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noahp45
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Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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 Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Kobesystem wrote: | Lakers have too many young players though on the roster.
Kuzma, Ingram, Ball, Hart, Wagner, #4 pick......
Team needs to learn how to trade high for once |
Thats what they should have. Time to move forward.
Gs had a bunch young dudes they bloomed
Philly, the bucs and Boston. All young teams that bloomed
Why can't Kuz,Ball Hart become a good team? |
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LKA
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Joined: 06 Oct 2018
Posts: 5181
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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| noahp45 wrote: | | Kobesystem wrote: | Lakers have too many young players though on the roster.
Kuzma, Ingram, Ball, Hart, Wagner, #4 pick......
Team needs to learn how to trade high for once |
Thats what they should have. Time to move forward.
Gs had a bunch young dudes they bloomed
Philly, the bucs and Boston. All young teams that bloomed
Why can't Kuz,Ball Hart become a good team? |
Because none of them are Giannis, Steph or Embiid. Can't even shoot a respectable % from the freethrow line |
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Pidge
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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I don't expect much more from Kuzma beyond his current level, but that's still a very useful player. Ingram and Ball have every chance to be significant players in playoff contention. Hart needs to settle, we need consistency from him more than anything. No idea about Wagner yet, needs to improve a lot, but I like him. Don't know how moving any of them right now could be interpreted as "trading high" though.
Trading that group away for a short-term max is nuts in my opinion. If we're trading for AD, it's at the deadline, not now.
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noahp45
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Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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Location: Oceanside Ca
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | | Kobesystem wrote: | Lakers have too many young players though on the roster.
Kuzma, Ingram, Ball, Hart, Wagner, #4 pick......
Team needs to learn how to trade high for once |
Thats what they should have. Time to move forward.
Gs had a bunch young dudes they bloomed
Philly, the bucs and Boston. All young teams that bloomed
Why can't Kuz,Ball Hart become a good team? |
Because none of them are Giannis, Steph or Embiid. Can't even shoot a respectable % from the freethrow line |
So they cant fix that? DeAndre Jordan proved that it can be fixed |
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noahp45
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
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Lakerchaq
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Would you trade lonzo for reddish? |
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LKA
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
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noahp45
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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| LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
True but he can shoot. Beautiful form and can defend |
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LKA
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Joined: 06 Oct 2018
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Location: Sin City
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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| noahp45 wrote: | | LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
True but he can shoot. Beautiful form and can defend |
I'm wary .. certain guys don't translate to shooters in the league
Ingram shot over 40% in college |
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LKA
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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My mind keeps flip flopping .. at first I was thinking Reddish or Hunter
Now I'm thinking Reddish or Garland |
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audioaxes
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
he has a long ways to go to get near Klay's shooting ability but I wouldnt put it out of possibility that his ceiling can reach that of a longer, stronger Klay without the threat of exploding for 40+ point games
another comp could be a Kris Middleton
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LKA
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Location: Sin City
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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| audioaxes wrote: | | LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
he has a long ways to go to get near Klay's shooting ability but I wouldnt put it out of possibility that his ceiling can reach that of a longer, stronger Klay without the threat of exploding for 40+ point games
another comp could be a Kris Middleton |
Middleton is a good one .. |
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LKA
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Middleton as his ceiling is good. |
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LakersForever123
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 2:02 pm Post subject: |
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| LKA wrote: | My mind keeps flip flopping .. at first I was thinking Reddish or Hunter
Now I'm thinking Reddish or Garland |
I do it too. I think both are good. Also, part of me thinks we should go after Sekou Doumbaya. |
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Jack's Room
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | | LKA wrote: | | noahp45 wrote: | Culver is Butler with out the attitude
Hunter is a more athletic Klay
Morant is a healthy D rose
White is a poor man's Harden |
Hunter is not Klay Thompson lmao
Keep in mind he's shooting that nice percentage you see on under 3 attempts per. |
True but he can shoot. Beautiful form and can defend |
I'm wary .. certain guys don't translate to shooters in the league
Ingram shot over 40% in college |
For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%. The reason for that is fairly simple: almost every variable can be controlled for as every player shoots the exact same unguarded shot at the exact same distance.
Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%.
Poor free throw shooting is a giant red flag for me. It's the reason I'm so low on Kevin Porter Jr. despite his aesthetically pleasing game and 41.2% 3PT numbers, he shot an awful 52.2% at the stripe. It's a small sample size in both cases, but it seems likely KPJ is not somehow an excellent long-distance shooter and a poor free throw shooter. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but it seems like a gamble for a guy who already has character concerns.
All of this to say, the best way to predict 3PT shooting in the NBA is to pay attention to free throw numbers and consistent shooting form. Jayson Tatum was disappointing from 3PT range at Duke (34.2%) but shot an impressive 84.9% from the line. Oddly enough, Cam Reddish is probably being underrated as a shooter for similar reasons: 33.3% 3PT and 77.2% FT. It's entirely possible that Reddish got caught in a bad sample size of shooting as he adjusted to a new team and level of talent. Buddy Hield was miserable as as a freshman at OU and his first 25 games in the NBA (36.8%/29.1%/86.7%). But he adjusted and his shooting numbers leveled out in both cases. Hield is shooting 44.6%/41.9%/87.4% through NBA three seasons. I don't think Reddish is a Hield-caliber shooter, but he's probably much better than what he showed his freshman year.
