could have had Kuzma and Russel smh


He's a free agent this year. We can sign him if we want, then he won't haunt us for years.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:49 am    Post subject:

FreakofNature wrote:
Threatt_Level wrote:
FreakofNature wrote:
"What if".....We got the number 1's? What a World of difference that "would" have made. The gap of those 3 #1's to our 3 2#s is quite a gap. Even if we had picked the other available picks just behind the #2's we went with....


So many Laker fans were against completely tanking and wanted us to be "competitive". If we had Simmons and Towns, we would be talking about title contention right now.


Yup, without doubt! Those damn ping pong balls...


If we'd not signed (halfway) useful guys like Nick Young, Lou Will, Brandon Bass, and Roy Hibbert and just committed to filling out the roster with G Leaguers like the Sixers did, we could've taken our fate out of the hands of the ping pong balls.
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Bol
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:52 am    Post subject:

There are many teams that have high lottery picks year after year and never amount to anything. That's the problem with tanking. First you have to get lucky in the lottery, then you have to be lucky that it's a draft with legit all-star talent in it, then you have to be lucky in being able to guess which of the players will become that all-star talent, unless it's really obvious like Shaq. It's not shocking that we didn't get any obvious great players out of those picks, though I still think Lonzo could be really good if he puts his mind to it.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:26 am    Post subject:

Threatt_Level wrote:
FreakofNature wrote:
Threatt_Level wrote:
FreakofNature wrote:
"What if".....We got the number 1's? What a World of difference that "would" have made. The gap of those 3 #1's to our 3 2#s is quite a gap. Even if we had picked the other available picks just behind the #2's we went with....


So many Laker fans were against completely tanking and wanted us to be "competitive". If we had Simmons and Towns, we would be talking about title contention right now.


Yup, without doubt! Those damn ping pong balls...


If we'd not signed (halfway) useful guys like Nick Young, Lou Will, Brandon Bass, and Roy Hibbert and just committed to filling out the roster with G Leaguers like the Sixers did, we could've taken our fate out of the hands of the ping pong balls.


I always thought then, why go in 75% of the way? Go all in or just go for the best record you can get, no in between games... Well, all hope is not out the window...
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:43 am    Post subject:

Just for fun, I went back and pulled all the draftees from the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons. I sorted them by career VORP.

I also removed any players who have not met the following criteria:
- Minimum of HALF the seasons played per season average (so for 2015 players, that would be 140 games, for 2016 players that would be 100 games, and so on)
- Minimum of 20.0 MPG average over their career

I think we can safely assume any player who has not played in at least half of games in which they are eligible, and in those games, play at least 20 MPG, are ineligible for comparison. Here's what I got:

2015 Draftees - Career VORP (16 of 60 players eligible)
Karl-Anthony Towns
Myles Turner
Larry Nance
Josh Richardson
Willie Cauley-Stein
Kristaps Porzingis
D'Angelo Russell
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Justise Winslow
Frank Kaminsky
Devin Booker
Stanley Johnson
Andrew Harrison
Kelly Oubre
Jahlil Okafor
Emmanuel Mudiay

2016 Draftees - Career VORP (14 of 60 players eligible)
Ben Simmons
Pascal Siakam
Malcolm Brogdon
Buddy Hield
Jamal Murray
Caris LeVert
Domantas Sabonis
Kris Dunn
Taurean Waller-Prince
Denzel Valentine
Jaylen Brown
Marquese Chriss
Dragan Bender
Brandon Ingram
Tyler Ulis

2017 Draftees - Career VORP (17 of 60 players eligible)
Jayson Tatum
Donovan Mitchell
Lonzo Ball
John Collins
Jarrett Allen
Bam Adebayo
Josh Hart
OG Anunoby
Kyle Kuzma
Jonathan Isaac
Lauri Markkanen
Dennis Smith
Justin Jackson
De'Aaron Fox
Dillon Brooks
Frank Ntilikina
Josh Jackson
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Bol
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:56 am    Post subject:

Man, advanced stats really hate Ingram. But he has long arms, so yay.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:08 am    Post subject:

Bol wrote:
Man, advanced stats really hate Ingram. But he has long arms, so yay.


It's mostly his offense bringing him down. It's really bad. Of all of the drafted players in 2016, with a minimum of 20 MPG, here are his ranks on various advanced stats for all seasons since rookie year.

(Out of 16)
WS - 11th
PER - 13th
OWS - 13th
DWS - 8th
OBPM - 14th
DBPM - 11th
BPM - 13th
VORP - 14th
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The Juggernaut
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:15 am    Post subject:

The FO really messed up letting Randle go especially for nothing.
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Bol
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:16 am    Post subject:

ringfinger wrote:
Bol wrote:
Man, advanced stats really hate Ingram. But he has long arms, so yay.


It's mostly his offense bringing him down. It's really bad. Of all of the drafted players in 2016, with a minimum of 20 MPG, here are his ranks on various advanced stats for all seasons since rookie year.