Private workouts and scrimmages should help weed out the bad shooters. There were well-sourced rumors that Josh Jackson shot miserably at his Lakers workout. Jackson was another poor free throw shooter (56.6%) with decent 3PT numbers (37.8%) but had a noticeably inconsistent and wonky shooting form in college. Despite his athletic gifts, it's no surprise that Jackson's been awful in the NBA through two seasons (41.5%/29.4%/65%). In fact, Nylon Calculus predicted Jackson would shoot 32% from 3PT range in the NBA before he was drafted. |
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LKA
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Joined: 06 Oct 2018
Posts: 5181
Location: Sin City
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 3:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Jack's Room wrote: | For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%. The reason for that is fairly simple: almost every variable can be controlled for as every player shoots the exact same unguarded shot at the exact same distance.
Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%.
Poor free throw shooting is a giant red flag for me. It's the reason I'm so low on Kevin Porter Jr. despite his aesthetically pleasing game and 41.2% 3PT numbers, he shot an awful 52.2% at the stripe. It's a small sample size in both cases, but it seems likely KPJ is not somehow an excellent long-distance shooter and a poor free throw shooter. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but it seems like a gamble for a guy who already has character concerns.
All of this to say, the best way to predict 3PT shooting in the NBA is to pay attention to free throw numbers and consistent shooting form. Jayson Tatum was disappointing from 3PT range at Duke (34.2%) but shot an impressive 84.9% from the line. Oddly enough, Cam Reddish is probably being underrated as a shooter for similar reasons: 33.3% 3PT and 77.2% FT. It's entirely possible that Reddish got caught in a bad sample size of shooting as he adjusted to a new team and level of talent. Buddy Hield was miserable as as a freshman at OU and his first 25 games in the NBA (36.8%/29.1%/86.7%). But he adjusted and his shooting numbers leveled out in both cases. Hield is shooting 44.6%/41.9%/87.4% through NBA three seasons. I don't think Reddish is a Hield-caliber shooter, but he's probably much better than what he showed his freshman year.
Private workouts and scrimmages should help weed out the bad shooters. There were well-sourced rumors that Josh Jackson shot miserably at his Lakers workout. Jackson was another poor free throw shooter (56.6%) with decent 3PT numbers (37.8%) but had a noticeably inconsistent and wonky shooting form in college. Despite his athletic gifts, it's no surprise that Jackson's been awful in the NBA through two seasons (41.5%/29.4%/65%). In fact, Nylon Calculus predicted Jackson would shoot 32% from 3PT range in the NBA before he was drafted. |
This was a great read thanks man. That's very true good shooters are always good freethrow shooters.
I know they're sleeping on Reddish who is my personal favorite prospect. Mainly because I feel his game will take off at the next level .. |
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LandsbergerRules
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Joined: 29 Aug 2004
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Location: The Other Perspective
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Jack's Room wrote: | | Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%. |
I wonder how rare Zo's steep dropoff at the line is historically. Seems completely out of the ordinary.
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joeblow
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Joined: 24 Nov 2008
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Of all the players likely available at #4, I would like to see us snag Hunter if we plan to keep whoever we get. I put a premium on defense, and he has the best offensive upside out of the players predicted to be available for us that can D up. |
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Jesusdelonla
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Joined: 24 Jan 2018
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Kyrie played only 11 games for Duke. for whatever its worth |
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PHILosopher
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Joined: 14 Jul 2014
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="LKA"] | Jack's Room wrote: | For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%. The reason for that is fairly simple: almost every variable can be controlled for as every player shoots the exact same unguarded shot at the exact same distance.
Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%.
Poor free throw shooting is a giant red flag for me. It's the reason I'm so low on Kevin Porter Jr. despite his aesthetically pleasing game and 41.2% 3PT numbers, he shot an awful 52.2% at the stripe. It's a small sample size in both cases, but it seems likely KPJ is not somehow an excellent long-distance shooter and a poor free throw shooter. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but it seems like a gamble for a guy who already has character concerns.
All of this to say, the best way to predict 3PT shooting in the NBA is to pay attention to free throw numbers and consistent shooting form. Jayson Tatum was disappointing from 3PT range at Duke (34.2%) but shot an impressive 84.9% from the line. Oddly enough, Cam Reddish is probably being underrated as a shooter for similar reasons: 33.3% 3PT and 77.2% FT. It's entirely possible that Reddish got caught in a bad sample size of shooting as he adjusted to a new team and level of talent. Buddy Hield was miserable as as a freshman at OU and his first 25 games in the NBA (36.8%/29.1%/86.7%). But he adjusted and his shooting numbers leveled out in both cases. Hield is shooting 44.6%/41.9%/87.4% through NBA three seasons. I don't think Reddish is a Hield-caliber shooter, but he's probably much better than what he showed his freshman year.
Private workouts and scrimmages should help weed out the bad shooters. There were well-sourced rumors that Josh Jackson shot miserably at his Lakers workout. Jackson was another poor free throw shooter (56.6%) with decent 3PT numbers (37.8%) but had a noticeably inconsistent and wonky shooting form in college. Despite his athletic gifts, it's no surprise that Jackson's been awful in the NBA through two seasons (41.5%/29.4%/65%). In fact, Nylon Calculus predicted Jackson would shoot 32% from 3PT range in the NBA before he was drafted. |
I read elsewhere that this is one of the reasons that Tyler Herro could be a sleeper in this draft. He's long, good height, athletic, ds up and his free throw percentages are in the mid 90s although 3p averages are in the mid 30s. I'm not saying we should take him with the 4th pick! But he has potential. |
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LakerLogic
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Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Posts: 17886
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height. |
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Jack's Room
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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| PHILosopher wrote: | | Jack's Room wrote: | For the past few years, Nylon Calculus has put forward a prediction formula for how college 3PT shooting translates to the NBA. With a few minor exceptions, they've been completely on the money within 1-3% on most every prospect. It turns out FT% is more correlated to NBA 3PT success than NCAA 3PT%. The reason for that is fairly simple: almost every variable can be controlled for as every player shoots the exact same unguarded shot at the exact same distance.
Ingram shot 68.2% from the line at Duke, which is almost exactly his NBA average: 66.2%. Lonzo shot 67.3% from the line at UCLA and has been even worse in the NBA: 43.7%. Hunter shot 77.3% in two years at Virginia (75.5% frosh/78.3% soph) which bodes well for his NBA future. As of February 10th, Synergy logged Hunter at 13/24 (54.2%) from NBA 3PT range. Obviously a tiny sample size, but it's another positive data point for him. The NBA 3PT numbers for Coby White 31/73 (42.1%) and Jarrett Culver 11/37 (29.7%) are also worth paying attention to as both are players in our drafting range. From the line, White finished the year at 80% while Culver shot 70.7%.
Poor free throw shooting is a giant red flag for me. It's the reason I'm so low on Kevin Porter Jr. despite his aesthetically pleasing game and 41.2% 3PT numbers, he shot an awful 52.2% at the stripe. It's a small sample size in both cases, but it seems likely KPJ is not somehow an excellent long-distance shooter and a poor free throw shooter. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but it seems like a gamble for a guy who already has character concerns.
All of this to say, the best way to predict 3PT shooting in the NBA is to pay attention to free throw numbers and consistent shooting form. Jayson Tatum was disappointing from 3PT range at Duke (34.2%) but shot an impressive 84.9% from the line. Oddly enough, Cam Reddish is probably being underrated as a shooter for similar reasons: 33.3% 3PT and 77.2% FT. It's entirely possible that Reddish got caught in a bad sample size of shooting as he adjusted to a new team and level of talent. Buddy Hield was miserable as as a freshman at OU and his first 25 games in the NBA (36.8%/29.1%/86.7%). But he adjusted and his shooting numbers leveled out in both cases. Hield is shooting 44.6%/41.9%/87.4% through NBA three seasons. I don't think Reddish is a Hield-caliber shooter, but he's probably much better than what he showed his freshman year.
Private workouts and scrimmages should help weed out the bad shooters. There were well-sourced rumors that Josh Jackson shot miserably at his Lakers workout. Jackson was another poor free throw shooter (56.6%) with decent 3PT numbers (37.8%) but had a noticeably inconsistent and wonky shooting form in college. Despite his athletic gifts, it's no surprise that Jackson's been awful in the NBA through two seasons (41.5%/29.4%/65%). In fact, Nylon Calculus predicted Jackson would shoot 32% from 3PT range in the NBA before he was drafted. |
I read elsewhere that this is one of the reasons that Tyler Herro could be a sleeper in this draft. He's long, good height, athletic, ds up and his free throw percentages are in the mid 90s although 3p averages are in the mid 30s. I'm not saying we should take him with the 4th pick! But he has potential. |
Herro actually has a negative length (6'6 in shoes, 6'3.25" wingspan) which isn't a great indicator However, unlike other shooters like Nik Stauskas or Svi Mykhailiuk, Herro did post better defensive numbers in college (steal%, DWS, Drtg, DBPM). He's the kind of guy you pray is a capable team defender, so you can keep his shooting ability on the floor. |
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PHILosopher
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 5:03 pm Post subject: |
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| LakerLogic wrote: | | Tyler Herro has a shorter wingspan than his height. |
Okay so scratch the long part. Watching him play this year he looked like Kentucky's best perimeter defender. But yeah short wingspan. |
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Lakers_Jester
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Joined: 17 Sep 2012
Posts: 5366
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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| What u guys think r the odds we keep the pick? |
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Runway8
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Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Posts: 22839
Location: La Jolla, San Diego
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 7:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Lakers_Jester wrote: | | What u guys think r the odds we keep the pick? |
Very low if the Lakers had it their way. They wanna be players, movers and shakers, bring "Laker" basketball back to LA, whatever "Laker" basketball means. They are open for business, but the media will have you believe nobody is interested. |
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