(Out of 16)
WS - 11th
PER - 13th
OWS - 13th
DWS - 8th
OBPM - 14th
DBPM - 11th
BPM - 13th
VORP - 14th


That's honestly very sobering to read. And to make matters worse, it was an unusually weak draft class.
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Bard207
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:22 am    Post subject:

Quote:


2016 Draftees - Career VORP (14 of 60 players eligible)
Ben Simmons
Pascal Siakam
Malcolm Brogdon
Buddy Hield
Jamal Murray
Caris LeVert
Domantas Sabonis
Kris Dunn
Taurean Waller-Prince
Denzel Valentine
Jaylen Brown
Marquese Chriss *
Dragan Bender *
Brandon Ingram
Tyler Ulis


Below Chriss and Bender?
That is a bad place to be.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:22 am    Post subject:

Bol wrote:
ringfinger wrote:
Bol wrote:
Man, advanced stats really hate Ingram. But he has long arms, so yay.


It's mostly his offense bringing him down. It's really bad. Of all of the drafted players in 2016, with a minimum of 20 MPG, here are his ranks on various advanced stats for all seasons since rookie year.

(Out of 16)
WS - 11th
PER - 13th
OWS - 13th
DWS - 8th
OBPM - 14th
DBPM - 11th
BPM - 13th
VORP - 14th


That's honestly very sobering to read. And to make matters worse, it was an unusually weak draft class.


On the flip side though, if you take his worst ranking, 14th, that puts him as the 14th best player out of 60 that were drafted which makes him better than 77% of the players drafted.

If you take his best ranking, 8th, that puts him as the 8th best player making him better than 87% of the players drafted.

When you draft with a high pick, part of the benefit of that is you get a high downside even if you don't get to realize the upside.
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ringfinger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:24 am    Post subject:

Bard207 wrote:
Quote:


2016 Draftees - Career VORP (14 of 60 players eligible)
Ben Simmons
Pascal Siakam
Malcolm Brogdon
Buddy Hield
Jamal Murray
Caris LeVert
Domantas Sabonis
Kris Dunn
Taurean Waller-Prince
Denzel Valentine
Jaylen Brown
Marquese Chriss *
Dragan Bender *
Brandon Ingram
Tyler Ulis


Below Chriss and Bender?
That is a bad place to be.


Yeah. For VORP.

On PER and BPM, he's below Chriss and above Bender
On WS, he's above both
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sogood.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:36 am    Post subject:

We didn’t (bleep) up the DLO pick. We just (bleep) up when we traded him.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:39 am    Post subject:

Bol wrote:
Man, advanced stats really hate Ingram. But he has long arms, so yay.


The eye test hates him, too.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:42 am    Post subject:

sogood. wrote:
We didn’t (bleep) up the DLO pick. We just (bleep) up when we traded him.


No Kuzma. No Lebron. Take your pick.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:42 am    Post subject:

Randle and Russell only look good because Ingram and Lonzo are so bad/incapable on the offensive end. Nobody should be crying over either one of those two.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:47 am    Post subject:

AFireInside619 wrote:
sogood. wrote:
We didn’t (bleep) up the DLO pick. We just (bleep) up when we traded him.


No Kuzma. No Lebron. Take your pick.


More like no Hart and no KCP. KCP would be unnecessary with Russell still here, and Moz's salary could've been easily dumped with some future garbage pick with only 1 year left on his deal after this year. The Russell trade still doesn't make sense.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:51 am    Post subject:

PICKnPOP wrote:
Cutheon wrote:
We did not mess up with DLO, even with the benefit of hindsight. I sincerely doubt Porky would have fared very well here and he'd probably be just as injured. I still maintain that the jury is out on Zo/Ingram, although I'd probably prefer Jaylen Brown and Tatum (or Fox) at this point in time.


I get that logic, but it’s starting to look like we had a second star on the roster already in D’angelo Russel. Everything we want from Lonzo we already had in Russel and the sad part is that we could have had both smh.


Oh, I agree. Very much so. But i've spilled far too much internet ink on that topic. I've probably had 3 or 4 separate back-and-forths just with Yinoma commiserating about DLO's absence.
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PICKnPOP
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:58 am    Post subject:

Cutheon wrote:
PICKnPOP wrote:
Cutheon wrote:
We did not mess up with DLO, even with the benefit of hindsight. I sincerely doubt Porky would have fared very well here and he'd probably be just as injured. I still maintain that the jury is out on Zo/Ingram, although I'd probably prefer Jaylen Brown and Tatum (or Fox) at this point in time.


I get that logic, but it’s starting to look like we had a second star on the roster already in D’angelo Russel. Everything we want from Lonzo we already had in Russel and the sad part is that we could have had both smh.


Oh, I agree. Very much so. But i've spilled far too much internet ink on that topic. I've probably had 3 or 4 separate back-and-forths just with Yinoma commiserating about DLO's absence.


Yeah, it still hurts. Especially watching him really start to put it all together. He will be an all star in the east very soon.
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